Top 10 Military Powers 20 years from now

[The_Halfmoon]

Turkey is currently a top 10 power, and it will expand. The USA will decline dramatically in military spending, there is no way it can possibly continue wasting money on military equipment which does not work in an era of politically educated civilians who will resist. This was evidenced in Iraq/Lebanon, where a bunch of thugs with carbombs and small rockets totally undermined Israeli and the US deterrence capabilities due to their ability to communicate out of uniform and hide amongst civilians.

We're witnessing a new era of assymetrical military tactics that clearly favor armies which have what is called "normative" power. The current militaries have spent a lot of money on precision air power, which is now essentially useless. Ideological warfare may be a major factor, thus you have to also favor highly nationalistic nations. This is a rough guess as to where countries would fare:

1. Russia
2. China
3. USA
4. Turkey
5. Iran
6. Iraq
7. Israel
8. Germany
9. India
10. Brazil

No single european nation I expect in the top 10, but definitely top 5 if the EU had a combined military force.

Some of you may laugh at the list (certainly a bit Iranocentric), but be aware that I take into account geopolitical realities which include OIL and future oil reserves and US debt. Which is why Russia ought to take the top spot and the US will have to reduce defense spending. Iran and Iraq have tremendous normative power. These are nations that for centuries have been war-like and expert fighters. They have had top 5 militaries in the 70s and 80s, and the main reason for their current situation has been wars against each other and in Iraq's case, the most powerful military in the history of mankind. So I'm giving them a break.

 

[eagleseven]

As Ekrem said, even parts of the Russian Cold War arsenal are ahead of some junk the oh so mighty US Army uses today. As a former artillery jock, I am hard pressed to come up with an Self propelled barrel artillery system currently in use by a non third world country that is Worse than the US M109.

The Russian Cold War arsenal was raped by the US Military in the First Gulf War, and that was almost 20 years ago!

Also, the Russians (who were locally outnumbered, who was fighting in Georgia was the 56 Army, not the entire Russian military) totally trounced the US/Israeli trained Georgian army, although the Russians were tactically suprised.

The Russians invaded with T-90s, and the Georgians defended with T-72s. Georgia had almost no US-made heavy equipment, only obsolete Soviet leftovers.

And since when does the defender have the tactical initiative? Russia was the one invading Georgia, remember?

Military equipment of the Georgian Army - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[rightwinger]

Turkey is currently a top 10 power, and it will expand. The USA will decline dramatically in military spending, there is no way it can possibly continue wasting money on military equipment which does not work in an era of politically educated civilians who will resist. This was evidenced in Iraq/Lebanon, where a bunch of thugs with carbombs and small rockets totally undermined Israeli and the US deterrence capabilities due to their ability to communicate out of uniform and hide amongst civilians.

We're witnessing a new era of assymetrical military tactics that clearly favor armies which have what is called "normative" power. The current militaries have spent a lot of money on precision air power, which is now essentially useless. Ideological warfare may be a major factor, thus you have to also favor highly nationalistic nations. This is a rough guess as to where countries would fare:

1. Russia
2. China
3. USA
4. Turkey
5. Iran
6. Iraq
7. Israel
8. Germany
9. India
10. Brazil

No single european nation I expect in the top 10, but definitely top 5 if the EU had a combined military force.

Some of you may laugh at the list (certainly a bit Iranocentric), but be aware that I take into account geopolitical realities which include OIL and future oil reserves and US debt. Which is why Russia ought to take the top spot and the US will have to reduce defense spending. Iran and Iraq have tremendous normative power. These are nations that for centuries have been war-like and expert fighters. They have had top 5 militaries in the 70s and 80s, and the main reason for their current situation has been wars against each other and in Iraq's case, the most powerful military in the history of mankind. So I'm giving them a break.

Sorry...when it comes to Military Power there is the US and everyone else.

You also have to consider the collective power of NATO

 

[mightypeon]

As Ekrem said, even parts of the Russian Cold War arsenal are ahead of some junk the oh so mighty US Army uses today. As a former artillery jock, I am hard pressed to come up with an Self propelled barrel artillery system currently in use by a non third world country that is Worse than the US M109.

The Russian Cold War arsenal was raped by the US Military in the First Gulf War, and that was almost 20 years ago!

Also, the Russians (who were locally outnumbered, who was fighting in Georgia was the 56 Army, not the entire Russian military) totally trounced the US/Israeli trained Georgian army, although the Russians were tactically suprised.

The Russians invaded with T-90s, and the Georgians defended with T-72s. Georgia had almost no US-made heavy equipment, only obsolete Soviet leftovers.

And since when does the defender have the tactical initiative? Russia was the one invading Georgia, remember?

Military equipment of the Georgian Army - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The first Gulf war had modern US equipment against some scraps that Russia saw fit to sell.

Concerning Georgia, from the outset it was clear that Georgia attacked. This was also stated by the EU report.
On the first day, georgia proclaimed a "ceasefire" reshuffled their troops, and then launched a large scale bombardment of Tsinkhvali as well as on Russian peace keeping troops. They then captured Tsinkhvali were the South Ossetian militia barely suceeded in evacuating most of their assests, they, together with the remants of the Russian peace keeping force, succeeded in keeping the Georgias away from the Roki Tunnel.
After 2 days, significant Regular Russian Tank and artillery assets got through the Roki tunnel and kicked Georgias ass.

Again:
1. Georgia captured Tsinvali on day one of hostilities. This alone proves that they were the attackers. In no "suprise" war did the defender ever made advances on day one.
2. Russia had a (several in fact) clear cut Casus Belli to intervene. Casus Belli A: Georgia signed a UN backed treaty which included joint peace keeping operations by Georgians, Russian and South Ossetians in the area. These Russian troops were effectivly backstabbed, and suffered severe losses due to beeing suprise attacked. Casus Belli B: Leveling a city inhabited by Russians (that is, people sporting Russian passports) during a nightime suprise attack is also a Casus Belli. Casus Belli C: Russia was a guaranteeing power of the "peace" in South Ossetia, which means that it can use violent means to restore this peace.
3: Russia showed remarkable restraint concerning its war objctives. Given the way the war went. everybody in the area was totally amazed at Sakshvili actually staying in power. Maybe Russia prefers to have someone incompetent in charge their, he now faces a lot of domestic opposition too.


In General, while the US is very good in Propaganda wars, it seems to make the mistake of believing its own propaganda right now.

 

[germanguy]

As Ekrem said, even parts of the Russian Cold War arsenal are ahead of some junk the oh so mighty US Army uses today. As a former artillery jock, I am hard pressed to come up with an Self propelled barrel artillery system currently in use by a non third world country that is Worse than the US M109.

The Russian Cold War arsenal was raped by the US Military in the First Gulf War, and that was almost 20 years ago!

Also, the Russians (who were locally outnumbered, who was fighting in Georgia was the 56 Army, not the entire Russian military) totally trounced the US/Israeli trained Georgian army, although the Russians were tactically suprised.

The Russians invaded with T-90s, and the Georgians defended with T-72s. Georgia had almost no US-made heavy equipment, only obsolete Soviet leftovers.

And since when does the defender have the tactical initiative? Russia was the one invading Georgia, remember?

Military equipment of the Georgian Army - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The first Gulf war had modern US equipment against some scraps that Russia saw fit to sell.

Concerning Georgia, from the outset it was clear that Georgia attacked. This was also stated by the EU report.
On the first day, georgia proclaimed a "ceasefire" reshuffled their troops, and then launched a large scale bombardment of Tsinkhvali as well as on Russian peace keeping troops. They then captured Tsinkhvali were the South Ossetian militia barely suceeded in evacuating most of their assests, they, together with the remants of the Russian peace keeping force, succeeded in keeping the Georgias away from the Roki Tunnel.
After 2 days, significant Regular Russian Tank and artillery assets got through the Roki tunnel and kicked Georgias ass.

Again:
1. Georgia captured Tsinvali on day one of hostilities. This alone proves that they were the attackers. In no "suprise" war did the defender ever made advances on day one.
2. Russia had a (several in fact) clear cut Casus Belli to intervene. Casus Belli A: Georgia signed a UN backed treaty which included joint peace keeping operations by Georgians, Russian and South Ossetians in the area. These Russian troops were effectivly backstabbed, and suffered severe losses due to beeing suprise attacked. Casus Belli B: Leveling a city inhabited by Russians (that is, people sporting Russian passports) during a nightime suprise attack is also a Casus Belli. Casus Belli C: Russia was a guaranteeing power of the "peace" in South Ossetia, which means that it can use violent means to restore this peace.
3: Russia showed remarkable restraint concerning its war objctives. Given the way the war went. everybody in the area was totally amazed at Sakshvili actually staying in power. Maybe Russia prefers to have someone incompetent in charge their, he now faces a lot of domestic opposition too.


In General, while the US is very good in Propaganda wars, it seems to make the mistake of believing its own propaganda right now.

Just to add my feeble thoughts:

Any of the military powers on the list will be or are frightening adversaries.
On the other hand, the more sophisticated the military becomes, the more difficult it seems to "properly" win a war.
Any country - except the US - on the list would have at minimum problems to fight a war against one of the other and winning it.

Imagine a war, let´s say Germany and China.

I suppose, that our Bundeswehr would not have even have more than a handful of U-Boats and frigates to throw against China. Vice versa China might be able to nuke us or send bombers around the globe. But we would not be able to deliver war to each other.
Same with Turkey and Brazil or India and the UK.

More likely are wars between neighbouring countries, but this already shows, that most countries with large armies and the industrial capacity are still only regional military powers.

Leaves the US.

China might, if investing enough money, be able to start an arms race. But on the long, they have more strategic problems than the US.

Now the US:
Even they are not able to conquer a third-world-state and occupy it without signs of overstretching the troops. So they might be able to project power nearly everywhere upon this planet, but it seems, that this starts to fade away.
As regional powers like Brazil are becoming more powerful, this diminishes the weight of the US power.

But we all have left out one player who has a lot of things running well for him:
Iran

Although in the uncomfortable and direct neighbourhood of two large US contingents (Iraq and Afghanistan) a lot of things are pointing in the direction of this country to become one of the next big regional powers.

1. The population is rising constantly and already about 70 million, mostly very young and well educated.
2. The next regional power is Iraq, which is out of the game for the next time
3. The other regional states are too weak to count, exept Turkey, but I see no problems there.
4. Iran already has the money (oil & gas) and the fundament of a large scale industry.
Therefore, 10 - 20 years from now, they will have their own arms production and nearly be self-reliable.

I daresay, that the Iranians will not go nuclear, but gain the capacity to do so. Just to prove they can do it.
They will modernize and enlarge their military and will be the force in the gulf against which nothing will be accomplished.

regards
ze germanguy

 

[eots]

they will all bow down united federation of planets....

 

[germanguy]

they will all bow down united federation of planets....

Yes !
Fuck the Dominion !

Live long and prosper !

(Crap..how to unfold my middle fingers)

regards
ze germanguy

 

[eagleseven]

Concerning Georgia, from the outset it was clear that Georgia attacked. This was also stated by the EU report.

Why did Russia keep fighting until they reached the BTC pipeline? Russia advanced well past South Ossetia, despite the fact that the Georgians had no desire to fight the Russian bear.

That is like saying Luxembourg invaded Germany...ludicrous!

 

[JeremyNight]

they will all bow down united federation of planets....

Hahaha! True!

 

[Toro]

1. Canada - After decades of ruinous monetary and fiscal policies, the US dollar collapses and Canada buys America for $20 million. Canada replaces its armed forces with America's, but all Americans are forced to accept universal healthcare, take French in school, and accept hockey as the new national sport.

 

[eagleseven]

1. Canada - After decades of ruinous monetary and fiscal policies, the US dollar collapses and Canada buys America for $20 million. Canada replaces its armed forces with America's, but all Americans are forced to accept universal healthcare, take French in school, and accept hockey as the new national sport.

NEVAAAAAAAAAAAR!

 

[mightypeon]

Concerning Georgia, from the outset it was clear that Georgia attacked. This was also stated by the EU report.

Why did Russia keep fighting until they reached the BTC pipeline? Russia advanced well past South Ossetia, despite the fact that the Georgians had no desire to fight the Russian bear.

That is like saying Luxembourg invaded Germany...ludicrous!

Actually, its a bit more like Venezuela (Georgia) attacking Columbia (South Ossetia)and killing US troops (which were there under an agreement Venezuela signed) in the process, leading to a US intervention in force.
Or like China attacking Taiwan, triggering a US intervention by killing US troops (again, Georgia is more at fault since they formally invited the Russians they backstabbed). From a international rights viewpoint (number of states that actually acknowledge Taiwan) Taiwan is not much more of a state than South Ossetia, iirc the most powerfull state that recognices them is Ghana, followed by the Vatican.

Or, to get back to your Luxemburg exampe: Belgium tries to annex Luxemburg, kills Germans while doing so, Germany kicks Belgiums arse.

 

[mudwhistle]

I heard Singapore can open a can of whoopass when it wants to.

 

[GHook93]

1. US - American will be #1 in 20 years and beyond.
2. Russia - With all their nukes its hard to see them not at #2.
3. India - I like the author assessment; While China has dominated at building small manufacturing goods; India has dominated by stealing the world's Research and Development teams; India also produces more new scientist than any other country; not to mention they will have a larger population tha
4. China - The soon to be 2nd largest economy in the world; they have the brutal fighting spirit and the numbers.
5. UK - The Brits know how to fight, always have and always will; The author is right they have pound for pound the toughest navy!
6. Germany - Still a good fighting force dispite the Libtards taking over the country
7. Brazil - The author is right; These guys are emerging on every front; they are building to an economic superpower, their military is large, they have an abundance in resources and 200 million people
8. Japan - 137 million people, best fighting spirit in the world; strong navy and airforce
9. France - Sorry, but the Frogs have been pussies for too long to make them higher!
10. South Korea - See what the author said

 

[GHook93]

I will break them down.
5. Brazil, France, Italy, Turkey, South Corea - I had a feeling you would bring Turkey into the equation. They have a large military worth mentioning. But the Italians should be left out
6. Israel and Spain - Spain is not a player and while pound for pound Israel has the toughest military in the world; she is way to small to be a real player.
7. Indonesia, Mexico, Canada, Pakistan - All 3rd rate militaries at best; although Canada has a modern military, they still rely on their big brother to the south for protection
8. Egypt, Australia, Argentina, Sweden - Egypt with help from America is becoming a player and might worthy of top 10 considerations; Australia has a well trained military, but too small a population; Argentina and Sweden , who are you crappin?
9. Saudi-Arabia - Um No
10. Iran, Thailand, Ukraine - Iran is a paper dragon, their biggest weapon is hurting world oil supplies; Ukraine somewhat; Thailand, lol NO
11. Greece - LOL, NO

This is very speculative, as many factors have to be considered, such as Know-How, economy, ressources, changeing security threats (like Japan) etc.

But, for next 20 years without considering nuclear capability i would say:

1. USA
2. Russia and China
3. UK and Japan
4. Germany and India
5. Brazil, France, Italy, Turkey, South Corea
6. Israel and Spain
7. Indonesia, Mexico, Canada, Pakistan
8. Egypt, Australia, Argentina, Sweden
9. Saudi-Arabia
10. Iran, Thailand, Ukraine
11. Greece

 

[mightypeon]

Some other musings:

In South East Asia, Vietnamh has a sizeable population and roughly 2 millenia experience of fighting against whoever was the or one of the worlds most dominant powers of that time. Given that, compared to a world dominating power, their population isnt that sizeable at all, they performed quite well no matter if their opponents were Expanionist Chinese Dynasties, the Mongol Empire, the Imperial French, the Japanese or the USA.
If Vietnam and Thailand come to blows my bet would be on Vietnam.

Do you know the difference between Indian technology stealing and Chinese technology stealing? The Chinese do it better.
And much more...
Much Much More...
Id wager that "Dalai Lama Support" by European countries uninterested in the strategic region (Germany, Skandinavia, the Benelux countries etc.) has a lot to do with the wish to show displeasure for chinese attempts at furnishing "innovative transfer of knowledge".