Watching the Virgnia House of Delegates

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Tech_Esq, Nov 3, 2009.

  1. Tech_Esq
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    Tech_Esq Sic Semper Tyrannis!

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    100 seats

    22 R unopposed

    8 D unopposed

    1 I unopposed

    31 seats unopposed

    Republicans currently hold a 8 seat advantage (but 2 independents vote with the Reps making it more like 10) in the House of Delegates.
    Swingstateproject.com has the following analysis of the closely contested races:

    35th - Likely Dem

    23, 44, 51, 52, 64 - Leaning Dem (one of those would be a pickup)

    3, 21, 32, 34, 42, 67, 86, 93 - Tossup (5 Dems seats, 3 Rep seats)

    6, 13, 17, 83 - Lean Rep (one of those would be a pickup)

    7, 14, 73 - Likely Rep

    Swing State Project

    The top of the ticket?

    Recent polls have McDonnell, the Republican, polling 14 to 16 points over challenger Deeds. In the Lt. Gov. and Atty Gen races, the Republicans are also polling well ahead of their Dem opposition.

    Given that, standard political analysis of the Delegate races is that most of the question marks will go to the side that turns out for the top of the ticket. Why is it important who wins the House? The 2010 census is due to be taken and this house will draw the new district lines for themselves, the state senate and the Virginia US Representatives. This will likely impact US House races in 2012.

    It would not be unlikely that the Dems will lose 4 seats tonight, putting their representation in the Virginia house below 40 seats.
     
  2. sarahgop
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    sarahgop Gold Member

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    i hope the dems will lose many seats.
     

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