What the national polls say about a 2020 Trump vs. Biden race.

[Mac1958]

For a Trump fan to make fun of Biden's -- or anyone's -- behaviors, is irony on a scale that is almost too enormous to imagine.

The intellectual myopia that is required for that. Just astonishing. Mind-blowing.

Political ideology absolutely blinds, doesn't it?
.

 

[MAGAman]

Biden cant win against Trump and wont be the nominee

Agreed.

Democrats won't nominate an old white guy. They'd have nothing to run on.

 

[MAGAman]

I don't know if this matters, but the polls were actually not far off.

They were issued based on human votes, not electoral votes.

They predicted a narrow Hillary win in popular votes, and that's what happened.

No....

That's not what they said.

 

[Mac1958]

I don't know if this matters, but the polls were actually not far off.

They were issued based on human votes, not electoral votes.

They predicted a narrow Hillary win in popular votes, and that's what happened.

No....

That's not what they said.

All you have to do is examine how close the popular votes were in a few states that turned the EC.
.

 

[The Original Tree]

BIDEN

IN

A

LANDSLIDE

LMAO

 

[The Original Tree]

Seriously Biden would be an even weaker and more effeminate president than Obama.
Obama took it up the ass from terrorists all over the world and then got on his knees and sucked Al Queda, ISIS, Iran and Russia's Cocks.

Biden will not only be as bad as Obama on Foreign Policy, he will be an even bigger disaster for The Economy.

 

[Fang]

Interesting. A good rebuttal would be a poll showing Trump beating Biden in 2020. I've not seen any yet.

A good rebuttal? Biden has even declared yet, much less even won his party's nomination. When that happens get back to us.

 

[kyzr]

Betting Odds Are Predicting a Democratic President in 2020 <g>
Vegas has the current odds for 2020 as:
Trump +200
Harris +500
Beto +800
Biden +800
Bernie +1000

So Trump is twice as likely to win as Harris and 4x as likely to win as Biden. (5x as likely as Bernie)

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Were these the same pollsters
that had Hillary in the lead against Trump?

Remember, the national polls said Hillary would win and she did win the popular vote which is what the national polls were trying to determine. 90% of the time, the popular vote winner wins the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote, but lost by very narrow margins in 3 states which cost her the electoral college. It was a fluke and it won't happen in 2020.

It is most likely that the winner of the popular vote in 2020 will win the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote in the United States.

Remember, the national polls said Hillary would win and she did win the popular vote which is what the national polls were trying to determine. 90% of the time, the popular vote winner wins the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote, but lost by very narrow margins in 3 states which cost her the electoral college. It was a fluke and it won't happen in 2020.

It is most likely that the winner of the popular vote in 2020 will win the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote in the United States.

McCain lost to Obama by 9 million votes
Romney lost to Obama by 5 million votes

Hillary spent twice as much as Trump
Had a 72% chance of winning
and won the popular vote by only 3 million votes

The polls not only had Hillary winning,
they had her winning in a landslide...
3 million is not a landslide

Nope, the polls had her winning by 3%, she ended up winning by 2%. That is pretty close. Point is also the national polls said she would win and she did win in the popular vote which is what nation polls are looking at.

90% of the time, the Winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote. There for Trump is not likely to win in 2020 since the odds are that the popular vote winner will be the electoral college winner.

 

[U2Edge]

Interesting. A good rebuttal would be a poll showing Trump beating Biden in 2020. I've not seen any yet.

A better rebuttal is the history of polling, and Bidens history of losing.

The history of polling shows that polling is very accurate in determining the winner of the popular vote. 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college. Biden has yet to be the Democrats nominee for President. But given how popular the Obama administration was and still is among Democrats, Democrats are more likely than not to have Biden as their nominee in 2020.

 

[Frannie]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

There is no such poll, because no one takes this question seriously as of yet

 

[U2Edge]

Biden 2020 go ahead pin your hopes on that fool

He was elected and re-elected Vice President. Served 8 years as Vice President. Democrats obviously like him and so does most of the United States.

 

[U2Edge]

I don't know if this matters, but the polls were actually not far off.

They were issued based on human votes, not electoral votes.

They predicted a narrow Hillary win in popular votes, and that's what happened.
.

EXACTLY! Plus, 90% of the time, the winner of the popular vote is the winner of the electoral college. Trump got lucky in 2016. He won't be able to count on such luck in 2020. If Trump can't win the popular vote in 2020, he will not be re-elected President.

 

[U2Edge]

Interesting. A good rebuttal would be a poll showing Trump beating Biden in 2020. I've not seen any yet.

A good rebuttal? Biden has even declared yet, much less even won his party's nomination. When that happens get back to us.

What I didn't show from the polling data is that all of Biden's democratic competitors also BEAT Trump, but by smaller margins.

 

[Crixus]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

The polls are split between Hillary Clinton winning and … Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide


Clinton now leads Donald Trump in national polling averages by about 7 points, with every recent live interview poll showing her up by between 4 and 12 points.

She continues to hold on to solid leads in a series of states that would put her over the 270 electoral votes she needs to win, and she seems to have taken the lead in even most of the swing states she doesn’t need (like Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada).



New poll shows we're 'starting to hear the faint rumblings of a Hillary Clinton landslide'

A poll from Quinnipiac University released on Thursday gave Hillary Clinton a massive advantage over her Republican counterpart, Donald Trump, just 75 days before November's election.

The poll put Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, at 51% and Trump, the Republican nominee, at 41% in a head-to-head matchup.



Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?

There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support. With few exceptions, the final round of public polling showed Clinton with a lead of 1 to 7 percentage points in the national popular vote. State-level polling was more variable, but there were few instances where polls overstated Trump’s support.

 

[BluesLegend]

Biden 2020 go ahead pin your hopes on that fool

He was elected and re-elected Vice President. Served 8 years as Vice President. Democrats obviously like him and so does most of the United States.

 

[kyzr]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Were these the same pollsters
that had Hillary in the lead against Trump?

Remember, the national polls said Hillary would win and she did win the popular vote which is what the national polls were trying to determine. 90% of the time, the popular vote winner wins the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote, but lost by very narrow margins in 3 states which cost her the electoral college. It was a fluke and it won't happen in 2020.

It is most likely that the winner of the popular vote in 2020 will win the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote in the United States.

Remember, the national polls said Hillary would win and she did win the popular vote which is what the national polls were trying to determine. 90% of the time, the popular vote winner wins the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote, but lost by very narrow margins in 3 states which cost her the electoral college. It was a fluke and it won't happen in 2020.

It is most likely that the winner of the popular vote in 2020 will win the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote in the United States.

McCain lost to Obama by 9 million votes
Romney lost to Obama by 5 million votes

Hillary spent twice as much as Trump
Had a 72% chance of winning
and won the popular vote by only 3 million votes

The polls not only had Hillary winning,
they had her winning in a landslide...
3 million is not a landslide

Nope, the polls had her winning by 3%, she ended up winning by 2%. That is pretty close. Point is also the national polls said she would win and she did win in the popular vote which is what nation polls are looking at.

90% of the time, the Winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote. There for Trump is not likely to win in 2020 since the odds are that the popular vote winner will be the electoral college winner.

Watch this video, Hillary had a 95% probability of winning. Total bullshit. Your spin that the polls only track the popular vote is misleading. CNN had Hillary winning her blue wall states, FL, NC, and many more that Trump actually won, so the MSM and polls were total bullshit in 2016. The 3% popular vote prediction vs 2% actual means that the polls need to factor in the CA and NY effects, that's all.

 

[Polishprince]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

If Creepy Joe were to be nominated, he would have to explain his plagiarism, his racist lies about Delaware 711's, etc. Trump will schlong his sorry ass royally.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

The polls are split between Hillary Clinton winning and … Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide


Clinton now leads Donald Trump in national polling averages by about 7 points, with every recent live interview poll showing her up by between 4 and 12 points.

She continues to hold on to solid leads in a series of states that would put her over the 270 electoral votes she needs to win, and she seems to have taken the lead in even most of the swing states she doesn’t need (like Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada).



New poll shows we're 'starting to hear the faint rumblings of a Hillary Clinton landslide'

A poll from Quinnipiac University released on Thursday gave Hillary Clinton a massive advantage over her Republican counterpart, Donald Trump, just 75 days before November's election.

The poll put Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, at 51% and Trump, the Republican nominee, at 41% in a head-to-head matchup.



Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark

How could the polls have been so wrong about the state of the election?

There is a great deal of speculation but no clear answers as to the cause of the disconnect, but there is one point of agreement: Across the board, polls underestimated Trump’s level of support. With few exceptions, the final round of public polling showed Clinton with a lead of 1 to 7 percentage points in the national popular vote. State-level polling was more variable, but there were few instances where polls overstated Trump’s support.

The national polls said Clinton would win the popular vote. Guess what, she did. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote. Your not winning the electoral college without winning the popular vote in all likelihood. Unless there is a successful third party run to split the anti-Trump vote, Trump is going home on January 20, 2021.

 

[U2Edge]

Here is all the national polling data I could find on potential Trump vs. Biden race in 2020 starting from the latest poll going back in time.

February 16, 2019 - Emerson Poll - Biden 55% Trump 45% - Biden +10

January 22, 2019 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 41% - Biden +12

June 13, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 39% - Biden +14

March 27, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 39% - Biden +17

February 14, 2018 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

January 23, 2018 - CNN Poll - Biden 57% Trump 40% - Biden +17

December 14, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

October 31, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 56% Trump 38% - Biden +18

October 16, 2017 - Emerson Poll - Biden 51% Trump 42% - Biden +9

September 28, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 53% Trump 40% - Biden +13

August 23, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 51% Trump 39% - Biden +12

July 18, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 39% - Biden +15

June 12, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 41% - Biden +13

May 16, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

April 20, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14

March 30, 2017 - PPP Poll - Biden 54% Trump 40% - Biden +14


When you average the margin of victory in the 16 polls, Biden beats Trump on average by 13.5 points, just 6 points less from a total overwhelming landslide when it comes to electoral Presidential politics.

Trumps percentages in these head to head races, around 40%, match his average approval rating over the past two years in the GALLUP poll.

Were these the same pollsters
that had Hillary in the lead against Trump?

Remember, the national polls said Hillary would win and she did win the popular vote which is what the national polls were trying to determine. 90% of the time, the popular vote winner wins the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote, but lost by very narrow margins in 3 states which cost her the electoral college. It was a fluke and it won't happen in 2020.

It is most likely that the winner of the popular vote in 2020 will win the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote in the United States.

Remember, the national polls said Hillary would win and she did win the popular vote which is what the national polls were trying to determine. 90% of the time, the popular vote winner wins the electoral college. Hillary won the popular vote, but lost by very narrow margins in 3 states which cost her the electoral college. It was a fluke and it won't happen in 2020.

It is most likely that the winner of the popular vote in 2020 will win the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote in the United States.

McCain lost to Obama by 9 million votes
Romney lost to Obama by 5 million votes

Hillary spent twice as much as Trump
Had a 72% chance of winning
and won the popular vote by only 3 million votes

The polls not only had Hillary winning,
they had her winning in a landslide...
3 million is not a landslide

Nope, the polls had her winning by 3%, she ended up winning by 2%. That is pretty close. Point is also the national polls said she would win and she did win in the popular vote which is what nation polls are looking at.

90% of the time, the Winner of the popular vote wins the electoral college. Trump has not shown he can win the popular vote. There for Trump is not likely to win in 2020 since the odds are that the popular vote winner will be the electoral college winner.

Watch this video, Hillary had a 95% probability of winning. Total bullshit. Your spin that the polls only track the popular vote is misleading. CNN had Hillary winning her blue wall states, FL, NC, and many more that Trump actually won, so the MSM and polls were total bullshit in 2016. The 3% popular vote prediction vs 2% actual means that the polls need to factor in the CA and NY effects, that's all.

The national polls predicted Hillary would win the popular vote. They were right.