What Obama Needs to Carry This Elections

[Jackson]

What Obama Needs to Carry This Elections

According to Pew Research, this is the totals*, Obama received in the 2008 election. He has to mirror or gain in some of these areas to win this election. What do you think his liklihood is?

White vote - 53%
Black vote - 95
Hispanic - 66

18-29 year olds - 66%
30-44 - 52
45-64 - 49
65+ - 45

Republican - 9%
Democrat - 89
Independent - 52

Conservatives - 20%
Moderates - 60
Liberals -88

Urban - 68%
Suburban - 50
Rural - 45

*based on exit polling data

I predict that Obama is in jeopardy of missing his points in the white, all age groups, Independents, Moderates and the suburban rural voters.

 

[P@triot]

A MIRACLE!!!

 

[Jackson]

Well, that wasn't calculated in there, but...

 

[catzmeow]

Romney doesn't inspire much enthusiasm. I am not a big fan of Obama, but when I get in that booth to punch the card, he's going to look better than the alternative (to me).

Jackson: there is no way in hell that you'd ever have voted for Obama, so your perceptions on this issue are obviously going to be skewed. You're engaging in magical thinking here.

The issue isn't whether people will vote for Obama. It's whether they will prefer Romney to Obama. Romney is not the kind of guy who is going to mobilize the masses to vote enthusiastically. However, he will inspire a lot of the Obama base to vote, just to keep him out of the white house.

I say the odds are low that Romney can beat Obama, in spite of your wishful thinking.

 

[Jackson]

Romney doesn't inspire much enthusiasm.

More importantly, the enthusiasm Obama once had is not apparent at this time. Quite the opposite, I believe.

 

[catzmeow]

Romney doesn't inspire much enthusiasm.

More importantly, the enthusiasm Obama once had is not apparent at this time. Quite the opposite, I believe.

I'm not particularly enthusiastic about Obama. But, there is no way in hell that I want Romney as president.

 

[Jackson]

Romney doesn't inspire much enthusiasm. I am not a big fan of Obama, but when I get in that booth to punch the card, he's going to look better than the alternative (to me).

Jackson: there is no way in hell that you'd ever have voted for Obama, so your perceptions on this issue are obviously going to be skewed. You're engaging in magical thinking here.

The issue isn't whether people will vote for Obama. It's whether they will prefer Romney to Obama.

I say the odds are low.

I was excited about his presidency at the beginning when I saw the celebrations around the nation and globe. I thought this could be the man to bring it all together.

After three and a half years of his policies and tearing this country apart, I see things differently.

The data I provided are not skewed. My opinions are as good as yours. Just where do you disagree?

 

[Jackson]

Romney doesn't inspire much enthusiasm.

More importantly, the enthusiasm Obama once had is not apparent at this time. Quite the opposite, I believe.

I'm not particularly enthusiastic about Obama. But, there is no way in hell that I want Romney as president.

so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?

 

[catzmeow]

where do you disagree?

Last election, there were record turnouts. There were clear differences between the candidates. This election, I suspect there won't be, which means that the numbers of voters required to win will be different. I also suspect that many teapartiers won't vote for Romney, but their vote will be diluted by 3rd party candidates such Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party).

I also disagree with Pew's methodology.

I tend to think the scientists in this article are correct, and that Obama will win the popular vote AND the electoral college.

Analysis: Scientists go beyond the polls to forecast U.S. election | Reuters

 

[catzmeow]

More importantly, the enthusiasm Obama once had is not apparent at this time. Quite the opposite, I believe.

I'm not particularly enthusiastic about Obama. But, there is no way in hell that I want Romney as president.

so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?

No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.

 

[Jackson]

I'm not particularly enthusiastic about Obama. But, there is no way in hell that I want Romney as president.

so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?

No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.

I believe the Republican and conservative base is energized by the SCOTUS decision and Obama's dismal record.

 

[catzmeow]

so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?

No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.

I believe the Republican and conservative base is energized by the SCOTUS decision and Obama's dismal record.

I disagree. You have surrounded yourself by like-minded people, and you are more political than average. I think that most are less motivated than you are.

Politics are like Christianity. Most people are pretty happy just occasionally sitting in a pew once in a while or claiming the label. There are very few disciples.

 

[Jackson]

No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.

I believe the Republican and conservative base is energized by the SCOTUS decision and Obama's dismal record.

I disagree. You have surrounded yourself by like-minded people, and you are more political than average. I think that most are less motivated than you are.

Politics are like Christianity. Most people are pretty happy just occasionally sitting in a pew once in a while or claiming the label. There are very few disciples.

While I agree that posters on a messageboard are usually more political than the average person, the polls do show that they are not happy with the direction of this country at the present time. That generally leads to a change in leadership at the polls, so we'll have to wait and see.

 

[there4eyeM]

Being Mormon could be more of a handicap than being black.

 

[Oldstyle]

What Obama "needs" is a plan to fix the economy. Anyone out there want to tell me what his plan is?

He's going to stand on a debate stage with Mitt Romney and try and bullshit us that he does...I'll be fascinated to watch him try to be honest with you. Vague worked for him last time because he wasn't running on what he HAD done but on vague promises of what he WOULD do. After almost four years does anyone out there in cyber land know what Obama's plan is to fix the economy? If so you better call the White House because THEY don't appear to have HAD a plan after Larry Summer's Keynesian "science project" managed to spend a trillion dollars on a stimulus that didn't stimulate much of anything except for the deficit.

 

[Oldstyle]

I'm not particularly enthusiastic about Obama. But, there is no way in hell that I want Romney as president.

so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?

No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.

I think you're sadly mistaken, Catz...there is a high level of unhappiness with this President's performance with Republicans that I think will send them to the polls. The problem that progressives are looking at is a lack of enthusiasm in the voting blocs that gave Obama his big win in 2008...record voter turnouts among blacks and young voters...two demographics that have been hit especially hard by the Obama Economy. I don't think they're going to turn out for Barry this time because quite frankly he didn't deliver for THEM.

 

[hjmick]

A suitcase...

 

[catzmeow]

I believe the Republican and conservative base is energized by the SCOTUS decision and Obama's dismal record.

I disagree. You have surrounded yourself by like-minded people, and you are more political than average. I think that most are less motivated than you are.

Politics are like Christianity. Most people are pretty happy just occasionally sitting in a pew once in a while or claiming the label. There are very few disciples.

While I agree that posters on a messageboard are usually more political than the average person, the polls do show that they are not happy with the direction of this country at the present time. That generally leads to a change in leadership at the polls, so we'll have to wait and see.

Yes, at this point, we're just picking the fastest horse based upon the jockey's clothing.

 

[Jackson]

What Obama "needs" is a plan to fix the economy. Anyone out there want to tell me what his plan is?

He's going to stand on a debate stage with Mitt Romney and try and bullshit us that he does...I'll be fascinated to watch him try to be honest with you. Vague worked for him last time because he wasn't running on what he HAD done but on vague promises of what he WOULD do. After almost four years does anyone out there in cyber land know what Obama's plan is to fix the economy? If so you better call the White House because THEY don't appear to have HAD a plan after Larry Summer's Keynesian "science project" managed to spend a trillion dollars on a stimulus that didn't stimulate much of anything except for the deficit.

The debates will prove to be interesting. He'll have to come up with something and then explain why he didn't do this while he had a majority. He doesn't have meetings with his Jobs Council, rare meetings with his cabinet, the unemployment has been above 8 ;percent for over 41 months...yes, the debates could be very interesting.

 

[catzmeow]

so, do you see Obama getting the numbers he did in 2008?

No, I don't believe voters from either party are enthusiastic this year, so overall voting will be down, in both parties.

I think you're sadly mistaken, Catz...there is a high level of unhappiness with this President's performance with Republicans that I think will send them to the polls. The problem that progressives are looking at is a lack of enthusiasm in the voting blocs that gave Obama his big win in 2008...record voter turnouts among blacks and young voters...two demographics that have been hit especially hard by the Obama Economy. I don't think they're going to turn out for Barry this time because quite frankly he didn't deliver for THEM.

I don't think that the core conservative base is enthused by Romney. And, conservative Christians don't like him.

Romney is the conservative equivalent of John Kerry. He's a spandex-wearing windsurfing elitist with no discernible personality or charisma. Obama can blame the evil conservatives for killing his job bill and do this: http://www.latenightwithjimmyfallon.com/video/slow-jam-the-news-with-barack-obama-4-24-12/1398195

He is a tremendously likeable guy within his base, who doesn't like or trust the republicans who have stepped on their dicks in a thousand different ways in the past 4 years. So, I think you're overestimating the degree of support for Romney and his odds of beating Obama.