Unskewed Polling Data

[Jroc]

If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 301 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 221 electoral votes. Michigan, worth 16 electoral votes, is too close to call.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin. The new Gallup Tracking poll released today shows the race tied at 47 percent for each candidate. Today's release of the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll shows a 55 percent to 45 percent lead for Mitt Romney. An Associated Press/GfK poll released yesterday, based on a balanced sample showed Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 46 percent. These are the most accurate and least skewed polls among those currently included in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls. The average of these four polls would put the race at 48.3 Romney and 46.3 Obama. That is within the margin of error or a tie. Leaving out the QstarNews poll, the average of the other three is a tie.

The presidential race is decided by the votes of the states that send the electors to the electoral college who will actually elect the next president under our Constitution. State polls released today and recently are the basis for the analysis below. As former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris and others have pointed out, the undecided vote in a presidential election will always heavily favor the challenging candidate by election day. This entirely new analysis will be by regions of the country and the key swing states within them. The map above shows the map based on this analysis and projection of electoral votes.

Mitt Romney winning 301 electoral votes as projected by polling data - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

 

[Jroc]

How Carter Beat Reagan

Washington Post admits polling was "in-kind contribution"; New York Times agenda polling.

Dick Morris is right.

Here's his column on "Why the Polls Understate the Romney Vote."

Here's something Dick Morris doesn't mention. And he's charitable.

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

That's right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.

In a series of nine stories in 1980 on "Crucial States" -- battleground states as they are known today -- the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.

Four years later, it was the Washington Post that played the polling game -- and when called out by Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins a famous Post executive called his paper's polling an "in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign." Mondale, of course, being then-President Reagan's 1984 opponent and Carter's vice president.

All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media -- used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 -- or Barack Obama in 2012.

First the Times in 1980 and how it played the polling game.

The states involved, and the datelines for the stories:

· California -- October 6, 1980
· Texas -- October 8, 1980
· Pennsylvania -- October 10, 1980
· Illinois -- October 13, 1980
· Ohio -- October 15, 1980
· New Jersey -- October 16, 1980
· Florida -- October 19, 1980
· New York -- October 21, 1980
· Michigan -- October 23, 1980
Of these nine only one was depicted as "likely" for Reagan: Reagan's own California. A second -- New Jersey -- was presented as a state that "appears to support" Reagan.

The American Spectator : How Carter Beat Reagan

 

[Jroc]

Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 -- Ronald Reagan 39

Pollsters and the news media keep trying to dispirit Mitt Romney’s supporters and to show that Barack Obama will be the inevitable victor. Even after the polling has been packed with Democrats, Obama cannot show a convincing lead that would take him to victory.

Past polls have also shown Democrats leading their Republican opponents up to the election. One of the most dramatic was a Gallup Poll result 2 weeks before the 1980 General Election that showed Jimmy Carter to be far ahead of Ronald Reagan.

In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 -- Ronald Reagan 39 | Lubbock Online | Lubbock Avalanche-Journal

 

[candycorn]

laugh harder - YouTube

 

[bobcollum]

Of course what you consider unskewed gives you the desired results.

 

[Jroc]

Has there ever been a President more pushed by the media than Obama?...I think not. I don't believe any of this crap they're pushng... Plus the polling is skewed

 

[Lakhota]

Dream on...

 

[bobcollum]

Has there ever been a President more pushed by the media than Obama?...I think not. I don't believe any of this crap they're pushng... Plus the polling is skewed

But your polling is skewed, so who are you trying to fool? I mean besides yourself.

 

[courseofhistory]

Too bad reality escapes the "unskewed"!

 

[buckeye45_73]

Has there ever been a President more pushed by the media than Obama?...I think not. I don't believe any of this crap they're pushng... Plus the polling is skewed

But your polling is skewed, so who are you trying to fool? I mean besides yourself.

Well Chuck Todd said NBC's polling was but Carbineer didnt believe him, I need to find that thread, it was classic and hilarious

You're right though, the media is completely objective.....oh wait they're far right wingers!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Charles_Main]

If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 301 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 221 electoral votes. Michigan, worth 16 electoral votes, is too close to call.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin. The new Gallup Tracking poll released today shows the race tied at 47 percent for each candidate. Today's release of the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll shows a 55 percent to 45 percent lead for Mitt Romney. An Associated Press/GfK poll released yesterday, based on a balanced sample showed Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 46 percent. These are the most accurate and least skewed polls among those currently included in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls. The average of these four polls would put the race at 48.3 Romney and 46.3 Obama. That is within the margin of error or a tie. Leaving out the QstarNews poll, the average of the other three is a tie.

The presidential race is decided by the votes of the states that send the electors to the electoral college who will actually elect the next president under our Constitution. State polls released today and recently are the basis for the analysis below. As former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris and others have pointed out, the undecided vote in a presidential election will always heavily favor the challenging candidate by election day. This entirely new analysis will be by regions of the country and the key swing states within them. The map above shows the map based on this analysis and projection of electoral votes.

Mitt Romney winning 301 electoral votes as projected by polling data - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

Don't Know if I would say Romney is that far ahead, or even ahead at all. However there is no denying that many of the Polling Out fits are either Deliberately, or just through Laziness, Skewing the current polls heavily in Favor of Obama. They are all basically still using 2008 Turn out and Party Affiliation Numbers to structure their Samples.

Problem is Turn out is not going to Favor Democrats nearly as much as if did then, and some newer Polls show in the Party affiliation Area Dems have actually lost their Traditional Advantage and it is basically even.

That Translates into a much Closer Turn out, which means all these polls over sampling Democrats by 7 to 13% are going to turn out to be way off.

My guess would be currently the actually numbers would maybe be Obama plus 1 over all, and Nothing at all like the Leads some of the polls have Obama having in key Swing States.

Watch for the Polls to Tighten way up in the last 2 weeks, when the pollsters or more worried about their Accuracy, and will start using more relativist sample Break downs, and More Likely Voters.

 

[Avatar4321]

It's amazing how often the left skews polls to favor their candidates and then are surprised when Republicans win in high numbers.

 

[Charles_Main]

Has there ever been a President more pushed by the media than Obama?...I think not. I don't believe any of this crap they're pushng... Plus the polling is skewed

But your polling is skewed, so who are you trying to fool? I mean besides yourself.

And who are the Liberal Press trying to Fool, Over sampling Democrats by Plus 10 to 13 based on 2008 Numbers, and Completely ignoring the Changes in Party Affiliation, and the Turn out in 2010?

I am sorry, but if your Candidate is only showing a 5 Point Lead, when you over sample his Party by 10% in a poll, when turn out is likely to be much more like Dems plus 3, you are fooling yourself.

Well you are, the Media doing it are fully aware of what they are doing. Attempting to Effect the Election by Creating a feel of Inevitability of an Obama win.

This Time around the Bias is even more easy to see than ever.

 

[Charles_Main]

It's amazing how often the left skews polls to favor their candidates and then are surprised when Republicans win in high numbers.

The Idiots Followers on the Left may be surprised, but the Power on the left knows what they are doing, they don't believe the polls. They just think they will suppress GOP turn out, and if Obama loses they can claim they were cheated and Point to their BS skewed Polls as evidence something is fishy.

 

[The Infidel]

It's amazing how often the left skews polls to favor their candidates and then are surprised when Republicans win in high numbers.

2010 comes to mind for me

 

[buckeye45_73]

yep democrats were saying Nancy was still gonna be speaker...and that republicans werent gonna pick up much in the senate......OOOOOOOPS

 

[Clementine]

Polls started showing different results after Holder went after Gallup. Sheer coincidence, I'm sure.

Many tricks by Obama's campaign have backfired. I hope this will, too. They might think Repubs will stay home thinking it's no use, but some liberals might stay home thinking that the election is in the bag without their votes.

 

[bobcollum]

Has there ever been a President more pushed by the media than Obama?...I think not. I don't believe any of this crap they're pushng... Plus the polling is skewed

But your polling is skewed, so who are you trying to fool? I mean besides yourself.

And who are the Liberal Press trying to Fool, Over sampling Democrats by Plus 10 to 13 based on 2008 Numbers, and Completely ignoring the Changes in Party Affiliation, and the Turn out in 2010?

I am sorry, but if your Candidate is only showing a 5 Point Lead, when you over sample his Party by 10% in a poll, when turn out is likely to be much more like Dems plus 3, you are fooling yourself.

Well you are, the Media doing it are fully aware of what they are doing. Attempting to Effect the Election by Creating a feel of Inevitability of an Obama win.

This Time around the Bias is even more easy to see than ever.

yawn

Not my candidate. I'll leave you guys here to argue with yourselves about how your skewed poll is better than the other guys skewed poll.

 

[TruthSeeker56]

If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 301 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 221 electoral votes. Michigan, worth 16 electoral votes, is too close to call.

The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin. The new Gallup Tracking poll released today shows the race tied at 47 percent for each candidate. Today's release of the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll shows a 55 percent to 45 percent lead for Mitt Romney. An Associated Press/GfK poll released yesterday, based on a balanced sample showed Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 46 percent. These are the most accurate and least skewed polls among those currently included in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls. The average of these four polls would put the race at 48.3 Romney and 46.3 Obama. That is within the margin of error or a tie. Leaving out the QstarNews poll, the average of the other three is a tie.

The presidential race is decided by the votes of the states that send the electors to the electoral college who will actually elect the next president under our Constitution. State polls released today and recently are the basis for the analysis below. As former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris and others have pointed out, the undecided vote in a presidential election will always heavily favor the challenging candidate by election day. This entirely new analysis will be by regions of the country and the key swing states within them. The map above shows the map based on this analysis and projection of electoral votes.

Mitt Romney winning 301 electoral votes as projected by polling data - Arlington Conservative | Examiner.com

UnSkewed Polls -- erasing the bias to show an accurate picture of politics

Amazingly enough, about two weeks ago, I went to the "270 To Win" interactive Electoral College website, and my own final tally was Romney- 301 and Obama- 237.

Here is the link: 2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

 

[Lakhota]

Sounds like Romney has it locked up.