Warm Good-Cold Bad

[westwall]

Contrary to the AGW cultists claims that warmth will lead to death and destruction a recent study of China's history shows that the wars were almost allways fought when the prevailing weather conditions were cool leading to widespread crop failures. As has been shown during the RWP and the MWP after that.

AFP: China's wars, rebellions driven by climate: study

 

[The Infidel]

Now why you gotta go and bring logic to the table?

 

[westwall]

Oh I like stirring things up a little from time to time!

 

[Old Rocks]

You think that a rapid climate change due to warming is not going to cause major crop failures?

 

[Quantum Windbag]

You think that a rapid climate change due to warming is not going to cause major crop failures?

Actually, I don't. Flora is well adapted to warm climates, as evidenced by the abundance of tropical rain forests. How may arctic rain forest do you know about?

 

[westwall]

You think that a rapid climate change due to warming is not going to cause major crop failures?

Not at all. Plants like warmth if you havn't figured that out yet. And please show me a rapid climate change anyway. You've been telling us the world is going to end since 1970 and so far the planet is just toolin along. I guess the Earth didn't get your memo.

 

[sparky]

lotta folks missed that memo ww.......and yeah, we're still toolin to pedition......

 

[Old Rocks]

An older report by scientists rather more knowledgable than the yap-yaps on this board.

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

R ecent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread
climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For
example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since
the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was
accompanied by significant climatic changes across most
of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as
large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the
last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age
climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the
current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and
great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.
Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system
was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming
and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility
of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The
abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models
typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence,
future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate
surprises are to be expected.

 

[editec]

Contrary to the AGW cultists claims that warmth will lead to death and destruction a recent study of China's history shows that the wars were almost allways fought when the prevailing weather conditions were cool leading to widespread crop failures. As has been shown during the RWP and the MWP after that.

AFP: China's wars, rebellions driven by climate: study

Truth is truth.

But pushing a truth to an absurdity isn't advancing truth..

It's good to be warm, but it's not good to be boiling

Its good to be cool, but it's not good to be frozen.

Seriously.. is this something you truly don't understand?

 

[Oddball]

Who said anything about boiling or being frozen?

 

[westwall]

An older report by scientists rather more knowledgable than the yap-yaps on this board.

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

R ecent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread
climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For
example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since
the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was
accompanied by significant climatic changes across most
of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as
large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the
last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age
climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the
current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and
great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.
Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system
was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming
and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility
of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The
abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models
typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence,
future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate
surprises are to be expected.

Wow, I actually wasted a good part of an hour reading that report. Some pertinent points to make about it.....They say on page 10 and 11 "Our ability to understand the potential for future abrupt changes in climate is limited by our lack of understanding of the processes that control them. For example, mechanisms proposed to explain abrupt climate shifts do not fully describe the patterns of variability seen in either the paleoclimate or the historical records."

I'll leave you to figure out what that means.

They have this amusing chart(see below) which is supposed to be an anolog for how the "tipping point" (my words) will occur.

Further down on page 11 they state

" Despite the recognition that extreme shifts in the climate system can occur, little information is available on whether transitions between climate states are possible under modern or near-future conditions and whether such transitions would be abrupt."

Then on page 14 they decide

" Although more regionally limited, the apparent change in El Niño behavior toward generally warmer and wetter conditions around 1976 (Nitta and Yamada, 1989; Trenberth, 1990; Graham, 1994) could also be considered an abrupt change. Thus, studies of abrupt climate change overlap with studies of ice"

That way they can classify normal climate variables that are well known as "abrupt climate change events" (to further terrify weak bladdered folks like old fraud and konrad). They then go on to point out how indeed civilizations have indeed been affect by "abrupt climate change" while neglecting to mention that it was a COOLING CLIMATE THAT CAUSED THE PROBLEMS.

Then on page 16 they are forced to admit

"Recent research has shown that human activities are affecting climate, but it is often difficult to separate human-induced changes from those occurring naturally (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001b). The question arises whether anthropogenic influences will trigger abrupt climate change. It is not now possible to answer that question, because the processes that cause abrupt climate change are not sufficiently understood."

They then spend multiple pages trying to show evidence of "abrupt climate change" and use the Younger Dryas as their model and finally have to admit

"Briefly, the data indicate that cooling into the Younger Dryas occurred in a few prominent decade(s)-long steps, whereas warming at the end of it occurred primarily in one especially large step (Figure 1.2) of about 8°C in about 10 years and was accompanied by a doubling of snow accumulation in 3 years; most of the accumulation-rate change occurred in 1 year. (This matches well the change in wind-driven upwelling in the Cariaco Basin, offshore Venezuela, which occurred in 10 years or less [Hughen et al., 1996].)

Boy that was fast...not!

All in all a paper that says they really don't know very much about anything. But if you give them loads of money they might be able to tell you something in a few years. This would never pass muster in an exact science like geology or physics. This is a load of mumbo jumbo designed to confuse the natives.

 

[Oddball]

 

[Ravi]

ooooo, a "bold" study, how exciting!

IIRC the Mayan empire fell during a heat wave not a cold spell.

Gotta love these "scientists" and their ironclad belief in their own imaginations.

 

[westwall]

ooooo, a "bold" study, how exciting!

IIRC the Mayan empire fell during a heat wave not a cold spell.

Gotta love these "scientists" and their ironclad belief in their own imaginations.

Ravi,

How kind of you to drop by and spout some drivel

And your memory is incorrect.


Below is an excerpt from a discussion on the Mayan civilization. I must grant that it is all theory of course but you will note that the prevailing temperatures were COLD.


Massive Drought
Dick Gill was a most unusual person to put forward a bold new theory explaining the collapse of Mayan civilization. When he started his hunt for clues, he was actually a banker.


His love affair with the Maya started back in 1968 when he visited Chichen Itza in Southern Mexico while on holiday. The Mayan ruins, he says, really touched him. He resolved to solve the riddle of the Maya collapse - but he still had a banking career to pursue.


In the early 1980s, fate stepped in with a Texas banking crisis. The family bank collapsed, and Gill was suddenly out of work and free to follow his dream. He went to college to study anthropology and archaeology.


His realization of what might have caused the Maya collapse came in a brainwave - it was an explanation that didn't come from books and study, but directly from his own childhood. Gill remembered the devastating droughts in Texas in the 1950s, when farmland was parched and fires raged. The hot, sunny days seemed interminable, and he was left with an emotional understanding of the power of drought.


'His work led him to a dramatic conclusion - that the Maya civilization consisted of millions of people who had died very suddenly.'

He felt sure the Maya had faced a huge drought, but he had no evidence to back up his theory - so he set out to search for clues. One of the first people he turned to was archaeologist Dr Fred Valdez.


Valdez, from the University of Texas, worked deep in the jungles of Belize. He counted Maya farmsteads in order to estimate the likely total population. Fragments of pottery told him when the area was occupied and his work led him to a dramatic conclusion - that the Maya civilization consisted of millions of people who had died very suddenly. Gill knew few factors could account for this - but one of them was drought.


In Gill's eyes, this strengthened his theory, but he still needed direct evidence. It was time to trawl the archives. National records held in Mexico City revealed that, at the start of the 20th century, a drought in the Maya region had lasted three years. Here was evidence that drought could, in fact, occur in this region.


He then stumbled upon older, colonial records from the Spanish authorities in the Yucatan province of Mexico, telling of repeated drought. 'I found this plea for help', he says. 'The crops had been very bad in the year 1795 - they were running out of grain and they were afraid that the terrible death they had seen so often in the past was going to repeat itself again, so they asked for help.'


Gill now had proof of devastating droughts in the past, but not in the key ninth century. Then he discovered an extraordinary coincidence. He'd studied hundreds of papers on meteorology before he stumbled on one entitled 'Dendrochronology, mass balance and glacier front fluctuations in northern Sweden'.


It had been extremely cold in northern Europe at just the time of the Maya collapse, but what could possibly be the link? Gill went back to the meteorological records, and found that one of the high pressure systems in the north Atlantic had moved towards Central America at the start of the 20th century. This was a time of both drought in the Maya areas and extreme cold in northern Europe.




Conclusive proof
The scientists discovered that the ninth century had been the driest time in the region for 7,000 years.


Though the circumstantial evidence was growing stronger, Gill still didn't have direct proof of devastating drought in the Maya areas in the ninth century. He finally got that evidence when a team from the University of Florida visited Lake Chichancanab in Mexico's Yucatan region.


The scientists discovered that the ninth century had been the driest time in the region for 7,000 years.


The team was interested in past climates and measured them by taking cores of mud from the bottom of the lake. The mud had built up over thousands of years - the deeper the mud, the older the shells and seeds it contained.


Back at their labs in Gainesville, they looked at tiny shells from each part of the core, and in particular the two types of oxygen locked in them - heavy and light.


The surfaces of shells from times of high rainfall are dominated by light oxygen. More of the heavy oxygen means the water in the lake was evaporating at that time. A core from the ninth century showed an exceptional surge of heavy oxygen, indicating it was the driest time in the region for 7,000 years.


Here at last was the clinching evidence Gill had been searching for - exceptional drought at the time of the Maya collapse. His quest was over, but it had been an emotional journey of discovery.


'There's a certain satisfaction that I have finally understood what happened to the Maya, but as a human being it's awful to think about what happened', he says.


http://www.world-mysteries.com/Fall_of_of Mayan_civilization.htm

 

[Quantum Windbag]

An older report by scientists rather more knowledgable than the yap-yaps on this board.

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

R ecent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread
climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For
example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since
the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was
accompanied by significant climatic changes across most
of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as
large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the
last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age
climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the
current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and
great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.
Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system
was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming
and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility
of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The
abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models
typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence,
future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate
surprises are to be expected.

There you go again.

Let me explain this to you using words as small as possible. Abrupt climate change is not the same as global warming. Abrupt climate change occurs in less than a decade, global warming has been going on for centuries. We can do nothing about abrupt climate change, if it occurs, because it is unpredictable. You are an advocate of global warming, and believe we can prevent it, because it is predictable.

Get it? You are not talking about abrupt climate change, you are talking about global warming. Every time you post about abrupt climate change you look dumber, so please continue to do so.

 

[westwall]

An older report by scientists rather more knowledgable than the yap-yaps on this board.

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

R ecent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread
climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For
example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since
the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was
accompanied by significant climatic changes across most
of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as
large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the
last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age
climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the
current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and
great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.
Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system
was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming
and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility
of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The
abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models
typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence,
future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate
surprises are to be expected.

There you go again.

Let me explain this to you using words as small as possible. Abrupt climate change is not the same as global warming. Abrupt climate change occurs in less than a decade, global warming has been going on for centuries. We can do nothing about abrupt climate change, if it occurs, because it is unpredictable. You are an advocate of global warming, and believe we can prevent it, because it is predictable.

Get it? You are not talking about abrupt climate change, you are talking about global warming. Every time you post about abrupt climate change you look dumber, so please continue to do so.

Did you read the report? It's a joke.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

An older report by scientists rather more knowledgable than the yap-yaps on this board.

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

R ecent scientific evidence shows that major and widespread
climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For
example, roughly half the north Atlantic warming since
the last ice age was achieved in only a decade, and it was
accompanied by significant climatic changes across most
of the globe. Similar events, including local warmings as
large as 16°C, occurred repeatedly during the slide into and climb out of the
last ice age. Human civilizations arose after those extreme, global ice-age
climate jumps. Severe droughts and other regional climate events during the
current warm period have shown similar tendencies of abrupt onset and
great persistence, often with adverse effects on societies.
Abrupt climate changes were especially common when the climate system
was being forced to change most rapidly. Thus, greenhouse warming
and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility
of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. The
abrupt changes of the past are not fully explained yet, and climate models
typically underestimate the size, speed, and extent of those changes. Hence,
future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate
surprises are to be expected.

There you go again.

Let me explain this to you using words as small as possible. Abrupt climate change is not the same as global warming. Abrupt climate change occurs in less than a decade, global warming has been going on for centuries. We can do nothing about abrupt climate change, if it occurs, because it is unpredictable. You are an advocate of global warming, and believe we can prevent it, because it is predictable.

Get it? You are not talking about abrupt climate change, you are talking about global warming. Every time you post about abrupt climate change you look dumber, so please continue to do so.

Did you read the report? It's a joke.

I didn't bother. It seems he is getting confused about what he is talking about, I have no idea why he equates global warming and abrupt climate change. The reason abrupt climate change is called abrupt is it happens really quick, and it is always the result of some catastrophic even, like a meteor strike or a shift of the Earths magnetic field.

 

[konradv]

You think that a rapid climate change due to warming is not going to cause major crop failures?

Not at all. Plants like warmth if you havn't figured that out yet. And please show me a rapid climate change anyway. You've been telling us the world is going to end since 1970 and so far the planet is just toolin along. I guess the Earth didn't get your memo.

I'm not so sure there would be more crops. Warmer weather would also lead to more crop damaging insects and more sickness, as tropical diseases move into formerly temperate climes.

 

[westwall]

You think that a rapid climate change due to warming is not going to cause major crop failures?

Not at all. Plants like warmth if you havn't figured that out yet. And please show me a rapid climate change anyway. You've been telling us the world is going to end since 1970 and so far the planet is just toolin along. I guess the Earth didn't get your memo.

I'm not so sure there would be more crops. Warmer weather would also lead to more crop damaging insects and more sickness, as tropical diseases move into formerly temperate climes.

Total nonsense as proven by a leading physician and one of THE experts (Paul Reiter) in the field of tropicl diseases has proven. The worst outbreak of Malaria in recorded history was in the former Soviet Union in the 1920's in which around 13 MILLION cases were reported per year and around 600,000 deaths. It even reached up to the arctic circle where in Archangel alone had 30,000 cases where a third of those affected died.

But don't take my word for it. Listen to the man himself.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxtWEW2nKRI]YouTube - The Distortion of the Malaria Issue by the UN and Al Gore - from The Great Global Warming Swindle[/ame]

And please. If you have crops now and you have x number of bugs per acre. Why preytell will that ratio increse due to heat? Hmmm? More ridiculous hyperbole there konrad. The natives aren't fooled by your BS anymore. In fact they're coming with torches!

 

[Quantum Windbag]

You think that a rapid climate change due to warming is not going to cause major crop failures?

Not at all. Plants like warmth if you havn't figured that out yet. And please show me a rapid climate change anyway. You've been telling us the world is going to end since 1970 and so far the planet is just toolin along. I guess the Earth didn't get your memo.

I'm not so sure there would be more crops. Warmer weather would also lead to more crop damaging insects and more sickness, as tropical diseases move into formerly temperate climes.

We have things called pesticides now, perhaps you should read up about those.