USA in need of help?

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by ekrem, Sep 19, 2007.

  1. ekrem
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    ekrem VIP Member

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    http://www.state.gov/p/us/rm/2007/92066.htm

    For me and the political analysts of my trust, USA is admitting to be in deep shit.
    USA is planning for Post-Iraq era. I think it should be common sense, that Turkey will implement its influence and interests in areas of Iraq after USA has left. This is outcome of a clinical assesment of our power and our neighbours' power or even flyflyflyfly-weights as Kurds in Iraq.
    Time is on our side. It is a question of 6-20 months until Turkey gets what it wants in Iraq. Simply by USA "redeploying" and Turkey projecting power with all avaible to there, what is currently by USA presence for different reasons not wholly possible as Turkey wants to do.
    And Turkey does not half things, as it would be the case whilst USA is in Iraq.

    The question where USA is in deep shit is about Iran.
    USA does not want Iran-Turkey gas agreements and mutually built natural gas electricity stations and Hydro-power dams.
    Also USA does not want Turkey to cooperate with Iran in Iraq after USA has left to the disadvantage of US allies like Jordan and Saudi-Arabia.

    If we trust "Stratfor", which i trust as credible and comply to my assumption of things from outside USA, USA does also need someone to counterbalance Iran, and Turkey is the biggest leverage which USA has knocked its door. This assumption bases on USA not attacking Iran.
    http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=293204&selected=Analyses

    There is the question of what USA has to offer for Turkey, which Turkey can not achieve byitself in the region after USA has redeployed and the region is open to Turkey like a women after an cesarean cut, and by this move the action area for other neighbours dramatically narrows in regions where Turkey acts.
    Iran therefore wants to ensure, that Turkey will not project power behind North-Iraq and taht Turkey restricts itself to North-Iraq.
    Iran giving licence to 2 Turkish oil-firms to drill in biggest natural gas field of world, "South-Pars", going to Joint-Veture with Turkey to transport Iranian gas 50/50 to Europe and opening Iranian electricity monopol sector for Turkish Electricity Firms to make major bucks there, is an investment by Iran which will pay for them in long-term. Iranian thinking is possibly to ensure, that Iran can expand into its influence areas in South-Iraq and Lebanon and Turkey has nothing to fear from economical terms by this expansion as Turkey therefore expands directly into Iran.
    Deals with Turkey are economically maybe not rational but by strategic thinking they are from view of Iran.
    Against Arabs, Iran will be possible to force its power projection over them. The only obstacle is Turkey, in case of Turkey not restricting itself to North-Iraq and whirl-pooling Iranian plans. Turkey is another calibre then Saudi-Arabia and in an multiparty open conflict, what would be the case if Turkey expands into Middle and South Iraq would still be the horse to bet on.

    To be honest, i think not that Turkey has an interest in exhausting its ressources to counterbalance anyone in areas which are not primarily our interest areas and an expansion by Iran is not against our primary interests.
    Countries in the region will seek to arrange with Turkey rather then conflicting Turkey. And these arrangements are not negative for Turkey's interest, as by these arrangements the other side offers Turkey more then Turkey offers.

    Of course Lebanon, South-Iraq we also have interests but these are more of economical nature of Soft-Power.
    In the end there live Arabs and not ethnic relatives of Turkey and if we can export our goods there, then it is not really the case who rules there officially or inofficially.

    And Iran extending its influence to these regions? Not that kind of problem for Turkey to exhaust its ressources to stop that Iranian expansion. Allthough stopping Iran is in Turkey's reach.
    In the region no neighbour will try to piss Turkey in areas of Turkish interest, as this will trigger Turkey to act against them and they are then in deep shit like USA is currently generally speaking in reliance to Iraq and Iran.

    Now my questions:
    Do you share my assumptions, that USA needs a counterbalanceing force for Iran after USA "redeploys" completely or frequentially and the only option is Turkey?
    Ans is in this context Nicholas Burns' statements related?
    And what from American view Turkey has to gain by confronting Iran directly and indirectly in the region?
    Confronting is not always military related, the fact to be there and show flag can whirlpool already plans and stop Iranian expansion, which is in Turkey's ability like stratfor correctly analyses.
    From Turkish view exhausting ressources like military substance, economic growth, economic interests for anyones (USA's) interests is not that kind of status we want to be. We would in the end-effect be USA's dog like Israel, Egypt and Saudi-Arabia is and this is against Turkish self-confident interests to project power rekated to our interests in the region and not those of USA.
    Our whole economic opportunities within Iran would be damaged, TPAO will only produce 20 billion m³ natural gas in Iran where Turkish total consumption is between 28-30 billion m³.
    In the end-effect, Turkey would exhaust its ressources and bind its focus totally on Iran whilst Turkish focus is not only in Mid-East, and USA, Israel and Sunnite Arabs will laugh about finding dumb Turks doing the work for them.
    If USA reaches to Turkey with such motive of counterbalanceing Iran, USA must know this, that Turkey knows all this i wrote.

    And the last thing:
    USA's new weapons subvention to Middle-East dogs will not block Iran. It will only force Iran to exhaust more ressources in its strategies.
     
  2. Gunny
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    Gunny Gold Member

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    It's called bullshit politics. No one "needs" your help, and frankly, if you are any indication of Turks in general, y'all are as big a threat as Iran or Syria.
     
  3. DiogenesDog
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    Gunny,

    Your reaction here seems a bit precipitous. I have spent quite a lot of time in Turkey. I started that experience in 1965 on a mountain top stuck out in the Black Sea. I have been in and out of there many times since. By and large I have never had worry one traveling any place in the country alone because the rural Turk loves America. In the cities, I have had some headaches but nothing serious.

    You know and I know that the US military is able to kick any amount of ass that needs being kicked. We are able to reduce every thing standing to rubble and then bounce the rubble as often as we see fit. It will then be the job of the infantry to check out the thermobaric reduced blobs for a pulse. The problem is that there is no armor to speak of on the back side of an Abrams. And worse yet, a Hummer is the result of a low bid, and Strykers will crap out on you in a shallow ditch. That has pretty much been our problem in this current mess. That is why I am a supporter of lots of boots on the ground and an endless supply of cigarettes and Hershey Bars.

    To continue, Turkey is one of the few nations in the region that has a competent NCO corp and thinking corporals. They have been to Ft Gordon. Now, you are free to express your disdain from your perceptions, but remember, in Korea, the Chinese never succeeded in a frontal assault on a Turkish position, nor did they survive to a man an overnight defensive position. The only ax I have to grind with the Turks is their intransigence regarding the Kurds and the Armenians. Turks are a language group. They are not an ethnic entity. They don't like to hear that but I have done the anthropology and the linguistics. The Turks have no problem dealing with the Israelis. Most of those countries do a lot of trade with Israel but they don't speak of it. The Turks are quite open.

    Now, I am going to guess that you have a knot in your web gear regarding the Turk refusal to allow the infantry to pass thru in the outset of the current unpleasantness. Well, when you take the Turk for granted and spring a request for a troop movement on them they are going to be as pissed as you are now. The US Air Force has to request permission just to pull chocks. It is a delicate little dance we play with them.

    We need another Eisenhower and a President that will let him be Ike-like. We have a good supply of Pattons but Ikes are in short supply. I believe that there is one sitting in a staff college with silver birds on his shoulders, he will rise.

    I do find that the original poster offered a very detailed excellent analysis of the current situation. I now have to go back and see if I am able to find any kinks in his circuitry.

    I am as big a fan of lock and loaders like yourself as I am of serious thinkers. For the near future, we are going to have to carry some water to the surrounding national entities and seek their help or call a draft and go all in with what we can pull out of the Bible colleges.

    Did you ever pull embassy duty?

    I AM
     
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  4. Denton
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    Denton Rookie

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    I'm curious about how long Turkey is going to continue to be a secular democracy and not a straight-up Islamic state, complete with Sharia law. Considering the Turkish people are in no way fans of the U.S. I can't see them much liking the concept of doing ANYTHING that might be considered favorable to America.

    As far as I can tell by looking at the last few decades, we don't do too awefully well when it comes to trying to play politics with the countries over there. The best we can do is put off troubles for a later date. Counting on a "secular democracy" that is teetering toward Islamist might not be a very good idea.
     
  5. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    I spent 4 years as a Marine on Fort Gordon. Being a Marine in a small detachment on an Army base is just great duty. Plus as an Instructor I worked for civilians, there was of course an Army Staff NCO as senior instructor of my section, but he wasn't my boss.

    We had the fun of having Turks and Greeks show up at the same time for the same class. They were split in to two classes , one during the day and one in the evening. Personally I didn't see the problem, they all lived in the same barracks and never got into any fights or had any problems. We shared the barracks with Allied Students. They had half and we had half, a wooden wall was put up on all but one floor as I recall. Being married I lived in housing not the barracks though.
     
  6. DiogenesDog
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    DiogenesDog Zen Bonobo

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    to bring yourself up to speed with regard to our relations with Turkey. I believe that you are deficient in your appraisal of US history with them.
     
  7. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    Until and unless the Turkish military is overrun by Islamists Turkey will remain a secular Government. The military has no problem throwing out any Government they think gets to far into religious dogma. They made a thinly veiled threat to the new leader as he was voted in just a short while ago.
     
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  8. DiogenesDog
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    it can be a bit more dramatic. Out on Cypress it can get right smoldering. I am in a weekly interfaith meeting with Greeks and Turks who are Eastern Orthodox. They have one less obstacle. We also have some Armenians and some Kurds who are Syriac Christians but there is still no conflict there.

    I was at Gordon in the summer of 64 for AIT. I had been to basic at Jackson. I was waiting for my security clearance so I went to AIT, then escape and evasion-beta and then to Homestead for Jr. snake-eater school and night land navigation. I would have gone to jump school but my crypto came through and I was off to Ft Devens. A year later I was in Turkey.
     
  9. Denton
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    Thanks for the advice, Diogenes; you appear to think of yourself as a really smart mutt.:clap2:
    It wouldn't be the first time we have been dreadfully wrong in our assessment and our preparations. I don't suppose I have to mention Iran 1979 or the surprise our intelligence community received when the Wall came down and all those smoke-heap cars of East Germany came chugging over for a visit!
    I'm obviously not as smart as the average dog around here, but I do remember those veiled threats issued by the military, and I also recall our government issuing a statement that the Turkish military should stay out of politics.

    While I am not one who served there in the 60's, I know that our relations with them are of the strained nature the last few years. Anti-Americanism is on a sharp rise and the AKP doesn't seem to be wanting to rein it in. It is also cooling its view of Israel and has even made a point of calling it a "terrorist state" a few times. Being one who is current with Turkey, I am sure you recall Erdogan meeting with the Syrian president (speaking of terrorist states) after stiffing Olmert.

    I'm just a yard dog scratching at fleas, so never mind me, but you might want to keep an eye on Turkey and see how Erdogan and the AKP slowly undermine "secular democracy" in Turkey.
     
  10. DiogenesDog
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