What is the next unemployment number?

Sep 12, 2008
14,201
3,567
185
I am noticing a substantial shrinkage in the help wanted advertising, and there have been several high profile lay offs in the past two weeks. That could just be an artifact of living in Oregon, looking for a specific sub set of jobs, or being in a general bad mood.


We are having a carnival of stupid in DC, which is always bad for business, and by extension bad for job growth.

So I am going to go out on a limb and predict the next unemployment will be 9.6%

Where do you think the employment numbers are going to be, and why?

Just to be clear, My preference would be for a very much lower unemployment number. that means the number of folks looking for jobs would be a great deal smaller, and my chances a great deal better, given as I give such a lousy interview. Being out of work sucks. And my main goal is to reduce the unemployment numbers by one.... me.
 
Unemployment is obviously higher than that, but I think it will get worse before it gets better, especially as states consider budget cuts - less teachers, police officers, firemen, contracts, etc.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkFbYxrxbA8]‪moveon.org's 30 second ad winner "Childs Pay"‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]


oh wait, wrong president...sorry.

I'm very sore at being unemployed right now. I actually have to leave the state I've been in love with for the last six years. :(
 
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I am noticing a substantial shrinkage in the help wanted advertising, and there have been several high profile lay offs in the past two weeks. That could just be an artifact of living in Oregon, looking for a specific sub set of jobs, or being in a general bad mood.


We are having a carnival of stupid in DC, which is always bad for business, and by extension bad for job growth.

So I am going to go out on a limb and predict the next unemployment will be 9.6%

Where do you think the employment numbers are going to be, and why?

Just to be clear, My preference would be for a very much lower unemployment number. that means the number of folks looking for jobs would be a great deal smaller, and my chances a great deal better, given as I give such a lousy interview. Being out of work sucks. And my main goal is to reduce the unemployment numbers by one.... me.


Best of luck man, hope you find something soon. I think 9.6% might be a little high, but I got no data to support that. My guess would be more like what it is now, maybe a tenth of a percent one way or the other. Who knows how many folks stop looking for work and therefore don't get counted. I don't see anything that has recently occurred that might affect the numbers much.
 
Considering the trillions in Bush tax cuts. The Bush tax cut extensions. Nearly half of the stimulus being tax cuts. The oil subsidies. And the fact that the 12 largest US corporations pay zero in taxes, plus the top 10% paying the least in taxes in the last 50 years, according to right wing logic, unemployment should be about 2%. Guess they're a little bit off.
 
Unemployment on the rise again...
:eusa_eh:
28 states see unemployment rates rise
July 23, 2011 -- Twenty-eight states and the District of Columbia saw their unemployment rates increase in June, the U.S. Labor Department said.
In June, 14 states saw no change in their unemployment rates, while eight states recorded decreases, the department said in report released Friday. The number of jobs rose in 26 states and the District of Columbia, while 24 states saw the number of jobs decline.

Texas added the most non-farm jobs in June, gaining by 32,000. California added 28,800 jobs in the month -- having lost 29,200 in the previous month -- while Michigan added 18,000 jobs in June.

The largest declines were posted by Tennessee, which lost 16,900 jobs. Missouri lost the second largest number, down 15,700. In Virginia, 14,600 jobs were lost in the month.

The unemployment rate is highest in Nevada, where the rate jumped from 12.1 percent in May to 12.4 percent. California's unemployment rate, second highest in the nation, is 11.8 percent.

North Dakota, on the other end of the spectrum, has an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, the lowest in the country, but a sharp jump from the 3.2 percent unemployment rate for the state in May. The national unemployment rate was 9.2 percent in June.

Read more: 28 states see unemployment rates rise - UPI.com
 
Considering the trillions in Bush tax cuts. The Bush tax cut extensions. Nearly half of the stimulus being tax cuts. The oil subsidies. And the fact that the 12 largest US corporations pay zero in taxes, plus the top 10% paying the least in taxes in the last 50 years, according to right wing logic, unemployment should be about 2%. Guess they're a little bit off.

If it werent for the Bush tax cuts we'd be in a great depression. But we aren't are we? Phew!
 
Where to look for a job...
:confused:
Unemployment rate giving you the blues? Try these top five cities for jobs.
5 Aug.`11 - With the economy barely growing and investors bailing out of corporate stocks, the US job market isn't exactly sizzling. But conditions vary by region, with some metro areas showing substantial improvement over the past year, according to the Labor Department. Here are the five large metro areas with the lowest unemployment rates combined with unemployment that is down at least half a percentage point over last year.
1. Oklahoma City: 5.7% unemployment

Among large US metro areas, Oklahoma City leads the low-joblessness list as of June, the latest metro numbers crunched by the US Labor Department. Only the District of Columbia (unemployment rate of 6.2 percent) comes close to matching it. And it's near the top of the "most-improved" list, with its unemployment rate falling 1.2 percentage points over the past year.

What does the city-on-the-plains have going for it? A balanced economy that wasn't knocked off its feet by boom-and-bust housing woes in the first place. Plus some extra fuel from its ties to the energy industry, one of the few sectors of the economy to show strength after the recession.

Oklahoma City employment features government jobs (it's the state capital) alongside financial firms and manufacturers like Boeing Co.

Note: If you tally a top-five list that includes smaller metro areas, Bismarck, N.D., tops that list with just 3.6 percent unemployment, followed by Lincoln, Neb., at 4.1 percent.

MORE
 
OP ans. That depends on how the EU crisis is resolved and until Sept no one really knows how or if it will be resolved.
 
If it goes down, the stimulus was a success, if it goes up, it's Bush's fault.....

Ahh...ya noticed that too?
Did you notice the President's little announcement yesterday? Yeah...the economy is bad again, a few months ago his measures were "working"...now the bad economy is not his fault...seriously he literally pointed the finger away from the White House...again.
 
Still, it went down. That was a surprise to me. I thought it would go up. A lot.

Of course, the numbers had a bunch of weird components. One of them was the fact that only half the number of jobs was created to accomodate the monthly increase in those looking for work. It seems a huge number of people left the workforce.

I am pretty sure next revision will see this month's number revised upward.
 
Teens havin' a jobless summer...
:eek:
Average Teen Unemployment Rate in D.C. is 50.1%, Analysis Shows
Friday, August 12, 2011 – An analysis based on U.S. Census Bureau data by the Employment Policies Institute (EPI) shows that the average unemployment rate for teens ages 16 to 19 in the District of Columbia was 50.1 percent as of June 2011. This corresponds with data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showing that for D.C. the annual average unemployment rate for teens in 2010 was 49.8 percent.
Michael Saltsman, research fellow at EPI, provided the 50.1 percent figure to CNSNews.com as an update of an analysis he compiled based on the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The 50.1 percent figure is almost double the average teen unemployment rate in June 2007 in the District, when it was 26.2 percent, according to Saltsman. Since 2007, the rate has increased each year: 29.5 percent in June 2008, 44.7 percent in 2009 and 48.8 percent in 2010, based on EPI’s analysis. “We’re in the midst of the third summer in a row where teen unemployment has been above 20 percent,” Saltsman said when he announced his report on July 8.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not keep monthly unemployment rates on teens, but its data showing the average annual unemployment rate for teens ages 16 to 19 in D.C. for 2010 was 49.8 percent. The state with the second highest unemployment in the EPI analysis, California, also closely mirrors the BLS annual average for 2010 -- 34.4 percent compared to EPI’s 34.6 percent. The latest data from the BLS on average teen unemployment nationwide – all 50 states and the District of Columbia -- as of July 2011 was 25 percent.

“Young people are facing more competition for fewer jobs, a lingering consequence of the recession and wage mandates that have eliminated entry-level opportunities,” Saltsman said. “The consequences for this generation of young people missing out on their first job are severe, including an increased risk of earning low wages and being unemployed again in future years.”

Saltsman’s analysis, which was released on July 8, ranked the 20 states with the highest average teen unemployment through May 2011: the first column shows the actual teen unemployment rate over the teen labor force; the second column reflects the number of discouraged teen workers added to the unemployment rate (also compiled from Census Bureau data).

Source
 
Jobless rate goin' back up...
:eusa_eh:
More People Sought Unemployment Benefits Last Week
Thursday, August 18, 2011 WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose back above 400,000 last week. Still, the four-week average, a more reliable gauge of the job market, fell to the lowest level since mid-April.
The report suggests that the economy is creating jobs but not nearly enough to lower the high unemployment rate. Weekly applications rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 408,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's the highest level in four weeks. Applications have been above 400,000 for 18 of the past 19 weeks. The four-week average dropped for the seventh straight week to 402,500. Still, applications typically must fall below 375,000 to signal healthy job growth. The last time they were that low was in late February. Two weeks ago, applications dropped to 399,000. That was the first time they had fallen below 400,000 since early April. Separately, the Labor Department said consumers paid more for gas, food and clothes last month, pushing prices up by the most since the spring.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent in July, following a drop of 0.2 percent in June. Gas prices accounted for much of the swing. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.2 percent. The report on weekly unemployment applications does provide some positive signs for hiring in August. Applications are lower than they were in mid-July, when they totaled 422,000. Thursday's report covers the week in which the Labor Department asks companies about their payrolls for its August report on hiring. The drop from last month suggests slightly more jobs were added this month. Employers added 117,000 net jobs in July, roughly double the totals from each of the previous two months. The unemployment rate ticked down to 9.1 percent.

Other recent data show the economy gradually improved in July, after growing at annual rate of just 0.8 percent in the first six months of the year. Consumers spent more on retail goods in July than in any month since March. And factory output rose in July by the most since the Japan crisis, a sign that supply chain disruptions caused by the March 11 earthquake could be fading. Still, July's job gains are barely enough to keep up with population growth. At least double that many new jobs are needed to significantly reduce unemployment. And a consumer sentiment survey taken earlier this month showed confidence in the economy fell to the lowest level in 31 years, raising concerns that Americans could pull back on spending.

Worries about U.S. economic weakness and the ongoing European debt crisis caused the stock markets to plunge in recent weeks. While stock indexes have recovered some lost ground, the Dow Jones industrial average is more than 1,200 points lower than it was on July 22. In an effort to boost growth, the Federal Reserve last week said it will keep its benchmark short-term interest rate at nearly zero until mid-2013. Previously, the central bank had never given a clear time frame. It hopes the certainty of low rates will encourage consumers and businesses to borrow and spend more. The Fed's assessment of the economy last week was gloomier than it had been in June. The Fed said it "anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually."

Source
 
Being out of work sucks. And my main goal is to reduce the unemployment numbers by one.... me.

Well well, we're offically a wealth redistributing socialist now !

welcome to the collectivism component of society that's kept anarchy from tearing down the gates of civilized existence for decades BM

so do me a favor, while I go to work today, willingly paying for your a*s on the dole here

don't be puttin' it down like all the other armchair self made , triple dippers , pension sucking hypocrites posters growing an a*s the shape of their computer chairs yelling about the evils of collectivism they themselves partake in

be happy Americans take care of our own

~S~
 
At this point the unemployment number is continuously getting further and further from reality as people give up on finding a job. In reality we are definitely in the 2-digit range.
But even more damning is underemployed...a much more serious and long-term problem...and it isn't new. Prior to 2008 underemployment as a blow to the economy was hidden by the sheer number of people piling up debt on credit cards and 2nd mortgages. As this practice slowed - the ugly head of underemployment will rise and surpass the problem of unemployed.
 
Considering the trillions in Bush tax cuts. The Bush tax cut extensions. Nearly half of the stimulus being tax cuts. The oil subsidies. And the fact that the 12 largest US corporations pay zero in taxes, plus the top 10% paying the least in taxes in the last 50 years, according to right wing logic, unemployment should be about 2%. Guess they're a little bit off.

It so drives the Libs nuts.The Bush tax cuts let Americans keep more of their money and to them that's a crime...
 
Uncle Ferd says it gonna be rough for a long time...
:eusa_eh:
CBO: Unemployment Will Remain Above 8 Percent Until 2014
Wednesday, August 24, 2011 - The Congressional Budget Office projected today that the national unemployment rate will remain above 8 percent until 2014—or until at least a year after the end of the four-year term President Barack Obama won in 2008 and began on Jan. 20, 2009.
“With modest economic growth anticipated for the next few years, CBO expects employment to expand slowly,” says the budget report the CBO released today. “The unemployment rate is projected to fall from 9.1 percent in the second quarter of 2011 to 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of the year and to 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012—and then to remain above 8 percent until 2014.”

According to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, the last time the national unemployment rate was below 8 percent was in January 2009, the month President Obama was inaugurated. That month it stood at 7.8 percent. By February 2009, the month during which President Obama signed his economic stimulus law, the unemployment rate had risen to 8.2 percent.

If the CBO's projection proves correct, the unemployment rate will have remained above 8 percent for every month of Obama’s four-year term following his signing of the economic stimulus law. In January 2009, Obama’s top economic advisers predicted that the stimulus would keep unemployment from rising above 8 percent.

CBO: Unemployment Will Remain Above 8 Percent Until 2014 | CNSnews.com
 
So friggin what folks - the CBO predicted unemployment would be below 5% by 2014 a year ago this week.
The only remarkable thing about this is that anyone pays any attention to it.
 
I am noticing a substantial shrinkage in the help wanted advertising, and there have been several high profile lay offs in the past two weeks. That could just be an artifact of living in Oregon, looking for a specific sub set of jobs, or being in a general bad mood.


We are having a carnival of stupid in DC, which is always bad for business, and by extension bad for job growth.

So I am going to go out on a limb and predict the next unemployment will be 9.6%

Where do you think the employment numbers are going to be, and why?

Just to be clear, My preference would be for a very much lower unemployment number. that means the number of folks looking for jobs would be a great deal smaller, and my chances a great deal better, given as I give such a lousy interview. Being out of work sucks. And my main goal is to reduce the unemployment numbers by one.... me.

good question BM; frankly, I have given up prognosticating after seeing all the circumlocutions the numbers are put thru......people exit work along with layoffs and poor job creation it goes down or stays same...its a joke.
 
Uncle Ferd says it don't make sense to him...
:eusa_eh:
More Unemployment Benefits Don’t Boost Job Growth, Congresswoman Says
September 9, 2011 Washington (CNSNews.com) – Despite what the White House says, unemployment benefits do not spur job growth, said Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).
“Unemployment benefits are not gong to create jobs,” Blackburn told CNSNews.com after President Barack Obama delivered his jobs speech Thursday night to a joint session of Congress. “We’ve heard from so many of our employers that they are an impediment to jobs growth because there may be positions that could be filled or jobs that would be created. And it is a deterrent for individuals applying for or taking those jobs many times.” Part of Obama’s jobs proposal included extending unemployment benefits for out-of-work Americans, while at the same time proposing to reform the system to include reemployment assistance. That is a work-sharing system to encourage employers to keep more workers on part-time instead of layoffs, giving states flexibility on unemployment insurance and establishing “Startup Assistance” for states to help long-term unemployed workers create their own jobs by starting their own small businesses.

On Aug. 10, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney claimed that unemployment benefits boost job growth. Wall Street Journal reporter Laura Meckler asked Carney, “I understand why extending unemployment insurance provides relief to people who need it, but how does it create jobs?” Carney acted surprised to get the question. “I would expect a reporter from the Wall Street Journal would know this as part of the entrance exam just to get on the paper,” he said. “But the -- no, seriously. It is one of the most direct ways to infuse money into the economy because people who are unemployed and obviously aren’t earning a paycheck are going to spend the money that they get.”

“They're not going to save it; they're going to spend it,” said Carney. “And unemployment insurance, that money goes directly back into the economy, dollar for dollar virtually. So it is -- and when it goes back in the economy, it means that everywhere that those people – every place that that money is spent has added business. And that creates growth and income for businesses that then lead them to making decisions about job -- more hiring. So there are few other ways that can more directly put money into the economy than providing unemployment insurance.”

The reporter then asked, “Why since it's been extended have we seen unemployment not drop, in fact?” Carney said, “Well, look, this is ‘what would have happened argument.’ But we have seen is, what is it, 2.4 million private sector jobs created. And this year there’s -- I mean, again, this is not just -- I encourage you, and I know that you all have good contacts in that world, but economic analysts wholly unaffiliated with this administration would tell you, and told you back late last year, that the combination of the payroll tax cut and extension of unemployment insurance would have a direct, measurable impact on job creation.”

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