Trivia Question..

[Philobeado]

Before Bill Clinton, who was the last Democrat President elected to a second term?

 

[kaz]

before bill clinton, who was the last democrat president elected to a second term?

lbj

 

[Philobeado]

LBJ didn't run for a second term. He finished JFK's term and then ran for only one term.

 

[kaz]

LBJ didn't run for a second term. He finished JFK's term and then ran for only one term.

OK, if you're going to change the rules for the question then the answer is FDR

 

[Philobeado]

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

 

[The Rabbi]

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

It's not a fair question.
FDR was elected. Truman essentially was re-elected to a second term. So was LBJ.
So really the percentage of Dem presidents getting re-elected is pretty high. Only Carter didnt.
And on the GOP side, only GHW Bush didn't get re-elected. ANd Ford, but that doesn't count.

the point is the incumbent almost always gets re-elected because people are willing to give him a chance. Things have to be really bad before they'll switch horses.
Of course $5/gal gasoline and 9%+ unemployment might just do it in 2012.

 

[FBastiat]

I think at the rate things are going, Clinton may still hold that mantle after 2012.

 

[JamesInFlorida]

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

It's not a fair question.
FDR was elected. Truman essentially was re-elected to a second term. So was LBJ.
So really the percentage of Dem presidents getting re-elected is pretty high. Only Carter didnt.
And on the GOP side, only GHW Bush didn't get re-elected. ANd Ford, but that doesn't count.

the point is the incumbent almost always gets re-elected because people are willing to give him a chance. Things have to be really bad before they'll switch horses.
Of course $5/gal gasoline and 9%+ unemployment might just do it in 2012.

I think you're spot on. I would say that in general people don't like change, and resist change (in most things-not just politics/presidents), so we tend to re-elect presidents because of that.

As far as Obama goes: two years is still a long time. With the way things are going now, I think it will be closer than his first election-but I think he will win as of right now.

 

[JamesInFlorida]

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

Here's another trivia question: how many times in the past 120 years has an incumbent Democrat President lost his bid for re-election, other than Carter?

What does that say about their job performance?

You have to look at things in context.

 

[Philobeado]

Especially since Truman and L B J chose not to run again.

PBO's giving the peanut farmer a run for his money...

 

[JamesInFlorida]

Especially since Truman and L B J chose not to run again.

PBO's giving the peanut farmer a run for his money...

Strawman. The question was simple: how many Democrats have lost a re-election since after Cleveland in 1888, and the answer is just 1 (Carter).

My point is this: you asked a trivia question-while although being true, it can easily be refuted, as far as being able to say that this is a sign of the Democrat's job performance in the oval office.

Because, if your logic is true-then my trivia question (which is also a fact), would also be able to be attributed to the Democrat's job performance.

I understand that you love to take shots at the Democrats as much as you can (and I'm not Democrat supporter btw), but by taking trivial shots that really hold no bearing on the current state of the political realm of the nation-you're not making a good argument.

Focus on the real issues.

 

[NYcarbineer]

How many Democratic incumbents have lost a re-election bid in the last 80 years?

One

How many Republican incumbents have lost a re-election bid in the last 80 years?

Three

How many Democratic presidents have resigned in disgrace in the last 80 years?

None

How many Republican presidents have resigned in disgrace in the last 80 years?

One.

 

[rightwinger]

FDR was elected four times
Truman finished FDRs term and one of his own
JFK was shot
LBJ finished a term and won one of his own
Carter was a one termer
Clinton was elected twice
Avg term 6.7 years


Ike was elected twice
Nixon elected twice and resigned
Ford filled in less than one term
Reagan elected twice
Bush one term
Baby Bush elected twice
6 yr avg term

Not much difference

 

[8537]

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

Well, before Clinton we had Carter...

LBJ, who chose not to run.

and JFK, who couldn't run.

and Truman, who was prevented from running for a "second term".

 

[zzzz]

In reality LBJ lost re-election. Once Kennedy entered the race the polls had LBJ far behind and a sure bet to lose. LBJ did win the NH primary and since he started to run but later getting out in effect he lost re-election!

 

[Charles_Main]

the point is the incumbent almost always gets re-elected because people are willing to give him a chance. .

13 Presidents have served 2 full terms or more.

1. George Washington

2. Thomas Jefferson

3. James Madison

4. James Monroe

5. Andrew Jackson

6. Ulysses S. Grant

7. Grover Cleveland (2 full, non-consecutive terms)

8. Woodrow Wilson

9. Franklin D. Roosevelt (served 3 fulls terms and died early in his 4th term).

10. Dwight Eisenhower

11. Ronald Reagan

12. Bill Clinton

13. George W. Bush (assuming that he serves until Jan. 20, 2009).


There were three presidents who were elected to two terms, but they didn't complete the second term:

1. Abraham Lincoln (assassinated at the beginning of his second term).

2. William McKinley (assassinated at the beginning of his second term).

3. Richard Nixon (resigned during his second term).


There were four presidents who were elected to a second term, but they hadn't been elected to the first (they didn't serve a full first term).

1. Theodore Roosevelt (completed McKinley's second term and was elected to one term of his own).

2. Calvin Coolidge (completed Warren Harding's term and was elected to one term of his own).

3. Harry Truman (completed FDR's fourth term and was elected to one term of his own).

4. Lyndon B. Johnson (completed Kennedy's term and was elected to one term of his own).


even counting LBJ,Teddy, Calvin and Truman it is only 20 presidents who have been elected to a second term. 16 if you do not count the ones who did not serve a full first term. So at best 20 out of 45 Presidents have been elected to 2 terms. Kinda blows a hole in your "the incumbent almost always gets re-elected" therory

In fact as you see only 16 presidents have ever been elected by the people to be president more than once ever. I would say usually they do not get a second chance.

The one thing on your side is that since Ike at least. The trend has been more in favor on 2 terms.

 

[JamesInFlorida]

the point is the incumbent almost always gets re-elected because people are willing to give him a chance. .

13 Presidents have served 2 full terms or more.

1. George Washington

2. Thomas Jefferson

3. James Madison

4. James Monroe

5. Andrew Jackson

6. Ulysses S. Grant

7. Grover Cleveland (2 full, non-consecutive terms)

8. Woodrow Wilson

9. Franklin D. Roosevelt (served 3 fulls terms and died early in his 4th term).

10. Dwight Eisenhower

11. Ronald Reagan

12. Bill Clinton

13. George W. Bush (assuming that he serves until Jan. 20, 2009).


There were three presidents who were elected to two terms, but they didn't complete the second term:

1. Abraham Lincoln (assassinated at the beginning of his second term).

2. William McKinley (assassinated at the beginning of his second term).

3. Richard Nixon (resigned during his second term).


There were four presidents who were elected to a second term, but they hadn't been elected to the first (they didn't serve a full first term).

1. Theodore Roosevelt (completed McKinley's second term and was elected to one term of his own).

2. Calvin Coolidge (completed Warren Harding's term and was elected to one term of his own).

3. Harry Truman (completed FDR's fourth term and was elected to one term of his own).

4. Lyndon B. Johnson (completed Kennedy's term and was elected to one term of his own).


even counting LBJ,Teddy, Calvin and Truman it is only 20 presidents who have been elected to a second term. 16 if you do not count the ones who did not serve a full first term. So at best 20 out of 45 Presidents have been elected to 2 terms. Kinda blows a hole in your "the incumbent almost always gets re-elected" therory

In fact as you see only 16 presidents have ever been elected by the people to be president more than once ever. I would say usually they do not get a second chance.

The one thing on your side is that since Ike at least. The trend has been more in favor on 2 terms.

The hole in your logic is: you're assuming every president has sought re-election. This is not so. Kennedy, Garfield, W. Harrison, Taylor, Harding, and Obama shouldn't count towards your final number of 45 for obvious reasons-they've never had the opportunity to seek re-election due to death (or in Obama's case the election hasn't occurred yet. Right off the bat your number of 45 should really be 39.

This isn't including both Hayes and Buchanan who decided not to seek re-election. This brings your number down to 37.

There is no hole in the theory that incumbents have a much better chance at winning in an election:

Election results where the current incumbent is running:

Winning: 20 (this is only counting FDR as 1, in reality his other 2 wins would boost the odds of an incumbent winning slightly)

(Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Jackson, Polk, Lincoln, Grant, McKinley, T. Roosevelt, Wilson, Coolidge, F. Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, L. Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, W. Bush


Losing: 10

(Adams, Quincey Adams, Van Buren, Cleveland, B. Harrison, Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, Bush).

So in other words: incumbent presidents who've run have a 66.6% re-election rate.

If you include FDR's other two wins for a total of re-election results-and not simply presidents rel-election success, then the rate goes up to 68.8%.

 

[auditor0007]

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

It's not a fair question.
FDR was elected. Truman essentially was re-elected to a second term. So was LBJ.
So really the percentage of Dem presidents getting re-elected is pretty high. Only Carter didnt.
And on the GOP side, only GHW Bush didn't get re-elected. ANd Ford, but that doesn't count.

the point is the incumbent almost always gets re-elected because people are willing to give him a chance. Things have to be really bad before they'll switch horses.
Of course $5/gal gasoline and 9%+ unemployment might just do it in 2012.

Not with the pretenders the Republican Party is throwing out there.

 

[Philobeado]

Tea party!!!

Yep.. it's been a loong time.

Just wondering what that says for their history of job performance.

It's not a fair question.
FDR was elected. Truman essentially was re-elected to a second term. So was LBJ.
So really the percentage of Dem presidents getting re-elected is pretty high. Only Carter didnt.
And on the GOP side, only GHW Bush didn't get re-elected. ANd Ford, but that doesn't count.

the point is the incumbent almost always gets re-elected because people are willing to give him a chance. Things have to be really bad before they'll switch horses.
Of course $5/gal gasoline and 9%+ unemployment might just do it in 2012.

Not with the pretenders the Republican Party is throwing out there.

 

[Cecilie1200]

LBJ didn't run for a second term. He finished JFK's term and then ran for only one term.

It was still his second term, and he was elected to it.

If you don't wish to include him, then the question should be, "Who was the last Democrat before Bill Clinton to be elected to two terms as President?"