What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

[Jackson]

What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

When comparing the 2008 race, I looked up the demographics to determine what Obama needs to meet the standards he set for himself in 2008. We can decide if he is making the strides this time around and has a good shot of four more years.


1. In 2008, 65.3% of the black voters came out voted. That was an increase of 5% points from 2004. Is his African American base as energized this year with the high unemployment as it was in 2008?

2. The stunning black vote was driven in part by young voters which is in trouble in all demographics this year. The white young vote garnered 54% of his votes.

3. 96% of the black vote went for Obama, 43% of whites voted for him. With claims of a divisive administration , will Obama be able to receive the 43 % of the white vote this year?

4. 47% of white college graduates voted for Obama, 40% working class whites. The promises of jobs were a drawing card, but did he deliver for these voters? November will tell us.

5. Half of suburban voters voted for Obama. These are homeowners who have seen the value of their homes go down and some have lost their homes. Does that mean he has lost their vote?

6. 60% of moderates, 20% of conservatives voted for Obama in 2008 His policies must appear more radical now to some of those voters, perhaps even socialistic.

7. 51% of non union people voted for Obama in the last election, have they changed their minds after seeing the lip service to Wisconsin’s problems and waivers to unions in Obamacare?

It will be interesting to see if the president can keep his numbers as such a high level as they were in 2008, but he does have wiggle room. He won the last election 53% To McCain’s 47. But I don’t know how far he can wiggle.

Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in U.S. History - Pew Research Center

Demographics of How Groups Voted in the 2008 Presidential Election
Exit polls: How Obama won - David Paul Kuhn - POLITICO.com

 

[Sallow]

The elephant in the room is that Romney screwed the pooch with Women and Hispanics. Obama's numbers are actually much better with those 2 groups then when he ran against McCain. That's part of the reason that many states with a Republican legislator are targetting Black and Hispanic districts for voter suppression.

 

[Katzndogz]

The trend is against obama. He has been steadily losing support and needs to portray himself as ahead only by the use of using polling in smaller and smaller groups. He used to be ahead among women, now he's ahead with single women. He tries to pull it together by saying he's leading by double digits among women.

The best that democrats can legitimately say is that obama is doing well despite disastrous policies that would have anyone else way behind.

 

[beretta304]

The trend is against obama. He has been steadily losing support and needs to portray himself as ahead only by the use of using polling in smaller and smaller groups. He used to be ahead among women, now he's ahead with single women. He tries to pull it together by saying he's leading by double digits among women.

The best that democrats can legitimately say is that obama is doing well despite disastrous policies that would have anyone else way behind.

Slightly off topic:

Many say Obama has the edge in the debates. All Romney has to do is give the facts, remain calm and let Obama take his cheap shots. Voters already are moving away from Obiedopey and not even the debtaes will help him. It's Romney's to lose.

Some here keep citing polls. People haven't even come back from vacations nor have they paid much attnetion and still Obama can put Romney away. If Romney is so bad and Obama is the Messiah he should be blowing Romney's doors off being the incumbent.

Obama=Toast.

 

[Katzndogz]

Romney will cream obama in the debates. For one thing, people will be paying more attention to what obama says this time. Answers like he doesn't care if revenue to the government is reduced by higher taxes if it means more fairness in take home pay won't go unnoticed. Much of what obama said was overlooked or dismissed in the zeal to elect the first black president. That isn't going to happen this time. The bloom is off that little rose.

Why will Romney cream obama in the debates? Because obama doesn't know that he will be receiving more scrutiny this time around. He thinks nothing has changed. He will continue to make stupid statements imagining that every word that falls from his mouth is a pearl. He isn't running for office in this election, he's running for office in the last election. The one he won, he can't imagine that this is a new fight, he's going to do the same things he did last time, when all his missteps were overlooked or ignored.

obama's political story was already told in Whatever Happened To Baby Jane!

 

[antagon]

It is really difficult to lose an election as an incumbent US pres. I don't think people associate Obama with their jobs and lives like people on the distant right (or left). That center will probably endorse another 4.

 

[martybegan]

It is really difficult to lose an election as an incumbent US pres. I don't think people associate Obama with their jobs and lives like people on the distant right (or left). That center will probably endorse another 4.

The center is already waffling, if it wasnt Obama would have had over 270 EV's already locked up with +5% in the close ones, and only less than 5% in the gravy states over the 271 target.

It is really difficult but not impossible. One thing different than 1992 is that there is no Ross Perot to mish mash the numbers.

 

[IHBF]

He has to keep distracting from the economy, which is the most important issue.

If the focus turns to the economy, Obama loses.

 

[driveby]

The trend is against obama. He has been steadily losing support and needs to portray himself as ahead only by the use of using polling in smaller and smaller groups. He used to be ahead among women, now he's ahead with single women. He tries to pull it together by saying he's leading by double digits among women.

The best that democrats can legitimately say is that obama is doing well despite disastrous policies that would have anyone else way behind.

Yep, Obama/Biden 2012 " It could have been worse..."

 

[candycorn]

What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

Show up.

 

[martybegan]

What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

Show up.

If you are that confident, I will bet you $10 Romney wins, and you give me 50-1 odds.

Hell, I will set up a paypal account just for this occasion.

 

[kwc57]

What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

A freaking clue and a good record. He has neither.

 

[Jackson]

Romney will cream obama in the debates. For one thing, people will be paying more attention to what obama says this time. Answers like he doesn't care if revenue to the government is reduced by higher taxes if it means more fairness in take home pay won't go unnoticed. Much of what obama said was overlooked or dismissed in the zeal to elect the first black president. That isn't going to happen this time. The bloom is off that little rose.

Why will Romney cream obama in the debates? Because obama doesn't know that he will be receiving more scrutiny this time around. He thinks nothing has changed. He will continue to make stupid statements imagining that every word that falls from his mouth is a pearl. He isn't running for office in this election, he's running for office in the last election. The one he won, he can't imagine that this is a new fight, he's going to do the same things he did last time, when all his missteps were overlooked or ignored.

obama's political story was already told in Whatever Happened To Baby Jane!

I agree, Katz, people will be paying attention this time!

 

[AmyNation]

As I keep reading on here, this election is about the economy.

What he needs is jobs. If the next 3 months have positive job growth, he has a good chance of being reelected, if not, I think he will lose, but probably by as closely as Bush beat Gore.

 

[candycorn]

What Obama Needs to Win Re-election

Show up.

If you are that confident, I will bet you $10 Romney wins, and you give me 50-1 odds.

Hell, I will set up a paypal account just for this occasion.

I don't wager money. I will be happy to include you in a bet I have with Tea Party Salami. If Obama wins, you change your sig line to the following:

"All Hail President Obama, Your President, My President, Our President"

If The Governor Wins, I change my sig line to:

"All Hail President Romney, Your President, My President, Our President"

Under the terms I have with TPS, I will have to leave it there until 12/31/13. I'll only force you to leave it there until 1/1/13.

Font color Blue
Bold Type Face
Size 3 Font.

FYI: I also will be in exile until 1/1/13 as part of the terms.

Anyway...this is a no-cost way to stake your claim. Up to you.

 

[candycorn]

As I keep reading on here, this election is about the economy.

What he needs is jobs. If the next 3 months have positive job growth, he has a good chance of being reelected, if not, I think he will lose, but probably by as closely as Bush beat Gore.

I think the jobs issue is over-blown. I don't see it being a huge issue if it isn't already. If it gets above 10%; thats a psychological barrier that would likely wound the President's chances. I doubt it will matter much.

Obama has it in the bag.

 

[Eaglewings]

Romney will cream obama in the debates. For one thing, people will be paying more attention to what obama says this time. Answers like he doesn't care if revenue to the government is reduced by higher taxes if it means more fairness in take home pay won't go unnoticed. Much of what obama said was overlooked or dismissed in the zeal to elect the first black president. That isn't going to happen this time. The bloom is off that little rose.

Why will Romney cream obama in the debates? Because obama doesn't know that he will be receiving more scrutiny this time around. He thinks nothing has changed. He will continue to make stupid statements imagining that every word that falls from his mouth is a pearl. He isn't running for office in this election, he's running for office in the last election. The one he won, he can't imagine that this is a new fight, he's going to do the same things he did last time, when all his missteps were overlooked or ignored.

obama's political story was already told in Whatever Happened To Baby Jane!

I feel the opposite.. Romney's puppet strings may break and then he is on his own..It will be a disaster for him. Just like it has been every time he opens his mouth..
Looking forward to watching these debates very much so.

 

[kwc57]

As I keep reading on here, this election is about the economy.

What he needs is jobs. If the next 3 months have positive job growth, he has a good chance of being reelected, if not, I think he will lose, but probably by as closely as Bush beat Gore.

I think the jobs issue is over-blown. I don't see it being a huge issue if it isn't already. If it gets above 10%; thats a psychological barrier that would likely wound the President's chances. I doubt it will matter much.

Obama has it in the bag.

OH MY GAWD!!!

 

[Katzndogz]

Romney will cream obama in the debates. For one thing, people will be paying more attention to what obama says this time. Answers like he doesn't care if revenue to the government is reduced by higher taxes if it means more fairness in take home pay won't go unnoticed. Much of what obama said was overlooked or dismissed in the zeal to elect the first black president. That isn't going to happen this time. The bloom is off that little rose.

Why will Romney cream obama in the debates? Because obama doesn't know that he will be receiving more scrutiny this time around. He thinks nothing has changed. He will continue to make stupid statements imagining that every word that falls from his mouth is a pearl. He isn't running for office in this election, he's running for office in the last election. The one he won, he can't imagine that this is a new fight, he's going to do the same things he did last time, when all his missteps were overlooked or ignored.

obama's political story was already told in Whatever Happened To Baby Jane!

I feel the opposite.. Romney's puppet strings may break and then he is on his own..It will be a disaster for him. Just like it has been every time he opens his mouth..
Looking forward to watching these debates very much so.

The difference is, Romney can be coherent without a teleprompter, obama can't.

The jobs situation will not improve between now and election day, it might get worse, but can't improve because no one is hiring in advance of the election. There is no growth, nor expansion. Even China has dumped all of the stock in American investment waiting to see whether there will be a favorable or unfavorable business climate.

 

[kwc57]

As I keep reading on here, this election is about the economy.

What he needs is jobs. If the next 3 months have positive job growth, he has a good chance of being reelected, if not, I think he will lose, but probably by as closely as Bush beat Gore.

I think the jobs issue is over-blown. I don't see it being a huge issue if it isn't already. If it gets above 10%; thats a psychological barrier that would likely wound the President's chances. I doubt it will matter much.

Obama has it in the bag.

Poll: Angry with economy, youth vote to jump 50% | WashingtonExaminer.com

"Younger voters, angry with the lack of jobs and a stalled economy that's cut their entertainment budget and forced many to live with mom and dad, are expected to flock to the polls in even greater numbers than 2008 when President Obama's inspirational message of hope and change drew millions to the polls.

While 51 percent of Millennials age 18-29 voted in the 2008 election, 76 percent plan to vote this fall, according to a new poll from the influential group Generation Opportunity, a 50 percent jump.

While the group did not ask who younger voters prefer in the presidential race, they are inspired no more and are clearly driven by anger over the economy and the fact that they might not have lives as good as their parents..................."