The US government underestimated solar energy installation in the US by 4,813%

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Solar is good but it's my wind generators that really powers everything. I did my homework and research on the wind flow up here Took me almost a year. The Tesla batteries were about $3,500 each....installed.
 
Interesting.

The US government underestimated solar energy installation in the US by 4,813%

The only thing certain in this life are death, taxes and the US department of energy’s massive underestimate of renewable energy capacity.

Every two years, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), America’s official source for energy statistics, issues scenarios about how much solar, wind and conventional energy the future holds for the US. Every two years, since the mid-1990s, the EIA is wrong. Last year, it was spectacularly wrong.

The Natural Resources Defense Council and Statista recently teamed up to analyze the EIA’s predictions for energy usage and production. It found that the EIA’s ten-year estimates between 2006 to 2016 systematically understated the share of wind, solar and gas. Solar capacity, in particular, was a whopping 4,813% more in 2016 than the EIA had predicted it would be.

And now that we know the growth in solar energy was grossly underestimated, is Trump revising his push to invest in coal rather than solar? I doubt it. And what country is taking the lead in solar energy technology and implementations?

China IDLES most of it's renewables way too often. It's a SUPPLEMENT to them. Not a fundamental power source. And that's the way it should be. Because neither wind/solar are predictable, dependable. Can't sign a contract to buy 4GWatts of wind energy next Tuesday. Not even a marketable business if it wasn't completely subsidized.

As far as the Govt being spectacularly wrong. Welcome to my world. They are messing in WAY too many things with brains that NEVER practiced in those areas. Fire those folks at EIA making the predictions. But to be FAIR -- 10 years out in 2006, nobody saw the BAILOUTS and price declines coming from solar factory closing and consolidation. And the high investments by the states in pouring buckets of subsidies into this "supplement" which is NOT an "alternative"..

It's NOT coal vs solar. They are not alternatives. Never were. Solar is a daytime PEAKING source. It allows you defer construction on NEW power generation until you use up your margin of demand reserve for mid day peaks. That's really ALL it is.....
It's a SUPPLEMENT to them. Not a fundamental power source. And that's the way it should be. Because neither wind/solar are predictable, dependable.

What? How do you manage to arrive at a normative conclusion about what energy sources one or a country should use as its primary source of energy, be it now or in the future?

Since when is the Sun not reliable? Solar energy does not need to be used on an "as you go" basis. Energy collected from the Sun can be stored for later use. No doubt after the next large-enough asteroid hits and the planet becomes wrapped in a shroud of dust and smoke, the Sun won't be as effective an energy source. Be that as it may, if such an asteroid -- one that envelops the planet in a thick dust cloud -- well, what energy source any nation or individual uses isn't going to be a big concern, not nearly as much as will be merely surviving, and the fact of the matter is that humans survived for a long time without power plants of any sort. Until such a calamity, however, the Sun is a reliable enough energy source.

The solar insolation at mid lattitudes is good for 8 hours a day. LESS if you're not somehow gimbaled mechanically. For a single home, you can propose storage. Although you need to more than DOUBLE the power of the collection system to GET excess for storage. Then -- the 1/4 ton of BATTERIES you need to store the power is an enviro nightmare if EVERYBODY did that. The scale of storage for a supermarket is unworkable in terms of environment and economics.

You have no grid scale solution to make solar a PRIMARY grid generator. The avg use in Cali summers at 10PM is 80% of the mid day peak. So you can relieve the mid-day peak by 15% or so with solar. And you still need 100% RELIABLE PRIMARY generation for cloudy/rainy/snowy days. You do not build advanced societies on "maybe" power.

It's a SUPPLEMENT -- never an "alternative"..
 
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I've invested some major dollars in making my home/property, totally self-sufficient. I can disconnect from the power grid indefinitely.

Disconnect from the grid and report back. If you can ........................ :dev3: Need daily reports on your welfare.

Never any nights when the wind doesn't blow? Or do have a mountain of toxic waste battery farm to get you thru the windless 16hours a day when your solar is not producing?
A 90 kw/hr lithium ion battery can be had for as little as $7000. That sounds like quite an adequate backup.

And the invertor/control/installation will be another $3000 or more. That's YEARS of a 1KW home electricity bill. Probably wouldn't pay it off until the batteries needed replacement ---- if EVER...
 
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Solar is good but it's my wind generators that really powers everything. I did my homework and research on the wind flow up here Took me almost a year. The Tesla batteries were about $3,500 each....installed.

Cheapest PowerWall battery bank is $3000. It's a 7KWh capacity. Comes without an invertor and switching. That's about another $1200.. PLUS installation. What am I missing here?
 
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I've invested some major dollars in making my home/property, totally self-sufficient. I can disconnect from the power grid indefinitely.

Disconnect from the grid and report back. If you can ........................ :dev3: Need daily reports on your welfare.

Never any nights when the wind doesn't blow? Or do have a mountain of toxic waste battery farm to get you thru the windless 16hours a day when your solar is not producing?
A 90 kw/hr lithium ion battery can be had for as little as $7000. That sounds like quite an adequate backup.

What's the peak output? Who makes it? I'm seriously doubting the $7K price. If that's true -- Musk is toast.
 
Interesting.

The US government underestimated solar energy installation in the US by 4,813%

The only thing certain in this life are death, taxes and the US department of energy’s massive underestimate of renewable energy capacity.

Every two years, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), America’s official source for energy statistics, issues scenarios about how much solar, wind and conventional energy the future holds for the US. Every two years, since the mid-1990s, the EIA is wrong. Last year, it was spectacularly wrong.

The Natural Resources Defense Council and Statista recently teamed up to analyze the EIA’s predictions for energy usage and production. It found that the EIA’s ten-year estimates between 2006 to 2016 systematically understated the share of wind, solar and gas. Solar capacity, in particular, was a whopping 4,813% more in 2016 than the EIA had predicted it would be.

And now that we know the growth in solar energy was grossly underestimated, is Trump revising his push to invest in coal rather than solar? I doubt it. And what country is taking the lead in solar energy technology and implementations?

China IDLES most of it's renewables way too often. It's a SUPPLEMENT to them. Not a fundamental power source. And that's the way it should be. Because neither wind/solar are predictable, dependable. Can't sign a contract to buy 4GWatts of wind energy next Tuesday. Not even a marketable business if it wasn't completely subsidized.

As far as the Govt being spectacularly wrong. Welcome to my world. They are messing in WAY too many things with brains that NEVER practiced in those areas. Fire those folks at EIA making the predictions. But to be FAIR -- 10 years out in 2006, nobody saw the BAILOUTS and price declines coming from solar factory closing and consolidation. And the high investments by the states in pouring buckets of subsidies into this "supplement" which is NOT an "alternative"..

It's NOT coal vs solar. They are not alternatives. Never were. Solar is a daytime PEAKING source. It allows you defer construction on NEW power generation until you use up your margin of demand reserve for mid day peaks. That's really ALL it is.....
It's a SUPPLEMENT to them. Not a fundamental power source. And that's the way it should be. Because neither wind/solar are predictable, dependable.

What? How do you manage to arrive at a normative conclusion about what energy sources one or a country should use as its primary source of energy, be it now or in the future?

Since when is the Sun not reliable? Solar energy does not need to be used on an "as you go" basis. Energy collected from the Sun can be stored for later use. No doubt after the next large-enough asteroid hits and the planet becomes wrapped in a shroud of dust and smoke, the Sun won't be as effective an energy source. Be that as it may, if such an asteroid -- one that envelops the planet in a thick dust cloud -- well, what energy source any nation or individual uses isn't going to be a big concern, not nearly as much as will be merely surviving, and the fact of the matter is that humans survived for a long time without power plants of any sort. Until such a calamity, however, the Sun is a reliable enough energy source.

The solar insolation at mid lattitudes is good for 8 hours a day. LESS if you're not somehow gimbaled mechanically. For a single home, you can propose storage. Although you need to more than DOUBLE the power of the collection system to GET excess for storage. Then -- the 1/4 ton of BATTERIES you need to store the power is an enviro nightmare if EVERYBODY did that. The scale of storage for a supermarket is unworkable in terms of environment and economics.

You have no grid scale solution to make solar a PRIMARY grid generator. The avg use in Cali summers at 10PM is 80% of the mid day peak. So you can relieve the mid-day peak by 15% or so with solar. And you still need 100% RELIABLE PRIMARY generation for cloudy/rainy/snowy days. You do not build advanced societies on "maybe" power.

It's a SUPPLEMENT -- never an "alternative"..
Did it fully escape you that you are describing an operational paradigm that might apply to some people/places in the U.S. and that my remark had to do with China where (1) there is a different paradigm and (2) the government is investing vastly more than the does our government in overcoming the challenges of collecting, using, storing, etc. solar power?

One thing's certain: not putting in the effort needed to find ways to overcome those challenges is easily the surest way to either not overcome them or overcome them well after others who invested the effort, thereby relegating oneself into a "catch up" position rather than securing for oneself a leading position. As goes the development and implementation of new and innovative clean energy collection, storage, management, distribution, etc. means/modes, at the moment, the U.S. is well behind other nations, most notably, China, though China isn't the world's current leader in the actual deployment of solar energy usage implementations. (I believe Germany is the current leader in that dimension of the matter.)

Truly, I'm not even convinced by your unsubstantiated assertions that the operational model you described is accurate on all scale levels -- individual, industrial/enterprise and governmental -- even in the U.S.

Hell, solar isn't the only clean energy option, and truly, the central point/goal is to replace non-readily-renewable energy sources with ones that are readily renewable. Thus whether solar, wind and/or other renewable sources are or can be used in concert or exclusively isn't really the point.
I don't much care whether individuals/entities obtain their electricity from a power company that produces it via one or several renewable sources or whether an individual obtains it by producing for themselves. Which of those two approaches turns out to be the most efficacious remains to be seen.
(Solar seems to be the one approach that is readily implementable on an individual level, whereas hydrogen, wind, and water are probably not viable for most or even many individual energy production situations and purposes.)

Aside:
Call me crazy if you want, but while Trump and his cohorts apparently define their patriotism with regard to superficial things like whether one stands during the National Anthem, I define mine in terms of being proud of my country for being the leader in key dimensions that actually matter and that have real and positive impacts on the way each individual lives. Being first in the discovery, development and implementation of technologies is without question one of those things that has real and positive impacts on human lifestyles. The U.S. used to be first in the implementation and exploration of technological advances, but as goes energy production, it seems Trump doesn't want the U.S. to lead humanity's evolution from non-renewable energy production to renewable energy production. That's nothing to be proud of.​
 
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I've invested some major dollars in making my home/property, totally self-sufficient. I can disconnect from the power grid indefinitely.

Disconnect from the grid and report back. If you can ........................ :dev3: Need daily reports on your welfare.

Never any nights when the wind doesn't blow? Or do have a mountain of toxic waste battery farm to get you thru the windless 16hours a day when your solar is not producing?
A 90 kw/hr lithium ion battery can be had for as little as $7000. That sounds like quite an adequate backup.

What's the peak output? Who makes it? I'm seriously doubting the $7K price. If that's true -- Musk is toast.
No, Mr. Flacaltenn, Musk is not toast. For, if you look in google for wrecked Tesla autos, you will find an occasional Tesla 90, in which the battery has not been damage, but the car is completely totaled. I have seen three in that condition, with a price of about $7000. As an engineer, you should find it easy to figure out what inverter to match the battery with, and, voila, you have a 90 kw/hr storage battery for about $7000.
 
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Solar is good but it's my wind generators that really powers everything. I did my homework and research on the wind flow up here Took me almost a year. The Tesla batteries were about $3,500 each....installed.

Cheapest PowerWall battery bank is $3000. It's a 7KWh capacity. Comes without an invertor and switching. That's about another $1200.. PLUS installation. What am I missing here?
The Powerwall 2 is what you are missing. Price I have seen on it is $5500, it is 13.5 kw/hr storage, up to a 5 kw draw, and comes with the invertor already part of the package.
 
The Powerwall 2 is what you are missing. Price I have seen on it is $5500, it is 13.5 kw/hr storage, up to a 5 kw draw, and comes with the invertor already part of the package.
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I wouldn't go quoting what the on line price states. Considering rebates, tax incentives and bulk purchases of 2 or more, the price drops dramatically. I did not include all the peripherals that were purchased separately, the price of an extended warranty and other incidental costs
 

China IDLES most of it's renewables way too often. It's a SUPPLEMENT to them. Not a fundamental power source. And that's the way it should be. Because neither wind/solar are predictable, dependable. Can't sign a contract to buy 4GWatts of wind energy next Tuesday. Not even a marketable business if it wasn't completely subsidized.

As far as the Govt being spectacularly wrong. Welcome to my world. They are messing in WAY too many things with brains that NEVER practiced in those areas. Fire those folks at EIA making the predictions. But to be FAIR -- 10 years out in 2006, nobody saw the BAILOUTS and price declines coming from solar factory closing and consolidation. And the high investments by the states in pouring buckets of subsidies into this "supplement" which is NOT an "alternative"..

It's NOT coal vs solar. They are not alternatives. Never were. Solar is a daytime PEAKING source. It allows you defer construction on NEW power generation until you use up your margin of demand reserve for mid day peaks. That's really ALL it is.....
It's a SUPPLEMENT to them. Not a fundamental power source. And that's the way it should be. Because neither wind/solar are predictable, dependable.

What? How do you manage to arrive at a normative conclusion about what energy sources one or a country should use as its primary source of energy, be it now or in the future?

Since when is the Sun not reliable? Solar energy does not need to be used on an "as you go" basis. Energy collected from the Sun can be stored for later use. No doubt after the next large-enough asteroid hits and the planet becomes wrapped in a shroud of dust and smoke, the Sun won't be as effective an energy source. Be that as it may, if such an asteroid -- one that envelops the planet in a thick dust cloud -- well, what energy source any nation or individual uses isn't going to be a big concern, not nearly as much as will be merely surviving, and the fact of the matter is that humans survived for a long time without power plants of any sort. Until such a calamity, however, the Sun is a reliable enough energy source.

The solar insolation at mid lattitudes is good for 8 hours a day. LESS if you're not somehow gimbaled mechanically. For a single home, you can propose storage. Although you need to more than DOUBLE the power of the collection system to GET excess for storage. Then -- the 1/4 ton of BATTERIES you need to store the power is an enviro nightmare if EVERYBODY did that. The scale of storage for a supermarket is unworkable in terms of environment and economics.

You have no grid scale solution to make solar a PRIMARY grid generator. The avg use in Cali summers at 10PM is 80% of the mid day peak. So you can relieve the mid-day peak by 15% or so with solar. And you still need 100% RELIABLE PRIMARY generation for cloudy/rainy/snowy days. You do not build advanced societies on "maybe" power.

It's a SUPPLEMENT -- never an "alternative"..
Did it fully escape you that you are describing an operational paradigm that might apply to some people/places in the U.S. and that my remark had to do with China where (1) there is a different paradigm and (2) the government is investing vastly more than the does our government in overcoming the challenges of collecting, using, storing, etc. solar power?

One thing's certain: not putting in the effort needed to find ways to overcome those challenges is easily the surest way to either not overcome them or overcome them well after others who invested the effort, thereby relegating oneself into a "catch up" position rather than securing for oneself a leading position. As goes the development and implementation of new and innovative clean energy collection, storage, management, distribution, etc. means/modes, at the moment, the U.S. is well behind other nations, most notably, China, though China isn't the world's current leader in the actual deployment of solar energy usage implementations. (I believe Germany is the current leader in that dimension of the matter.)

Truly, I'm not even convinced by your unsubstantiated assertions that the operational model you described is accurate on all scale levels -- individual, industrial/enterprise and governmental -- even in the U.S.

Hell, solar isn't the only clean energy option, and truly, the central point/goal is to replace non-readily-renewable energy sources with ones that are readily renewable. Thus whether solar, wind and/or other renewable sources are or can be used in concert or exclusively isn't really the point.
I don't much care whether individuals/entities obtain their electricity from a power company that produces it via one or several renewable sources or whether an individual obtains it by producing for themselves. Which of those two approaches turns out to be the most efficacious remains to be seen.
(Solar seems to be the one approach that is readily implementable on an individual level, whereas hydrogen, wind, and water are probably not viable for most or even many individual energy production situations and purposes.)

Aside:
Call me crazy if you want, but while Trump and his cohorts apparently define their patriotism with regard to superficial things like whether one stands during the National Anthem, I define mine in terms of being proud of my country for being the leader in key dimensions that actually matter and that have real and positive impacts on the way each individual lives. Being first in the discovery, development and implementation of technologies is without question one of those things that has real and positive impacts on human lifestyles. The U.S. used to be first in the implementation and exploration of technological advances, but as goes energy production, it seems Trump doesn't want the U.S. to lead humanity's evolution from non-renewable energy production to renewable energy production. That's nothing to be proud of.​

If you understand how you GUARANTEE the highest expected demand on the grid from day to day -- you could skip all of your political wonkiness and cut to the nut of the difference.

CHINA was building more than a COAL plant per week. Up until about 2014 or so. They are STILL constructing TONS of nuclear, coal, hydro. They now have larger HYDRO capacity than we have.

A country that is actively EXPANDING their backbone RELIABLE 24/7/365 generation capacity --- can AFFORD to add "peaker technologies" like wind and solar. And only really use them -- when they expect the source will be on-line for quite awhile during the day... Otherwise, you idle them. To prevent OVERSUPPLYING the grid or wear/tear on the MAIN generators cycling them up and down.

The US --- OTH --- is experiencing Peak Demand stasis. NOT building anymore massive BACKBONE generation. There is a much smaller limit on how much of the "supplement" power you can bring on the grid. And you certainly CAN NOT replace existing generation with wind/solar.

China's not replacing existing generation with wind/solar. They are ADDING IT as they can within engineering limits as they build out MASSIVE NEW capacity...

Stick to the engineering/economics/planning part of this. Don't go all wonky on what China is doing UNLESS you understand the engineering.
 
You should always believe I make nothing up. But in case you don't...

Growing pains of China's wind power industry

China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest producer of wind power at the end of 2010. However, China's wind power industry has been troubled with growing pains.

The State Grid Corporation of China (State Grid) and the Inner Mongolia Grid, an independent provincial power grid, have ensured that all of the wind turbines connected to their power grids are government-approved. However, they cannot allow all of these turbines to operate simultaneously.

One reason for this is the fluctuating nature of wind power. Some industry officials believe that wind power may pose a serious threat to power grid stability, saying that wind power should account for less than 5 to 10 percent of any given power grid's total power. However, on April 8, 2010, wind power accounted for 18.7 percent of the Inner Mongolia Grid's total power without any negative repercussions.

A great deal of wind power is wasted during the winter season, when thermal power generators are used to supply heat for most of Inner Mongolia's residents. The Inner Mongolia Grid prefers to use thermal power generators because they can generate electric power while simultaneously creating steam, which can be used to heat homes and businesses in the region.

Tao Ming, director of the Siziwang Banner wind power office, says "during the winter, the grid gives priority to generating power with thermal power generators. Inner Mongolia has relatively low demands for electric power because of its underdeveloped industries. Thermal power plants can work at full steam, while wind turbines have to remain idle."
 
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Solar is good but it's my wind generators that really powers everything. I did my homework and research on the wind flow up here Took me almost a year. The Tesla batteries were about $3,500 each....installed.

Cheapest PowerWall battery bank is $3000. It's a 7KWh capacity. Comes without an invertor and switching. That's about another $1200.. PLUS installation. What am I missing here?
The Powerwall 2 is what you are missing. Price I have seen on it is $5500, it is 13.5 kw/hr storage, up to a 5 kw draw, and comes with the invertor already part of the package.

Comes with an invertor in the pkg BECAUSE it's $5500. The old 10KWh one was $3500 WITHOUT it. And with price drops since 2015 -- that accounts for it..
 

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