Discussion in 'Iran' started by bill3338, May 6, 2017.

  1. bill3338

    bill3338 Rookie

    May 6, 2017
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    We see in many very credible sources that there is mobility in respect with Iran. The Israeli officials refer to the influence of Iran in Syria (and IRAQ) as "existential" threat. We see an ongoing project to influence the public opinion in the USA.
    We know that the main victims of the brutality of ISIS were the Shia Muslims. Fighters of the Islamic Guard and the Hezbollah protected the Shia populations. So, we can argue that Iran was not provocative in the issue of Syria, but defensive. So, why Israel and USA consider Iran as a terrorist country?
    The reason is that Iran is a democracy (more democracy that the other Islamic states in the region) and moreover a developing state with a great population (85 million plus about 10 million Shia in Iraq). That means they can develop technology (they have many universities).
    Israel knows that no group (namely Hezbollah) can threaten its security if it is not being backed by a developed state. So, Israel is pressuring the USA for a preemptive attack against Iran. On the other hand, Iran knows that has not the ability to defend against an air strike of Israel+USA and the only way not to been humiliated in such case is via Hezbollah.
    Here, we have a deadlock.
    Another problem for Israel is that the public opinion in the USA is against any intervention in the Middle East. Moreover, you cannot have any effect in a State of 85 million population with a simple air strike. You need more massive intervention
    My opinion is that Israel knows that and try to use the Kurdish as a tool for the destabilization of Iran.
    Why do I believe that there is a strategy behind the USA policy in respect of Kurds?
    I think the rational policy would be an agreement between the USA, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, on Syria and Iraq with zones of influence. Now all the parts know that they must come to a compromise. There is no military solution. The problem is that we see that the USA support the Kurds which destabilize Turkey, a traditional ally of the USA in the region. This is no rational interpretation of this strategy.
    As said above, an air strike cannot have any effect on the Iranian economy. Iran is a rapidly developing economy of 85 million population. If you destroy 40-50 buildings, that is nothing. An earthquake of 6.5 Richter, would have a more devasting effect.
    Israel, although it has an incomparable air force, cannot accomplish an effective strike without the help of the USA.
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    Last edited: May 6, 2017

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