Updated University Of Colorado Election Model: Romney 330 - Obama 208

[Rinata]

Yes__ It's predictable that I'd call out hacks such as yourself. Sorry, I'm not trying to impress you. Just call it how it is.

The wheels are off the Obama bus. If you think Obama is at 332 then you're living in the land of Oz.

Oh, goodie!!! Maybe the Wizard can make me 18 again. Oh, and bring Elvis back to life to be my honey!!

At least you know you're engaging in wishful thinking!

More than I can say for you!!!

 

[Conservative]

Huffington Post Election Dashboard has Obama with 263 and Romney with 206 electoral votes.

Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

they had Obama at over 300 a few days ago, and Romney at 180.\

If the polls favor Obama... 'splain it to me, Lucy.

 

[geauxtohell]

The one change is that the model now predicts New Mexico to go for Romney!

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,” Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.”

The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.

Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.

In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.

The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.

“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Wait. They can change their prediction?

No wonder they have been right for 30 years.

 

[Conservative]

Check this out... RCP just dropped Obama to 217 on the Electoral map, and still has Romney at 181. Their spread is now just 36.
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

 

[Conservative]

The one change is that the model now predicts New Mexico to go for Romney!

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,” Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.”

The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.

Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.

In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.

The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.

“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Wait. They can change their prediction?

No wonder they have been right for 30 years.

They don't change it AFTER the fact, dumb ass

 

[geauxtohell]

The one change is that the model now predicts New Mexico to go for Romney!



Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Wait. They can change their prediction?

No wonder they have been right for 30 years.

They don't change it AFTER the fact, dumb ass

Did I say that?

But if they can continue to revise their predictions up to the election, it has less gravitas then the poll that cam out a month ago that everyone was crowing about.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Check this out... RCP just dropped Obama to 217 on the Electoral map, and still has Romney at 181. Their spread is now just 36.
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

I don't care about Real Clear Nonsense. They use polls which have not been properly vetted.

 

[skookerasbil]

The one change is that the model now predicts New Mexico to go for Romney!

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico -- now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

While national polls continue to show the president in the lead, “the president seems to be reaching a ceiling at or below 50 percent in many of these states,” Bickers said. “Polls typically tighten up in October as people start paying attention and there are fewer undecided voters.”

The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.

Accordingly -- and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time -- each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.

In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had a statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention, the home state of the vice president or the partisanship of state governors.

The authors also provided caveats. Their model had an average error rate of five states and 28 Electoral College votes. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction due to factors not included in the model.

“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” they wrote.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Wait. They can change their prediction?

No wonder they have been right for 30 years.

What a dummy.

Bickers model is based upon each seperate state economy. ALmost invariably, when it sucks the big one, the incumbent gets clobbered...........like 100% of the time. Bickers model went from bad to worse for Obama when the September economic numbers came in..........asshole. Shit.....they have Romney now out in front in both Pa and Wi...........and I couldnt be laughing my balls off harder. The model has Romney winning ALL the battleground states months ago. Shit was already in the bag for Romney back in May when the model made its first projection.

Only the k00ks think things have gotten better in the past 4 years and now Romney is playing a card that was out of play before a week ago = he has a proven track record of working in a bipartisan fashion and the independents fucking LOVE it!!! This is why the k00ks go down hard in about 28 days..........and oh yes, the sting is going to be sweet to watch from my perspective. Because not only does Obama go down hard but what goes down with him is this anti-American, anti-tradtion, anti-capitalism approach embraced by the mental cases. It goes down with a splat as vivid as Michael Moore being tossed off the Freedom Tower to the street = 10X the laughs.


The celebration in here is going to be beyond epic.........I'll be laughing well past Thanksgiving while further infuriating the fucking k00ks on here. And they think they hate me now!!!

 

[skookerasbil]

I will throw out one caveat though...........Bickers might still be wrong...........Romney could be exposed with apicture of him banging some transvestitein an alley or a piece of space junk could always fall from the sky and strike Romney in the noggin. These things can happen............

 

[konradv]

I will throw out one caveat though...........Bickers might still be wrong...........Romney could be exposed with a picture of him banging some transvestite in an alley or a piece of space junk could always fall from the sky and strike Romney in the noggin. These things can happen............

Probably be the other way around!

 

[Conservative]

Check this out... RCP just dropped Obama to 217 on the Electoral map, and still has Romney at 181. Their spread is now just 36.
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

RCP has Romney up by 1.5 now. It was .7 this AM.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[AceRothstein]

I bet these guys feel like a couple of assholes right now. Their model still hasn't actually predicted any election correctly.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, the President has a least 313 electorial votes. That is better than either the RCP or Silver predicted.

 

[candycorn]

Sweet thread.

 

[JFK_USA]

This thread is hilarious.

 

[bodecea]

Im still laughing.............

Only the k00ks can see 100% success rate over 9 elections and say "meh".

Works for me though


You cant shine shit when 23 million people are out of work...........not even the Messiah can shine shit.


On election night, Im going to be in here laughing my balls off = a promise to all my conservative pals. Its not rocket science...........independents have left Obama in droves and thats how he won last time. Throw in the fact that less blacks are showing up this time and he's going to lose at least 10% of the Jewish vote. Plus the k00ks have no clue that Obama won a number of swing states by only a few percentage points against the lamest GOP candidate in the history of elections AND in the middle of an economic mess. Too.......only the k00ks see $4.00+ gas and whistle past the graveyard. Regular Americans will call BS.


When the economy is in the shitter and the incumbent is less than 50%, he takes a drubbing every single fucking time.


On election night.........expect to see this posted up about 500 times in here >>>>

Where are you? Don't hear you laughing.

 

[AceRothstein]

Yup.........I'll go with these guys. 100% over the last 9 elections and have called between 45-48 states in every single one. This one really makes the k00ks go mental, but it does reinforce what Carville said 20 years ago, "Its the economy stupid!!". And lets face it........despite the fuzzy math by the BLS recently, we got about 23 million people out of work out there. And we have millions of small businesses employing tens of millions of people. What do you those owners are telling their staff about the election? LOL......these are the people you never hear interviewed by the media, but dollar to a thousand stale donuts only about 19 of them will be voting for Hope and Change II.

Bottom line is.......you cant shine shit. Nobody has been able to do it in a general election. Carter tried to do it and lost. Bush I tried to do it and lost. Gore tried to do it and lost ( except to the k00ks ). McCain tried to do it and lost. Only the k00ks go and gas up their car at $40 for a half tank and proundly proclaim, "We're moving forward!!!!". But most people feel fucked these days!! Bickers model shows very consitently that when people feel fucked, they get rid of the asshole in charge of the store. They dont embrace all the k00k ideology touted by the forum dolts in here............they just dont want to feel fucked over every day in their lives.



Gatsby bro.........make sure to pop in here on election night. Im going to have you laughing your balls off my friend!! ( if I can pull myself away from watching the perpetually miserable over at MSNBC which Ive been stoked up to do for welll over a year )

0% success rate, dummy.

 

[AceRothstein]

Nate Silver is a hack with no credentials. And anybody quoting him is a hack.

Come again?

 

[Mad Scientist]

Nate Silver is a hack with no credentials. And anybody quoting him is a hack.

Come again?

Looks like he knows what he's talking about.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Looks more like Obama 290, Romney 203