Litwin
Platinum Member
"12/28/18
Ukraine
Both Russian and Ukrainian officials have been forecasting an increase in hostility in 2019, each preemptively blaming the other. On Dec. 17, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia believes Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was preparing some sort of “provocation” near the end of the month. Lavrov’s statement, and similar ones from other Russian officials, “could be interpreted as indications and warnings of Moscow preparing the information space, i.e. setting expectations of renewed violence in the coming weeks,” Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at CNA Corp, wrote in a recent blog post. “Almost every year there is a sizable artillery duel that takes place after the holiday truce (clashes likely to resume after the orthodox new year on January 14th), and so a notable escalation in violence is likely in January.” Yet he also said that a major Russian assault on Ukraine, one designed to seize and hold large areas of territory, is “improbable.” A more dire view can be found in a recent analysis from Catherine Harris, Mason Clark, and Nicole Geis with the Institute of the Study of War. They conclude that Moscow will likely “escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine.” They note in particular recent Russian statements about the possibility of Ukrainian use of chemical weapons."
Moscow has been ratcheting up the disinformation rhetoric. This is often an indicator that the Kremlin intends to use the disinformation rhetoric as an invasion casus-belli.
Related: Russia in Review: Russia Poised to Escalate Ukraine Campaign
