The_Halfmoon
Member
Turkey is currently a top 10 power, and it will expand. The USA will decline dramatically in military spending, there is no way it can possibly continue wasting money on military equipment which does not work in an era of politically educated civilians who will resist. This was evidenced in Iraq/Lebanon, where a bunch of thugs with carbombs and small rockets totally undermined Israeli and the US deterrence capabilities due to their ability to communicate out of uniform and hide amongst civilians.
We're witnessing a new era of assymetrical military tactics that clearly favor armies which have what is called "normative" power. The current militaries have spent a lot of money on precision air power, which is now essentially useless. Ideological warfare may be a major factor, thus you have to also favor highly nationalistic nations. This is a rough guess as to where countries would fare:
1. Russia
2. China
3. USA
4. Turkey
5. Iran
6. Iraq
7. Israel
8. Germany
9. India
10. Brazil
No single european nation I expect in the top 10, but definitely top 5 if the EU had a combined military force.
Some of you may laugh at the list (certainly a bit Iranocentric), but be aware that I take into account geopolitical realities which include OIL and future oil reserves and US debt. Which is why Russia ought to take the top spot and the US will have to reduce defense spending. Iran and Iraq have tremendous normative power. These are nations that for centuries have been war-like and expert fighters. They have had top 5 militaries in the 70s and 80s, and the main reason for their current situation has been wars against each other and in Iraq's case, the most powerful military in the history of mankind. So I'm giving them a break.
We're witnessing a new era of assymetrical military tactics that clearly favor armies which have what is called "normative" power. The current militaries have spent a lot of money on precision air power, which is now essentially useless. Ideological warfare may be a major factor, thus you have to also favor highly nationalistic nations. This is a rough guess as to where countries would fare:
1. Russia
2. China
3. USA
4. Turkey
5. Iran
6. Iraq
7. Israel
8. Germany
9. India
10. Brazil
No single european nation I expect in the top 10, but definitely top 5 if the EU had a combined military force.
Some of you may laugh at the list (certainly a bit Iranocentric), but be aware that I take into account geopolitical realities which include OIL and future oil reserves and US debt. Which is why Russia ought to take the top spot and the US will have to reduce defense spending. Iran and Iraq have tremendous normative power. These are nations that for centuries have been war-like and expert fighters. They have had top 5 militaries in the 70s and 80s, and the main reason for their current situation has been wars against each other and in Iraq's case, the most powerful military in the history of mankind. So I'm giving them a break.
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