Unemployment Claims fall

Discussion in 'Economy' started by JimH52, Oct 7, 2010.

  1. JimH52
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    JimH52 Gold Member

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  2. topspin
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    topspin BANNED

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    sweet and oil is up!!
     
  3. Annie
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    Annie Diamond Member

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    Glad you're all happy that initial claims are down, that is a good thing. Yet, the unemployment rate is expected to be higher. Since at least June, each adjustment in the rate of both unemployed and other measures have been coming out 'unexpectedly' worse. There are literally tens of thousands of people who've exhausted their benefits, even their 'extended benefits' while taking what work they can get, to offset their unemployed status. Real unemployment is much higher than the 'expected' 9.7.

    Great for those speculating on the suffering of others, with oil, gold, etc. The climate must gain stability, not a Congress that leaves without even discussing a budget, so that people will once again be hired. Truth is, feels alot more like pre-Revolutionary France or Russia, than the US Revolution.
     
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  4. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    A drop in claims is not an indication that jobs are being created. To regain the lost jobs and adjust for increases in the population, we need to add 300K jobs PER MONTH for years. We're not even keeping up with population growth.

    Companies in the U.S. unexpectedly cut jobs in September, data from a private report based on payrolls showed today.

    Employment decreased by 39,000, the biggest drop since January, after a revised 10,000 rise in August, according to figures from ADP Employer Services. The median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 20,000 gain. Forecasts ranged from a decline of 44,000 to a 75,000 increase.

    A loss of jobs raises the risk that consumer spending, the largest part of the economy, will retrench and halt the recovery. A Labor Department report in two days will show companies added 75,000 workers last month, economists project.

    “It’s more evidence of a lousy labor market,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “Here we are, 18 months into a recovery and we’re not doing much on the job front. Until we digest the excesses built up over decades, you’re not going to see sustained gains in jobs or the overall economy.”



    Companies in U.S. Unexpectedly Cut Jobs, ADP Says - BusinessWeek
     
  5. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    True, but the reason is important. The rate is expected to be higher due to people entering/re-entering the labor force...people unemployed not because they lost their jobs, but because they are just starting to look for work and haven't been sucessful yet. Counter-intuitively, an increase in the UE rate for this reason is a positive sign for recovery.

    Well, if they take work, then they're not unemployed, so looking at the UE rate, you do have to go past that and look at the change in level of part-time workers and reason for working part time...in increase in employment with an increase in people working part time for economic reasons (temporarily working part time due to cut hours or failure to find full time work) is not a really positive indicator. Reciept or eligibility of benefits has nothing to do with the UE rate, though...you are counted as unemployed regardless of ever having recieved benefits or even never having had a job at all. The only thing that matters is looking for work.

    People often talk about "real unemployment" but never state what makes it "real" except for a preference for a different definition. There's no absolute "real" definition of unemployed.
     
  6. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    Tell that to the people who don't have jobs and would like to be employed.
     
  7. Annie
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    Annie Diamond Member

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    If someone takes a 20 hour job at $12 per hour, that is not going to overtake their unemployment benefits generated from their $58k job they lost. So, they end up with partial benefits, while working. That's I guess 'part-time' unemployed.

    Indeed everyone I've known has done just that, in order not to 'stay on' unemployment longer than necessary. Besides, after sending out hundreds of applications, there's only so much left to do.

    One of the worst systems now set up is that most hiring seems now to start online, until one is able to get an interview. Indeed, there are some now that seem to hire directly from online, which makes one wonder how long these folks will last to begin with?
     
  8. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    The Lefties often decry "Globalization" which is driving down wages in certain sectors of the economy. If such wage deflation is bad, then why is it a temporary job at a far lower wage that someone takes for survival is not an indicator of under & unemployment?
     
  9. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Tell what to them? That they're not unemployed if they're not looking for a job? Sure, why not? Technical definitions are for a purpose, not to make people feel better
     
  10. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    heres the scoop, I am sooo tired of hearing this BS...did they use their favorite term- "unexpectedly "...?

    the economy MUST have approx. 125-150K new jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth and new entries into the job market, we need a GDP of at least 1.5 to 2.0% as a sign of life, a heart beat.


    wait till the Q3 GDP number comes out .......Goldman thinks it will be negative. Even a 2% would be a bollocks. If so bus. will go even deeper into discounting goods, , not hire as much for seasonal help and consumer confidence will take another hit. it feeds off itself.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2010

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