The worse case---Earth 2100

I never said there was. I'm saying that the magnitude of the current change (among other points) makes it ridiculous to suggest that our CO2 is high because some other factor has warmed the planet. This is not a natural cycle.

And it is neither due to TSI.

By the way, in response to your condescension, do get fucked.

There isn't the slightest thing ridiculous about it considering the fact that the Earth has warmed numerous times in the recent past.

Do you have any evidence that it has done so in the past at the rate in which it is doing so today?

Oh my the mann Hockey stick has a hold on this one.

800px-All_palaeotemps.png


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record
 
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So if today is not a natural cycle --- but the glacials WERE ---- why is the CO2 ratio virtually the same?

I'd say because in every case we're talking about the same planet and what is sustainable in it's environs is likely determined by the mix of the atmosphere, the buffering available in its exposed geology and, of course, our oceans. If you want to say that it IS a natural cycle, you can explain why CO2 concentrations have already hit levels not seen in millions of years and will undoubtedly reach values higher yet. But I wouldn't bother with that till you've solved the great mystery as to how humans could burn the gigatonnes of fossil fuels which they have burned without producing almost exactly the amount of excess CO2 which we find in today's atmosphere and oceans.

If CO2 is the only important climate driver --- hows come we don't see a 7 or 10degC change???

The amount of time from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution till today would not cross a single pixel on the graph we've been looking at. If we continue producing GHGs as we are at present, we will see a 7 or 10 degree C rise.

Is it because the glacials were largely driven by "OTHER" effects? If so -- what makes you think that today is "unnatural"?

Are you under the impression that I believe our ice ages were precipitated by a shortage of CO2? My favored theory is simply Milankovitch with feedbacks.

Causes of ice ages (Wikipedia)

The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for both the large-scale ice age periods and the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age. The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years[41] ); changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the Earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth-Moon system; and the impact of relatively large meteorites, and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.[citation needed]
Some of these factors influence each other. For example, changes in Earth's atmospheric composition (especially the concentrations of greenhouse gases) may alter the climate, while climate change itself can change the atmospheric composition (for example by changing the rate at which weathering removes CO2).
Maureen Raymo, William Ruddiman and others propose that the Tibetan and Colorado Plateaus are immense CO2 "scrubbers" with a capacity to remove enough CO2 from the global atmosphere to be a significant causal factor of the 40 million year Cenozoic Cooling trend. They further claim that approximately half of their uplift (and CO2 "scrubbing" capacity) occurred in the past 10 million years.[42][43]
*******************************************************

Physics predicts a 1.2degC warming per doubling of CO2.. That's a little more than what we've seen during the last century.. And if NATURAL forces drove the temperature swing HIGHER during the glacials --- then that all makes sense..

Climate science gives a climate sensitivity value of 3C/doubling for the real climate. Prior to this I thought I recalled you claiming that the CO2, lab result sensitivity was on the order of 0.4C. Good to see you fall in with the rest of the world. Of course the rest is provided by positive feedback mechanisms: Water vapor, albedo changes and methane releases.

OR --- you could tell me whats unnatural about observing a 0.8 degC rise for a 40% increase in CO2??? You think it should be MORE than that? I'll cop to the fact that man may have contributed some to that rise. But it's demonstrably LESS of an effect than the NATURAL forces applied during the glacials..

When as much time has passed as was required for the full onset of any of the glacial periods, ask again.

OR --- maybe the OP is a big steaming pile and we shouldn't be drawing conclusions about whether CO2 is HIGHER than it's been for the past 400,000 yrs??

OR MAYBE --- it takes 10,000 yrs for a 40% CO2 increase to send the climate into a 10degC over-drive ???

Or maybe under a natural regime it took 10,000 years for the CO2 levels to get high enough to drive a 10C increase

CLEARLY CO2 didn't drive the climate during those glacial epochs..

As I attempted to say earlier - with the graph you didn't like - surely it did. You see CO2, methane and water vapor listed as possible causes of ice ages. We come out of ice ages when CO2 and the rest rise. Shakun found CO2 to be a second stage driver to temperature increases.


And OBSERVATION is that our trivial 0.8degC rise (or so) is NOT unexpected.. But CO2 is NOT gonna drive the climate into meltdown as predicted by AGW.. Because if it COULD do that --- it would have done it during the glacial epochs..

You don't think 7-10C would constitute a meltdown?
 
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Mostly babble.. That's what we get.. BS about Skakun finding CO2 as a "secondary" driver...

SAME PERCENTAGE increase BULLWINKLE... ABSOLUTE CO2 levels are not relevent here..

FUCK the "climate science" 3drgC/doubling.. It isn't ever gonna happen.. That's not physics --- it's arm-waving fortune telling.

And I've been highly consistent with the number I found in MULTIPLE ATMOS physics textbooks. It's ALWAYS been 1.2 -- to 1.5degC per doubling.. But thats WITHOUT calculating the OVERLAP spectrum with water vapor. So SOMETIMES I do call it more like 0.4degC or 0.6degC/doubling..

Bottom line -- this thread sucks.. There is no significance to the ABSOLUTE level of CO2 today versus during the glacials. BUT -- there is a huge difference in the climate reaction to the SAME RATIO increase of CO2..
 
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Your placement wrt to modesty must be equally extreme.

Perhaps. But since the two are mutually exclusive conditions, it's also irrelevant.

The graph you provided arguing Dunning-Kruger says precisely the opposite.

And I have to wonder the 'truthiness' of this statement given you seem to expect us to believe you. Why don't you post an image of your test results with a personal note added for veracity's sake.

You're the one who brought it up. When you failed at argumentation, you attempted to retort with false information. When you failed with facts, you resorted to ridicule. Now that you've failed with that, you're responding with more explicit ad hominems that reek of desperation.

I did no such thing.

I have known a fair number of very intelligent, very educated people. I've never noticed that any of them possess the ego or the insecurity you've displayed here. If you're as intelligent as you claim, how is it that the only field in which you've demonstrated any skill is abusing others? Your immediate claims to a superior intellect were the sort of thing you'd expect from an eight-year old, not any adult I've ever met. Your attacks on others reek of a personal insecurity that has to drive down all around you in order to keep your head above water.

I've got to confess, I'm such an ignoramus I've never heard that word. Neither have five dictionaries, two encyclopedias or two search engines.

Of course you haven't. It's not an actual word. Next time before you try using your word-a-day selection in a sentence, you might try looking up its etymology.

As a cover-up, that was simply pathetic. Next time try to remain within your own linguistic limitations.

What word choice of mine do you believe was inappropriate based on its etymology?

No, actually, it is not. You said they were as relevant to AGW as was your statement about the Quaternary. Since the Quaternary's relevance to AGW was never established, neither were your three falsities.

Mea culpa.

Live with it. Learn from it.

I forgot that you're one of those spoon fed types. You only know that raw information which has been specifically implanted directly into your brain. No ability to gleam knowledge or understanding on your own.

I think I've had just about enough of the insult-fest. If you actually have an observation to make about the climate, I'd be interested. But I don't think you do. I think your specialty is restricted to insulting people and bragging like a spoiled toddler. But, hey, surprise us.
 
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Mostly babble.. That's what we get.. BS about Skakun finding CO2 as a "secondary" driver...

I'm assuming you know what result I refer to. If you think that's BS, please explain why.

SAME PERCENTAGE increase BULLWINKLE... ABSOLUTE CO2 levels are not relevent here..

I say they are. I say you're sticking with percentage increases because they support your hypothesis, not because it reflects any real physical phenomena.

FUCK the "climate science" 3drgC/doubling.. It isn't ever gonna happen.. That's not physics --- it's arm-waving fortune telling.

It's the conclusion of several hundred scientists all smarter, better educated, more experienced and just plain smarter than you. Guess whose word I'm gonna take?

And I've been highly consistent with the number I found in MULTIPLE ATMOS physics textbooks. It's ALWAYS been 1.2 -- to 1.5degC per doubling.. But thats WITHOUT calculating the OVERLAP spectrum with water vapor. So SOMETIMES I do call it more like 0.4degC or 0.6degC/doubling..

That's being highly consistent?

Bottom line -- this thread sucks.. There is no significance to the ABSOLUTE level of CO2 today versus during the glacials. BUT -- there is a huge difference in the climate reaction to the SAME RATIO increase of CO2..

I think it serves one purpose: to show that current CO2 levels are not natural. There were very few people actually making that contention, so it's not of enormous value. But we did get to meet a new playmate. Don't you love Mr SwimExpert? He seems like quite an asset for your side of the argument being so smart and all. Really...
 
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I have known a fair number of very intelligent, very educated people. I've never noticed that any of them possess the ego or the insecurity you've displayed here.

The truth is that you know nothing about me. So let me tell you a little bit. I was raised by parents who were extreme narcissists. When my giftedness was discovered in my childhood they became obsessed with it. They tried to push me mercilessly by placing extremely unreasonable demands on me, and constantly punished me when I did not live up to them. Their hope was that I would be a real life Doogie Howser, and that they could ride my coat tails to notoriety. When I was 7 years old I was a poor speller. Thinking that they would "set me straight" my parents once decided to withhold me from school one Friday and force me to remember all my spelling words correctly, to ensure a 100% grade on my weekly test. They spent all day drilling me on my spelling list, and severely beat me for every wrong answer. When I went back to school on Monday school officials questioned me about my many visible wounds, and then my parents as well. A couple days later I was withdrawn from school and within weeks we moved out of state. My parents realized they had to learn new tactics and spent the rest of my upbringing subjecting me to substantial mental abuse and torture.

A year later, as I was entering the third grade, I had learned that the best way to resist my parents was to rebel against my abilities. Mainly, I felt like all the hype that they kept feeding me as ridiculous, because I thought that the only things I was "good" at were things that were ridiculously easy. I couldn't understand how any of it could be said to be difficult. My parents pressed the school based on the fact that my end of year assessment tests showed I was on at least a 5th grade level in every area other than my primary weakness of spelling. But by this point I had learned that the most effective way to counteract my parents' crushing demands of me was to reject any effort to be smart. So the school puzzled over the fact that I was getting very poor grades and when questioned I constantly said that I didn't understand the material. So the school though I might be autistic. That's when they brought in the shrink to have me evaluated. I have to admit he was good. I didn't really realize at the time why I was spending so much time away from class with this guy, or that he was sizing me up. As part of the process I was given an IQ test for the first time. My gig was up. He confronted me about my act, and I tepidly admitted what I had been doing, with a lukewarm explanation as to why. He recommended that I not be skipped ahead out of concern that it would have an overall negative impact on me. To this day, I'm honestly not sure whether or not that was the better decision. On one hand feeding into my parents' ego would have made my life more of a living hell. On the other, the lack of adequate cognitive stimulation was a nightmare of its own.

The following year my parents tried to press the school again to skip me ahead by at least one year, but again to no avail thanks to my continued resistance. My fourth grade teacher, to this day, was an important influence in my life. She constantly challenged my attitude and refused to buy my act (which, of course, had now been documented by the school system as a farce), but did so productively. Unfortunately, she also ended up under investigation briefly, after my year end assessment test results were "too good to be true." By this point, I was testing on a 7th grade level in almost every category, and nearly on a high school level in sciences.

By the time I was 10 my parents' favorite form of mental torture was to harass me about my giftedness, and to throw my IQ test in my face. That's right, what ought to have been compliments were used as indictments against me. I wanted nothing more than to be "normal" because I was sick and tired of being the bad guy and for having the burden of my parents' own irrational need to have their ego stroked. This continued for pretty much the rest of my life, until I finally had the opportunity to leave the house and put them in my past. As time passed I had to come to terms with my irrational guilt over my giftedness. I tried to attribute it to wanting to be modest, but the truth is that I had become pretty self destructive, to the point where I had become extremely adverse to achieving success in almost anything. Eventually, I had to make peace with my giftedness, and in doing so take my life back for myself.

So if you find my confidence to be offensive to you, you're just going to have to suck it up and deal with it. This is my life, and I live it for myself. I know that we live in a world where everyone gets a participation ribbon and there are no winners or losers. But I've long since abandoned the practice of dumbing myself down for anyone else's ego. And I don't owe it to you or anyone else to do any differently.
 
There isn't the slightest thing ridiculous about it considering the fact that the Earth has warmed numerous times in the recent past.

Do you have any evidence that it has done so in the past at the rate in which it is doing so today?

Oh my the mann Hockey stick has a hold on this one.

800px-All_palaeotemps.png


Geologic temperature record - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not surprisingly, your graph doesn't answer my question. Do you have any evidence that it has done so in the past at the rate in which it is doing so today?
 
I have known a fair number of very intelligent, very educated people. I've never noticed that any of them possess the ego or the insecurity you've displayed here.

The truth is that you know nothing about me. So let me tell you a little bit. I was raised by parents who were extreme narcissists. When my giftedness was discovered in my childhood they became obsessed with it. They tried to push me mercilessly by placing extremely unreasonable demands on me, and constantly punished me when I did not live up to them. Their hope was that I would be a real life Doogie Howser, and that they could ride my coat tails to notoriety. When I was 7 years old I was a poor speller. Thinking that they would "set me straight" my parents once decided to withhold me from school one Friday and force me to remember all my spelling words correctly, to ensure a 100% grade on my weekly test. They spent all day drilling me on my spelling list, and severely beat me for every wrong answer. When I went back to school on Monday school officials questioned me about my many visible wounds, and then my parents as well. A couple days later I was withdrawn from school and within weeks we moved out of state. My parents realized they had to learn new tactics and spent the rest of my upbringing subjecting me to substantial mental abuse and torture.

A year later, as I was entering the third grade, I had learned that the best way to resist my parents was to rebel against my abilities. Mainly, I felt like all the hype that they kept feeding me as ridiculous, because I thought that the only things I was "good" at were things that were ridiculously easy. I couldn't understand how any of it could be said to be difficult. My parents pressed the school based on the fact that my end of year assessment tests showed I was on at least a 5th grade level in every area other than my primary weakness of spelling. But by this point I had learned that the most effective way to counteract my parents' crushing demands of me was to reject any effort to be smart. So the school puzzled over the fact that I was getting very poor grades and when questioned I constantly said that I didn't understand the material. So the school though I might be autistic. That's when they brought in the shrink to have me evaluated. I have to admit he was good. I didn't really realize at the time why I was spending so much time away from class with this guy, or that he was sizing me up. As part of the process I was given an IQ test for the first time. My gig was up. He confronted me about my act, and I tepidly admitted what I had been doing, with a lukewarm explanation as to why. He recommended that I not be skipped ahead out of concern that it would have an overall negative impact on me. To this day, I'm honestly not sure whether or not that was the better decision. On one hand feeding into my parents' ego would have made my life more of a living hell. On the other, the lack of adequate cognitive stimulation was a nightmare of its own.

The following year my parents tried to press the school again to skip me ahead by at least one year, but again to no avail thanks to my continued resistance. My fourth grade teacher, to this day, was an important influence in my life. She constantly challenged my attitude and refused to buy my act (which, of course, had now been documented by the school system as a farce), but did so productively. Unfortunately, she also ended up under investigation briefly, after my year end assessment test results were "too good to be true." By this point, I was testing on a 7th grade level in almost every category, and nearly on a high school level in sciences.

By the time I was 10 my parents' favorite form of mental torture was to harass me about my giftedness, and to throw my IQ test in my face. That's right, what ought to have been compliments were used as indictments against me. I wanted nothing more than to be "normal" because I was sick and tired of being the bad guy and for having the burden of my parents' own irrational need to have their ego stroked. This continued for pretty much the rest of my life, until I finally had the opportunity to leave the house and put them in my past. As time passed I had to come to terms with my irrational guilt over my giftedness. I tried to attribute it to wanting to be modest, but the truth is that I had become pretty self destructive, to the point where I had become extremely adverse to achieving success in almost anything. Eventually, I had to make peace with my giftedness, and in doing so take my life back for myself.

So if you find my confidence to be offensive to you, you're just going to have to suck it up and deal with it. This is my life, and I live it for myself. I know that we live in a world where everyone gets a participation ribbon and there are no winners or losers. But I've long since abandoned the practice of dumbing myself down for anyone else's ego. And I don't owe it to you or anyone else to do any differently.


Translation: It's not about climate change. It's all about SwimExpert.
 
I have known a fair number of very intelligent, very educated people. I've never noticed that any of them possess the ego or the insecurity you've displayed here.

The truth is that you know nothing about me. So let me tell you a little bit. I was raised by parents who were extreme narcissists. When my giftedness was discovered in my childhood they became obsessed with it. They tried to push me mercilessly by placing extremely unreasonable demands on me, and constantly punished me when I did not live up to them. Their hope was that I would be a real life Doogie Howser, and that they could ride my coat tails to notoriety. When I was 7 years old I was a poor speller. Thinking that they would "set me straight" my parents once decided to withhold me from school one Friday and force me to remember all my spelling words correctly, to ensure a 100% grade on my weekly test. They spent all day drilling me on my spelling list, and severely beat me for every wrong answer. When I went back to school on Monday school officials questioned me about my many visible wounds, and then my parents as well. A couple days later I was withdrawn from school and within weeks we moved out of state. My parents realized they had to learn new tactics and spent the rest of my upbringing subjecting me to substantial mental abuse and torture.

A year later, as I was entering the third grade, I had learned that the best way to resist my parents was to rebel against my abilities. Mainly, I felt like all the hype that they kept feeding me as ridiculous, because I thought that the only things I was "good" at were things that were ridiculously easy. I couldn't understand how any of it could be said to be difficult. My parents pressed the school based on the fact that my end of year assessment tests showed I was on at least a 5th grade level in every area other than my primary weakness of spelling. But by this point I had learned that the most effective way to counteract my parents' crushing demands of me was to reject any effort to be smart. So the school puzzled over the fact that I was getting very poor grades and when questioned I constantly said that I didn't understand the material. So the school though I might be autistic. That's when they brought in the shrink to have me evaluated. I have to admit he was good. I didn't really realize at the time why I was spending so much time away from class with this guy, or that he was sizing me up. As part of the process I was given an IQ test for the first time. My gig was up. He confronted me about my act, and I tepidly admitted what I had been doing, with a lukewarm explanation as to why. He recommended that I not be skipped ahead out of concern that it would have an overall negative impact on me. To this day, I'm honestly not sure whether or not that was the better decision. On one hand feeding into my parents' ego would have made my life more of a living hell. On the other, the lack of adequate cognitive stimulation was a nightmare of its own.

The following year my parents tried to press the school again to skip me ahead by at least one year, but again to no avail thanks to my continued resistance. My fourth grade teacher, to this day, was an important influence in my life. She constantly challenged my attitude and refused to buy my act (which, of course, had now been documented by the school system as a farce), but did so productively. Unfortunately, she also ended up under investigation briefly, after my year end assessment test results were "too good to be true." By this point, I was testing on a 7th grade level in almost every category, and nearly on a high school level in sciences.

By the time I was 10 my parents' favorite form of mental torture was to harass me about my giftedness, and to throw my IQ test in my face. That's right, what ought to have been compliments were used as indictments against me. I wanted nothing more than to be "normal" because I was sick and tired of being the bad guy and for having the burden of my parents' own irrational need to have their ego stroked. This continued for pretty much the rest of my life, until I finally had the opportunity to leave the house and put them in my past. As time passed I had to come to terms with my irrational guilt over my giftedness. I tried to attribute it to wanting to be modest, but the truth is that I had become pretty self destructive, to the point where I had become extremely adverse to achieving success in almost anything. Eventually, I had to make peace with my giftedness, and in doing so take my life back for myself.

So if you find my confidence to be offensive to you, you're just going to have to suck it up and deal with it. This is my life, and I live it for myself. I know that we live in a world where everyone gets a participation ribbon and there are no winners or losers. But I've long since abandoned the practice of dumbing myself down for anyone else's ego. And I don't owe it to you or anyone else to do any differently.


Translation: It's not about climate change. It's all about SwimExpert.

LOL. Them that have it don't have to brag about it. :lol:
 
SAME PERCENTAGE increase BULLWINKLE... ABSOLUTE CO2 levels are not relevent here..

I say they are. I say you're sticking with percentage increases because they support your hypothesis, not because it reflects any real physical phenomena.

Impossible to talk about CO2 levels with a person who doesn't realize that the CO2 forcing function (W/m2) is ALWAYS taken as a ratio (percentage) of some reference concentration.

flacaltenn-albums-charts-picture3908-co2force.png


??? "... no real physical phenomena eh" -- ?? Not in your fact-free, math-free world I guess.. The one created with crayoned in drawings from skepticalscience..

When the PERCENTAGE increase is the same ---- the temperature increase is supposed to be the same.. THAT'S why its curious that for the SAME PERCENTAGE change --- the temperature deviation during the glacials was 5 times what we get today..

And I AM being consistent with the CO2 ONLY warming and what can be accounted for SOLELY from CO2 effects on the GHouse. It's 1.2degC WITHOUT accounting for band overlap with H2O.. And about 60% of that when H2O overlap is included for those heights of the atmos where most of the water vapor lives..

Anything ABOVE that calls upon the Magic Multipliers which are the CRUX of my objections to your AGW "beliefs"..
 
The rate of infrared absorption is a function of CO2 concentration, not the percentage increase over some arbitrary value.
 
The rate of infrared absorption is a function of CO2 concentration, not the percentage increase over some arbitrary value.

OMG.. You just fling math aside like it doesn't matter. The function is logarithmic. So a 100 ppm increase at one point in the curve is gonna give different results than at another. BUT PERCENTAGES (or the C/Co ratios) will give consistent results ANYWHERE on the curve.

That's why your assertion that I was using percentages just to be ornery is so dad-gum funny.

Only thing I get out of Abraham convos is the humor... Reevaluating my investment constantly. Waiting for that giant nugget to pop out and pay off..
 
The rate of infrared absorption is a function of CO2 concentration, not the percentage increase over some arbitrary value.

OMG.. You just fling math aside like it doesn't matter. The function is logarithmic. So a 100 ppm increase at one point in the curve is gonna give different results than at another. BUT PERCENTAGES (or the C/Co ratios) will give consistent results ANYWHERE on the curve.

That's why your assertion that I was using percentages just to be ornery is so dad-gum funny.

Only thing I get out of Abraham convos is the humor... Reevaluating my investment constantly. Waiting for that giant nugget to pop out and pay off..

Ahem:

Heat Stored by Greenhouse Gases
 
I have known a fair number of very intelligent, very educated people. I've never noticed that any of them possess the ego or the insecurity you've displayed here.

The truth is that you know nothing about me. So let me tell you a little bit.


No thanks.

You REALLY need help but you're not going to get it here. We could care less. This place is for arguing about the climate, not sorting out your personal issues.

Time for the ignore list. Nighty-night Timmy.
 
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This thread is really quite funny. You guys tried to make some arguments, but you failed because your logic was bad. You tried again, but then you failed because your facts were bad. So now you've spend the past several pages trying to make personal attacks. But you've failed at that even worse than your original failures. So now you reach your final hope to save face. Hatred, ignorance, and the outright disregard for hard math.
 
This thread is really quite funny. You guys tried to make some arguments, but you failed because your logic was bad. You tried again, but then you failed because your facts were bad. So now you've spend the past several pages trying to make personal attacks. But you've failed at that even worse than your original failures. So now you reach your final hope to save face. Hatred, ignorance, and the outright disregard for hard math.

Really? I posted the math here:
Heat Stored by Greenhouse Gases

And you have yet to address it. So it would appear that it is you who has disregarded the math, chump.
 
Do you have any evidence that it has done so in the past at the rate in which it is doing so today?

Oh my the mann Hockey stick has a hold on this one.

800px-All_palaeotemps.png


Geologic temperature record - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not surprisingly, your graph doesn't answer my question. Do you have any evidence that it has done so in the past at the rate in which it is doing so today?

Actually the graph answers your question, just that you still want to peddle your AGW propaganda.
 

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