What Has Obama Done to his Elections Odds by Endorsing Gay Marriage?

[Clementine]

I've read a number of articles on this and the comments from readers aren't positive. Most seem to think that he's just pandering for votes and it's not earning him any points.

 

[BDBoop]

Gee, where are you reading. Hmm. I wonder.

 

[oreo]

I've read a number of articles on this and the comments from readers aren't positive. Most seem to think that he's just pandering for votes and it's not earning him any points.

No it's not going to EARN him any points--but it's sure going to take away points.

 

[Artevelde]

Nice electoral map tool:
2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

This endorsement of Gay Marriage is going to cost Obama the South and most of the western states too. This puts Florida, Virginia, N Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado in the GOP column with another 72 EV bringing Romney's total to 263.

So Romney only needs either Ohio or Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire and Iowa together.

I think Romney will get PA and OH too for a total of 311 to 227.

Obama just shot himself in the arse.

Not easy to predict and there are of course many other issues people will base their vote on.
On the whole however I think Obama didn't help himself here. He probably thinks that coming out for gay marriage will energize support for him among liberals. But I doubt he won over anybody new and the people who are pro gay marriage and base their vote on that were going to go out and vote hor him anyway. He may however have provided greater impetus for people opposed to gay marriage to go out and vote against him, even if they don't really care much for Romney.

 

[Artevelde]

I think you guys are VASTLY over-estimating the number of Obama supporters who will flip because of this.

I don't know how many Latino's were planning on voting for Obama--but I imagine since they typically have a very strong Catholic base--that many are looking at Romney tomorrow a little more seriously--along with many democrats who do not--nor would not approve of same sex marriage.

Again--Barack Obama could not have handed Mitt Romney a better gift.

I'm assuming Romney will offer them all amnesty, and that will be that.

No? You think not.

Yeah. I didn't really think so either.

Newsflash: people who get to vote are citizens and thus don't need amnesty.

 

[BDBoop]

I don't know how many Latino's were planning on voting for Obama--but I imagine since they typically have a very strong Catholic base--that many are looking at Romney tomorrow a little more seriously--along with many democrats who do not--nor would not approve of same sex marriage.

Again--Barack Obama could not have handed Mitt Romney a better gift.

I'm assuming Romney will offer them all amnesty, and that will be that.

No? You think not.

Yeah. I didn't really think so either.

Newsflash: people who get to vote are citizens and thus don't need amnesty.

Newsflash; they have friends, family and loved ones who are not citizens, and do need amnesty.

 

[JimBowie1958]

No, those who disagree with the president weren’t going to vote for him, anyway.

Where do you get this factoid from?

Ah yes, from your nether region.

Shoulda known.

Logic, asshole.

Your logic fails. Voters disagree with almost all condidates on one issue or another. I disagree with Obama on about two thirds of the issues and with Romney on a third of the issues.

So I can disagree with them and still vote for them due to the issues I AGREE with them on.

In the case of Romney, the two thirds I agree with him on are trumped by the fact that I think he is lying on almost everything he has said, and the moderates who support him apparently think him a liar too because Romney has the most rightwing rhetoric out there. He was to the right of Pat Buchanan for Goodness sakes. I think Romney a despicable man and I would have voted for Obama instead had Obama not dropped an ideological nuke.

Ideological nukes are things like 'I am going to make all guns illegal.' Or 'I am going to institute a draft of all young people, male and female, between the ages of 14 and 40.' Or 'I am going to make free speech illegal.' Or 'I plan to be President for life.' That sort of thing.

Supporting gay marriage, IMO, is an ideological nuke that clears the board of every other consideration. I will vote against Obama this fall.

Oops, I promised to be a kinder, gentler me. Allow me to try again.

"I despise Romney and everything he stands for. Nevertheless, I shall vote for him in November."

Does that sound logical to you? I hope not. That's because it isn't.

Yes, it can be logical if the vote is not so much FOR Romney as AGAINST Obama.

The neocon lie that we cannot risk four more years of Obama has now been made true, IMO.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I'm assuming Romney will offer them all amnesty, and that will be that.

No? You think not.

Yeah. I didn't really think so either.

Newsflash: people who get to vote are citizens and thus don't need amnesty.

Newsflash; they have friends, family and loved ones who are not citizens, and do need amnesty.

So we should give it to them because they need it?

Hell, sister, EVERY convict sitting in prison needs amnesty too.

You wanna just empty out our prisons while your at work legalizing all the criminals who snuck into our country?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Where do you get this factoid from?

Ah yes, from your nether region.

Shoulda known.

Logic, asshole.

Oops, I promised to be a kinder, gentler me. Allow me to try again.

"I despise Romney and everything he stands for. Nevertheless, I shall vote for him in November."

Does that sound logical to you? I hope not. That's because it isn't.

People who kept saying "anyone but Obama" got their wish.

Well *I* never said that till now.

 

[Artevelde]

I'm assuming Romney will offer them all amnesty, and that will be that.

No? You think not.

Yeah. I didn't really think so either.

Newsflash: people who get to vote are citizens and thus don't need amnesty.

Newsflash; they have friends, family and loved ones who are not citizens, and do need amnesty.

The words latino and illegal are really just the same to you I guess. Pretty racist way of thinking.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Logic, asshole.

Oops, I promised to be a kinder, gentler me. Allow me to try again.

"I despise Romney and everything he stands for. Nevertheless, I shall vote for him in November."

Does that sound logical to you? I hope not. That's because it isn't.

People who kept saying "anyone but Obama" got their wish.

To be honest--I think Obama just committed political suicide with this one. If you can't get California to go along with gay marriage--you're not going to have much luck anywhere else in this country. Democrats living in the mid west and south are going to be very offended by his endorsement--along with Latino's who are very Catholic faith based.

I think Obama really doesn't want a second term as President--and that's why he came out with this statement. Mitt Romney could not have received a better gift than this.

Dude, you have this one nailed.

Obama just put Romney within 7 electoral votes of the WH.

I am suspecting that Obama thinks he cant win due to acurate internal polling and so he wants to go down fighting for everything he believes in if he is going to lose anyway.

I respect Obama, but I cannot abide his choice here and still consider voting for him.

 

[BDBoop]

Newsflash: people who get to vote are citizens and thus don't need amnesty.

Newsflash; they have friends, family and loved ones who are not citizens, and do need amnesty.

The words latino and illegal are really just the same to you I guess. Pretty racist way of thinking.

Yes, dear.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I think you guys are VASTLY over-estimating the number of Obama supporters who will flip because of this.

I am not refering to hard core Obama supporters, of course.

I am saying that Obama just put a burr under the asses of all those social conservatives who were on the fence about Romney. Now that they got a dog in this hunt they are going to turn out in massive numbers instead of watching reruns of 'I love Lucy' on election night.

Some Obama supporters might switch their votes, but that is statistically not nearly so important as him pushing the full 45% of self-identifying conservatives to vote on election day. I think he will lose more of hihs own supporters because now more of them will stay home or go party, etc. He was in trouble on that count already anyway.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I am quite certain that Obamas support for Gay Marriage is not priced in already.

The coming polls over the next few weeks should show us what the fallout is.

Well, I disagree. People who were going to vote for him will do so anyway. Those who were not going to vote for him, won't. Those who have yet to make up their mind because they just returned from one of the Jovian moons, pretty much figured he was a Democrat and will just come down on the side of gays because that his how democrats stay in power.

Democrats stay in power by coming down on the side of gays? You guys sound dumber and dumber every day

And you keep thinking that but they still manage to suprise anyhow.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Nice electoral map tool:
2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

This endorsement of Gay Marriage is going to cost Obama the South and most of the western states too. This puts Florida, Virginia, N Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado in the GOP column with another 72 EV bringing Romney's total to 263.

So Romney only needs either Ohio or Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire and Iowa together.

I think Romney will get PA and OH too for a total of 311 to 227.

Obama just shot himself in the arse.

Only thing he proved is that he will lie his ass off to win.


At least will give you an answer, other than "I'm evolving".


fyi; that's pussy for "I lack the courage to tell you what I think or believe."

I agree, except that I think Obama more honest than Romney by miles.

Gay marriage trumps all this other shit. I am voting against Obama now and nothing else will change that unless Romney takes a similar stand or says he wants to ban guns or free speech or something else I think equally crucial.

 

[California Girl]

Nice electoral map tool:
2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

This endorsement of Gay Marriage is going to cost Obama the South and most of the western states too. This puts Florida, Virginia, N Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado in the GOP column with another 72 EV bringing Romney's total to 263.

So Romney only needs either Ohio or Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire and Iowa together.

I think Romney will get PA and OH too for a total of 311 to 227.

Obama just shot himself in the arse.

Only thing he proved is that he will lie his ass off to win.


At least will give you an answer, other than "I'm evolving".


fyi; that's pussy for "I lack the courage to tell you what I think or believe."

I agree, except that I think Obama more honest than Romney by miles.

Gay marriage trumps all this other shit. I am voting against Obama now and nothing else will change that unless Romney takes a similar stand or says he wants to ban guns or free speech or something else I think equally crucial.

Obama is more honest than Romney?

On what planet?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Nice electoral map tool:
2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

This endorsement of Gay Marriage is going to cost Obama the South and most of the western states too. This puts Florida, Virginia, N Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado in the GOP column with another 72 EV bringing Romney's total to 263.

So Romney only needs either Ohio or Pennsylvania, or New Hampshire and Iowa together.

I think Romney will get PA and OH too for a total of 311 to 227.

Obama just shot himself in the arse.

Not easy to predict and there are of course many other issues people will base their vote on.
On the whole however I think Obama didn't help himself here. He probably thinks that coming out for gay marriage will energize support for him among liberals. But I doubt he won over anybody new and the people who are pro gay marriage and base their vote on that were going to go out and vote hor him anyway. He may however have provided greater impetus for people opposed to gay marriage to go out and vote against him, even if they don't really care much for Romney.

I agree.

There is a set of facts that most people in this country do not comprehend due to the left-right model most use when they think of politics. That model places the right and left balanced at opposite ends of a line, with the moderates in the middle being the fulcrum, but this model is seriously flawed.

First of all, there is no balance. Self identifying voters surveyed, 45% say they are conservative, 35% say they are moderate and 20% say they are liberal. The GOP could win simply by energizing their base and taking between a third and half the moderate vote. If they run too hard to the middle, they lose three conservatives for every moderate they gain, an obviously losing approach.

But the GOPe dont get this. They think it is crucial to move to the center for the general election and there is some truth to that IF YOU HAVE WON THE SUPPORT OF THE BASE of the party which for the GOP is the conservative voter.

When the GOP nominates moderates like McCain, Ford, Dole, etc they lose too many conservatives to ever make them up from gains in the middle.

Thus every election that the GOP has won since 1972 the candidate ran as a conservative; Nixon, Reagan, Bush in 88, W in 2004 and 2000.

When they nominate moderates to get more of the center they lose; Ford, Bush 92, Dole, and McCain.

Romney has been talking like a conservative though none of his moderate supporters believe him apparently. His lack of credibility undermined his very conservative message.


All that doesnt mater now as almost every social conservative is going to turn out to vote now against Obama and gay marriage.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Obama is more honest than Romney?

On what planet?

Laugh all you want. I dont mind.

But as Obama demonstrated today, he will say some things that will cost him votes because he believes in it.

Romney believes in nothing but getting elected and would say anything from 'I have been a life long member of the NRA' to 'The first day in office I am going to stop Obamacare from becoming implemented.' The latter claim is not going to happen and some of his staff have told the experts to not worry about the rhetoric; it is just politics.

Conservatives in the GOP just got conned out of supporting some very viable candidates some of whom were actually conservative, unlike this fraud Romney.

You do realize that Romney is quite likely to purge the Tea Party and traditonal conservatism from the GOP leadership, once he is elected. Right?

I would rather have Ron Paul by far, but GOP conservatives have drunk the Kool Aid and think that Romney is actually a better candidate. I guess money can not only buy elections but it can turn reality inside out for ideologues too.

 

[Truthseeker420]

Obama isn't going to win the bigot vote, so he can only help himself by promoting equal rights for everyone.

 

[SniperFire]

He could change his mind again.

Seems his stance on this issue matches his political need at the moment.

Such a man of conviction!