Watch Industrial Production for Economic improvement.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jul 3, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Watch Industrial Production for Economic improvement.


    -------------------------------------------------------
    Here are the stats for the past year. The economy has been plunging like the Titanic towards the bottom. When we see that plunge go to zero or better two months running, THEN we will have a Green Shoot. Right now we are in a hell of a lot of trouble.

    INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
    MAY -1.1%
    APR -0.7%
    MAR -1.7%
    FEB -1.5%
    JAN -1.9%
    DEC -2.4%
    NOV -1.3
    OCT +1.5%
    SEP -2.8%
    AUG -1.1%
    JUL +0.1%
     
  2. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    I've gotten heavily short the market the last several days, so here's hoping for disaster!
     
  3. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    at this point i have shifted my portfolio for what it think will be a shaky earning season. i think the market wants to see signs of improvement instead of seeing things as less bad. i don't think we are there yet. but im also ready to make moves if im wrong.
     
  4. Invisible Hand
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    Invisible Hand Rookie

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    Remember the stimulus bill hasn't really kicked in yet. The rebuilding of infrastructure alone will give industrial production a solid boost but it won't reflect on the market for a few more quarters.
     
  5. wimpy77
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    wimpy77 Member

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    the stimulus is moving very slowly. imo too slow.
     
  6. Invisible Hand
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    Invisible Hand Rookie

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    It's always been a downside of Keynesian economics...the lag of government recognition and stimulus legislation.
     
  7. JBeukema
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    JBeukema BANNED

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    Where can I find an introductory explanation of what the numbers Neubarth posts actually mean? :confused:
     
  8. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    Yeah, I confess I'm lost in the weeds on this post, too.

    Not a clue what that means.
     
  9. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    I'm not sure where Neubarth took his numbers from, since he never uses the original source, but the numbers originally are from the Federal Reserve Board's report on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Explanation of what they are and how they are calculated can be found by following the link for "documentation" at the top, and then follow the link to summary of methods. Basically, the index is a measure of change in how much is produced. Currently the index uses 2002 as its base, so the May index number of 95.8 means that US industry is producing approx 95.8% of what it did 7 years ago. Which is not good. What's actually more disturbing is the measure of Capacity Utilization. This measures how much factories are making versus sustainable maximum output (realistic shifts and downtime etc) and right now, it's the lowest ever (well, since 1969 when the series started) at 68.3% compared, to the previous low of 70.9% in 1982.
     
  10. adeel_sami
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    adeel_sami Free-Doom

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    Agreed ..
    If zero remains for a quarter, it's so good.
    And if it turns positive and keep going with the same momentum for 2 quarters, crisis can be very much fixed. ..
     

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