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We know why you are so desperate cons.
The Statistical State of the Presidential Race - NYTimes.com
The Statistical State of the Presidential Race - NYTimes.com
Furthermore, there tends to be less movement in the polls in reasonably close elections than in blowouts, when the trailing candidate can sometimes receive a dead-cat bounce, or when the front-runners advantage grows from large to larger if the trailing candidates supporters are too despondent to turn out, as may have been the case for Walter Mondales Democrats in 1984.
And indeed, volatility has been low throughout the campaign. Just as in the stock market, past volatility seems to predict future volatility in the polls.
So this is why, despite the importance of the big picture, we will also need to sweat the small stuff this week. It seems plausible that by seven days from now, the consensus of data could point toward anything from Mr. Obama being a two-point favorite (about where the race was before the conventions) to being as much as six points ahead (as some of his stronger state polls seem to imply). Likewise, he could be at anywhere from about 47 percent of the vote (if his numbers recede from a convention bounce) to 50 percent (if his bounce holds and he inches forward as undecided voters commit.)
This makes an enormous amount of difference. Based on the way that our forecast model calculates it, a candidate ahead by two percentage points at this stage would be about a two-to-one favorite to win odds that Mr. Romney might have to accept at this stage, improving his position enough to make further gains later. But a candidate ahead by six points would have around a 90 percent chance of victory.