Trade War Winning

[Manonthestreet]

Strength of a dynamic vs controlled economy always goes bad for the controlled.

 

[william the wie]

Sounds like a good call but one major problem:

China admits to both 400% leverage and off the books leverage also. At least partial implosion is highly likely.

 

[Manonthestreet]

As exporters feel the heat of the trade war, China’s powerful domestic-consumption engine was supposed to provide some protection for investors in the nation’s stocks.

That’s not working out so well. A narrative that’s captured traders’ attention in recent weeks has been a “consumption downgrade” in the world’s second-biggest economy. With official data already showing retail sales growth slowing, investor alarm increased when China’s biggest liquor maker, Kweichow Moutai Co., reported its weakest profit expansion in almost three years. Chinese stocks are sending a scary signal about the economy

 

[eagle1462010]

3.5 Trillion in imports here...........Very large market.........Very large Leverage......

 

[william the wie]

If Trump is spending most of his time on keeping the left from gridlock China may go under which is not necessarily a good idea. With the current US pivot to India China is under a lot of pressure that might cause an explosion.

 

[WheelieAddict]

12 billion of welfare payments from republicans is winning I guess.
Republicans Fume at Trump's $12 Billion Plan to Aid Farmers

 

[eagle1462010]

12 billion of welfare payments from republicans is winning I guess.
Republicans Fume at Trump's $12 Billion Plan to Aid Farmers

Temp measure while hard line deals are made.................

Other countries are doing it as well........Using the tariffs they apply to subsidize industry during the Trade fight.

 

[WheelieAddict]

12 billion of welfare payments from republicans is winning I guess.
Republicans Fume at Trump's $12 Billion Plan to Aid Farmers

Temp measure while hard line deals are made.................

Other countries are doing it as well........Using the tariffs they apply to subsidize industry during the Trade fight.

How about republicans stop relying on the govt tit and blowing up the deficit with their big govt bullshit.

 

[eagle1462010]

12 billion of welfare payments from republicans is winning I guess.
Republicans Fume at Trump's $12 Billion Plan to Aid Farmers

Temp measure while hard line deals are made.................

Other countries are doing it as well........Using the tariffs they apply to subsidize industry during the Trade fight.

How about republicans stop relying on the govt tit and blowing up the deficit with their big govt bullshit.

I've long wanted a smaller gov't..........am I upset at this right now........NO........because I believe the long term benefits will be better than the short term losses.............

In regards to subsidies.............We shouldn't pick winners and losers..........I'd get rid of them all........but I would remind you that it raises prices..........

This is a short term cost......recovered by the tariffs we impose............will work out in the end.

 

[william the wie]

China seems to be reaching the end of the current legalist dynasty and that is dangerous.

 

[WheelieAddict]

12 billion of welfare payments from republicans is winning I guess.
Republicans Fume at Trump's $12 Billion Plan to Aid Farmers

Temp measure while hard line deals are made.................

Other countries are doing it as well........Using the tariffs they apply to subsidize industry during the Trade fight.

How about republicans stop relying on the govt tit and blowing up the deficit with their big govt bullshit.

I've long wanted a smaller gov't..........am I upset at this right now........NO........because I believe the long term benefits will be better than the short term losses.............

In regards to subsidies.............We shouldn't pick winners and losers..........I'd get rid of them all........but I would remind you that it raises prices..........

This is a short term cost......recovered by the tariffs we impose............will work out in the end.

Yeah I've heard this song and dance before. Sounds a lot like "we cut taxes now and increased the deficit a ton but the deficit will go down in the end because more taxes will be paid, we are fiscally responsible, just wait till later".

Never happens, it's bs.

 

[eagle1462010]

China seems to be reaching the end of the current legalist dynasty and that is dangerous.

They've always been dangerous..........Stealing tech from the rest of the world with a massive labor force.............

Very dangerous indeed.

 

[eagle1462010]

12 billion of welfare payments from republicans is winning I guess.
Republicans Fume at Trump's $12 Billion Plan to Aid Farmers

Temp measure while hard line deals are made.................

Other countries are doing it as well........Using the tariffs they apply to subsidize industry during the Trade fight.

How about republicans stop relying on the govt tit and blowing up the deficit with their big govt bullshit.

I've long wanted a smaller gov't..........am I upset at this right now........NO........because I believe the long term benefits will be better than the short term losses.............

In regards to subsidies.............We shouldn't pick winners and losers..........I'd get rid of them all........but I would remind you that it raises prices..........

This is a short term cost......recovered by the tariffs we impose............will work out in the end.

Yeah I've heard this song and dance before. Sounds a lot like "we cut taxes now and increased the deficit a ton but the deficit will go down in the end because more taxes will be paid, we are fiscally responsible, just wait till later".

Never happens, it's bs.

The sword cuts both ways.............it is equilibrium that we seek..............cut too deep you lose revenue........tax too much do the same.......lose jobs...........

Japan got locked into the liquidity trap and tried both ways and is in debt up to their butts as well .............They tried to find the magic formula forever........tough to say one way or the other...............

This is undecided...............the sky is not falling yet.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Sounds like a good call but one major problem:

China admits to both 400% leverage and off the books leverage also. At least partial implosion is highly likely.

not at all! people have been predicting that for decades especially when they were building empty cities to house millions . Monetary policy is now understood well enough to avoid depressions and most recessions.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

How about republicans stop relying on the govt tit and blowing up the deficit with their big govt bullshit.

Republicans generally have been for making deficits illegal. As soon as Democrats support this is will be law. Do you understand?

 

[Manonthestreet]

Trade war may force Beijing to roll out fresh stimulus, PineBridge says

 

[Manonthestreet]

China’s newest aircraft carrier takes hit from US trade tensions

 

[Manonthestreet]

BEIJING (Reuters) – China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years in 2018 amid weakening domestic demand and bruising U.S. tariffs, adding pressure on Beijing to roll out more support measures to avert a sharper slowdown.
China Set to Announce Weakest Economic Growth in Almost 30 Years…. China’s economy is deep (manufacturing), but it is also very narrow. There is not enough internal domestic consumer activity to sustain their production. As a direct result any manufacturing slowdown has a much more severe impact on their economy; as compared to a more balanced economy.

 

[sparky]

As exporters feel the heat of the trade war, China’s powerful domestic-consumption engine was supposed to provide some protection for investors in the nation’s stocks.

That’s not working out so well. A narrative that’s captured traders’ attention in recent weeks has been a “consumption downgrade” in the world’s second-biggest economy. With official data already showing retail sales growth slowing, investor alarm increased when China’s biggest liquor maker, Kweichow Moutai Co., reported its weakest profit expansion in almost three years. Chinese stocks are sending a scary signal about the economy

Looks like the dive they're in predates Trump's tariffs.....~S~

 

[william the wie]

China has multiple problems:

Increasing pension debts

decreasing birthrates

Even the, always low ball, politburo numbers claim that the national debt load is only 4X China's GDP. With the normal EBITDA accounting used in China I would not hazard a guess as to the real numbers.