Doesn't look good going into the summer and the upcoming elections. Wish I cold see some reasons to doubt this, but I can't come up with anything. I can however, think of a few things that could mean the numbers could get even worse. Such as a war in the ME (Israel attacks Iran), some kind of natural disaster, or maybe a successful terrorist attack.
snippet:
Back in August 2010, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote the following New York Times op-ed: ” … a review of recent data on the American economy shows that we are on a path back to growth.”
The piece was titled ”Welcome to the Recovery.”
And, indeed, the White House thought the economy had shifted into high gear. GDP had expanded at an average pace of 3.8% over the previous three quarters. And the road ahead looked just as promising. In the Economic Report of the President in February of that year, the Obama economic teams predicted the economy would grow 4.3% in 2011, 4.3% in 2012, 4.2% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Welcome to the Boom.
But Geithner and the White House economic team were dead wrong. In the seven quarters since, the U.S. economy has grown at an average annual clip of just 2.1%, including just 1.7% last year.
And right now, 2012 looks like more of the same. GDP expanded at a mere 1.9% pace in the first quarter.
And after a weak retail sales number today, Wall Street economists have been slashing their second-quarter GDP forecasts:
– Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 1.6% from 1.8%.
– Bank of America/Merrill Lynch cut its forecast to 1.9% from 2.4%.
– Macroeconomic Advisers cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.
– CIBC World Markets cut its forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%.
– Barclays Capital cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.1%
– Action Economics cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.
This analysis from JPMorgan provides a good summary:
After today’s retail sales report our best estimate is that second quarter real GDP is currently tracking a 2.0% annual growth rate, lower than our prior projection of 2.5%. Moreover, we see some downside risk to our new forecast. The largest reason for the downward revision is today’s retail sales report, which lowers our tracking of real consumer spending growth from 2.8% to 2.2%. … In addition, first quarter GDP, which currently prints at 1.9%, looks to be tracking closer to 1.7%. Given the weaker momentum in first half growth, achieving our second half outlook for 2% growth will require more things to go right than wrong, which hasn’t been the case recently.
Welcome to the recession: Wall Street slashes growth forecasts « The Enterprise Blog
snippet:
Back in August 2010, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote the following New York Times op-ed: ” … a review of recent data on the American economy shows that we are on a path back to growth.”
The piece was titled ”Welcome to the Recovery.”
And, indeed, the White House thought the economy had shifted into high gear. GDP had expanded at an average pace of 3.8% over the previous three quarters. And the road ahead looked just as promising. In the Economic Report of the President in February of that year, the Obama economic teams predicted the economy would grow 4.3% in 2011, 4.3% in 2012, 4.2% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014. Welcome to the Boom.
But Geithner and the White House economic team were dead wrong. In the seven quarters since, the U.S. economy has grown at an average annual clip of just 2.1%, including just 1.7% last year.
And right now, 2012 looks like more of the same. GDP expanded at a mere 1.9% pace in the first quarter.
And after a weak retail sales number today, Wall Street economists have been slashing their second-quarter GDP forecasts:
– Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 1.6% from 1.8%.
– Bank of America/Merrill Lynch cut its forecast to 1.9% from 2.4%.
– Macroeconomic Advisers cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.
– CIBC World Markets cut its forecast to 2.0% from 2.3%.
– Barclays Capital cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.1%
– Action Economics cut its forecast to 1.8% from 2.0%.
This analysis from JPMorgan provides a good summary:
After today’s retail sales report our best estimate is that second quarter real GDP is currently tracking a 2.0% annual growth rate, lower than our prior projection of 2.5%. Moreover, we see some downside risk to our new forecast. The largest reason for the downward revision is today’s retail sales report, which lowers our tracking of real consumer spending growth from 2.8% to 2.2%. … In addition, first quarter GDP, which currently prints at 1.9%, looks to be tracking closer to 1.7%. Given the weaker momentum in first half growth, achieving our second half outlook for 2% growth will require more things to go right than wrong, which hasn’t been the case recently.
Welcome to the recession: Wall Street slashes growth forecasts « The Enterprise Blog
