War Games: Guarding Pakistan's Nukes

[onedomino]

In a rash of news articles around mid November it was revealed that America has spent about $100 million in an effort to get the Pakis to better guard their nuclear weapons. It is reported that they possess between 50 and 150 devices. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/washington/18nuke.html?hp. Certainly it is prudent to help Pakistan be absolutely sure that the nukes are safe. Despite public pronouncements to the contrary, the Pentagon is less than sanguine about the security of Paki nuclear weapons. http://www.guardian.co.uk/pakistan/Story/0,,2220126,00.html. In fact, the architect of the US troop surge in Iraq, Fred Kagan, apparently called the White House to have it consider a wide range of negative scenarios in Pakistan. And this was around the beginning of December well before the turmoil caused by the recent Bhutto assassination. Of course considering all possible future demands on the US military is only prudent, and it is what guys like Kagan get paid to do. While I do not think some of the Kagan scenarios are likely, it gives one great pause to consider our challenges if the following were to occur simultaneously:

- The need to seize Pakistan's nukes: imagine trying to war game that, much less actually attempting to do it.
- The need to rush thousands of US troops into the tribal areas of western Pakistan to fight the terrorists hiding there.
- The need to militarily help occupy Islamabad and the provinces of Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan if requested by a "fractured Pakistan army."

Kagan has argued that the rise of Sunni Islamic extremism in Pakistan, coupled with Paki army infiltration, and terrorists from the western provinces, might be enough to seize power. Extremists cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Clearly, if that were about to unfold, America would have to try to stop it...but could we?

Is Pakistan very far away from an Islamic extremist coup? How much has the Paki army been infiltrated? We never thought it would happen in Iran, but of course it did.

Al Qaeda Network Expands Base in Pakistan

complete article: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/30/world/asia/30pakistan.html?hp

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The Qaeda network accused by Pakistan’s government of killing the opposition leader Benazir Bhutto is increasingly made up not of foreign fighters but of homegrown Pakistani militants bent on destabilizing the country, analysts and security officials here say.

In previous years Pakistani militants directed their energies against American and NATO forces in Afghanistan and avoided clashes with the Pakistani Army. But this year they have very clearly expanded their ranks and turned to a direct confrontation with the Pakistani security forces while aiming at political figures like Ms. Bhutto, the former prime minister who died when a suicide bomb exploded as she left a political rally Thursday.

The expansion of Pakistan’s own militants and their increasing links with Al Qaeda is a shift deeply troubling to the United States, which has been trying to help stabilize this volatile nuclear-armed country on the front line of the Bush administration’s fight against global terrorism.

It is also one that Pakistan’s own government has been loath to admit, but which Ms. Bhutto had begun to acknowledge publicly in her many warnings that the greatest threat to her country lay in religious extremism and terrorism...

...But Al Qaeda in Pakistan now comprises not just tribesmen from the border regions but also Punjabis and Urdu speakers and members of banned Pakistani sectarian groups and Sunni extremists groups, Najam Sethi, editor of The Daily Times, wrote in a front-page analysis. “Al Qaeda is now as much a Pakistani phenomenon as it is an Arab or foreign element,” he wrote.

"We have irrefutable evidence that Al Qaeda, its networks, and cohorts are trying to destabilize Pakistan which is in the forefront of the war against terrorism,” said Brig. Javed Iqbal Cheema, the director of the National Crisis Management Cell, and main spokesman for the Interior Ministry.

 

[JimH52]

This is as frightening as it gets. Screw Iran, Pakistan should be our biggest worry.

 

[onedomino]

This is as frightening as it gets. Screw Iran, Pakistan should be our biggest worry.

Pakistan is the most dangerous country on Earth. What happens when you mix an unreliable military with Islamic extremism, uncontrolled rebel territory, political chaos, and nuclear weapons?

 

[onedomino]

January 6, 2008

U.S. Considers New Covert Push Within Pakistan

By STEVEN LEE MYERS, DAVID E. SANGER and ERIC SCHMITT
This article is by Steven Lee Myers, David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt.

complete article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/w...&ex=1200286800&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

WASHINGTON — President Bush’s senior national security advisers are debating whether to expand the authority of the Central Intelligence Agency and the military to conduct far more aggressive covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

The debate is a response to intelligence reports that Al Qaeda and the Taliban are intensifying efforts there to destabilize the Pakistani government, several senior administration officials said.

Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and a number of President Bush’s top national security advisers met Friday at the White House to discuss the proposal, which is part of a broad reassessment of American strategy after the assassination 10 days ago of the Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto. There was also talk of how to handle the period from now to the Feb. 18 elections, and the aftermath of those elections.

Several of the participants in the meeting argued that the threat to the government of President Pervez Musharraf was now so grave that both Mr. Musharraf and Pakistan’s new military leadership were likely to give the United States more latitude, officials said. But no decisions were made, said the officials, who declined to speak for attribution because of the highly delicate nature of the discussions.

Many of the specific options under discussion are unclear and highly classified. Officials said that the options would probably involve the C.I.A. working with the military’s Special Operations forces.

The Bush administration has not formally presented any new proposals to Mr. Musharraf, who gave up his military role last month, or to his successor as the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who the White House thinks will be more sympathetic to the American position than Mr. Musharraf. Early in his career, General Kayani was an aide to Ms. Bhutto while she was prime minister and later led the Pakistani intelligence service.

But at the White House and the Pentagon, officials see an opportunity in the changing power structure for the Americans to advocate for the expanded authority in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country. “After years of focusing on Afghanistan, we think the extremists now see a chance for the big prize — creating chaos in Pakistan itself,” one senior official said.

The new options for expanded covert operations include loosening restrictions on the C.I.A. to strike selected targets in Pakistan, in some cases using intelligence provided by Pakistani sources, officials said. Most counterterrorism operations in Pakistan have been conducted by the C.I.A.; in Afghanistan, where military operations are under way, including some with NATO forces, the military can take the lead.

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[Annie]

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Well it's not 'covert' anymore. Did you see this? *Satire Alert*

http://www.scrappleface.com/?p=2844

NY Times, CIA Launch Joint Overt Operations Unit
by Scott Ott for ScrappleFace · 7 Comments

(2008-01-06) — After years of working together informally, The New York Times and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) today publicly announced the launch of a joint effort dubbed ‘Overt Operations, Pakistan Sector’.

The revelation comes on a day when the Times reported that the Bush administration may expand anti-terrorist activities in tribal areas of Pakistan, near the Afghanistan border, according to unnamed sources present at a top-secret briefing Friday.

“Overt operations,” an anonymous Agency source explained, “are similar to the better known covert operations — very top secret, hush-hush and all that — except that we publish details about our plans in advance through the New York Times out of a sense of fairness and compassion toward the folks from al Qaeda.”

By creating this formal partnership, the CIA hopes to reduce the likelihood that anyone on its staff or in the State Department could be charged with treason for revealing national security secrets to the enemy in time of war.

This is more scary:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article3137695.ece

January 6, 2008
For sale: West’s deadly nuclear secrets

A WHISTLEBLOWER has made a series of extraordinary claims about how corrupt government officials allowed Pakistan and other states to steal nuclear weapons secrets.

Sibel Edmonds, a 37-year-old former Turkish language translator for the FBI, listened into hundreds of sensitive intercepted conversations while based at the agency’s Washington field office.

She approached The Sunday Times last month after reading about an Al-Qaeda terrorist who had revealed his role in training some of the 9/11 hijackers while he was in Turkey.

Edmonds described how foreign intelligence agents had enlisted the support of US officials to acquire a network of moles in sensitive military and nuclear institutions.

Among the hours of covert tape recordings, she says she heard evidence that one well-known senior official in the US State Department was being paid by Turkish agents in Washington who were selling the information on to black market buyers, including Pakistan.

The name of the official – who has held a series of top government posts – is known to The Sunday Times. He strongly denies the claims.

However, Edmonds said: “He was aiding foreign operatives against US interests by passing them highly classified information, not only from the State Department but also from the Pentagon, in exchange for money, position and political objectives.”

She claims that the FBI was also gathering evidence against senior Pentagon officials – including household names – who were aiding foreign agents.

“If you made public all the information that the FBI have on this case, you will see very high-level people going through criminal trials,” she said.

Her story shows just how much the West was infiltrated by foreign states seeking nuclear secrets. It illustrates how western government officials turned a blind eye to, or were even helping, countries such as Pakistan acquire bomb technology. ...

 

[onedomino]

At what point does revealing military and/or nuclear secrets become treason? Individuals convicted of such activity should receive the maximum punishment specified by law. The Rosenbergs were executed. Regarding the article above, would the individual who passed US nuclear secrets to Turkey, and on to Pakistan, be subject to such a sentence? I thought that the US Navy guy, John Walker, who passed our communications codes to the Soviets should have received the death penalty. Had we gone to war with the Soviets with compromised communications codes, Walker would have been responsible for thousands of American deaths, and perhaps US naval defeat.

 

[onedomino]

It seems that we can keep nothing secret. They might as well broadcast NSC meetings live on the radio.

 

[Annie]

It seems that we can keep nothing secret. They might as well broadcast NSC meetings live on the radio.

It almost seems like it's purposeful.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7172440.stm

Sweden misplaces military secrets
Sweden's military is investigating a major security breach after a member of staff left a memory stick holding classified data on a public computer.

The story was reported by Aftonbladet newspaper, which was given the device by a member of the public who found it at a computer centre in Stockholm.

The paper returned the stick, which the military said included information on security threats in Afghanistan.

A military spokesman said the incident was being taken very seriously.

"It's primarily a matter of security for our soldiers," said Colonel Bengt Sandstrom of the Military Intelligence and Security Service (Must) in a statement.

"This is also a serious matter from a legal standpoint. Carelessness with regards to classified information is an offence that is punishable by up to six months in prison."

The statement said an employee had acknowledged the loss of the chip to his superiors.

The memory stick - a removable device for holding computer data, about the size of a key - contained documents about improvised explosive devices and mines in Afghanistan, as well as information about other countries including the US. Some of the data was classified.

Must is currently analysing the contents of the stick to assess the possible damage that the incident could have caused, the statement said.

Col Sandstrom was due to meet military attaches of the countries concerned to discuss the incident, it added.

 

[onedomino]

"Carelessness with regards to classified information is an offence that is punishable by up to six months in prison."

Sweden...why doesn't that level of punishment for something so serious surprise us? Losing classified data in Sweden carries the same potential punishment as possession as 2 oz. of pot in Texas. Whoever wrote that law in Sweden had just smoked 2 oz. of pot.

 

[onedomino]

Pakistan Hits Out at UN Nuclear Chief

complete article: http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/missiles/Pakistan_hits_out_at_UN_nuclear_chief160014751.php

Agence France-Presse | Jan 10, 2008

Islamabad: Pakistan rejected the UN nuclear chief's criticism of its atomic weapons safety Wednesday, saying its arsenal would not fall into the hands of extremists and chastising his "irresponsible" remarks.

Foreign Office spokesman Mohammad Sadiq told a weekly press briefing that Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), should "be careful about his statements and ought to remain within his mandate".

"Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapons state," he said.

"Our nuclear weapons are as secure as any other nuclear weapons state. We therefore believe statements expressing concern about their safety and security are unwarranted and irresponsible."

The response followed ElBaradei's reported remarks to the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat on Tuesday.

He was quoted as saying he feared "chaos... or an extremist regime could take root in that country, which has 30 to 40 warheads", and was "worried that nuclear weapons could fall into the hands of an extremist group in Pakistan or in Afghanistan".

-

 

[onedomino]

This place is going off the cliff.

Suicide bombing kills 24 in Pakistan

complete article: http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash.../1199970150261390.xml&storylist=international

1/10/2008, 11:26 a.m. PSTBy ASIF SHAHZAD The Associated Press

LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A suspected Islamic militant walked into a crowd of police guarding a courthouse and blew himself up Thursday, killing 24 others and wounding dozens in the first major attack in Pakistan since the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

The blast at Lahore High Court, minutes before a planned anti-government rally by lawyers, was a bloody reminder of the security threats facing this key U.S. ally ahead of Feb. 18 parliamentary elections.

Echoing an extremist tactic in Iraq, suicide attacks have become as commonplace in Pakistan as in neighboring Afghanistan, adding to rising pressures on President Pervez

 

[ekrem]

At what point does revealing military and/or nuclear secrets become treason? Individuals convicted of such activity should receive the maximum punishment specified by law. The Rosenbergs were executed. Regarding the article above, would the individual who passed US nuclear secrets to Turkey, and on to Pakistan, be subject to such a sentence? I thought that the US Navy guy, John Walker, who passed our communications codes to the Soviets should have received the death penalty. Had we gone to war with the Soviets with compromised communications codes, Walker would have been responsible for thousands of American deaths, and perhaps US naval defeat.

This Sibel Edmonds is a person trying to get rich by saying things.
She is Anti-Turkish to her teeths.

Her claims are:
- Turkey is spying and stealing in USA
- She is discrediting the biggest pro-Turkish lobby ATC
- She says 9/11 hijackers were trained in Turkey
- Also she says Turkey is breaching NPT treaty and sells Nuclear Technology to "rogue states"

And of course, now Turkey is the financier of Al-Qaeda, and Turkish state is a drug-trafficer.

The Highjacking of a Nation
Part 2: The Auctioning of Former Statesmen & Dime a Dozen Generals
By Sibel Edmonds

"...For Al Qaeda’s network Turkey is a haven for its sources of funding. Turkish networks, along with Russians’, are the main players in these [Afghan poppy] fields; they purchase the opium from Afghanistan and transport it through several Turkic speaking Central Asian states into Turkey, where the raw opium is processed into popular byproducts; then the network transports the final product into Western European and American markets via their partner networks in Albania. ... These operations are run by mafia groups closely controlled by the MIT (Turkish Intelligence Agency) and the military. ... The Turkish government, MIT and the Turkish military, not only sanctions, but also actively participates in and oversees the narcotics activities and networks."

http://www.nswbc.org/Op Ed/Part2-FNL-Nov29-06.htm


It is like some Anti-Turkish lobbies have Ms. Edmonds on their pay list and gave her a pen and paper to write the weirdest things, and hope that she receives some credibility because she was once time in FBI as translator.
So this person is not to be taken seriously.