US hostility to Iran will strike Europe

[Xea]

Do you know that Iran is aiming American military bases in Germany because of possible American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities? In past we thought that maybe US bases in Europe is to keep peace and protect us, but they just luring faggots from Iran and endanger Europe! For US we are just a human shield and target for Iran! As for me I think that Europe is deeply in shit and I see the only reasonable solution of the problem – EUROPE MUST GET RID OF ALL AMERICAN BASES! I’m sure that US purposely allowed Iran to capture its drone so they have a reason to attack the Islamic Republic! Americans know that Iran can’t get them, but Europe is quite close target for Ahmadinejad! We are in danger and all owing to US!

 

[Ringel05]

Oh look another escapee from the loony bin. It's not a full moon is it?

 

[Colin]

Do you know that Iran is aiming American military bases in Germany because of possible American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities? In past we thought that maybe US bases in Europe is to keep peace and protect us, but they just luring faggots from Iran and endanger Europe! For US we are just a human shield and target for Iran! As for me I think that Europe is deeply in shit and I see the only reasonable solution of the problem – EUROPE MUST GET RID OF ALL AMERICAN BASES! I’m sure that US purposely allowed Iran to capture its drone so they have a reason to attack the Islamic Republic! Americans know that Iran can’t get them, but Europe is quite close target for Ahmadinejad! We are in danger and all owing to US!

Grow a backbone you fucking coward...and stop your pathetic whingeing!

 

[waltky]

'Iran Is Playing A Dangerous Game'...

Top US general: Iran's dangerous game could draw Mid East and US into conflict
December 21, 2011, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta told CBS that Iran could build a nuclear bomb in a year or less, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff issued a warning: "Iran is playing a dangerous game that could ensnare the Middle East, the Middle East and others into conflict and a renewed arms race." During a stop in Afghanistan, the general spoke to CNN of concerns about Iran's ambitions from Iraq to Afghanistan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

He was described as quietly leading the ongoing military planning for an attack against Iran's nuclear weapons if the president gives the order to do so. "We are examining a range of options," said the US general. "Don't push it," he warned Iran. debkafile's military and Washington sources say it should be noted that in the space of 24 hours, America's two top security figures have referred to war with Iran as a realistic and imminent possibility. This is a big step from the customary US references to a military option as being on the table as a last resort for halting Iran's march toward a nuclear bomb still calculated to be some years in the distant future.

Gen. Dempsey went on to say: "My biggest worry is they (the Iranians) will miscalculate our resolve. Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world." There is no guarantee that Israel will give the United States warning if it decides to attack Iran, he said, "But America is sharing intelligence with Israel. We are trying to establish some confidence on the part of the Israelis that we recognize their concerns and are collaborating with them on addressing them," the US general said.

Gen. Dempsey clarified another controversial point when he said the loss of the drone is not the end of US efforts to figure out what Iran is doing. America is gathering intelligence against Iran in a variety of means. "It would be rather imprudent of us not to try to understand what a nation who has declared itself to be an adversary of the United States is doing."

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security

 

[techieny]

I'd like fly a drone right up your stupid ass !

 

[waltky]

Obama carryin' a big schtick...

US carrier is spotted near Iran
Fri, Dec 30, 2011 - OIL: Iran has threatened to close down the Strait of Hormuz, but the US said it would not accept that, and sent a battle group to where Iran is conducting military exercises

A US aircraft carrier entered a zone near the Strait of Hormuz being used by the Iranian navy for wargames, an Iranian official said yesterday amid rising tensions over the key oil-transit channel. “A US aircraft carrier was spotted inside the maneuver zone ... by a navy reconnaissance aircraft,” Commodore Mahmoud Mousavi, the spokesman for the Iranian exercises, told the official IRNA news agency. Iranian planes and vessels took video and photos of the US ship and the weaponry and aircraft it was carrying, he added, according to a report carried by state television. “We are prepared, in accordance with international law, to confront offenders who do not respect our security perimeters during the manoeuvres,” the IRIB network quoted Mousavi as saying. “We suggest that trans-regional forces completely and seriously take any warning issued by any unit of [Iran’s] naval forces,” he said.

The US aircraft carrier was believed to the USS John C. Stennis, one of the US Navy’s biggest warships. US officials announced on Wednesday that the ship and its accompanying carrier strike group moved through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch at the entrance to the Gulf that is the world’s most important choke point for oil shipments. After warnings from the Iranian government and navy this week that Iran could close the strait if threatened by further Western sanctions, the US Department of Defence warned on Wednesday that such actions “will not be tolerated.” The US maintains a navy presence in the Gulf in large part to ensure oil traffic there is unhindered. Iran, which is already subject to several rounds of sanctions over its nuclear program, has repeatedly said it could target the Strait of Hormuz if attacked or its economy is strangled. Such a move could cause havoc in world oil markets, disrupting the fragile global economy.

The Islamic republic is halfway through 10 days of navy exercises in international waters to the east of the strait that have included the laying of mines and the use of aerial drones, Iranian media have reported. Missiles and torpedoes were to be test fired in coming days. The wargames zone covers an area of 2,000km2 in the Gulf of Oman into the Gulf of Aden, Iranian media reported. So far, Iran and the US have limited themselves to rhetoric and naval manoeuvres. However, analysts and the oil market are watching the situation carefully, fearing a spark that could ignite open -confrontation between the longtime foes. The US had proposed a military hotline between Tehran and Washington to defuse any “miscalculations” that could occur as their navies brush against each other. However, Iran rejected that offer in September.

Source

See also:

Getting the Strait of Hormuz straight: an FAQ
29 Dec.`11 - Iran has caused a stir with its threat this week to close down the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were imposed on Iranian oil exports. Here’s why this small body of water generates so much world attention.

1. Where is the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow strip of water that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman (see map). It runs between the Arabian peninsula and Iran, creating a short buffer between the Persian state of Iran to the north and the Arabian nations of Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. At its narrowest point, it is only 30 miles wide.

MORE

 

[High_Gravity]

Do you know that Iran is aiming American military bases in Germany because of possible American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities? In past we thought that maybe US bases in Europe is to keep peace and protect us, but they just luring faggots from Iran and endanger Europe! For US we are just a human shield and target for Iran! As for me I think that Europe is deeply in shit and I see the only reasonable solution of the problem – EUROPE MUST GET RID OF ALL AMERICAN BASES! I’m sure that US purposely allowed Iran to capture its drone so they have a reason to attack the Islamic Republic! Americans know that Iran can’t get them, but Europe is quite close target for Ahmadinejad! We are in danger and all owing to US!

Yeah, Europe needs to get rid of all American Military bases to appease Iran. go fuck yourself you cowardly douche bag.

 

[waltky]

Can the Iranian situation be defused?...

Iran crisis: Can conflict be averted?
11 January 2012 - Iranian military exercises near the Strait of Hormuz in December ratcheted up tension

The long-running crisis between Iran and the West appears to be deepening by the day. A whole series of events - preparations for stepped-up US and Western sanctions against Tehran, Iran's warning to a US aircraft carrier to stay out of the Gulf, the sentencing to death for alleged spying of an American with dual Iranian-US nationality, and the killing of yet another Iranian scientist, which Iran sees as part of a continuing foreign campaign to sabotage its nuclear programme - all add to the sense of drama and a belief that in some way this crisis is coming to a head.

Iran's announcement this week that it has begun uranium enrichment work at the Fordo facility near Qom confirms the fact that the Tehran government, for all the sanctions and the tough talk, is determined to press ahead with its nuclear programme - the very heart of the disagreement between Iran and the West. Discussion of potential military action has swung from the likelihood of Israeli or US air strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure to the possibility of a serious maritime clash in the Gulf should Iran seek to close the Strait of Hormuz with the Americans seeking to reassert the right of free passage.

The story of Iran's turbulent relationship with the West is best described by the complicated intersection of two timelines - the imposition of ever tougher economic sanctions on the one hand and Iran's progress in its nuclear research effort on the other. Crisis points generally loom when new sanctions are being considered and the current case is no exception. Paul Pillar, a veteran US intelligence expert now at Georgetown University, provides a different analogy. He likens tensions between Iran and the US to "a spiral in which each new incident feeds animosity which in turn encourages still more unfriendly actions from the other side". "It is a classic case of hostility begetting more hostility in return," he says.

The US is working up a new round of restrictions on Iran's central bank and the European Union is moving towards strict curbs on Iranian oil imports. Washington is also trying to expand their impact by persuading Iran's key customers in the Far East to scale back their involvement with Tehran. China may be unwilling to play ball but Japan and the South Koreans may be more amenable to US persuasion. With every sign that the Iranian economy is beginning to feel the pain from sanctions, it is little wonder that things are getting tense. Iran's threat regarding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a clear attempt to warn the West that the imposition of reinforced sanctions may have an effect on Western economies, too.

'Sanctions biting'

See also:

US looks for Chinese help against Iran
Thu, Jan 12, 2012 - ASIAN TOUR:The US Secretary of the Treasury is visiting China, Japan and India in an effort to garner support for tougher sanctions against money flowing to Tehran

US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner yesterday in Beijing appealed for Chinese cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation, as he sought Chinese help on the White House’s efforts to toughen sanctions on Iran. Geithner met with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao later yesterday, ahead of Wen’s trip next week to top oil supplier Saudi Arabia, whose additional output would be crucial if China is to replace crude it normally sources from Iran. Geithner emphasized Sino-US strategic as well as economic cooperation in a meeting yesterday with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, slated to become the next Chinese head of state. “On economic growth, on financial stability around the world, on non-proliferation, we have what we view as a very strong cooperative relationship with your government and we are looking forward to building on that,” he told a smiling Xi.

Geithner is in Asia to garner support for tougher US sanctions on revenues flowing to Tehran, which the US accuses of attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear program is for civilian uses. US President Barack Obama authorized a law on New Year’s eve imposing sanctions on financial institutions that deal with Iran’s central bank, its main clearing house for oil export payments. The move would make it difficult for consumers to pay for Iranian oil. China has backed UN Security Council resolutions calling on Iran to halt uranium enrichment activities, while working to ensure its energy ties are not threatened. As a permanent member of the council, China wields a veto. However, it has said the US and the EU should not impose sanctions beyond the UN resolutions.

The EU is already committed to a ban on Iranian crude, but the US might face a tougher sell with China, Japan or India, the top three buyers of Iranian crude by country. Geithner heads to Tokyo after Beijing. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin repeated the country’s longstanding defense about its oil and trade ties with Iran. “China is a major developing country and it has reasonable demand for energy,” Liu said at a regular news briefing. “Regarding this issue, we have repeatedly stated that China has normal and transparent energy cooperation with Iran, and that does not violate Security Council resolutions.” “It is unreasonable for a country to impose its domestic laws as overriding international law and to demand that other countries enforce it. So China believes that normal energy cooperation and reasonable demand are unrelated to the Iran nuclear issue and should not be affected,” Liu said.

China, Iran’s largest oil customer taking about a fifth of its shipments, has already reduced crude purchases for this month and next month as it disputes contract pricing for Iranian crude shipments. Japan will consider cutting back its Iranian oil purchases to secure a waiver from new US sanctions, a government source has said. Indeed, Japan has asked OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to supply it with more oil, Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba said on Tuesday. South Korea is also considering alternative supplies in case the US sanctions cut off Iranian shipments. A boycott by other oil customers could potentially allow China to buy Iranian crude at a discount, reducing its payments to Tehran without forcing it to buy additional oil at a premium on world spot markets.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2012/01/12/2003523053

 

[JStone]

Do you know that Iran is aiming American military bases in Germany because of possible American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities? In past we thought that maybe US bases in Europe is to keep peace and protect us, but they just luring faggots from Iran and endanger Europe! For US we are just a human shield and target for Iran! As for me I think that Europe is deeply in shit and I see the only reasonable solution of the problem – EUROPE MUST GET RID OF ALL AMERICAN BASES! I’m sure that US purposely allowed Iran to capture its drone so they have a reason to attack the Islamic Republic! Americans know that Iran can’t get them, but Europe is quite close target for Ahmadinejad! We are in danger and all owing to US!

Ajad claims there are no gays in Iran so no worries.

 

[waltky]

Iran threatenin' higher oil prices, India not goin' along with sanctions program...

Iran predicts EU sanctions may increase global oil prices by 50 percent
Monday 30th January, 2012 - Iran has predicted that global oil prices would increase by 50 per cent following European Union sanctions on crude oil exports.

Ahmed Qalabani, the deputy oil minister, boasted that measures to curtail exports would send oil prices soaring to between 120-150 dollars a barrel, up from 108 dollars, The Telegraph reports. According to the paper, Iran's parliament has postponed debate on a proposal to halt oil deliveries to the EU, which accounts for 20 per cent of Tehran's exports of crude.

Despite postponing the parliamentary debate, Rostam Qasemi, Iran's Energy Minister, promised that exports to some countries, which he did not name, would be ended "soon". The EU's ban on Iran oil imports is part of efforts by the bloc and the US to pressure the Islamic regime over its nuclear program. A damning report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency in November accused Iran of military-related atomic activities for the first time.

Meanwhile, Mohammed Karim Abedi, a senior Iranian legislator, said that Iran "would not leave enemies' sanctions unanswered and would impose other sanctions on them in addition to closing Iran's oil supplies to Europe." Abedi added that the ban on oil sales to the EU would last between five and 15 years.

Iran predicts EU sanctions may increase global oil prices by 50 percent

See also:

India refuses to cooperate with US on oil sanctions
Monday 30th January, 2012 - India has told US officials it cannot ban Iran oil imports.

India's Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, said on Sunday his country would continue to purchase Iranian oil despite sanctions laid by the US and EU.

On December 31, 2011, US President Barack Obama signed into law new sanctions against Tehran, panalising countries importing Iran's oil or doing transaction with the Islamic Republic's Central Bank.

Speaking in Chicago, where he was on a visit, the Indian finance minister told Press TV: "It is not possible for India to take any decision to reduce the imports from Iran drastically, because among the countries which can provide the requirement of the emerging economies, Iran is an important country amongst them."

India is the world's fourth-largest petroleum consumer and is Iran's second largest oil customer after China.

Source

 

[alexa]

Iran threatenin' higher oil prices, India not goin' along with sanctions program...

Iran predicts EU sanctions may increase global oil prices by 50 percent
Monday 30th January, 2012 - Iran has predicted that global oil prices would increase by 50 per cent following European Union sanctions on crude oil exports.

Ahmed Qalabani, the deputy oil minister, boasted that measures to curtail exports would send oil prices soaring to between 120-150 dollars a barrel, up from 108 dollars, The Telegraph reports. According to the paper, Iran's parliament has postponed debate on a proposal to halt oil deliveries to the EU, which accounts for 20 per cent of Tehran's exports of crude.

Despite postponing the parliamentary debate, Rostam Qasemi, Iran's Energy Minister, promised that exports to some countries, which he did not name, would be ended "soon". The EU's ban on Iran oil imports is part of efforts by the bloc and the US to pressure the Islamic regime over its nuclear program. A damning report released by the International Atomic Energy Agency in November accused Iran of military-related atomic activities for the first time.

Meanwhile, Mohammed Karim Abedi, a senior Iranian legislator, said that Iran "would not leave enemies' sanctions unanswered and would impose other sanctions on them in addition to closing Iran's oil supplies to Europe." Abedi added that the ban on oil sales to the EU would last between five and 15 years.

Iran predicts EU sanctions may increase global oil prices by 50 percent

See also:

India refuses to cooperate with US on oil sanctions
Monday 30th January, 2012 - India has told US officials it cannot ban Iran oil imports.

India's Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, said on Sunday his country would continue to purchase Iranian oil despite sanctions laid by the US and EU.

On December 31, 2011, US President Barack Obama signed into law new sanctions against Tehran, panalising countries importing Iran's oil or doing transaction with the Islamic Republic's Central Bank.

Speaking in Chicago, where he was on a visit, the Indian finance minister told Press TV: "It is not possible for India to take any decision to reduce the imports from Iran drastically, because among the countries which can provide the requirement of the emerging economies, Iran is an important country amongst them."

India is the world's fourth-largest petroleum consumer and is Iran's second largest oil customer after China.

Source

India needs Iran's oil and is on friendly relations with Iran. She has previously had to go along with demands from the US and the west over sanctions because she has been threatened with consequences if she did not. However she has still been buying the oil. The problem has been finding ways to pay for it.

Russia and China are not in agreement with the new sanctions either. There is no belief anywhere, including the US that Iran has made the decision to build nukes.

Iran is possibly going to stop providing oil for Europe much earlier than the time set by the EU. They were going to vote on this last Sunday but have apparently put it off while they properly prepare it.
Iran Vote Delayed On Bill To Cut EU Oil Deliveries

This might have serious consequences for Greece, Italy and Spain who are in dire financial conditions - the reason the date of the ban was put forward for 6 months. However how Germany can call Iran's thinking of stopping the oil flow earlier a "a dangerous escalation in rhetoric" leaves me at a loss. Iran's money has dropped in value by half in the last few months due to all this talk. Obviously she will do whatever she can to give herself an advantage - even if that means moving towards global economic disaster.

On another level I am at a loss as to why there is this apparent big desire from Western Nations, Germany, France, UK and US for a war with Iran - what with all the warships and destroyers around never mind the sanctions. Like David Miliband said a couple of months ago we are in danger of 'sleepwalking into war'. Far better to learn the art of difficult diplomatic discourse.

Here is an idea to solve the issue from a previous IAEA representative

Now, the West is all but isolated in insisting that Iran must not enrich. Most non-Westerners would prefer to see Iran treated like other NPT parties: allowed to enrich uranium in return for intrusive monitoring by IAEA inspectors. My sympathies lie with the non-Westerners. My hunch is that this gathering crisis could be avoided by a deal along the following lines: Iran would accept top-notch IAEA safeguards in return for being allowed to continue enriching uranium. In addition, Iran would volunteer some confidence-building measures to show that it has no intention of making nuclear weapons.

This, essentially, is the deal that Iran offered the UK, France and Germany in 2005. With hindsight, that offer should have been snapped up. It wasn’t, because our objective was to put a stop to all enrichment in Iran. That has remained the West’s aim ever since, despite countless Iranian reminders that they are unwilling to be treated as a second-class party to the NPT – with fewer rights than other signatories – and despite all the evidence that the Iranian character is more inclined to defiance than buckling under pressure.

The deal that could solve the West’s crisis with Iran | Jews for Justice for Palestinians

I think that would be a good idea. I am well fed up with all the beating of war drums and what that leads to - which in this case could have very serious consequences.

 

[waltky]

Arab oil states tryin' to offset Iran threat...

Gulf states struggle to beat oil threat to the Strait of Hormuz
Feb. 2,`12 (UPI) -- The Persian Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi is rushing to complete a $3.29 billion underwater oil pipeline from the United Arab Emirates to an export terminal on the Gulf of Oman to bypass the endangered choke point Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has threatened to close the narrow waterway at the southern end of the Persian Gulf and cut off one-fifth of the world's oil supply in an escalating confrontation with the West in the region over its nuclear program. An average of 14 supertankers carrying 15 million-17 million barrels per day transit the strait every day, with three-quarters of the oil heading for Asia to supply energy-hungry China, India and Japan. The Abu Dhabi project is part of a concerted effort by the Arab monarchies lining the western shore of the gulf to find ways to minimize the impact of a possible blockage of Hormuz through which their vital oil and natural gas exports pass. These efforts are unlikely to be able to find alternative export route for all the oil produced in the gulf. As things stand now, they will only be able to handle a fraction of the region's daily production.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has said it will use its 2 million bpd of spare production capacity to cover any shortfall. But without export outlets, that doesn't mean much. Dubai, a major financial hub in the region, says that the emirates, a confederation of seven mini-states, will be able to use ports on the Gulf of Oman if the strait is closed. "Iran is capable of fomenting tension in the region," Dubai's police chief, Gen. Dahi Khalfan, said Jan. 25. "We in the gulf have cards in our hands that allow us to marginalize the role of the strait and undermine its importance … we will open other gates and nullify the importance of the Strait of Hormuz." Fujairah, the southernmost of the emirates, has a port on the Gulf of Oman, south of the strait, which includes a major oil export terminal intended to bypass Hormuz in a crisis.

Khalfan didn't elaborate but the emirates are pinning their hopes on the 230-mile oil pipeline, most of it underwater, from the main oil field in Abu Dhabi, the federation's major oil producer and its economic powerhouse, to Fujairah. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels a day. That's most of the emirates' oil output and the equivalent of about 10 percent of the crude carried by supertankers out of the gulf every day. The much-delayed pipeline is expected to open in May but that may not be in time to alleviate any closure of Hormuz. And even if ADCOP was up and running when the Iranians struck, it wouldn't be able to transport anywhere near the daily outflow of 15 million-17 million bpd, and none of the 31 million tons of liquefied natural gas exported by tiny Qatar every year. Saudi Arabia has some infrastructure in place to pump oil exports from the megafields in its Eastern Province on the gulf coast, where its main terminals are located, to the Red Sea port of Yanbu on the kingdom's west coast.

But the only operational pipeline right now is the Petroline, which carries 5 million bpd, about 60 percent of Saudi Arabia's current output of 8 million bpd. Petroline is used to supply markets west of the Suez Canal, leaving little space available for any substantial portion of the crude that's normally shipped through Hormuz. Iraq would be hard hit since 80 percent of its exports are shipped through the gulf, mostly bound for Asia. It has twin pipelines running north from the Kirkuk fields to Turkey's Mediterranean terminal at Ceyhan. But these are old and open to insurgent attack -- as the Saudi pipelines would, in theory, be vulnerable to Iranian sabotage. It's possible a 1.65 million bpd pipeline across Saudi Arabia, used during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war to carry oil from Iraq, which was backed by the Persian Gulf monarchies, could be reopened. But if Hormuz is closed, it is unlikely Riyadh would be able to do much to help Baghdad, now under Iran's influence, while it needs Petroline for its own exports.

Read more: Gulf states struggle to beat oil threat to the Strait of Hormuz - UPI.com

See also:

Ashton: Oil embargo targets Iran's coffers
Feb. 2,`12 (UPI) -- European sanctions on Iranian oil are putting pressure on Tehran, though one lawmaker said she doubted Iran would change course because of them.

The European Council last month approved of an embargo on Iranian oil, a measure that will enter into force starting July 1. Member states, however, aren't allowed to enter into new fuel contracts with Tehran. Catherine Ashton, Europe's foreign policy chief, said that while European imports account for only 20 percent of all of Iran's oil exports, Tehran relies on oil exports for 70 percent of its revenue. "We are strongly increasing the pressure on Iranian government whilst avoiding as far as we possibly can negative effects on Iranian population," she said in a statement.

The managing director of the National Iranian Oil Co. told the Iranian Oil Ministry's information network that Tehran was ready to cut oil sales to Europe before July 1. The official said Iran would have "no problem" with finding non-European consumers for its crude oil.

Tarja Cronberg, a European lawmaker in charge of the delegation for relations with Iran, told the European Parliament's news service that European sanctions on Iran were rather broad. "This will have an impact on the whole Iranian economy but whether it will make the government change its policy, we don't know," she said. "Probably not."

Sanctions were imposed to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Many countries say they believe Iran is working to produce a nuclear bomb, an allegation Tehran denies.

Source

 

[waltky]

Drawbacks to Israel striking Iran...

Israeli strike on Iran would pose risk for US economy, Obama reelection bid
02/23/12 - A military strike by Israel against Iran’s nuclear facilities has emerged as one of the biggest threats to the U.S. economic recovery and could roil the November elections.

The Obama administration and economic experts have warned a pre-emptive attack by Israel could send the economy into a slump, which would change the trajectory of campaigns for the White House and Congress. Economic and energy experts say an attack could cause an oil shock, which sent the United States into recession in the late 1970s. In the early '90s, a similar shock occurred when the OPEC oil embargo and the Iraq invasion of Kuwait sent prices soaring. “If Iran is to retaliate against Israel or other U.S. targets, it’s really unpredictable. It’s safe to say there would be a big shock to oil prices,” said Adam Hersh, an economist at the Center for American Progress. “The oil price shock and domestic politics in the United States are my biggest concerns for disrupting the economic recovery we’ve been seeing,” he said.

Tensions with Iran will serve as a backdrop for the emerging battle over energy policy between the White House and congressional Republicans, who are seizing on high gas prices to build political momentum. It will also set the tone for a meeting early next month between President Obama and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Obama’s poll numbers have gone up with the economy, the chief concern of voters heading into the November election, and any news that would change that trajectory is unwanted at the White House. Administration officials have acknowledged the dangers to national security and the economy from an Israel-Iran battle.

In November, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned an attack would damage the nation’s economic recovery. Panetta recently warned The Washington Post’s David Ignatius there is a strong likelihood Israel would strike in April, May or June, before Iran can shield its facilities from aerial bombing. At the same time, there is only so much the United States can do in counseling Israel against taking action, and the Obama administration also wants to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons.

MORE

See also:

Yes, the IAEA is worried Iran is hiding something
February 24, 2012 - The latest IAEA report on Iran says that the country is not complying with inspections, is accelerating nuclear enrichment, and isn't being open about past possible weaponization work. Just like the last one.

The latest International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran's nuclear program is in much the same vein of past reports: There is plenty of smoke, but not fire, on possible nuclear-related weapons work by the Islamic Republic. Recent visits to Iran by IAEA members resulted in limited cooperation from Tehran, a refusal to provide access to the Parchin military base where inspectors believe work on a detonating component for a nuclear bomb has been conducted, and evidence of an expanding program of nuclear enrichment. Two sets of meetings with Iranian officials went nowhere, with Tehran effectively stonewalling the IAEA, according to the report.

On the IAEA's concerns about possible weapons-related work, Iran "dismissed the Agency’s concerns in relation to the aforementioned issues, largely on the grounds that Iran considered them to be based on unfounded allegations," the report says. The IAEA board "called on Iran to engage seriously and without preconditions in talks aimed at restoring international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme" and "identified the clarification of possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme as the top priority."

In short, the IAEA and everyone else following the question of Iran's nuclear program, which the country insists is for peaceful purposes only, are pretty much where they've been for over a year now. Iran is not fully cooperating with inspectors, creating the impression that it's hiding something. The IAEA can't report on places it can't visit, fueling more doubt. And Iran continues to dig in its heels on not providing more access and transparency. None of that looks good. But there is no evidence, only doubt – albeit doubt that Tehran itself continues to sow. Here's how the report puts it, summarizing a position laid out in greater detail last November:

A detailed analysis of the information available to the Agency (indicates) that Iran has carried out activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device. This information, which comes from a wide variety of independent sources, including from a number of Member States, from the Agency’s own efforts and from information provided by Iran itself, is assessed by the Agency to be, overall, credible. The information indicates that: prior to the end of 2003 the activities took place under a structured programme; that some continued after 2003; and that some may still be ongoing.

MORE

 

[waltky]

Risk/benefit analysis of Israel striking Iran...

Israel weighs risk, benefits of Iran strike
March 9, 2012 -- Israel's concern about Iran was on the agenda when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met President Obama this week.

A threatened Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear program carries enormous risks for the Jewish state, including international isolation, retaliation at home and abroad, and steep economic costs. And that's if it works. While Israel has the most advanced military in the Middle East -- including a suspected-but-undeclared nuclear arsenal of its own -- Israeli analysts say there's no guarantee that a unilateral strike will roll back an Iranian program it sees as a threat to its survival. Yet that's the choice observers say the Jewish state may soon face, and some argue the benefits would outweigh the costs military action would incur.

A successful raid would set back Iran's uranium enrichment effort by "several years," said Ephraim Kam, the deputy director at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies. And in a recent op-ed in The New York Times, Amos Yadlin, Israel's former head of military intelligence, argued that previous Israeli strikes against nuclear installations in Iraq and Syria successfully forced those countries to drop their nuclear programs. "This could be the outcome in Iran if military action is followed by tough sanctions, stricter international inspections and an embargo on the sale of nuclear components to Tehran," Yadlin wrote. "Iran, like Iraq and Syria before it, will have to recognize that the precedent for military action has been set, and can be repeated."

Israeli authorities argue that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, it would trigger a Middle Eastern arms race among Iran's rivals for regional influence. "Failure to prevent Iran from nearing the nuclear threshold will undoubtedly intensify the drive of other states in the region for nuclear weapons," said Shmuel Bar, director of studies at the Israeli Institute of Policy and Strategy. "The initial countries, which will attempt to acquire a military nuclear capability, would include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and in its path, other North African countries." A successful Israeli attack on Iran would eliminate the need for other countries in the region to develop such programs, proponents argue. And a severe blow to Iran could also weaken its proxies along Israel's borders, Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Both groups receive generous Iranian backing and have staged attacks against Israel and Israeli targets overseas.

Weakening Iran could free Israel to act more aggressively in combating those groups in the future, according to some Israeli analysts who fear the groups would become more brazen backed by a nuclear-armed Iran. "If the Iranian regime weakens as a result of a successful attack, this would undoubtedly have an impact on Hamas and Hezbollah," said Yossi Melman, an independent Israeli commentator on security and strategic affairs. He said Hezbollah "is likely to suffer a heavy price if it chooses to join the battle and attack Israel," while by knocking out Iran's nuclear fuel plants, "Israel will show its determination of not allowing Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon in hope that it understands the message for the future."

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US Deploys F-22s to Gulf...

US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf
April 28, 2012, US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US-Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, debkafile’s exclusive military and Washington sources report.

Sunday, April 22, the US also transferred a number of advanced stealth F-22 fighter bombers, believed to be from the 302nd Fighter Squadron 302, from the joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. According to our sources, the F-22 jets will join the F-15s of the Massachusetts Air National Guard’s 104th Fighter Wing which were transferred to the Al Udeid base a month ago. Their mission will be to destroy the Iranian air force and air defense batteries so as to clear the way for US and Israeli bombers to go into action against Iran’s nuclear sites and the strategic infrastructure of its army and Revolutionary Guards Corps.

This unprecedented US buildup of air might - supplementing the aircraft on the decks of the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Enterprise, to be joined by a third carrier as soon as the offensive gets underway – shows Tehran that the Obama administration is serious about using military means as extra pressure on Iran to give way in diplomatic negotiations – both with the six powers and with the US through clandestine channels. Both moves took place as the United States and five other world powers prepares for the second round of talks with Iran scheduled for next month to rein in its nuclear program.

The comment Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz made to AP on April 26 about “other countries” having readied their armed forces for a potential strike “to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons” referred to the deployment of the F-22 stealth jets. He did not name the other countries. His comment was received in Washington as Israel’s strongest message till now that it will not be alone in attacking Iran but will have partners, presumably the US - and possibly also Britain, France, German, Holland or Italy.

At the end of the US exercise simulating Day One of this attack, debkafile reports that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lt. Gen. Martin Dempsey submitted to the White House three conclusions:

1. Iran’s response to a military strike will be “measured,” both to limit the damage to the regime and to conserve military resources for a possible follow-up attack;

2. The Iranians will go back to work on building a nuclear weapon within a short time;

3. The destruction of core elements of its nuclear program is expected to change Iran’s attitude in negotiations, making it less cocky and more submissive to international demands.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security