Uh-oh! Is CT Senate now in play??

[swizzlee]

Rasmussen's 1st poll in CT shows McMahon leading by +3

Isn't this supposed to be a super safe Dem seat??

Hmmmm......

 

[Leweman]

Can't believe it but yep, Romney has essentially won Connecticut because of this as well.

 

[Avatar4321]

Can't believe it but yep, Romney has essentially won Connecticut because of this as well.

How do you figure? Just curious

 

[swizzlee]

Naw - I don't go along with that.....

Voters often don't vote for the same party in choosing a Prez and a Sen

 

[martybegan]

Naw - I don't go along with that.....

Voters often don't vote for the same party in choosing a Prez and a Sen

That and this is the first and so far only poll showing that.

That being said it means another place the Dems have to play a bit of defense in, thus pulling money from actual swing states.

 

[Leweman]

Can't believe it but yep, Romney has essentially won Connecticut because of this as well.

How do you figure? Just curious

Just using Missouri Senate race logic. Missouri is in play for Obama now, ya know?

 

[jillian]

Rasmussen's 1st poll in CT shows McMahon leading by +3

Isn't this supposed to be a super safe Dem seat??

Hmmmm......

you know prescott bush was senator from connecticut, right?

and given mcmahon's money, i'm not surprised.

but i wouldn't go by rasmussen, anyway. i'm more interested in RCP averages.

 

[jillian]

and where's your link?

 

[JWBooth]

Meh, if the poll is still +3 the Saturday before the election, there might be something here to notice. The conventions haven't even taken place yet.

 

[jillian]

RCP Average 5/29 - 8/21 -- 47.3 44.7 Murphy +2.6
Rasmussen Reports 8/21 - 8/21 500 LV 46 49 McMahon +3
PPP (D) 7/26 - 7/29 771 LV 50 42 Murphy +8
Quinnipiac 5/29 - 6/3 1408 RV 46 43 Murphy +3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Murphy

i love rightwingnuts. y'all are so funny...

RCP average has murphy up by +2.6

i wonder why you didn't post quinnipiac or ppp.

oh right.

 

[g5000]

McMahon blew $50 million of her own money trying to win Chris Dodd's senate seat in 2010, and got her ass trounced in the election.

I doubt her chances of winning Lieberman's seat are any better.

.

 

[Claudette]

Its just a poll. They don't mean much.

 

[FlexibleEnergy]

Hey,bammy only has connecticut by 8% as opposed to 22% last go around....

 

[FlexibleEnergy]

Reality could possibly equal landslide.

 

[martybegan]

RCP Average 5/29 - 8/21 -- 47.3 44.7 Murphy +2.6
Rasmussen Reports 8/21 - 8/21 500 LV 46 49 McMahon +3
PPP (D) 7/26 - 7/29 771 LV 50 42 Murphy +8
Quinnipiac 5/29 - 6/3 1408 RV 46 43 Murphy +3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Murphy

i love rightwingnuts. y'all are so funny...

RCP average has murphy up by +2.6

i wonder why you didn't post quinnipiac or ppp.

oh right.

In this case PPP is the outlier.

I think its more to the fact that an "R" senate candidate is even this close in conneticut. I dont think she has more than a 20% chance of winning, but again, it will require $$ to be spent on the democratic side that could have been used elsewhere.

Unless of course they all shift to D+5 or so, then the impact becomes far less.

 

[g5000]

McMahon comes across as someone who will be nothing more than a mindless drone who would vote in the Senate the way she is instructed to vote.

.

 

[JWBooth]

McMahon comes across as someone who will be nothing more than a mindless drone who would vote in the Senate the way she is instructed to vote.

.

Which would make her no different from the rest by an (approximate) factor of 98.

 

[jillian]

RCP Average 5/29 - 8/21 -- 47.3 44.7 Murphy +2.6
Rasmussen Reports 8/21 - 8/21 500 LV 46 49 McMahon +3
PPP (D) 7/26 - 7/29 771 LV 50 42 Murphy +8
Quinnipiac 5/29 - 6/3 1408 RV 46 43 Murphy +3

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Murphy

i love rightwingnuts. y'all are so funny...

RCP average has murphy up by +2.6

i wonder why you didn't post quinnipiac or ppp.

oh right.

In this case PPP is the outlier.

I think its more to the fact that an "R" senate candidate is even this close in conneticut. I dont think she has more than a 20% chance of winning, but again, it will require $$ to be spent on the democratic side that could have been used elsewhere.

Unless of course they all shift to D+5 or so, then the impact becomes far less.

no more of the outlier from the averate than rasmussen is.

connecticut has a lot of conservative areas. a lot.

before i decided that an RCP average of +3 was a problem, i'd want to know liberman and dodd's numbers as well as their predecessors. and i'd want to know what historical voting patterns are. connecticut is safely obama's imo. no matter how much you want to spin a race where there's huge money and name recognition for someone who looked like she could win last time and lost.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

RCP is useless considering they use all the polls and the majority of which use heavy over sampling

 

[g5000]

McMahon comes across as someone who will be nothing more than a mindless drone who would vote in the Senate the way she is instructed to vote.

.

Which would make her no different from the rest by an (approximate) factor of 98.

Which is why it is long past time for some real change in government. We need leaders, not triangulators, hypocrites, and liars.

.