West Coast Mega-Earthquake (8-9+) Predicted THIS WEEK

[paravani]

Plate tectonics and seismology involve so many variables that making predictions is so difficult that proclamations such as this are ridiculous. That's why even the most seasoned seismologists will not link a prediction to a specific time window. Fail thread.

Actually, the day I posted this thread our local TV station announced the 6.3 quake on the Juan de Fuca plate, and the geologist said that they were going to keep a close eye on it over the next few months. I don't have a TV (don't like 'em), so I didn't stumble across the newscast until a couple of days later... but there ya go.

I'm not trying to identify any exact moment when the quake will hit. I'm not Nostradamus.

However, there are seismic patterns associated with large quakes, and the Juan de Fuca plate just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest has entered a period of seismic activity that is consistent with those patterns. There have been several very large quakes at its northern tip, and the number of small quakes along the northwest coast has increased tenfold. They're not big and impressive, but there are a LOT of them right now... and when the big and impressive one finally arrives, it will be the worst disaster in American history... so it's better to be aware and prepared than not, because awareness and vigilance can provide extra seconds to save lives.

I recommend those who live here to pay attention to any sudden changes in ground motion, as the first vertical wave will arrive about twenty seconds before the violent shaking begins. That twenty seconds could be a vital window for finding shelter or fleeing a fragile building. Do not stand around wondering "if this is the big one" -- assume that it is, and take appropriate measures immediately.

___________________________________

Fortunately Ski87, you live in New Mexico, so you don't have to worry about it.

However, those millions of us who live in Cascadia know that planning for a disaster of this magnitude takes more than just a week, and we're grateful for every extra day we have to put up more rice and beans, stock up on canned goods, and make sure we have enough firewood to last the winter.

If it bothers you that we have this thread to discuss our concerns -- such as the consequences of dams breaking, power outages, etc. -- no one will hold it against you if you decide to stop checking in on it. Unless you're in the National Guard, it isn't anything you'll have to deal with when it comes.

-- Paravani

 

[CrotchetyGeezer]

Plate tectonics and seismology involve so many variables that making predictions is so difficult that proclamations such as this are ridiculous. That's why even the most seasoned seismologists will not link a prediction to a specific time window. Fail thread.

Actually, the day I posted this thread our local TV station announced the 6.3 quake on the Juan de Fuca plate, and the geologist said that they were going to keep a close eye on it over the next few months. I don't have a TV (don't like 'em), so I didn't stumble across the newscast until a couple of days later... but there ya go.

I'm not trying to identify any exact moment when the quake will hit. I'm not Nostradamus.

Really, did you not say this earlier?

I predicted the Japanese mega-quake last year,

If you're not Nostradamus, you didn't "predict" it. You just took a wild guess and just so happened to be right. To say you "predicted" it is to imply you peered through a crystal ball and saw the future and seen it happen or you had some strange dream and the events unfolded exactly as you dreamed it, or something. If I say every other day or so that an earthquake is going to hit in the next two years and, then, two years from now an earthquake hits, this doesn't necessarily mean I predicted it.

 

[paravani]

Also, when studying the probabilities concerning dam failure, one has to consider that that there are cases where the dam does not fail, yet the result is still catastrophic. The volcanic strata on the north side of Bonneville is on a 2 degree slope to the south. In fact, Cascade Locks is built on debris from a slide that occurred there many years in the past. In a subduction quake, there is a possibility that there would be another great slide. And that the resultant wave would overtop the Bonneville Dam. Even though the dam would most likely remain intact, the resultant wave downstream in the Columbia would destroy whole communities. My properties would be at risk.

Hi, Rocks!

In response to this post, I spent the day researching the dams along the Columbia River and its tributaries far north into Canada.

While it's true that the Columbia River runs through Eastern Washington, and thus will experience much less shaking than dams that are 200 miles or less from the fault, the Subduction Zone event will probably be felt to some degree as far east as Montana, just as the 1964 Good Friday earthquake in Alaska was felt as vigorous shaking here in Washington State.

There is one eastern Washington dam in particular -- Boundary Dam, situated in the far northeastern corner of Washington, in Colville National Forest -- that will probably not withstand any amount of shaking. Boundary Dam is owned by Seattle City Light, and they have been studying its increased cracking for a couple of decades. It's been worrisome to the engineers at City Light for some time already, and there are not many who would take the bet that it would stand through a Cascadia Subduction Zone event.

When a dam breaks, its waters pour downstream. In the case of Boundary, a very large dam which is near the headwaters of the Columbia, the excess water would probably overtop all the other dams downstream, in some cases causing additional failures.

Every additional failure increases the volume of water that slams into the next dam downstream, increasing the likelihood of even more failures.

This is a partial list of the dams that are downstream from Boundary:

7-Mile Dam (Canada)
Waneta Dam (Canada)
Grand Coulee Dam (WA)
Chief Joseph Dam (WA)
Wells Dam (WA)
Rocky Reach Dam (WA)
Rock Island Dam (WA)
Wanapum Dam (WA)
Priest Rapids Dam (WA)
McNary Dam (WA/OR)
John Day Dam (WA/OR)
The Dalles Dam (WA/OR)
Bonneville Dam (WA/OR)

There are three other dams in Canada that are on different tributaries, not directly downstream from Boundary. If any of them were to fail, the sequence would be the same except the next dam they'd hit would be Grand Coulee.

There are also five dams on a tributary that starts out in Idaho and empties in Richland, near Hanford Nuclear Reservation. They are:

Dworshak dam (ID)
Lower Granite Dam (WA)
Little Goose Dam and lock (WA)
Lower Monumental Dam (WA)
Ice Harbor Dam and lock (WA)

Speaking of Hanford -- I've never been there, but on the satellite view it appears to be somewhat flat, sloping gradually to the river. That would be bad in a flood, because Hanford is the single most radioactively polluted site in America. Hanford has radioactive waste buried in hundreds of underground cisterns -- think in terms of the enormous cisterns that hold our national oil reserves -- yeah, that size, only underground, filled with radioactive waste, and leaking like sieves into the groundwater. Pretty much every square inch of soil at Hanford is toxic, as can be easily seen from any aerial view -- it's dead, dead, dead, and it's going to stay that way for a long, LONG time.

Now... consider the flood-waters of multiple dam breaches washing through Hanford, carrying away toxic soil and radioactive waste... and flushing it directly into the Columbia River where it will land on the streets and in the houses of every flooded community alongside the river.

In Longview/Kelso, incoming tsunami waters will crash up against outgoing flood-waters from the breached dams, increasing both the depth and the duration of the flooding. The north side of Portland next to the Columbia will also experience severe flooding, and Portland International Airport may be underwater for several days.

_______________________________


That's all for today. Tomorrow I'll take a closer look at the types of dams along the Willamette and Columbia, and try to identify which ones are more likely to fail.

Oh, and by the way... Tonight there was a 6.0 earthquake in southern Mexico, about 600 miles further northeast than the big 7.4 that happened a week ago and its aftershocks. So the Pacific plate appears to be subducting under the America plates from the South northwards, and from northern Canada southwards.

In other words, it's looking more and more as if California's "big one" may come at about the same time as Washington and Oregon's CSZ event.

-- Paravani

 

[paravani]

I predicted the Japanese mega-quake last year,

If you're not Nostradamus, you didn't "predict" it. You just took a wild guess and just so happened to be right.

I made an educated guess and I happened to be right.

Nostradamus made "wild" guesses (that he couched in sufficiently vague language that people thought he was right.)

You're in Utah anyway, so why would you care?

I notice that all the people who actually live on the West Coast have positive contributions to make to the thread, while most of those who live in areas that won't be affected at all have made negative contributions. Why do you suppose that is?

Anyway, since the first two words in the thread title are "West Coast", you have no one to blame except yourself if you find the thread singularly unsatisfying.

-- Paravani

 

[editec]

Does anyone here live on the West Coast? Anyone at all?

-- Paravani

No, but my son lives in West Seattle.

I don't have much confidence in earthquake prediction, but I'll give him a head's up, just in case.

Thanks for mentioning it, Paravani.

 

[Grandma]

I don't underget how the Aztecs or contemporary observers of any civilization can call them astronomers without the aid of telescopes.

Isn't this the same group of people that commited human sacrifice when things didn't go their way?

I'm a little more than sceptical of any group that is this enthralled with fantasy land and acts out homicidely on their own citizens or neighbors unlucky enough to get captured when something goes sideways against their belief system.

Just sayin.

Astronomy and astrology are two different things. Most ancient civilizations were great with astronomy. They had a much easier time seeing the stars because there were no city lights to dim them. And the ancients, some of them, even knew how to make glass magnifying lenses.

 

[Old Rocks]

Earthquake prediction is where volcanic prediction was prior to St. Helens. When we get a major subduction quake on the West Coast, we will understand a great deal more than we do at present, because of the amount of monitoring that is being done at present.

Tanya Atwater, taking into account the periodicity of the subduction quakes on the Mexican coast, was able to place seismic monitors prior to the quake, and catch the Mexico City quake. The periodicity of the Cascadia subduction zone is much less even than that of the subduction zone along the Mexican Coast. So, predicition is more difficult.

However, the geologists and seismologists are watching present events very closely.

 

[theHawk]

I grew up in California and had to listen to all the doomsday "big one" garbage.

I was in Monterey all last week and don't recall a 8-9+ quake happening.

Another fraud exposed.

 

[Avatar4321]

The Aztecs were astronomers

I don't underget how the Aztecs or contemporary observers of any civilization can call them astronomers without the aid of telescopes.

Isn't this the same group of people that commited human sacrifice when things didn't go their way?

I'm a little more than sceptical of any group that is this enthralled with fantasy land and acts out homicidely on their own citizens or neighbors unlucky enough to get captured when something goes sideways against their belief system.

Just sayin.

There were astronomers for milenia prior to the invention of the Telescope. They just had less equipment to work with.

 

[Avatar4321]

Im quite happy that this prediction is a failure. Not because I have anything against the predictor. I just dont like seeing people hurt

 

[paravani]

This week there WERE additional "foreshock" quakes that warn of increasing seismic instability on the West Coast.

I grew up in California and had to listen to all the doomsday "big one" garbage.

I was in Monterey all last week and don't recall a 8-9+ quake happening.

Hello, All!

This is to notify you that a very large earthquake measuring 8 to 9+ on the Richter scale could strike the West Coast of the United States this week, possibly as early as today.

Note the word "could" in the first sentence of the thread.

I'm very glad that it didn't happen last week! That does NOT, however, mean that it won't strike THIS week, nor that it is LESS likely to strike this week since it didn't strike last week.

The fact is that we haven't gone this long without a Mega-Quake since before humanity invented the wheel... and seismic conditions are ripe for it.

I repeat: This week there WERE additional "foreshock" quakes that warn of increasing seismic instability on the West Coast.

You will note on the USGS live earthquake map that there was a 6.0 in Southern Mexico at 1:20 this morning (PST). That signals increasing West Coast instability both north AND south of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

This week there have also been many more small quakes on the boundary between the Juan de Fuca and the North American plate than one usually sees. Normally most small quakes in Washington and Oregon are in the mountains, the Cascades and the Olympics. To see so many quakes just offshore is extremely unusual.

There's also a wealth of statistical information regarding historical earthquake activity. The graph below represents the total strength of all earthquakes worldwide of magnitude 4 and above each year. It may be found at dlindquist.com.

You will note that there appears to have been a marked increase in the total strength of worldwide seismic activity beginning with the 2004 Boxing Day quake in Indonesia.

(Much of the decrease that appears in 2008 is an artifact of the data. In 2008, USGS decided to stop archiving quakes below magnitude 5, because there were so many of these smaller quakes being recorded worldwide. Consequently, you will see this dip in 2008 in all graphs that include archived quakes of magnitude 4 or below.)


To see the comparative strength of specific seismic events, you really need to look at each month individually.

In this graph, you can see clearly that the large subduction zone events occurring worldwide since the end of 2004 have dwarfed any of the earthquakes in all of the previous 40 years.

So, while I'm very glad that our CSZ event didn't happen last week, I'm also tending to my preparations every day. I'm going to pick up more of my asthma medication at the pharmacy today, and add a few more canned goods to my stores. Preparing for the largest disaster ever to strike the United States doesn't just happen overnight. I've been preparing for the last three years, and I'm still not confident that we're "ready".

Thank God you personally don't have to be in Monterey right now. If I had a choice, I wouldn't be on the West Coast, either.

-- Paravani

 

[westwall]

We all fail because we are feeding into this, true seismologists would read one line and log off after laughing aloud first.

No, they wouldn't. They would say quite simply that predicting earthquakes is currently beyond our ability and then use the thread as an opportunity to educate the readers on earthquake preparedness.

 

[westwall]

Plate tectonics and seismology involve so many variables that making predictions is so difficult that proclamations such as this are ridiculous. That's why even the most seasoned seismologists will not link a prediction to a specific time window. Fail thread.

Actually, the day I posted this thread our local TV station announced the 6.3 quake on the Juan de Fuca plate, and the geologist said that they were going to keep a close eye on it over the next few months. I don't have a TV (don't like 'em), so I didn't stumble across the newscast until a couple of days later... but there ya go.

I'm not trying to identify any exact moment when the quake will hit. I'm not Nostradamus.

However, there are seismic patterns associated with large quakes, and the Juan de Fuca plate just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest has entered a period of seismic activity that is consistent with those patterns. There have been several very large quakes at its northern tip, and the number of small quakes along the northwest coast has increased tenfold. They're not big and impressive, but there are a LOT of them right now... and when the big and impressive one finally arrives, it will be the worst disaster in American history... so it's better to be aware and prepared than not, because awareness and vigilance can provide extra seconds to save lives.

I recommend those who live here to pay attention to any sudden changes in ground motion, as the first vertical wave will arrive about twenty seconds before the violent shaking begins. That twenty seconds could be a vital window for finding shelter or fleeing a fragile building. Do not stand around wondering "if this is the big one" -- assume that it is, and take appropriate measures immediately.

___________________________________

Fortunately Ski87, you live in New Mexico, so you don't have to worry about it.

However, those millions of us who live in Cascadia know that planning for a disaster of this magnitude takes more than just a week, and we're grateful for every extra day we have to put up more rice and beans, stock up on canned goods, and make sure we have enough firewood to last the winter.

If it bothers you that we have this thread to discuss our concerns -- such as the consequences of dams breaking, power outages, etc. -- no one will hold it against you if you decide to stop checking in on it. Unless you're in the National Guard, it isn't anything you'll have to deal with when it comes.

-- Paravani

Actually, there really aren't seismic patterns associated with large quakes. There is a phenomena known as a "Mogi Donut" wherein a small earthquake forewarns of a larger quake that will occur within the area of the circle of aftershocks that form around the original quake. Even that however, is not a guarantee. Many "Mogi Donuts" form and no large quake occurs.

The other theory dealing with seaismic patterns is the "Fault Gap" theory which only works with strike slip faults and that theory basically says if a fault (like the San Andreas) breaks in an area. Then breaks in another area farhter away, the middle area between the two will be the next section to break. So, according to that theory, the next big quake should occur in the area of the "Big Bend" of the San Andreas near Fort Tejon.

Twenty plus years have passed between the San Fran quake of 1906 and the Landers quake of the 1990's which sets up the fault gap and still no earthquake. So, once again, we can tell you there WILL be an earthquake, but telling you WHEN it will occur is beyond us.

 

[CrotchetyGeezer]

This week there WERE additional "foreshock" quakes that warn of increasing seismic instability on the West Coast.

I grew up in California and had to listen to all the doomsday "big one" garbage.

I was in Monterey all last week and don't recall a 8-9+ quake happening.

Hello, All!

This is to notify you that a very large earthquake measuring 8 to 9+ on the Richter scale could strike the West Coast of the United States this week, possibly as early as today.

Note the word "could" in the first sentence of the thread.

I'm very glad that it didn't happen last week! That does NOT, however, mean that it won't strike THIS week, nor that it is LESS likely to strike this week since it didn't strike last week.

The fact is that we haven't gone this long without a Mega-Quake since before humanity invented the wheel... and seismic conditions are ripe for it.

I repeat: This week there WERE additional "foreshock" quakes that warn of increasing seismic instability on the West Coast.

You will note on the USGS live earthquake map that there was a 6.0 in Southern Mexico at 1:20 this morning (PST). That signals increasing West Coast instability both north AND south of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

This week there have also been many more small quakes on the boundary between the Juan de Fuca and the North American plate than one usually sees. Normally most small quakes in Washington and Oregon are in the mountains, the Cascades and the Olympics. To see so many quakes just offshore is extremely unusual.

There's also a wealth of statistical information regarding historical earthquake activity. The graph below represents the total strength of all earthquakes worldwide of magnitude 4 and above each year. It may be found at dlindquist.com.

You will note that there appears to have been a marked increase in the total strength of worldwide seismic activity beginning with the 2004 Boxing Day quake in Indonesia.

(Much of the decrease that appears in 2008 is an artifact of the data. In 2008, USGS decided to stop archiving quakes below magnitude 5, because there were so many of these smaller quakes being recorded worldwide. Consequently, you will see this dip in 2008 in all graphs that include archived quakes of magnitude 4 or below.)


To see the comparative strength of specific seismic events, you really need to look at each month individually.

In this graph, you can see clearly that the large subduction zone events occurring worldwide since the end of 2004 have dwarfed any of the earthquakes in all of the previous 40 years.

So, while I'm very glad that our CSZ event didn't happen last week, I'm also tending to my preparations every day. I'm going to pick up more of my asthma medication at the pharmacy today, and add a few more canned goods to my stores. Preparing for the largest disaster ever to strike the United States doesn't just happen overnight. I've been preparing for the last three years, and I'm still not confident that we're "ready".

Thank God you personally don't have to be in Monterey right now. If I had a choice, I wouldn't be on the West Coast, either.

-- Paravani

You wouldn't be this guy's brother...would you?

 

[westwall]

Earthquake prediction is where volcanic prediction was prior to St. Helens. When we get a major subduction quake on the West Coast, we will understand a great deal more than we do at present, because of the amount of monitoring that is being done at present.

Tanya Atwater, taking into account the periodicity of the subduction quakes on the Mexican coast, was able to place seismic monitors prior to the quake, and catch the Mexico City quake. The periodicity of the Cascadia subduction zone is much less even than that of the subduction zone along the Mexican Coast. So, predicition is more difficult.

However, the geologists and seismologists are watching present events very closely.

I've known Tanya for a very long time. She does very good work and was one of the first to bring the black smokers to the attention of the world.

 

[paravani]

(Please notice that all the posters who are most critical of this thread live elsewhere -- in Nevada, New Mexico, Philadelphia, and Utah -- and that all the posters who actually live around here have had something constructive to add to the discussion.)

We all fail because we are feeding into this, true seismologists would read one line and log off after laughing aloud first.

No, they wouldn't. They would say quite simply that predicting earthquakes is currently beyond our ability and then use the thread as an opportunity to educate the readers on earthquake preparedness.

Well, this sounds like a very intelligent and well-reasoned response. I'm impressed with your brilliance.

So now, won't you please tell us all exactly what preparations you think will be necessary to survive a Cascadia Subduction Zone event and its aftermath?

If you lived here on the West Coast, instead of in your safe little hidey-hole in Nevada, what would you be doing to prepare for a Cascadia Subduction Zone event of 9+ magnitude?

Do you even know what the aftermath of the CSZ event will look like? Have you bothered to read the rest of the thread before posting your brilliant critique of its premise?

How much do you actually know about the West Coast and the predicted aftermath of a CSZ event?

For instance, given that the vast majority of our electric power is generated by hydroelectric dams, many of which will fail (as described in posts #50 and #63) in a magnitude 9+ quake, how long do YOU estimate that we'll be without power?

Or water?

Or food?

Or shelter?

Can you predict which areas will flood the worst, and why?

Do you know what most people who have made preparations expect to do when other folks need help in the aftermath of such a quake?

Three guesses -- and the first two don't count, because Huggy already painted an excellent picture of it in his posts.

That's right -- most people who will have food, fuel, and water stored up are prepared to kill the survivors who don't have stores of food, fuel, and water. Don't believe me? Check out the "prepper" forums and ask the folks there what they are planning to do in the event that a disaster strikes.

They will kill to protect the rations they stored in advance.

My hubby and I don't want to have to kill anyone, so we moved to a neighborhood that's isolated from the cities by rivers and bridges, where others who are also prepared have chosen to live for much the same reasons: there's clean water in the creek, the hunting is good out here, the trees are plentiful, and the population is sparse. The power fails several days every winter, so we all know what to do when it happens, and most of us have generators.

So, you were saying ...

Oh, right -- you were saying something about educating people how to prepare.

Great idea! Let's hear it! You sound like you know everything, so go ahead, educate us how to prepare!

-- Paravani

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right...

... is `cause dey makin' all dem porn movies in North Ridge...

... an' all dey make dem porn stars do...

... is wear condoms so dey don't get the AIDS...

... an' die like dey s'posed to...

... so dey gonna have a big earthquake...

... an' Calipornia gonna slide off into the ocean...

... an' dey all gonna die."

 

[Politico]

Sooo. It didn't work out. Ok then.

 

[paravani]

... Because if you were on the West Coast, you'd know that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will affect mainly Washington and Oregon.

California's big quake fault is the San Andreas.

... and considering your post below, it would be really, really ironic if the next New Madrid Mega-Quake struck your end of the world before the Cascadia Subduction Zone event struck ours...



-- Paravani

Granny says, "Dat's right...

... is `cause dey makin' all dem porn movies in North Ridge...

... an' all dey make dem porn stars do...

... is wear condoms so dey don't get the AIDS...

... an' die like dey s'posed to...

... so dey gonna have a big earthquake...

... an' Calipornia gonna slide off into the ocean...

... an' dey all gonna die."

 

[Koios]

^^^Bump!