Washington Post admit: "Arrests along Mexico border drop sharply under Trump, new statistics show"

[basquebromance]

we still need the wall though

Arrests along Mexico border drop sharply under Trump, new statistics show

 

[Correll]

"Arrests of foreigners living illegally in the United States surged under Trump. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers made 110,568 arrests between Trump’s inauguration and the end of September, according to the figures published Tuesday, a 42 percent increase over the same period during the previous year."



SO much for needing to vastly increase the size of the agency before increasing deportations.

 

[Pogo]

we still need the wall though

Arrests along Mexico border drop sharply under Trump, new statistics show

Congratulations on graduating to actually posting a ink to something. Must have been torture.

Without clicking into it (because WaPo sets a quota), does it also mention that most illegal immigration comes not from that border but from simply overstaying visas? And that we've known that for years before Rump started selling "walls' to the gullibles?

 

[Correll]

we still need the wall though

Arrests along Mexico border drop sharply under Trump, new statistics show

Congratulations on graduating to actually posting a ink to something. Must have been torture.

Without clicking into it (because WaPo sets a quota), does it also mention that most illegal immigration comes not from that border but from simply overstaying visas? And that we've known that for years before Rump started selling "walls' to the gullibles?

And by most you mean, slightly more than half, with the other half being border crossings.

AND you mean that it used to be the majority route, and could easily become so again.

 

[usmbguest5318]

Existing Barriers Along Southwest Border

Apprehensions At U.S. Border Patrol Sectors in First 10 Months of Fiscal 2017

Southern Border Apprehensions between 2000 and July 2017 (month 10 of fiscal 2017)

What might be reasons arrests are down at the Southern border?

• Fewer people attempting to cross the Southern border, either by not attempting to enter the country there or entering the country elsewhere.
• Border patrol agents with less vigor apprehending people who do attempt to cross the border.
• There are fewer agents patrolling the Southern border.

Reconcile the figures in the WaPo story with this set of claims and facts:

• May 2017 -- Illegal immigration across the southwestern border is down a stunning 76 percent since President Trump was elected (Trump Admin. claim)
  
• April 2017 -- Illegal immigration across the southwest border is down more than 60 percent so far under President Trump (Trump Admin claim)
• U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) in fiscal 2015 (Obama Admin claim) reported ~80% success rate at apprehending people attempting to illegally cross the Southern border, though the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said that for the same period 40% to 55% is their estimate of the Border Patrol's success rate. [Whatever be the correct figure, I have no basis for thinking it's changed materially.]
  • Calculation of the total quantity of people in fiscal 2017 attempting to illegally cross the Southern Border:
    • Using USBP success rate: 388,038 total attempts and 310,531 arrests
    • Using CFR success rate: 564,601 to 776,327 attempts and 310,531 arrests

So, the quantity of people attempting to cross the Southern border are down by 76%, yet arrests are down 24%? Let's look at the math...

• From the article the OP-er cites:
  • "During the government’s 2017 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30, U.S. border agents made 310,531 arrests, a decline of 24 percent from the previous year."
• That means that agents must have made a total of 408,593 arrests at the Southern border in the prior fiscal year.

Thinking about the above collection of claims and facts:

Illegal crossing attempts conform roughly to the "safety in numbers" rule; thus it stands to reason that the greater the quantity of people attempting to cross the border, the greater the quantity of people who manage to successfully do so because there are only so many agents who are "spread thinner" (by time or by geography) as they seek to interdict the crossers. Accordingly, if far fewer people (76% fewer) attempt to cross the border, the existing quantity of agents should be able to interdict a larger percentage of them; consequently, one would expect to observe an increase in the arrest rate of illegal crossers at the Southern border. Yet that is not what the Trump Admin. reports.

​

 

[basquebromance]

it's called the trump effect, folks!

 

[Pogo]

Southern Border Apprehensions between 2000 and July 2017 (month 10 of fiscal 2017)

Why, that graph looks amazingly similar, in the reverse direction, to the ten-year Dow Jones Industrial Average graph. The one that shows a continuous steady rise from 2009 to the present, yet Trumpbots like the OP only see the last few months.

A trend continues over several years but let's attribute it to the Orange guy.

Selective stats -- that's the Rump effect. Also known by the name "self-delusion".

 

[basquebromance]

Dear Dreamers:

You don't have a right to DEMAND anything from America. You're not American citizens. You're here illegally. You're damn fortunate that this is such a compassionate country. You should only be THANKING America. That's all.