View from Taiwan Regarding Chinese General's Nuke Threat

[onedomino]

PLA Recklessness Could Lead to War
Saturday, Jul 16, 2005,Page 8

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2005/07/16/2003263772

People's Liberation Army Major General Zhu Chenghu's remarks to Hong Kong journalists about using nuclear weapons against the US in a conflict over Taiwan will probably be put down to undiplomatic willy-waving by a soldier out to impress, and -- in terms of PR skills -- out of his depth. That is, at least, how people in China and the US are likely to spin it, if only because to take notice of it in any serious way would be at the very least embarrassing and could have grave consequences toward US-China relations.

It is a standard tactic in both China and Taiwan to have someone make a statement about some controversial policy in a way that it remains plausibly deniable for the government yet gets the information into the public domain.

Yet it is difficult to imagine exactly why the Chinese government might want to confront the US in such a way at this moment. The "Anti-Secession" Law, with its explicit threat against an independent Taiwan, has already given impetus to a rethink of US defense policy regarding China, and has done much to resolve the murky ambiguity surrounding US reaction to China's military buildup toward strategic clarity. When US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld asks just why and for what purpose China is beefing up its armed forces when it faces no external threat, we can see that the days when China was viewed through Clintonian rose-colored spectacles have clearly passed.

Taiwan apart, one of the main causes of tension between the US and China is the question of energy security. US hopes of keeping oil plentiful and cheap have not only been frustrated by the Iraq debacle but also by the soaring demand for oil in China's economy. This is why the bid for US-owned Unocal by China's CNOOC is so controversial. After Zhu's remarks, it's hard to see the US being relaxed enough to let the takeover go ahead. Add to that the fact that a major US defense review is being conducted in which China is likely to figure large, and now even larger, and there are a number or reasons why Beijing might have preferred that Zhu kept his mouth shut.

And yet whatever denials Beijing utters should be taken with a grain of salt. It is important to remember that Zhu is the dean of China's National Defense University. Beijing might say that his remarks do not represent official policy, but they certainly represent thinking at the highest levels of the People's Liberation Army. This is very worrying, because it backs up what other sources have been saying for a while about the PLA: That it is the preserve of gung-ho fantasists who think they can take on the US and win.

Readers might look askance at Zhu's remarks about "losing all cities east of Xian," which sounds more like Doctor Strangelove's General Ripper than sober strategic analysis. Let us not even speculate how people in those cities might feel about being expendable, since the views of the Chinese people are unimportant in Beijing's calculations. Let us just note that this kind of irresponsibility at this level is exactly the attitude that will lead to war. It is simply another part of the primitive psychopathology of the Chinese; they have yet to enter the modern world. Like medieval princelings, they think war is glorious, and to hell with the consequences for ordinary people.

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[Adam's Apple]

Thanks for bringing this to the board. Good to know that those in Washington are taking a serious look at the U.S.'s policies re China. Long overdue in my opinion. The question of "why and for what purpose China is beefing up its armed forces when it faces no external threat" is a very good one. Has anyone heard their explanation? Surely they don't think America plans to attack them when we send billions of dollars their way each year and allow them to purchase our debt. They're too smart for that kind of thinking.

 

[onedomino]

Thanks for bringing this to the board. Good to know that those in Washington are taking a serious look at the U.S.'s policies re China. Long overdue in my opinion. The question of "why and for what purpose China is beefing up its armed forces when it faces no external threat" is a very good one. Has anyone heard their explanation? Surely they don't think America plans to attack them when we send billions of dollars their way each year and allow them to purchase our debt. They're too smart for that kind of thinking.

Military power projects economic and political power. The projection of economic and political power is the fundamental reason China is building up its military strength.

 

[Adam's Apple]

China has economic and political strength. It does not need to project it. That is certainly recognized as a fact by our own government. If China did not possess political strength, would the U.S. be seeking China's help in solving the North Korean problem? Doesn't China hold a seat on the Security Council at the United Nations? Americans are making a big mistake by poo-pooing China as a country to be reckoned with.

 

[onedomino]

China has economic and political strength. It does not need to project it. That is certainly recognized as a fact by our own government. If China did not possess political strength, would the U.S. be seeking China's help in solving the North Korean problem? Doesn't China hold a seat on the Security Council at the United Nations? Americans are making a big mistake by poo-pooing China as a country to be reckoned with.

I am referring to the kind of political power that can create alliances such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the 21st Century’s Warsaw Pact. China is building up its military to project economic and political power in order to compete with the United States. How often have you heard the Chinese complain of "US hegemony?" The Chinese are building up their military and trying to extend their economic and political power because they realize that they are competing for markets and natural resources against powerful countries such as America and Japan; this is especially true regarding oil.

 

[freeandfun1]

Another sobering thought is that it is highly possible and likely, that the military could be making these comments without the government's permission but only because the government, nowadays consisting mostly of bureaucrats whom the military disdains. The military viewed Mao and many that followed after him "Long Marchers" and equals. Today the military looks toward Beijing with contempt in many instances.

We should seriosly worry about a junta taking over in a peaceful coup d'etat and intalling their own "leader". We all need to keep our eyes on China.

One last point... a lot of Chinese in places like Malaysia, Singapore, etc., actually consider themselves Chinese first and Malaysian, Singaporean, Thai, etc. second. It is amazing at how many Chinese that have never even stepped foot into China and whose families are the 3rd or 4th generation to live in a Malaysia, etc., feel a close relationship to China.

People, history repeats itself, so we need to keep our eyes on that part of the world. I sure would hate to see Japan and China start getting into little skirmishes... which is very possible now that Japan has given rights to a Japanese company to drill for oil in the disputed area in the China Sea.