What should America expect with the upcoming assessments on the Iraq surge strategy?

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by JimofPennsylvan, Sep 5, 2007.

  1. JimofPennsylvan
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    JimofPennsylvan VIP Member

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    We are approaching a critical time for our country on Iraq with all the upcoming reports on Iraq due in September. And we have already seen some clear mistakes by our leaders on this subject and lets hope we don’t see much more. Top American politicians have either directly or indirectly stated Prime Minister Maliki should go, he hasn’t succeeded in securing passage of the critically important political reconciliation legislation so he should be removed and someone else should be put in to try anew. This is wrong for several reasons. First, if you look at the details of the efforts Prime Minister Maliki has made he has made a great effort to pass this legislation, his staff has tried to work with leadership of the different sects to draft legislation, his cabinet has made proposals and he has tried to get the parliament to act; Maliki isn’t the problem, the problem is that the leadership of the major sects in Iraq won’t make the needed concessions to pass the legislation. Secondly, a significant hurdle in passing reconciliation legislation is that many of the different factions in Iraq think the American government is behind the content of these pieces of legislation and they believe the American’s will sacrifice the Iraqi people’s interest for the benefit of the American people’s interest, and this call for the Prime Minister’s removal just reinforces these beliefs. Thirdly, like all peoples, the Iraqi people don’t want foreign governments interfering in internal political matters of Iraq, they consider such interference violations of the Iraqi people’s sovereignty; and these “remove Maliki” actions by U.S. politicians are viewed by Iraqis as clear interference.

    Unfortunately, knowing U.S. politicians, this could be just the tip of the iceberg in regard to interference in Iraq’s internal politics. You could begin to hear American politicians call for replacing Iraq’s cabinet and/or parliament. There could be calls for new popular elections in Iraq. American politicians could call for splitting up the country of Iraq, move all the Iraqis of a particular sect into the same partition section of Iraq with the hope this would stem the violence. One could come-up with a multitude of structural changes in Iraq American politicians could come up with to fix Iraq. The bottom line is that this is all counter-productive; none of these ideas will be implemented, it is wrong and it violates the Iraqi peoples’ sovereignty. All American politicians need to remember not only are the Iraqi people watching what the U.S. government does over the next sixty days with Iraq but the whole world especially the Arab world is watching. Are the Americans going to behave like their often seen bad reputation where they are arrogant and just want to impose their will in another country or are they going to behave like a diplomatically smart nation that understands and respects the rights of foreign peoples.

    The political reconciliation legislation for Iraq has not been passed even though the U.S., coalition forces and many Iraqis have made heroic efforts to improve the security situation in Iraq to provide the climate for such reconciliation agreements. And there is a critically important lesson for America’s leader to gain from this reality. This lesson is no one can predict, estimate or the like when Iraqi leaders will in fact make these reconciliation agreements even though they are critically important to the security situation in Iraq because such agreements are needed to remove the motives on why many of the Iraqi militants fight; it may take three months to pass reconciliation legislation or it may take fifteen years to pass such legislation, no one can tell. The second part of the lesson is that the U.S. government has to produce an exit strategy for removing U.S. troops from Iraq that does not have any reliance on the reconciliation legislation being passed. To do anything less would make the American people and the American military in Iraq hostages to the political infighting of Iraqi politicians with their excessive sectarian loyalties, power grabbing, personal agendas, etc., the duty of members of Congress to their constituents mandates they not allow this dependency occur.

    A brief aside note, it should be extremely disappointing to people of good will throughout the world when they reflect on the poor commitment to the institution of democracy displayed by many Iraqi leaders. When political leaders in many developed democracies lose on passage of a piece of legislation, they say we will bring the legislation back again some time in the future and in future elections we will work to get people elected to pass this good legislation. Many Iraqi politicians as we have seen when they lose on passage of a piece of legislation they fold up their tent and go home so to speak; they boycott parliament, their cabinet members refuse to attend cabinet meetings, their appointees to ministry leadership positions resign. This throwing in the towel by Iraqi politicians just because they don’t get what they want on certain things has to change because it deprives the Iraqi people of their natural rights to a representative form of government because this throwing in the towel breaks down the government system and this abandonment of the system will likely result in a very stymied growth at best for the country of Iraq. Iraqi politicians have to keep in mind that legislation is not carved in stone if is not perfect initially it can be made so over time with future parliament’s actions. In this same vein, sect is of super importance today in Iraq it shapes almost everything in Iraqi politics; but probably one-hundred years from now it won’t, probably one-hundred years from now Iraqis of different sects will trust one another much more than Iraqis of different sects do today. If Iraqi politicians can’t agree on legislation fairly dealing with Iraq’s natural resources that shouldn’t mean they can’t work together in parliament on how to get all Iraqis electricity or work together in parliament how to stop corruption so foreign business can invest in Iraq and create jobs for Iraqis, etc..

    There is another supplemental Iraq War funding bill that will be needed to be passed soon and will probably be presented to Congress by October 1, 2007. The White House got a pass on the last supplemental Iraq War funding bill passed earlier this year, there will be no more such passes for the White House. For this supplemental to pass there will have to be guarantees to the American people that the strategy for Iraq will be changed that there is some type of exit strategy for Iraq in place including a time table for large-scale reduction of U.S. armed forces in Iraq. Frankly, I think most of the American people would like to see from the Iraq process that will take place in Washington over the next two months a date certain to be determined when the U.S. forces will hand over security tasks to Iraqi forces throughout Iraq, we’ve been hearing now for roughly three years that one day Iraq forces will be able to take over security tasks, how about announcing when that one day will be. The American government needs to take a page out of the British governments book, that is the book they used for the turning over security in the Basra area; they set a schedule when they are going to turn over security to the Iraqi forces they announce it to the Iraqi people and they implement it and they don’t lose resolve even though significant violence continues unabated. The Iraq campaign has had many stages, the current stage is the surge strategy stage and mid-September has been called the time to evaluate this surge strategy, and even if you call the surge strategy a magnificent success or a definite failure at this time I think it is clear to the majority of the Americans that there is only one more stage left in the Iraq campaign and that is the exit strategy stage. Now the only thing the Congress and the White House have to do is draft that strategy and implement it.
     
  2. Truthmatters
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    Truthmatters BANNED

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    But they have not gotten their oil profits law passed yet?




    http://tinyurl.com/27qt95
    This is not passed yet

    Coming 'in its own time'


    By Ben Lando
    UPI Energy Editor

    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, Sept. 4 (UPI) -- The question is simple on the third and final day of a major Iraqi energy conference where hundreds of hungry oil men and women broke bread with Iraq's industry chiefs, politicians and technocrats: When will Baghdad set the ground rules for the international oil community's long-awaited venture into the largest oil prize on Earth?

    The answer, evenly nuanced, is clear: A version of the Iraq oil and natural gas law was agreed to by most of Iraq's political leadership last week, and when Parliament resumes this week it will, possibly, debate the law and, perhaps, maybe vote on it soon.

    "They have a deal on the government level. Once it comes to the Parliament, it is the Parliament who has to have the say," Abdul-Hadi al-Hasani, deputy head of Parliament's Energy Committee, said on the sidelines of the summit, though he hasn't seen the latest version of the bill yet.

    "This is really a discussion taking place between all expertise, members of Parliament, economists, government officials," he said, adding the balance between Iraqi and investor interests isn't a quick resolve. "I wish it could have been passed yesterday. We need it. But simply it has to take its own time to come through maturely."

    The world's leading hydrocarbons firms attending the Iraq Oil, Gas, Petrochemical and Electricity Summit, organized by the London-based Iraq Development Program, held roundtables over the future of Iraq's oil while planning deals to venture into its sister sectors. Yet, from the minnows to the giants, service firms and equipment providers, they wait, with billions of dollars, for this law, which has numerous times before been just around the corner.

    Theirs aren't the only eyes on Iraq's oil, the third-largest proven reserves in the world, made more tempting when one considers how much of the country is unexplored. What has been found, usually close to the surface and sweet, is pumped and refined cheaper than anywhere else, except for the cost of producing amid war.

    Iraq's political parties have no easy task, however, thus the delay to decide how large a role the federal government will have in deciding the country's oil strategy and, pushed by the powerful oil unions, the extent private and foreign hands will be allowed a grab.

    President Bush arrived in Iraq Monday, just days before Parliament and the U.S. Congress return from recess, and with the upcoming war evaluation from top U.S. military and embassy officials looming.
     
  3. Bullypulpit
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    Bullypulpit Senior Member

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    It's simply going to be "Same Shit...Different Day" from Bush and his Administration. He's pulling the same bait-and-switch shit he did in the lead in to "The Surge". Wait for the report...Forestall debate "until after the reports are out"...Move the goal posts...Blow off the recommendations of the report, especially when they don't comport with what Bush wants.

    Go back and review Bush' s rhetoric in November of '06. He keeps pulling the same shit and that miserable bunch of cravens in Congress continue to let him get away with it.
     
  4. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    By November 2006 i think you mean the Baker-Hamilton Report. I do not think any immediate and substantial outcome of this new General's report within a specified time.
    By doing so it would be humiliating for US image. From "shock & awe"-strategy to forced "redeployment" (sounds better?) based on ongoings on Iraqi ground.

    So the story goes via Anbar rhetoric.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/03/world/middleeast/03cnd-prexy.html

    So let's hope Bush will next week announce major "progress" in Iraq, and on this USA can successively leave there. Make stretgies over where "redeployment" goes and let region find its destiny itself.
     
  5. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    Yes, once that damn oil law passes it's good for Turkey.
    Turkish state firms with Shell set up Joint Venture to produce Iraqi oil and gas in North Iraq.
    http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article1512222.ece

    Turkish state company BOTAS wants to develop 1 trillion m³ gas fields in Kerkük:
    http://www.arabianbusiness.com/499371-turkey-to-develop-iraqi-gas?ln=en

    Turkish private firm "Genel Enerji" producing oil between 46-50 API in KRG with 1 Billion barrel reserves:
    http://www.tpjd.org.tr/pdf/cd/TUROG...2007/3-Workshop/Orhan DURAN, GENEL ENERJI.pdf

    Turkish state firms with big cash do not make business with KRG, only Turkish private firms. And KRG already gave concessions for Exploration blocks. But Bagdad government not. State firms will make business with Bagdad government in Kerkük area, which is not KRG, but for that we must wait for oil law.
     
  6. trobinett
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    trobinett Senior Member

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    You guys slay me, you really "don't get it" do you?

    It's NOT about oil, it's NOT about money, it's Not about Party, it's NOT world opinion, it's NOT about starving children, it's NOT about Democracy, it's NOT about freedom, it's NOT about terror, or hunger, or living longer, it's about POWER!!!!

    Once you understand how power plays into the formula, the rest becomes crystal clear.:eusa_whistle:
     
  7. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    ... and it was not about Saddam nor about WMD's. It is about Power. Correct in theory. But now after 5 years, has US power increased or decreased? It's the same when you ask me, but moe problems have arisen for USA and other nations have won influence and in some parts slowly closed the gap to USA.
    Whole world has seen that with guerilla tactic US public is to be influenced, the president of that country jumping from Baker report to Petraeus report.
    Since invasion Russia for some time became 2nd largest oil exporter in World while oil price is somewehre at 70$ and incresed by 3 digit percent numbers since then.
    Russia is biggest natural gas exporter in world. In Europe natural gas price is coupled to oil price, so earnings from there also rise.
    What else? Iran... Iran raised its influence westwards near Mediteranean to Lebanon and Gaza via Iraq. And thinks whilest US forces are binded to Iraq objections against its nuclear programme are only rhetoric. US image in world is down, but that is nothing in near future power related.

    When we look with objectivity many things went fundamentally wrong.
    The best thing for US is to leave or reduce troops to levels where noone expects these number of troops will make nation-building. It is then troops for interest-secureing of Oil fields and pipelines around Basra. It's the only harbour and strategically important neighbouring other major oil exporters.
    Iraq's future is not rosy and what is going on there curently is just a charade waiting to explode completely.
     
  8. trobinett
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    trobinett Senior Member

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    Who the fuck are you, and what is YOUR agenda?
     

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