Warm Good-Cold Bad part II

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Aug 5, 2010.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Just wanted to add a little more information to the warm vs cold debate and how the Chris's konrads and old frauds of the world think that cold is so much better than what we have.

    While Chris has been bleating about the warmth across Russia and the ensuing wildfires (caused by an excess of fuel brought on by the severe winter that preceeded the current fire season) and the temps across the eastern US, he has been studiously ignoring those areas where it is colder than normal.

    In the southwest it has been far colder than normal. And in South America the winter has been truly epic.

    Snow in Brazil, below zero Celsius in the River Plate and tropical fish frozen — MercoPress

    But that is not the point I want to make here. Warmth for the most part is far preferable to cold. The months of December January, and February see 800 more people die per day than the entire rest of the year. That's correct 72,000 more Americans die in winter than all the rest of the year.

    The three months with the lowest mortality? June, July, and August.

    I have linked the paper by Indur Goklany and just to save old fraud the time I also have linked the sourcewatch hit piece on the good Doctor. Seems they don't have much other than he's apparently a sceptic. However he also worked for the Dept. of the Interior so his source material is pretty solid.

    http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_23.pdf

    Indur Goklany - SourceWatch
     
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  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    "One of the predictions of Global Warming is that there will be wider and wilder swings in the weather, with an overall warming"

    Sure, Walleyes, warm is good. Tell that to the Russians.
     
  3. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    I don't see a lot of Russians being killed by the heat there old fraud. Why don't you tell it to the extra 72,000 Americans who die during the winter, and their families who mourn them.

    And how is that resignation from Evraz coming there old fraud...still polluting I see.
     
  4. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    There's still the matter of the spread of tropical diseases. That's a "warm-bad" scenario. Increases in rainfall to the extent of flooding is also a "warm-bad" outcome.
     
  5. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Wrong again bucko. The ratio stays the same it doesn't magically increase. But that's simple math, no wonder you can't grasp it. Flooding of the Nile was central to the development of the Egyptian civilisation. Flooding helps most other areas too so long as the communities are built away from flood plains. The problems with most third world nations is they build where they shouldn't. That's just simple stupidity. That can be fixed.
     
  6. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    LOL!!! You can't get Americans to move off the MS flood plain or barrier islands without complaints about the 'gubmint' getting into people's business! How are you going to do that around the world? I don't understand what I'm supposedly wrong about. There's no ratio involved that has any bearing on this discussion. It appears to me that you're just throwing things out there to try and confuse. You haven't answered the tropical disease or flood questions at all, IMO.
     
  7. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Why prey tell will tropical diseases increase? They operate independantly of temperature.
    Air travel has been the single largest mechanism for the dispersion of tropical disease.
     
  8. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    100% independently?!?! I hardly think so. Besides, increased air travel would merely exacerbate the spread of disease, rather than being a root cause. Under normal, cooler conditions, tropical diseases would have limited staying power in temperate climes. That equation changes dramatically, if increases in GHGs causes a long-term heat rise.
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Spreading Disease | Union of Concerned Scientists

    Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Spreading Disease
    Climate change affects the occurrence and spread of disease by impacting the population size and range of hosts and pathogens, the length of the transmission season, and the timing and intensity of outbreaks (McMichael, 1996; McMichael et al., 1996; Epstein et al., 1998; Epstein, 1999). In general, warmer temperatures and greater moisture will favor extensions of the geographical range and season for vector organisms such as insects, rodents, and snails. This in turn leads to an expansion of the zone of potential transmission for many vector-borne diseases, among them malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and some forms of viral encephalitis. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall or droughts often trigger disease outbreaks, especially in poorer regions where treatment and prevention measures may be inadequate.

    Mosquitoes in particular are highly sensitive to temperature. The mosquitoes that can carry malaria (Anopheline spp.) generally do not develop or breed below about 16° C, and the variety that transmits dengue fever (Aedes aegypti) is limited by winter temperatures below 10° C. Mosquito survival also drops at their upper temperature threshold, about 40° C. With sufficient moisture, warmer temperatures will generally cause an increase in mosquito abundance, biting rates, and activity level, and will accelerate the incubation of the parasites and viruses within them.

    Warmer global temperatures will allow an expansion of the geographic range within which both the mosquito and parasite could survive with sufficient abundance for sustained transmission. Model predictions indicate that a 3° C global temperature rise by 2100 could increase the number of annual malaria cases by 50-80 million (not considering factors such as local control measures or health services) (Martens et al., 1995). The largest changes will occur in areas adjacent to current risk areas, at both higher altitudes and latitudes. In these regions, a temperature increase can convert areas that are malaria-free into areas that experience seasonal epidemics. In many cases, the affected populations will have little or no immunity, so that epidemics could be characterized by high levels of sickness and death
     
  10. Douger
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    Douger BANNED

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    Go study murkin.
    aegis aegyptii
     

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