What is the next unemployment number?

Carney sounds like a guy who did the cliff's notes version of his econ text, if he ever had one and tossed it the day the class was over. He has a vauge memory that government spending is supposed to be stimulative and thinks that since unemployment is government spending, it must therefore be stimulative.

Stimulus is the spending outside the normal pattern. Unemployment insurance doesn't qualify.

And since it is set up as an insurance program, when unemployment is high for long periods it leads to increased premiums for employers, in effet a job killing tax on employment.
 
The true unemployment rate nears 23%

sgs-emp.gif
 
I am noticing a substantial shrinkage in the help wanted advertising, and there have been several high profile lay offs in the past two weeks. That could just be an artifact of living in Oregon, looking for a specific sub set of jobs, or being in a general bad mood.


We are having a carnival of stupid in DC, which is always bad for business, and by extension bad for job growth.

So I am going to go out on a limb and predict the next unemployment will be 9.6%

Where do you think the employment numbers are going to be, and why?

Just to be clear, My preference would be for a very much lower unemployment number. that means the number of folks looking for jobs would be a great deal smaller, and my chances a great deal better, given as I give such a lousy interview. Being out of work sucks. And my main goal is to reduce the unemployment numbers by one.... me.


There is one big variable you are not addressing: the Labor Force Participation Rate.

Millions of people have quit looking for work since Obama took office, and are no longer counted as part of the Labor Force. If they were, current U3 unemployment would be approx. 11.5%.
 

New Topics

Forum List

Back
Top