What do we REALLY know about Temperatures?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by IanC, Apr 7, 2011.

  1. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    Muller's premature ejaculation last week really got me thinking about how confident we should be in our observations and proxy implied reconstructions.

    Raw temp data would be very good but conditions change, sites move, populations increase, thermometres change, land use changes, and a host of other factors change. The adjustments we make (or dont make) are a significant fraction of the change in trends. We will never have total agreement over how those adjustments should be made but at least the BEST group will have open access to the data and (hopefully) transparent methodologies to show how the data is manipulated. Other groups will be able to construct their own methodologies and argue why their figures are more representative. This is a good thing and will do away with scandals like in New Zealand where the govt agency just quit rather than defend their methods.

    Proxy reconstructions of past climate are in much worse shape. I dont know how many of you have looked at proxy data but typically they are almost all noise with a very weak signal that has to be teased out by complicated methodologies that are extremely sensitive to start and stop dates, averaging, smoothing and especially cherry picking. C'mon now, Mann has been caught several times using proxies UPSIDE DOWN! And it gets through pal review. I could point to reconstructions like Loehle 2007 that show strong MWP and LIA but really I dont trust any of them as anything more than sugguestions of what might have happened.

    Other measurements like sea level rise have problems too. Satellite measurements may (or may not) be accurate but they are calibrated to tide gauges. I am not saying we shouldnt measure thing because we cant do it perfectly, I am saying that we are being told things with unrealistic estimations of uncertainty. Our knowledge of the climate is rapidly expanding but it would progress even faster without being contorted to fit the AGW scenario at every turn. There are numerous topics that need to be explored but dont get the funding that CO2 siphons off. Clouds, thermal time lags, solar effects, multidecadal ocean currents, ENSO, etc,etc.

    Rant off....
     
  2. edthecynic
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    edthecynic Censored for Cynicism

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    Translation, "there is no data to support the deniers, therefore all data is suspect." :lol:
     
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  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    What do we really know about tobacco smoke? What if it is really good for you? Some people smoke all their lives without any visible ill effects, therefore all that is said about the ill effects of tobacco is probably wrong. Same reasoning that you are using, Ian.
     
  4. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    [ QUOTE=edthecynic;3506754]
    Translation, "there is no data to support the deniers, therefore all data is suspect." :lol:[/QUOTE]

    there is lots of data, and most of it is equivical so that people on both sides can use it to come to different conclusions. or in the case of alarmists, it is often used to come to opposite conclusions as long as the end result is catastrophe
     
  5. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    I am not up to speed on the tobacco wars but I would be willing to bet my house that there have been claims made that are not supported by evidence.
     
  6. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Lol.
     
  7. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Ian, your concerns are well founded I am afraid. The only thing that I trust are historical records that show England competeing with France for wine production during the MWP. That is an unalterable fact that need not be "teased" out of a bunch of "noise".

    Wherever historical records have been kept well they all show significant warming during the MWP and the RWP. We KNOW those things to be true because the historians of the day lived it, and fortunately for us, wrote that history down.

    It would be nice to know just how much warming there was but in the long run it doesn't really matter, we know it was much warmer and that's enough.
     
  8. skookerasbil
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    skookerasbil Gold Member

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    BUT NOBODY CARES ABOUT THE DATA



    Hate to break it to ya s0n, but its 2011.........and the deniers rule the day. Its not even debatable. Crap and Tax legislation is in the shitter from sea to shining sea!!!

    New Hampshire repeals cap and trade | New Hampshire House of Representatives votes to repeal cap and trade law | The Daily Caller - Breaking News, Opinion, Research, and Entertainment


    Deniers FTW!!!:mm::mm::mm:



    [​IMG]
     
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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2011
  9. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    That's some REAL GOOD news!
     
  10. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    You would be right.
     

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