What are you going to do when/if?

[Immanuel]

Will Obamacare Cause Employers to Drop Health Coverage? | Via Meadia

So, it is 2014. Now, employers have a choice to make. They can pay upwards of $12,000/year for each employee's family health insurance or nearly $5,000/year for a single employee or they can pay a $2,000/employee tax.

Your employer has been subsidizing your health insurance for the five years you have been working for them, but now they run the numbers and decide that it is much cheaper for them to pay the $2,000/employee than it is for them to pay for your health insurance. They decide that come the next enrollment period, all of you are on your own when it comes to health insurance. They will willingly pay the tax. Oh, and they are unwilling to pass those savings on to you in your payroll. Why should they?

You as an individual have to have health insurance or pay a tax to the government and go without health insurance. Are you going to quit your job and join the ranks of the unemployed?

Employer Mandate Tax(Jan 2014): If an employer does not offer health coverage, and at least one employee qualifies for a health tax credit, the employer must pay an additional non-deductible tax of $2000 for all full-time employees. This provision applies to all employers with 50 or more employees. If any employee actually receives coverage through the exchange, the penalty on the employer for that employee rises to $3000. If the employer requires a waiting period to enroll in coverage of 30-60 days, there is a $400 tax per employee ($600 if the period is 60 days or longer).

Individual Mandate Excise Tax(Jan 2014): Starting in 2014, anyone not buying “qualifying” health insurance must pay an income surtax according to the higher of the following

{snip... see table at link}

Exemptions for religious objectors, undocumented immigrants, prisoners, those earning less than the poverty line, members of Indian tribes, and hardship cases (determined by HHS)

Americans for Tax Reform : Comprehensive List of Tax Hikes in Obamacare

Here is a decent article saying that this won't happen, but are you willing to bet on it?

Will Obamacare Drive Out Employer-Sponsored Insurance>? A Simple Test « Code Red

Keep in mind, there are already plenty of companies that can no longer provide health insurance for their employees and no longer do. So, the idea that the "employment market" will prevent employers from doing this is not on all that stable of ground. When one company makes the choice, others will follow.

And this article puts numbers and percentages to the employment market that is expected to drop health coverage altogether.

How US health care reform will affect employee benefits - McKinsey Quarterly - Health Care - Strategy & Analysis

•Overall, 30 percent of employers will definitely or probably stop offering ESI in the years after 2014.
•Among employers with a high awareness of reform, this proportion increases to more than 50 percent, and upward of 60 percent will pursue some alternative to traditional ESI.
•At least 30 percent of employers would gain economically from dropping coverage even if they completely compensated employees for the change through other benefit offerings or higher salaries.
•Contrary to what many employers assume, more than 85 percent of employees would remain at their jobs even if their employer stopped offering ESI, although about 60 percent would expect increased compensation.

Are you ready, willing and able to pay for your own health insurance when your employer tells you, "Sorry, this is a business decision. We have no other choice"?

Immie