Unemployment drops to 8.9%

[Trajan]

actually no, its better last month.

thats your stock in trade of course, simple questions because you want simple answers. this month 50k net jobs were created

But that's the first net positive month for job creation since the recession began. 198,000 jobs were created in one month. More than are required to meet the employment needs of the growing population.

It's the first real month of recovery since the credit crisis began in August of 2008.

uhm, yes I know, if you had read my prior posts you would have seen I acknowledged that and that wasn't really my question or point.

Stop trying to assassinate the data the BLS delivers and just read it with an open mind. This month's results are cause for celebration at long last. We are finally seeing real recovery. Dig it!

I do, thats why I have questions, i laid out my angst on this point as well, in my prior posts.

 

[SgtMeowenstein]

Yes, it is very good. When the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, I told everyone I cared about to take their money out of the stock market because it's going to crash. Now that we have some real conservatives in the House, I've been slowly putting money back in and cautiously telling others to do the same. We may actually see a real recovery if the conservatives don't cave-in and sell America short again.

The Republicans have had control of ONE part of congress for 2 months now, and you're attributing last month's unemployment figures to them? LOL.

That's funny.

The Recession ended in the summer of 09 yet here it is 2011 and we're just now seeing an improvement?

Well, ether the improvement that is being reported is bull shit in an attempt to make Obama look good or it has something to do with changes that have taken place since 09. And the biggest change is the balance of power has swung back to the right. Which means businesses don't feel as threatened as they used to. They have a bit more optimism.

Truth is things aren't improving. They've just changed the way we report the numbers.

One thing you cons can't get through your heads - or more accurately, one thing you're ignoring, is that there has been steady private sector job growth for 12 months straight. That's a year. As in Feb 2010. One year before the GOP took control of ONE house of Congress. So, please, explain to me in that fucked up logic of yours how the GOP had anything to do with 12 straight months of job growth when they've controlled only ONE house of Congress for the last two months

 

[Toro]

It's not that the Recession was so different - it's the RECOVERY that's the problem.

We've never had a government act in such a hostile, anti-growth manner to the private sector. Obama's policies have thwarted recover of the private sector while supporting massive spending on the government itself.

We should be generating 300K plus private sector jobs per month right now. But Obama-Pelosi-Reid killed that. It's shameful - and millions of people are suffering severe long term unemployment because of it.

This recession is extremely different. It is most similar to the causes of the Great Depression and the 2001 recession. It is a "balance sheet" recession, caused by the rise and fall of asset prices and the destruction of credit more so than the inventory cycle, which characterized recessions from WWII to the end of the century.

In the 2002-07 recovery, nearly half of all jobs created were somehow related to housing and mortgage finance. The only reason why most of those jobs came into being was because of an artificial bubble that should never existed. Without the housing bubble, structural unemployment would have been much higher than it was during the last decade. Now that that bubble has popped, those jobs aren't coming back, and it will take a long time for the excess capacity created in the housing bubble to be absorbed and to spur new capital expansion.

This balance sheet recession is tracking remarkably similar to other recessions around the globe that have been caused by asset bubbles and the implosion of credit.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

February jobs report: Unemployment falls as hiring picks up - Mar. 4, 2011

The private sector is driving a recovery. That is very good!

Yes, it is very good. When the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, I told everyone I cared about to take their money out of the stock market because it's going to crash. Now that we have some real conservatives in the House, I've been slowly putting money back in and cautiously telling others to do the same. We may actually see a real recovery if the conservatives don't cave-in and sell America short again.

So the GOP holds majority in the house and have done nothing to create jobs and you will give them credit for the jobs improvement...yeah....

We are just crawling out of the hole that GW left for us.

The government doesn't create anything, but what it does do is stay out of the way of the private sector and jobs are created. The only time the private sector stop creating jobs is when the government steps in with regulation, over sights, and new taxs.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Any way you slice it, the economy is improving

Now, if we could only get the idiots in congress to work together without worrying about who gets the credit....we could really make some progress

8.9 is good? I would say 4.9 is better which is where we were in 2006. It seems like since the democrats were in control the unemoloyment numbers went up. Now that they do not have as much control unemployment numbers go down.

 

[editec]

Seems to me that every depression is caused initially by ASSET BUBBLES.

And why do ASSETS (read financial instruments and stocks) turn into bubbles?

Anybody want to venture a guess what sets up the conditions for that to happen?

Here's a hint...it is not because working people are spending too much.

Here's another hint...it isn't because the weathy are too heavily taxed, either.

Now connect the dots.

 

[skookerasbil]

11/4/10

.............

 

[Vast LWC]

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, you instant gratification nitwit.

The GOP hasn't proposed its budget yet - but look at the hyperventilation by the Dems to cut less than 1.6% after the the increased over 25% since 2007.

Government spending is crushing growth out of the private sector. The jobs situation will not improve until real GDP (not this fake inflation driven Obama version) growth actually occurs.

"Government spending is crushing growth out of the private sector"?

That's an interesting statement.

Since taxes have not been raised to pay for government spending in ages, please explain how this works.

 

[MaggieMae]

okay, so it appears, that you don't out much stock in the IBD article? Thats fine...I mean I hate to say it, but i have time, I am working. We'll see next month and the month there after, if we add 50k net puts opwer month I guess that will work but god, how long will it take to gain real ground? Is this what a trillion dollars bought us? a net 50-65k a month?

and see this is where I need further explanation in that how does the employment- unemployment statistics account for the people coming back, won't that drive the unemployment number back up as people came back to the market and get added to the roles of 'recognized unemployed' instead of being vaporized to the 'not looking for work' metric?

and no I am not trying to be a party pooper, I am just tired of the mixed messages and the fact that we have to have an involved discussion each and every time these numbers come out because the accounting ,methodology cannot be explained in simple terms everyone can recognize. Not many have the patience for this.

Simple question...

Is the employment picture better than it was one year ago?
Is it better than it was two years ago?

actually no, its better last month.

thats your stock in trade of course, simple questions because you want simple answers. this month 50k net jobs were created, good, I am glad.

However, with labor participation at a 30 low, I'd say that things really have not got better overall no.

I have said so before, when we see sustained growth at rates we have had in prior post recession ears, I'll be more than happy to acknowledge that, the facts are the facts. yet, here we are 20 months and over a trillion dollars later and? I posted a link and blurbs speaking to this, but it may not be simple enough for you....to that i say, sorry, stop watching the msm and go read amnd research for yourself.

While you posted links regarding 20 months and over a trillion later and, were there any alternative solutions given that guaranteed a better outcome? That seems to be the trillion-dollar question no one has the answer to.

 

[MaggieMae]

The is is all just so much schlock….. if anyone is seriously wondering why no one trusts the gov., any gov. anymore this sure gilds the Lilly.
Oh, and by no means is this a dem. only game either, but this really took off after the reporting methodology morhped under Clinton.

lets recap, the last 4 months-



Nov 2010- 39,000 jobs created, rise in rate by .4% to 9.8%.
Dec 2010- 103,000 jobs created, drop in rate by .4% to 9.4%
Jan 2011- 36,000 jobs created, drop in rate by .4 % to 9.0%
Feb . 2011- 192,000 jobs created, drop in rate by .1% to 8.9%.

See? Does the above make sense to anyone even on an intuitive level? And course obama has taken any opportunity drops, raise etc. to make it appears as iof all is well, everything is moving ahead according to plan….just a few jump starts that’s all…


and so, all that glitters, is not gold. see article below, I read this 2 days ago.....I'll take their word over a hand picked favorite of the AP who have been wrong so many times its ridiculous.....

Layoffs At Pre-Recession Level; Job Openings Down 30%
By SCOTT STODDARD, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Posted 03/02/2011 06:50 PM ET

Twenty months after the worst recession in decades, job creation remains anemic, weighing on economic growth and making it even harder for the long-term jobless to find work.

Don't blame layoffs. They spiked in 2009 but have returned to pre-slump levels, according to Labor Department data. But job openings remain 30% below their level when the downturn hit in December 2007. Gross hiring is down by 843,000 jobs.
While the economy has grown modestly in recent quarters, hiring remains depressed due to uncertainty about future demand, concerns about government policies and efficiency gains that have let companies do more with less.

"It's the drop in job openings, not the increase in job losses that is responsible for so much of the increase in unemployment," said James Sherk, a labor policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation.


Labor is expected to report Friday that the U.S. added a net 183,000 jobs in February, the most since last May. The jobless rate is seen ticking up 0.1 point to 9.1% as more people entered the labor force. Many of those new or returning job-seekers will likely find only disappointment.

December job openings fell by 139,000 to 3.06 million, the third straight decline, according to Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. January's JOLTS survey is due March 11.


There were 4.7 job-seekers for each opening in December, off a peak of 6.3 in July 2009 but still far above the 1.15 ratio typical before the recession, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
"We are still very near the bottom of a very huge crater," said Heidi Shierholz, an EPI labor economist.

The U.S. has expanded for six quarters, but growth has been modest by historical standards. Strong head winds remain, from a still-moribund housing market to $100 oil and looming fiscal tightening at all levels of government.
Uncertainty about ObamaCare costs have also made firms cautious about hiring, analysts said.

More at-
Stocks, Investing, Business and Financial News from Investor's Business Daily NewsAndAnalysis/Article/ 564756/201103021850/Job- Creation-Remains-Anemic.htm

As I said in another thread, no one, not a single person from Obama on down has ever promised there would be an explosion of jobs available either in the near or even the far future. They ALL have said, unequivocably, that unemployment will remain sluggish.

The debate that everything should be hunky-dory by now should be OVER, because it is what it is, and no amount of backtracking and blame is going to change the circumstances that keep unemployment high. This WAS the worst recession since the Great Depression, and it's high time people acknowledged that and learned to live with the consequences.

no he 'forecast' or 'predicted' unemployment would remain below 8%. be that as it may , see, I would forgive him, things don't always conform to our wishes and the experts best guess , wait I mean estimates, but applying the krugman yardstick ala reagan, etc. 20 months after the end of the recession, we are on our ass, it is a fact.

And frankly the sluggish gig is fine as far as it goes, so how long do we just mope along?

And as far as worse since...yada yada, yes, I am sure thats easy to believe, I would say its different , but in the end, we pay and elect for success...no? hes had the advantage of spending over a trillion dollars and a supra majority for 8 months and a budgetary majority for 18 months to get us going.....well?

is the job to much for him? Why does he get a pass? Bush didn't? Reagan in those dark days of his willful recession didn't?

He doesn't get a pass. The simple FACT is that unemployment is what it is, and it's showing definite signs of improving. And no one is claiming that happy days are here again. Is that giving Obama a pass? No. It's just the reality of the situation which includes hundreds of different factors.

 

[MaggieMae]

Simple question...

Is the employment picture better than it was one year ago?
Is it better than it was two years ago?

actually no, its better last month.

thats your stock in trade of course, simple questions because you want simple answers. this month 50k net jobs were created, good, I am glad.

However, with labor participation at a 30 low, I'd say that things really have not got better overall no.

I have said so before, when we see sustained growth at rates we have had in prior post recession ears, I'll be more than happy to acknowledge that, the facts are the facts. yet, here we are 20 months and over a trillion dollars later and? I posted a link and blurbs speaking to this, but it may not be simple enough for you....to that i say, sorry, stop watching the msm and go read amnd research for yourself.

Are we making progress or not?

Is the job picture better today than it was a year ago? I didn't say is it ideal, I asked is it better

Job gains occurred in manufacturing, construction, professional and
business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing.
Employment Situation Summary

Those are excellent indicators. If most of the new jobs were in the service sector, or boosted because of temporary work in the public sector, it probably wouldn't mean squat.

 

[MaggieMae]

No
No
I really do wish it was yes and yes. Until we get back 5 or 6 million jobs AND sustain an additional 3-400k a month for a year, it's not time to break out the pom poms.

How many jobs a month were we making a year ago?
How many were we losing a month two years ago?

By what criteria do you consider it worse?

Thanks, Trajan.

I don't consider it worse, rw, just stagnating. Truth is, just because we skew the numbers by dropping 1 to 2 million people out of the picture doesn't make everything rosy. We're in a bad place right now. I'd love to see some true growth in the economy, hell, I'm about to launch another company. I want money coming in.

Btw, congrats on your son and his job.

I'd still like to know where those 1-2 million dropouts reside now. I wonder if there's any information, like did they return to school? Working under the table? Living with parents again? Sleeping in someone's car? Shelters? I also never quite understood how that number is arrived at, because if they've "dropped out," how were the contacted to know that in the first place?

 

[MaggieMae]

Yes, it is very good. When the Democrats took control of Congress in 2007, I told everyone I cared about to take their money out of the stock market because it's going to crash. Now that we have some real conservatives in the House, I've been slowly putting money back in and cautiously telling others to do the same. We may actually see a real recovery if the conservatives don't cave-in and sell America short again.

So the GOP holds majority in the house and have done nothing to create jobs and you will give them credit for the jobs improvement...yeah....

We are just crawling out of the hole that GW left for us.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, you instant gratification nitwit.

The GOP hasn't proposed its budget yet - but look at the hyperventilation by the Dems to cut less than 1.6% after the the increased over 25% since 2007.

Government spending is crushing growth out of the private sector. The jobs situation will not improve until real GDP (not this fake inflation driven Obama version) growth actually occurs.

That's bull. Small businesses have been given all kinds of tax breaks; big businesses have been hoarding profits. I don't think they're being "crushed" to the extent you want everyone to believe. Some businesses have been CRUSHED because of the economic tsunami, period. And who caused that? Big private investment banks.

 

[The T]

Why the Market is Down on What Looks Like Positive Jobless News

• AP: Unemployment Dips to 8.9 pct., 192K Jobs Added
• Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February
• Network Double Standard: Rising Gas Prices a Bush Problem in 2008, But Obama Gets a Pass
• CBS: Fuel Prices Sore-ing

 

[skeptic]

How many jobs a month were we making a year ago?
How many were we losing a month two years ago?

By what criteria do you consider it worse?

Thanks, Trajan.

I don't consider it worse, rw, just stagnating. Truth is, just because we skew the numbers by dropping 1 to 2 million people out of the picture doesn't make everything rosy. We're in a bad place right now. I'd love to see some true growth in the economy, hell, I'm about to launch another company. I want money coming in.

Btw, congrats on your son and his job.

I'd still like to know where those 1-2 million dropouts reside now. I wonder if there's any information, like did they return to school? Working under the table? Living with parents again? Sleeping in someone's car? Shelters? I also never quite understood how that number is arrived at, because if they've "dropped out," how were the contacted to know that in the first place?

dropped from the workforce means that they were contacted and either are not looking for work or fall into a category which neither means they are employed or unemployed. Everybody is accounted for here

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

 

[MaggieMae]

okay, so it appears, that you don't out much stock in the IBD article? Thats fine...I mean I hate to say it, but i have time, I am working. We'll see next month and the month there after, if we add 50k net puts opwer month I guess that will work but god, how long will it take to gain real ground? Is this what a trillion dollars bought us? a net 50-65k a month?

and see this is where I need further explanation in that how does the employment- unemployment statistics account for the people coming back, won't that drive the unemployment number back up as people came back to the market and get added to the roles of 'recognized unemployed' instead of being vaporized to the 'not looking for work' metric?

and no I am not trying to be a party pooper, I am just tired of the mixed messages and the fact that we have to have an involved discussion each and every time these numbers come out because the accounting ,methodology cannot be explained in simple terms everyone can recognize. Not many have the patience for this.

Generally, there are mixed messages at inflection points. The economy usually doesn't start producing 700k jobs overnight. It builds over time. One should look at all the data holistically, and the trend is towards improvement. New claims fell to 370k on Thursday, for example.

Frankly, though, I don't expect the rate of employment growth to grow fast compared to other recoveries. This is a very different type of recession and there is still too much capacity in the economy that will only be eliminated with time. The last recovery was relatively weak and was highly dependent on a housing bubble that should never existed. This recovery will be weak too.

It's not that the Recession was so different - it's the RECOVERY that's the problem.

We've never had a government act in such a hostile, anti-growth manner to the private sector. Obama's policies have thwarted recover of the private sector while supporting massive spending on the government itself.

We should be generating 300K plus private sector jobs per month right now. But Obama-Pelosi-Reid killed that. It's shameful - and millions of people are suffering severe long term unemployment because of it.

More bull. The 2001 recession was a mild one, but the RECOVERY still took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

 

[MaggieMae]

It's not that the Recession was so different - it's the RECOVERY that's the problem.

We've never had a government act in such a hostile, anti-growth manner to the private sector. Obama's policies have thwarted recover of the private sector while supporting massive spending on the government itself.

We should be generating 300K plus private sector jobs per month right now. But Obama-Pelosi-Reid killed that. It's shameful - and millions of people are suffering severe long term unemployment because of it.

This recession is extremely different. It is most similar to the causes of the Great Depression and the 2001 recession. It is a "balance sheet" recession, caused by the rise and fall of asset prices and the destruction of credit more so than the inventory cycle, which characterized recessions from WWII to the end of the century.

In the 2002-07 recovery, nearly half of all jobs created were somehow related to housing and mortgage finance. The only reason why most of those jobs came into being was because of an artificial bubble that should never existed. Without the housing bubble, structural unemployment would have been much higher than it was during the last decade. Now that that bubble has popped, those jobs aren't coming back, and it will take a long time for the excess capacity created in the housing bubble to be absorbed and to spur new capital expansion.

This balance sheet recession is tracking remarkably similar to other recessions around the globe that have been caused by asset bubbles and the implosion of credit.

FINALLY! Someone else who grasps the situation.

 

[MaggieMae]

Thanks, Trajan.

I don't consider it worse, rw, just stagnating. Truth is, just because we skew the numbers by dropping 1 to 2 million people out of the picture doesn't make everything rosy. We're in a bad place right now. I'd love to see some true growth in the economy, hell, I'm about to launch another company. I want money coming in.

Btw, congrats on your son and his job.

I'd still like to know where those 1-2 million dropouts reside now. I wonder if there's any information, like did they return to school? Working under the table? Living with parents again? Sleeping in someone's car? Shelters? I also never quite understood how that number is arrived at, because if they've "dropped out," how were the contacted to know that in the first place?

dropped from the workforce means that they were contacted and either are not looking for work or fall into a category which neither means they are employed or unemployed. Everybody is accounted for here

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

But that still doesn't say what they're doing to live, in lieu of... Thanks for the link, though.

 

[Trajan]

does it matter really? they are living with the consequences....

 

[rightwinger]

Why the Market is Down on What Looks Like Positive Jobless News

• AP: Unemployment Dips to 8.9 pct., 192K Jobs Added
• Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Hitting 10.3% in February
• Network Double Standard: Rising Gas Prices a Bush Problem in 2008, But Obama Gets a Pass
• CBS: Fuel Prices Sore-ing

Libya