The world in 2050

[ekrem]

Hello. The last days, there was media-reports in several languages that

E-7 (china, India, Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, Mexiko, Brazil)

will throw G-7 from the crown of biggest economies.

Here you can download the report from Pricewaterhousecoopers:
http://www.pwcglobal.com/ru/eng/about/press-rm/Report_2050_eng.pdf


From 2005-2050 following economies will grow in average:


India: 7,6%
Indonesia: 7,3
China: 6,3
Turkey: 5,6
Brasil: 5,4
Mexiko: 4,8
Russia: 4,6
S.korea: 3,3
Kanada: 2,6
Australia: 2,6
USA: 2,4
Spain: 2,3
UK: 1,9
France: 1,9
Italy: 1,5
Germany: 1,5
Japan: 1,2


-------------------------------------------


Biggest economies in 2050
(Relative size to US economy):

country --- 2005 USA - 2050 USA - GDP/p.P in 2050
1. USA - 100% - 100% - 88.443 $
2. China - 18% - 94% - 23.534 $
3. India - 6 - 58% - 12.773 $
4. Japan - 39% - 23% - 70.646 $
5. Brasil - 5 % - 20 % - 26.924 $
6. Indonesia - 2 % - 19 % - 23.097 $
7. Mexiko - 6 % - 17 % - 42.879 $
8. UK - 18 % - 15 % - 75.855 $
Germany- 23 % - 15 % - 68.216 $
9. Russia - 5 % - 13 % - 41.876 $
France - 17 % - 13 % - 74.685 $
10. Turkey - 3% - 10 % - 35.861 $
Italy - 14 % - 10 % - 66.165 $
11. Kanada - 8 % - 9 % - 75.425 $
12. Spain - 9 % - 8 % - 66.552 $
S. Korea - 6 % - 8 % - 66.489 $
13. Australia - 5 % - 6 % - 74.00 $

 

[ekrem]

Emerging Countries To Overtake G7 By 2050

China and other emerging economies will soon catch up or even overtake the leading western industrialized nations as the world's biggest economies by 2050, a study published by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in Frankfurt showed on Friday, reports Agence France Presse (03/03).



According to the study, while the US was likely to hold on to the number one position by the middle of the 21st century, China was likely to follow closely as the world's second biggest economy. The current number two and three economies -- Japan and Germany respectively -- would slip in the rankings. Japan would fall behind India and Brazil to become the fourth biggest economy in the world, while Germany would fall even further to rank number eight behind Mexico, the consultancy firm estimated. Demographic changes would play a key role in the redistribution of economic power around the world. While the birth rate was low in Germany, the number of people of a working age was rising in almost all developing nations aside from China and Russia. For the current Group of Seven (G7) richest nations -- Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the US -- the development would bring both advantages and disadvantages.



The Independent (UK, 03/03) and The Canberra Times (Australia, 03/06) write that PwC found that people with low or medium-level skills would come under threat - both from having their jobs moved overseas and having them taken by migrant labor. Eventually, even high-skilled professionals such as lawyers and accountants could find their livelihoods under threat from increasingly well-qualified citizens of the “E7” (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey). But it said that many business sectors and trades would be better off as long as Western countries adapted to take advantage of a surge in wealth in these fast-growing countries.



The Guardian (UK, 03/06) writes that over the coming years, this group of emerging economies will grow in number and size, according to the report. By 2050, the firm estimates the E7 will have a combined size at least 25 percent bigger than the G7, and perhaps 75 percent bigger, depending on the measure used to gauge the size of an economy. Measured using market exchange rates, the GDP of China is 18 percent that of the US; by 2050 PwC forecasts it will be 94 percent as big. Using purchasing power parity (PPP) - which takes into account that a dollar in China buys more than a dollar in the US, China's GDP is already 76 percent as big as that of the US; by 2050 it could be almost half as big again.



China's ageing population means it won't sustain its high levels of growth for much longer, according to John Hawksworth, PwC's Chief Economist. India, with its younger population, will be the fastest growing of the E7 nations, and will be as big as the US (by PPP) by the middle of the century. Britain will continue its decline down the league table. Having just been overtaken by China as the world's fourth biggest economy (at market rates), Britain will have slipped below India, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico to ninth place by 2050.



The Times (UK, 03/03) notes that Hawksworth said Britain should see being overtaken by these economies as an opportunity, and not a threat. With investment in education, Britain could successfully specialize to its advantage while enjoying the benefits of low-cost imports from emerging markets, he said. Figures from the Office for National Statistics highlight the size of the opportunity for UK companies. The figures show that the share of Britain's exports going to the E7 economies was only five percent in 2004. This compared with about 44 percent going to the other six G7 countries.

Cited as the countries to watch are:
- Mexico, which has 105 million people, a falling state ownership of industry and free trade agreements with the US and the EU;

- Indonesia, which is the world's fourth-largest country by population, with 242 million people and five times the land mass of Germany, spread over 18,000 islands;

- and Turkey, which has 70 million people and is projected to have the fastest-growing working-age population of any large economy except India.

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXT...2~piPK:64256810~theSitePK:4607,00.html#Story3

 

[NATO AIR]

Thanks, this is great news and a hopeful development for the future.

 

[Toro]

Maybe, maybe not.

Nobody has any ideas.

Those forecasts are based on models where, if the assumptions change slightly, there can be a dramatic change in the long-term outlook. And remember, these are emerging countries with emerging problems. There is no gaurantee that there will be the political and institutional stability required to get to these levels.

Also, US share of GDP today is about the same as it was 100 years ago.