The Victims Are Back At Work! Gallup Mid-Sept. UE Rate At 7.9%

Discussion in 'Economy' started by mascale, Sep 20, 2012.

  1. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    Three major indices of employment and unemployment rates have been trending in the strong-economy direction in recent months. ADP payroll numbers are major increasing. The official unemployment rate is trending to 8% or below. And now Gallup, mid-September, has its unemployment rate at 7.9% and decreasing. The Gallup reporting shows a trend over several months.

    U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Rate at 7.9% in Mid-September

    New Unemployment filings jump up and down, but if housing starts are increasing, housing prices rising, and new home sales increasing: Then someone, likely somewhere, is at work! Housing itself is again a better investment than a bunch of bundled mortagages, sold by Lehman(?)!

    Those are so hard to find, even now(?)!

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (Many warriors not on Lands of Many Nations call young braves, "grasshopper(?)!" Young-Quail-That-Spots-Them maybe stoked(?)!)
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2012
  2. Oddball
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  3. pinqy
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    The ADP numbers only cover their own clients. That's a lot of the labor market they can't account for. It's a decent early indicator, but not particularly reliable. the official jobs numbers have been considerably under the ADP estimates for a few months, and most of the gains have been in the services industry, and a big chunk in temp services. An increase in temp services is a good sign a recovery is coming, but it also means it hasn't come yet.

    Unfortunately, a lot of that is due to a smaller labor force. From July to August, both Employment and Unemployment decreased. So lower rate, but not for the right reasons.

    Gallup's error for their UE rate is +/- 1% at the 95% confidence level. So all their 7.9% tells us is that the real rate is somewhere between 6.9% and 8.9% The trend is definitely something to look at, and since Gallup is more timely than BLS it's a good early indicator, but it's not that accurate.

    And they're not at a bad level, but they need to get lower for real job growth.


    Basically, things ARE getting better, but very slowly and not with a whole lot of momentum.
     
  4. mascale
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    mascale VIP Member

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    Census Bureau reported only today that compared to last year, there are 14% fewer young adults living with their parents this year, compared with last year. New housing starts are up. Housing Prices are up. New Home Sales are up.

    Someone has to be work on a job somewhere, and with some momentum sufficient to bang nails into lumber(?)!

    The trending of all the various reports is easily more reliable than just the one count of young adults, staring at ceilings--on which Rep. Ryan appears to rely.

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (Census reminds everyone that "The Great Recession" only now appears to have bottomed out, according to its tracking measures--and not those used by everyone else!)
     

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