Unemployment numbers are lies.

[bigrebnc1775]

The labor force participation is naturally going to decline over the next couple decades simply due to demographics. There's no point in attempting to fix it to a certain figure.

And why is it going to decline? Please explain.

Because there's a perfectly predictable increase in the number of people over 65 as baby boomers retire and live longer. The population of those 65+ will be a larger share of the population in the next couple decades.

There is nothing set in stone that says a baby boomer will retire at the retirement age.

 

[Cammmpbell]

Just So Folks Don't Get Wrapped Up In A Bunch Of Republican Wishing. Don't forget who wrecked the economy or especially how bad it was wrecked. Never before in the history of a captitalist society has the government had to turn over nearly a trillion dollars to banks:

I know - Democrats took power in 2007 causing millions to lose their jobs, the economy went to shit & the deficit soared.

ROTFLMAO!

The mortgage industry began to lose the whole game beginning with the California properties which had reached astronomical values about 2005. Beginning after the 9-11 fiasco the pricks on Wall St. came up with a new formula which included home values increasing by 6% a year forever. Even the dumbest prick alive would know that stuff ain't gonna fly.

Here's an excerpt from the encyclopedia:

In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed due to higher-than-expected home foreclosure rates, with more than 25 subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale. Harper's Magazine warned of the danger of rising interest rates for recent homebuyers holding such mortgages, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole: "The problem is that prices are falling even as the buyers' total mortgage remains the same or even increases. Rising debt-service payments will further divert income from new consumer spending. Taken together, these factors will further shrink the “real” economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse." Factors that could contribute to rising rates are the U.S. national debt, inflationary pressure caused by such factors as increased fuel and housing costs, and changes in foreign investments in the U.S. economy. The Fed raised rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25%, between 2004 and 2006. BusinessWeek magazine called the option ARM "the riskiest and most complicated home loan product ever created" and warned that over one million borrowers took out $466 billion in option ARMs in 2004 through the second quarter of 2006, citing concerns that these financial products could hurt individual borrowers the most and "worsen the housing bust." To address the problems arising from "liar loans", the Internal Revenue Service updated an income verification tool used by lenders to make confirmation of borrower's claimed income to be faster and easier. In April 2007, financial problems similar to the subprime mortgages began to appear with Alt-A loans made to homeowners who were thought to be less risky; the delinquency rate for Alt-A mortgages rose in 2007. The manager of the world's largest bond fund PIMCO, warned in June 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis was not an isolated event and will eventually take a toll on the economy and whose ultimate impact will be on the impaired prices of homes.

The Democratic majority didn't even begin until January 2007. I have a suggestion. Quit Watching Faux News.

 

[Mr.Nick]

Just So Folks Don't Get Wrapped Up In A Bunch Of Republican Wishing. Don't forget who wrecked the economy or especially how bad it was wrecked. Never before in the history of a captitalist society has the government had to turn over nearly a trillion dollars to banks:

I know - Democrats took power in 2007 causing millions to lose their jobs, the economy went to shit & the deficit soared.

ROTFLMAO!

The mortgage industry lost the whole game beginning with the California properties which had reached astronomical values. Beginning after the 9-11 fiasco the pricks on Wall St. came up with a new formula which included home values increasing by 6% a year forever. Even the dumbest prick alive would know that stuff ain't gonna fly.

Here's an excerpt from the encyclopedia:

In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed due to higher-than-expected home foreclosure rates, with more than 25 subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale. Harper's Magazine warned of the danger of rising interest rates for recent homebuyers holding such mortgages, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole: "The problem is that prices are falling even as the buyers' total mortgage remains the same or even increases. ... Rising debt-service payments will further divert income from new consumer spending. Taken together, these factors will further shrink the “real” economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse." Factors that could contribute to rising rates are the U.S. national debt, inflationary pressure caused by such factors as increased fuel and housing costs, and changes in foreign investments in the U.S. economy. The Fed raised rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25%, between 2004 and 2006. BusinessWeek magazine called the option ARM "the riskiest and most complicated home loan product ever created" and warned that over one million borrowers took out $466 billion in option ARMs in 2004 through the second quarter of 2006, citing concerns that these financial products could hurt individual borrowers the most and "worsen the housing bust." To address the problems arising from "liar loans", the Internal Revenue Service updated an income verification tool used by lenders to make confirmation of borrower's claimed income to be faster and easier. In April 2007, financial problems similar to the subprime mortgages began to appear with Alt-A loans made to homeowners who were thought to be less risky; the delinquency rate for Alt-A mortgages rose in 2007. The manager of the world's largest bond fund PIMCO, warned in June 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis was not an isolated event and will eventually take a toll on the economy and whose ultimate impact will be on the impaired prices of homes.

The Democratic majority didn't even begin until January 2007. I have a suggestion. Quit Watching Faux News.

You're a fucking idiot...

Funny how you OWS collectivist assholes always have some individual conspiracy theory...

Here is a theory for you - people abused credit and couldn't afford their homes anymore after they destroyed their "free credit" via forced lending via the Community Reinvestment Act????

It's called supply and demand dummy...

It's funny how assholes such as yourself imply we live under a manipulated or dictated market (dictated by private sector capitalists) - yet you turn around and call for an end to a "supply and demand" based economic model...

Total contradictions and pure ignorance on your part and on your ilks part..

 

[ShaklesOfBigGov]

I believe we should go to a format of measuring unemployment using the average labor participation rate of 66%.

No, what you believe is that we should concoct some sort of new measure that will make the headline number look worse,

because Obama is president.

The economy is a lot worse if you don't want to "sugar coat" it the way the main stream media wants to portray it. Do a little intellectual investigation of the facts on the internet if you dare want to see the overall picture.

US Underemployment Rate is at 19.00%, compared to 18.90% yesterday and 19.90% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 18.78%
http://ycart.com/indicators/underemployment_rate

The misery index was initiated by economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960's. It is simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation both create economic and social costs for a country. A combination of rising inflation and more people out of work implies a deterioration in economic performance and a rise in the misery index.

US Misery Index is at a current level of 11.23%

The United States Misery Index
US Misery Index

 

[auditor0007]

I know - Democrats took power in 2007 causing millions to lose their jobs, the economy went to shit & the deficit soared.

ROTFLMAO!

The mortgage industry lost the whole game beginning with the California properties which had reached astronomical values. Beginning after the 9-11 fiasco the pricks on Wall St. came up with a new formula which included home values increasing by 6% a year forever. Even the dumbest prick alive would know that stuff ain't gonna fly.

Here's an excerpt from the encyclopedia:

In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed due to higher-than-expected home foreclosure rates, with more than 25 subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale. Harper's Magazine warned of the danger of rising interest rates for recent homebuyers holding such mortgages, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole: "The problem is that prices are falling even as the buyers' total mortgage remains the same or even increases. ... Rising debt-service payments will further divert income from new consumer spending. Taken together, these factors will further shrink the “real” economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse." Factors that could contribute to rising rates are the U.S. national debt, inflationary pressure caused by such factors as increased fuel and housing costs, and changes in foreign investments in the U.S. economy. The Fed raised rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25%, between 2004 and 2006. BusinessWeek magazine called the option ARM "the riskiest and most complicated home loan product ever created" and warned that over one million borrowers took out $466 billion in option ARMs in 2004 through the second quarter of 2006, citing concerns that these financial products could hurt individual borrowers the most and "worsen the housing bust." To address the problems arising from "liar loans", the Internal Revenue Service updated an income verification tool used by lenders to make confirmation of borrower's claimed income to be faster and easier. In April 2007, financial problems similar to the subprime mortgages began to appear with Alt-A loans made to homeowners who were thought to be less risky; the delinquency rate for Alt-A mortgages rose in 2007. The manager of the world's largest bond fund PIMCO, warned in June 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis was not an isolated event and will eventually take a toll on the economy and whose ultimate impact will be on the impaired prices of homes.

The Democratic majority didn't even begin until January 2007. I have a suggestion. Quit Watching Faux News.

You're a fucking idiot...

Funny how you OWS collectivist assholes always have some individual conspiracy theory...

Here is a theory for you - people abused credit and couldn't afford their homes anymore after they destroyed their "free credit" via forced lending via the Community Reinvestment Act????

It's called supply and demand dummy...

It's funny how assholes such as yourself imply we live under a manipulated or dictated market (dictated by private sector capitalists) - yet you turn around and call for an end to a "supply and demand" based economic model...

Total contradictions and pure ignorance on your part and on your ilks part..

You are seriously going to blame the housing bubble on the CRA? The two years prior to the burst, approximately 1/3 of homes were purchased by speculators. Don't try blaming low income earners trying to buy a home for this mess. Many did lose their homes, only after the bust when they lost their jobs.

At the peak of the boom in 2006, more than a third of home purchase loans were made to borrowers who already owned at least one house, according to the study. In California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, which had the most pronounced bubbles, investors accounted for 45 percent of the mortgages.

Boom-Era Property Speculators to Get Foreclosure Aid: Mortgages - Bloomberg

 

[pinqy]

And why is it going to decline? Please explain.

Because there's a perfectly predictable increase in the number of people over 65 as baby boomers retire and live longer. The population of those 65+ will be a larger share of the population in the next couple decades.

There is nothing set in stone that says a baby boomer will retire at the retirement age.

You're right, but the fact remains that as the baby boomers retire the labor force that will cause a negative effect on the labor force

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Because there's a perfectly predictable increase in the number of people over 65 as baby boomers retire and live longer. The population of those 65+ will be a larger share of the population in the next couple decades.

There is nothing set in stone that says a baby boomer will retire at the retirement age.

You're right, but the fact remains that as the baby boomers retire the labor force that will cause a negative effect on the labor force

Who said anyone has retired?

 

[francoHFW]

Jeebus Pub dupes are dumb...

 

[KissMy]

Because there's a perfectly predictable increase in the number of people over 65 as baby boomers retire and live longer. The population of those 65+ will be a larger share of the population in the next couple decades.

There is nothing set in stone that says a baby boomer will retire at the retirement age.

You're right, but the fact remains that as the baby boomers retire the labor force that will cause a negative effect on the labor force

Retiring baby boomer's will cause lower unemployment as people are hired to fill jobs vacated by the retired boomer's.

 

[pinqy]

There is nothing set in stone that says a baby boomer will retire at the retirement age.

You're right, but the fact remains that as the baby boomers retire the labor force that will cause a negative effect on the labor force

Who said anyone has retired?

People do retire and that's generally correlated with age. No one's putting an exact number, but there is a trend.

 

[NYcarbineer]

They are accurate. They are just not seasonally adjusting their numbers like the BLS is. Guess what? The BLS not seasonally adjusted UE number is 9.3% which is actually higher than Gallup's 9.1%. So the BLS seasonal adjusted headline grabbing 8.3% UE number may still very well rise even if the actual employment situation is improving.

You don't understand the point of seasonal adjustment? Seriously?

I see no point in any UE number. The unadjusted Employment to Population Ratio (EMRATIO) is the only number that matters. People know if they & their friends & family are unemployed. Government cronies spinning a fake headline UE number changes nothing for real people. As you can see from the the EMRATIO chart below - Real People Are Hurting.

Ah, so now that you see the numbers aren't being skewed to help Obama,
you don't see any point in them.

 

[pinqy]

They are accurate. They are just not seasonally adjusting their numbers like the BLS is. Guess what? The BLS not seasonally adjusted UE number is 9.3% which is actually higher than Gallup's 9.1%. So the BLS seasonal adjusted headline grabbing 8.3% UE number may still very well rise even if the actual employment situation is improving.

You don't understand the point of seasonal adjustment? Seriously?

I see no point in any UE number. The unadjusted Employment to Population Ratio (EMRATIO) is the only number that matters. People know if they & their friends & family are unemployed. Government cronies spinning a fake headline UE number changes nothing for real people. As you can see from the the EMRATIO chart below - Real People Are Hurting.

So... In 1953 when the emp-pop ratio was 57.1%, things were much worse than in 2010 when it was 58.5%? You think that's a better comparison than UE rates of 2.9% in 1953 and 9.6% in 2010?

 

[Douger]

I was talking with some five year olds the other day and they said finding work was a bitch !
What's it like being uh murkin ?

 

[mudwhistle]

I believe we should go to a format of measuring unemployment using the average labor participation rate of 66%. If you look through history the labor force has almost always been just above or just below 66%, until recently. This is why it should be the standard and not the moving target. I mean how much sense does 8.3% being different than 8.3% last month, a year ago, or a year from now all being different. 8.3% should mean 8.3% period. It makes no sense what so ever the way it is now. Currently everyone is boasting an 8.3% unemployment rate. However, that is at the current labor participation rate of 63.9%. If the rate were the average 66%, the unemployment rate would actually be 11.2%. Heck if the labor force was the same as when Obama took office the unemployment rate would be 10.5%. The fact is they use the ability to move the labor force around to make things seem better than they really are. But in the end we are just being lied to.


January 2009
Population 234,739
Labor Force 153,716 Rate: 65.5
Employed: 142,099 Rate: 60.5
Unemployed: 11,616 Rate: 7.6


February 2012
Population 242,435
Labor Force 154,871 Rate: 63.9
Employed: 142,065 Rate: 58.6
Unemployed: 12,806 Rate: 8.3


If labor force was same as 01/09 65.5

Population 242,435
Labor Force 158,794 Rate: 65.5
Employed: 142,065 Rate: 58.6
Unemployed: 16,729 Rate: 10.5

If the labor force was it’s average rate of 66 the unemployment would be

Population 242,435
Labor Force 160,007 Rate: 66
Employed: 142,065 Rate: 58.6
Unemployed: 17,942 Rate: 11.2

The formula used to equate our unemployment rate is flawed at best...

The formula doesn't account for those who have exhausted their unemployment insurance, it doesn't count those who don't qualify for unemployment insurance...

The equation is total labor force divided by "active job seekers" (those currently receiving unemployment benefits).

So you can bet the more people being booted off unemployment means the more our unemployment rate will drop.

The real unemployment numbers have done nothing but climb, while the "official number" has fallen.

The misery index is a far better formula to calculate the impact of an economy on the individual, however it's more complicated.

The formula also doesn't show how many folks are working more than one job.

 

[usmcstinger]

When a person exhausts his or her unemployment insurance, where do they get money from? Welfare is the next obvious source of income. The only other source of income that comes mind is working "off the books". If there are other sources of income, please let me know.

 

[thereisnospoon]

troll thread

You consider this a troll thread because the numbers don't lie. And of course the numbers don't fit your pro Obama template.
Ya know what? Tough darts, pal.

 

[thereisnospoon]

Just So Folks Don't Get Wrapped Up In A Bunch Of Republican Wishing. Don't forget who wrecked the economy or especially how bad it was wrecked. Never before in the history of a captitalist society has the government had to turn over nearly a trillion dollars to banks:

I know - Democrats took power in 2007 causing millions to lose their jobs, the economy went to shit & the deficit soared.

ROTFLMAO!

The mortgage industry began to lose the whole game beginning with the California properties which had reached astronomical values about 2005. Beginning after the 9-11 fiasco the pricks on Wall St. came up with a new formula which included home values increasing by 6% a year forever. Even the dumbest prick alive would know that stuff ain't gonna fly.

Here's an excerpt from the encyclopedia:

In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed due to higher-than-expected home foreclosure rates, with more than 25 subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale. Harper's Magazine warned of the danger of rising interest rates for recent homebuyers holding such mortgages, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole: "The problem is that prices are falling even as the buyers' total mortgage remains the same or even increases. Rising debt-service payments will further divert income from new consumer spending. Taken together, these factors will further shrink the “real” economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse." Factors that could contribute to rising rates are the U.S. national debt, inflationary pressure caused by such factors as increased fuel and housing costs, and changes in foreign investments in the U.S. economy. The Fed raised rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25%, between 2004 and 2006. BusinessWeek magazine called the option ARM "the riskiest and most complicated home loan product ever created" and warned that over one million borrowers took out $466 billion in option ARMs in 2004 through the second quarter of 2006, citing concerns that these financial products could hurt individual borrowers the most and "worsen the housing bust." To address the problems arising from "liar loans", the Internal Revenue Service updated an income verification tool used by lenders to make confirmation of borrower's claimed income to be faster and easier. In April 2007, financial problems similar to the subprime mortgages began to appear with Alt-A loans made to homeowners who were thought to be less risky; the delinquency rate for Alt-A mortgages rose in 2007. The manager of the world's largest bond fund PIMCO, warned in June 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis was not an isolated event and will eventually take a toll on the economy and whose ultimate impact will be on the impaired prices of homes.

The Democratic majority didn't even begin until January 2007. I have a suggestion. Quit Watching Faux News.

Non sequitur....
There have been several real estate market threads. Go post there.
Stop the nonsense. The federal government in it's infinite wisdom manipulated the real estate market. And THAT is why it collapsed.
And the you can stow the "Wall Street did it" crap.
Obama is sucking up huge dollars in campaign contributions from financial institutions and brokerage houses.
Now..Back to those unemployment numbers.

 

[thereisnospoon]

ROTFLMAO!

The mortgage industry lost the whole game beginning with the California properties which had reached astronomical values. Beginning after the 9-11 fiasco the pricks on Wall St. came up with a new formula which included home values increasing by 6% a year forever. Even the dumbest prick alive would know that stuff ain't gonna fly.

Here's an excerpt from the encyclopedia:

In March 2007, the United States' subprime mortgage industry collapsed due to higher-than-expected home foreclosure rates, with more than 25 subprime lenders declaring bankruptcy, announcing significant losses, or putting themselves up for sale. Harper's Magazine warned of the danger of rising interest rates for recent homebuyers holding such mortgages, as well as the U.S. economy as a whole: "The problem is that prices are falling even as the buyers' total mortgage remains the same or even increases. ... Rising debt-service payments will further divert income from new consumer spending. Taken together, these factors will further shrink the “real” economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse." Factors that could contribute to rising rates are the U.S. national debt, inflationary pressure caused by such factors as increased fuel and housing costs, and changes in foreign investments in the U.S. economy. The Fed raised rates 17 times, increasing them from 1% to 5.25%, between 2004 and 2006. BusinessWeek magazine called the option ARM "the riskiest and most complicated home loan product ever created" and warned that over one million borrowers took out $466 billion in option ARMs in 2004 through the second quarter of 2006, citing concerns that these financial products could hurt individual borrowers the most and "worsen the housing bust." To address the problems arising from "liar loans", the Internal Revenue Service updated an income verification tool used by lenders to make confirmation of borrower's claimed income to be faster and easier. In April 2007, financial problems similar to the subprime mortgages began to appear with Alt-A loans made to homeowners who were thought to be less risky; the delinquency rate for Alt-A mortgages rose in 2007. The manager of the world's largest bond fund PIMCO, warned in June 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis was not an isolated event and will eventually take a toll on the economy and whose ultimate impact will be on the impaired prices of homes.

The Democratic majority didn't even begin until January 2007. I have a suggestion. Quit Watching Faux News.

You're a fucking idiot...

Funny how you OWS collectivist assholes always have some individual conspiracy theory...

Here is a theory for you - people abused credit and couldn't afford their homes anymore after they destroyed their "free credit" via forced lending via the Community Reinvestment Act????

It's called supply and demand dummy...

It's funny how assholes such as yourself imply we live under a manipulated or dictated market (dictated by private sector capitalists) - yet you turn around and call for an end to a "supply and demand" based economic model...

Total contradictions and pure ignorance on your part and on your ilks part..

You are seriously going to blame the housing bubble on the CRA? The two years prior to the burst, approximately 1/3 of homes were purchased by speculators. Don't try blaming low income earners trying to buy a home for this mess. Many did lose their homes, only after the bust when they lost their jobs.

At the peak of the boom in 2006, more than a third of home purchase loans were made to borrowers who already owned at least one house, according to the study. In California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, which had the most pronounced bubbles, investors accounted for 45 percent of the mortgages.

Boom-Era Property Speculators to Get Foreclosure Aid: Mortgages - Bloomberg

"Speculators"...The latest lib buzzword used to deflect blame away from where it belongs.
Squarely on the shoulders of the meddling libs that set up and protected market manipulation.
Jobs lost is an effect. Manipulation of the market by the federal government was the cause.

 

[pinqy]

I believe we should go to a format of measuring unemployment using the average labor participation rate of 66%. If you look through history the labor force has almost always been just above or just below 66%, until recently. This is why it should be the standard and not the moving target. I mean how much sense does 8.3% being different than 8.3% last month, a year ago, or a year from now all being different. 8.3% should mean 8.3% period. It makes no sense what so ever the way it is now. Currently everyone is boasting an 8.3% unemployment rate. However, that is at the current labor participation rate of 63.9%. If the rate were the average 66%, the unemployment rate would actually be 11.2%. Heck if the labor force was the same as when Obama took office the unemployment rate would be 10.5%. The fact is they use the ability to move the labor force around to make things seem better than they really are. But in the end we are just being lied to.


January 2009
Population 234,739
Labor Force 153,716 Rate: 65.5
Employed: 142,099 Rate: 60.5
Unemployed: 11,616 Rate: 7.6


February 2012
Population 242,435
Labor Force 154,871 Rate: 63.9
Employed: 142,065 Rate: 58.6
Unemployed: 12,806 Rate: 8.3


If labor force was same as 01/09 65.5

Population 242,435
Labor Force 158,794 Rate: 65.5
Employed: 142,065 Rate: 58.6
Unemployed: 16,729 Rate: 10.5

If the labor force was it’s average rate of 66 the unemployment would be

Population 242,435
Labor Force 160,007 Rate: 66
Employed: 142,065 Rate: 58.6
Unemployed: 17,942 Rate: 11.2

The formula used to equate our unemployment rate is flawed at best...

The formula doesn't account for those who have exhausted their unemployment insurance, it doesn't count those who don't qualify for unemployment insurance...

The equation is total labor force divided by "active job seekers" (those currently receiving unemployment benefits).

So you can bet the more people being booted off unemployment means the more our unemployment rate will drop.

The real unemployment numbers have done nothing but climb, while the "official number" has fallen.

The misery index is a far better formula to calculate the impact of an economy on the individual, however it's more complicated.

The formula also doesn't show how many folks are working more than one job.

Those are shown separately in Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
For the labor force atars, they're counting people, not jobs, so foolproof are counted once no matter how many jobs.

 

[edthecynic]

And why is it going to decline? Please explain.

Because there's a perfectly predictable increase in the number of people over 65 as baby boomers retire and live longer. The population of those 65+ will be a larger share of the population in the next couple decades.

There is nothing set in stone that says a baby boomer will retire at the retirement age.

And there is nothing set in stone that says they won't.
In REALITY, some Boomers will retire as soon as they turn 62, some will retire later, and some will work till they die, but make no mistake one way or another Boomers are leaving the workforce.