We got problems friends!!!

[will]

Hi team.
Im Will.
I beleive within 2 years China will retake Taiwan by force.
And for the record the bluntny put it to the U.S and said they would.
Ive notice China has 200,000 troops in Hsiamen and 200,000 troops in and 200,000 troops in Fuchou.
All in operating in a tight combat readiness.
Just wait and watch....
Will

 

[janeeng]

Welcome Will, nice to meet you! Janeen here, but go by janeeng. Glad to have you here. A very interesting post!

 

[Creek]

I'm creek...I'll address your post with some thought..just wanted to get a quick welcome in....."Welcome Will"!!!..

Creek

 

[NightTrain]

Hi Will

I disagree.

While China does indeed have a huge Army, they still couldn't take Taiwan - we wouldn't allow it, and I doubt even the French would argue in the UNSC against retaliatory measures. They've got a massive amount of bodies, but their equipment is primitive compared to NATO forces...

The wild card here, of course, is nukes. If China were to stage a blitzkrieg and take Taiwan overnight (which they could do if the preparations were undetected) and threaten nuclear response to any interference, they just might. However, they'd be thrown out of the WTO plus very hurtful economic sanctions, and that would put them back into North Korea's current isolation situation.

I was reading something similar to this scenario about China invading and annexing Tibet back in '62, recently. The difference today is that there isn't a USSR backing them up.

I really don't think they'll do it. They've got too much to lose. If things get tight economically, they'll start having civil unrest... and we know what happens when that happens - more Commie collapses after bloodshed during civilian protests.

 

[jxxxmy]

It won't happen.

Taiwan is not worth the war or the stigma for China. What would they gain even by a successful invasion?
A little island with very little resources. Taiwan has excellent infrastructure and technological capacity but these would be destroyed in event of a war. And China within the next five to ten years will surpass or equal Taiwan in these.
An invasion would be costly in casaulties, and costs. And it would spark certain war with the United States.

China would most likely try to take over some small islands claimed by the Philippines. These tiny islands are laden with billions and billions of dollars in oil. This, especially since the US just pillaged Iraq, seems to be a more logical target.

 

[5stringJeff]

My two cents on Taiwan...

The Chinese Navy would get wiped out by the American Navy if they tried to sail over to Taiwan. And there's no way that that many paratroopers would get past any navy guarding the island. So China is not going to be able to take it by force.

As far as it not being in China's best interest... they are ideologically blinded by the fact that Taiwan has established a democratic government as a separate country. I don't doubt that, given the chance, they would invade, regardless of what they would gain monetarily.

 

[NightTrain]

I really don't think it'll happen either. They want it, badly.

Because it's a capitalist economy that takes in billions in trade per year.

Because it's a peaceful nation, we won't allow it to happen, and the UNSC won't allow them to take it without a war, and the Red Chinese know it. They have as much of a chance of beating us as Saddam did in conventional war, although the costs will be higher... nuclear exchange is always a possibility that no one wants, even the Chinese. Or Gooks, if you prefer

 

[Ike]

China will not invade Taiwan.

It wants to.

Chinas leaders don’t want to do it for financial gain-there is little to none of that to be had.

China wants to do it for symbolism. The communists are obsessed with it.

Luckily, the die-hard communists will be dead anyways in the next 20 years. They are currently quite old. Once they die, their antiquated way of running a country will die with them.

China strategists are not stupid. They see the same thing we do; war with Taiwan means war with the United States and a number of other well equipped, well armored countries.

The only thing they could do is threaten nuclear war. The United States would call that bluff and if the US didn’t, Japan or some other country would.

Red China?
Give it some time...it will turn pink.

-The brilliant Canadian.

 

[preemptingyou03]

Red China can either become Pink China, (as someone just said) or the Soviet Union of the 21st Century. This "War on Terror" may just be a prelude to Cold War II.

 

[Avatar4321]

I disgree. I dont think China will be a problem much longer. The communists are already compromising. They just legalized private property. They are absorbing more capitalist idea. as they start to begin to allow economic freedom, people will begin wanting more freedom. its a slippery slope. people will continue to demand more freedom and the government will be toppled.

While i dont think this toppling will happen immediately. i do think we will see signs of it within the next decade or so. China will probably last longer than the Soviets did. They are more economicly stable, but they will have inner turmoil before long.

 

[dilloduck]

I don't think it will happen either. They are far to smart to risk world condemnation for something they don't need. Hong Kong will suit their needs for now and they are already having trouble there.

 

[freeandfun1]

Originally posted by jxxxmy
It won't happen.

Taiwan is not worth the war or the stigma for China. What would they gain even by a successful invasion?
A little island with very little resources.

And the second largest cash/gold reserves outside the USA....

Prestige
Nationalism (you guys can't forget that China is very nationalistic)
Pride (Asians don't like losing face)
etc.

I agree that I don't think it will happen any time soon, but China is growing at an exponential rate and I don't just mean their population. Their economy and their demands on natural resources as well. I have no idea when this will push them to start becoming more aggressive, but at some point it will.

Remember when the spy plane was forced down.... the Chinese became united just based on that one little incident. Just think what would happen if they staged their own little Gulf of Tonkin incident somewhere in the Taiwan Straits??!!!