The trigger to our economic destruction: Default

Big Fitz

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Nov 23, 2009
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I've been reading up a little on the Wiemar Republic and have come to the conclusion that default was the key to the collapse of that nation and the inevitable rise of the Nazi party there. After the WR defaulted on it's reparation payments from WW1, it started a panic and inflation that the government tried to print its way out of causing inflation to the tune of 25000% plus over the course of 10 months. Going from 4 to 1 against the dollar to 1 million to 1 against. It was not until they did a 'currency reset' that was worth a TRILLION to one marks was the confidence in the economy restored enough to re-stabilize the nation financially.

Unfortunately by then, radical groups had used the unrest during that time to seize control. The communists had driven the National Socialist party to control the legislature, the Chancellors kept falling and then came the fascist purge of communism from the Nazi party as that group gained control away from the Leninist style central authority proponents. This of course precipitated what was to become the rise of Hitler, the WW2 and the final solution.

Remember, default was the trigger.

Just consider where we sit now. Obama has printed trillions of fiat dollars with nothing to back them through the fed (a policy that has been a mistake through the entire second term of Bush as well). The last time we printed this crazy was under carter who inflated the currency 13% and gave us crazy inflation that when totaled equaled around 130% when it finally calmed down. This is only a small fraction of what we've printed since 04.

We've been spending on all sorts of programs that inhibit economic growth, not encourage it while demonizing and taxing and badgering everyone who DOES encourage growth. The travel industry, hospitality industry, manufacturing, energy... so many have been demonized by this administration. They're fleeing the nation because A) we've made it easy to do so since Clinton (NAFTA, CAFTA, FTAA and other privileged trade agreements). and B) The government has made it far less profitable to stay here. Not to mention C) we allow foreign nations to flood our market with sub standard and cheaper labor and use it like a slave labor force, driving down the real price of labor in this nation.

Now, it's sexy to talk about being tough and letting the government default, but the consequences are incredibly bad. There must be four things done to save us from this and they must be done before Aug 2nd. The problem is that we have a game of political brinkmanship going on that will destroy this nation in 12 months if not done.

1. Cut government spending by trillions. (Keynes is dead... get used to it)
2. Simplify and lower taxes on all Americans while ending social engineering tax payouts.
3. Raise the debt limit to prevent default.
4. Audit the fed and start shutting it down.

We don't have much choice, and I doubt that our elected officials have the political will do do the smart thing here. So, are you ready for it? I know I'm not yet. I do not wish to live in the era American died by it's own foolish hand. They say there are two ways empires die: By the Sword or by the Worm.
 
As I have been saying for 3 years now - this is NOT and economic downturn.
This is an economic transformation. America is in a transitional stage from an era of treating debt as income to an era of having to live within our means.
We will all suffer some NOW. Or our children will suffer GREATLY later.
In fact - I am telling you with 100% certainty - our government fails us again and once again kicks the problem down the road - we are taking the chance that America permanently loses it's place in the world - and China takes over as the only superpower.
 
I've been reading up a little on the Wiemar Republic and have come to the conclusion that default was the key to the collapse of that nation and the inevitable rise of the Nazi party there. After the WR defaulted on it's reparation payments from WW1, it started a panic and inflation that the government tried to print its way out of causing inflation to the tune of 25000% plus over the course of 10 months. Going from 4 to 1 against the dollar to 1 million to 1 against. It was not until they did a 'currency reset' that was worth a TRILLION to one marks was the confidence in the economy restored enough to re-stabilize the nation financially.

Unfortunately by then, radical groups had used the unrest during that time to seize control. The communists had driven the National Socialist party to control the legislature, the Chancellors kept falling and then came the fascist purge of communism from the Nazi party as that group gained control away from the Leninist style central authority proponents. This of course precipitated what was to become the rise of Hitler, the WW2 and the final solution.

Remember, default was the trigger.

Just consider where we sit now. Obama has printed trillions of fiat dollars with nothing to back them through the fed (a policy that has been a mistake through the entire second term of Bush as well). The last time we printed this crazy was under carter who inflated the currency 13% and gave us crazy inflation that when totaled equaled around 130% when it finally calmed down. This is only a small fraction of what we've printed since 04.

We've been spending on all sorts of programs that inhibit economic growth, not encourage it while demonizing and taxing and badgering everyone who DOES encourage growth. The travel industry, hospitality industry, manufacturing, energy... so many have been demonized by this administration. They're fleeing the nation because A) we've made it easy to do so since Clinton (NAFTA, CAFTA, FTAA and other privileged trade agreements). and B) The government has made it far less profitable to stay here. Not to mention C) we allow foreign nations to flood our market with sub standard and cheaper labor and use it like a slave labor force, driving down the real price of labor in this nation.

Now, it's sexy to talk about being tough and letting the government default, but the consequences are incredibly bad. There must be four things done to save us from this and they must be done before Aug 2nd. The problem is that we have a game of political brinkmanship going on that will destroy this nation in 12 months if not done.

1. Cut government spending by trillions. (Keynes is dead... get used to it)
2. Simplify and lower taxes on all Americans while ending social engineering tax payouts.
3. Raise the debt limit to prevent default.
4. Audit the fed and start shutting it down.

We don't have much choice, and I doubt that our elected officials have the political will do do the smart thing here. So, are you ready for it? I know I'm not yet. I do not wish to live in the era American died by it's own foolish hand. They say there are two ways empires die: By the Sword or by the Worm.

Comparing our economy to the Wiemar Republic's is a bit of a stretch.
 
I've been reading up a little on the Wiemar Republic and have come to the conclusion that default was the key to the collapse of that nation and the inevitable rise of the Nazi party there. After the WR defaulted on it's reparation payments from WW1, it started a panic and inflation that the government tried to print its way out of causing inflation to the tune of 25000% plus over the course of 10 months. Going from 4 to 1 against the dollar to 1 million to 1 against. It was not until they did a 'currency reset' that was worth a TRILLION to one marks was the confidence in the economy restored enough to re-stabilize the nation financially.

Unfortunately by then, radical groups had used the unrest during that time to seize control. The communists had driven the National Socialist party to control the legislature, the Chancellors kept falling and then came the fascist purge of communism from the Nazi party as that group gained control away from the Leninist style central authority proponents. This of course precipitated what was to become the rise of Hitler, the WW2 and the final solution.

Remember, default was the trigger.

Just consider where we sit now. Obama has printed trillions of fiat dollars with nothing to back them through the fed (a policy that has been a mistake through the entire second term of Bush as well). The last time we printed this crazy was under carter who inflated the currency 13% and gave us crazy inflation that when totaled equaled around 130% when it finally calmed down. This is only a small fraction of what we've printed since 04.

We've been spending on all sorts of programs that inhibit economic growth, not encourage it while demonizing and taxing and badgering everyone who DOES encourage growth. The travel industry, hospitality industry, manufacturing, energy... so many have been demonized by this administration. They're fleeing the nation because A) we've made it easy to do so since Clinton (NAFTA, CAFTA, FTAA and other privileged trade agreements). and B) The government has made it far less profitable to stay here. Not to mention C) we allow foreign nations to flood our market with sub standard and cheaper labor and use it like a slave labor force, driving down the real price of labor in this nation.

Now, it's sexy to talk about being tough and letting the government default, but the consequences are incredibly bad. There must be four things done to save us from this and they must be done before Aug 2nd. The problem is that we have a game of political brinkmanship going on that will destroy this nation in 12 months if not done.

1. Cut government spending by trillions. (Keynes is dead... get used to it)
2. Simplify and lower taxes on all Americans while ending social engineering tax payouts.
3. Raise the debt limit to prevent default.
4. Audit the fed and start shutting it down.

We don't have much choice, and I doubt that our elected officials have the political will do do the smart thing here. So, are you ready for it? I know I'm not yet. I do not wish to live in the era American died by it's own foolish hand. They say there are two ways empires die: By the Sword or by the Worm.

Comparing our economy to the Wiemar Republic's is a bit of a stretch.
Not really. The devastation to our manufacturing sector by abandonment is just as severe as if it was bombed out.
 
Skip right ovah that Treaty of Versaille did ya?

Default would be terrible..but it would not lead to economic collapse.

But it might forever end our dominance as an economic super power.
 
Skip right ovah that Treaty of Versaille did ya?

Default would be terrible..but it would not lead to economic collapse.

But it might forever end our dominance as an economic super power.

Ahh our corporations have pretty much already taken care of that detail.
 
Skip right ovah that Treaty of Versaille did ya?

Default would be terrible..but it would not lead to economic collapse.

But it might forever end our dominance as an economic super power.
and that warms your heart doesn't it?
 
Skip right ovah that Treaty of Versaille did ya?

Default would be terrible..but it would not lead to economic collapse.

But it might forever end our dominance as an economic super power.
and that warms your heart doesn't it?

I'm not on the side of the aisle that wants default.

I like living in an economic super power. Worked for the financial industry for 15 years.
 
we will not default. *shrugs* read the moodys and s&p downgrade warnings.....its the debt., and the spending vs. gdp etc. period end of story.

Iam hits the mark I think;

something like 8 trillion dollars of supposed assets of equity was crushed in the last 4 years. the house as an asset is done for the foreseeable future unless you have not used it as an atm and, bought it over 20 years ago and even then. So the people retiring now, the baby boomers have a real estate market that is depressed and not hit bottom on a glutted market. their retirement income is constricted and just now due to what appears to be a healthy market is OK, bit they will run thou it faster and anther big bang will level them back 20%.....

I got my yearly assessment and appraisal in the mail last week on my home from the county. I bought in 2001, before the rockets really took off, I live in a 25 year old cul de sac of whats considered exclusive homes in a fairly protected pocket of san jose, our values have gone down much more slowly than the area overall, but, they have assessed us at 20K below my buy price, so officially in one context they see us under water and are reducing our taxes this year. My market price supposedly is 10% higher though.

so after 10 years my equity is almost exactly what I have paid down, I have not used my home as an atm, I have also been making payments of one and half times my monthly set mortgage to get it down to payoff in less than 20 years......but, that doesn't appear to have been a good idea, I should have been putting the money in my life ins. polices as looking at the next 13 years the rate of return on those will be higher than the equity return in my home. so basically I have been or will be punished to an extent becasue I was a responsible homeowner.....unreal.

there are TONS of folks sitting here just like me the responsible homeowner, ipso facto the gov. has not helped home ownership as a generational value for folks like me, they have totally fucked it.
 
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Skip right ovah that Treaty of Versaille did ya?

Default would be terrible..but it would not lead to economic collapse.

But it might forever end our dominance as an economic super power.
and that warms your heart doesn't it?

I'm not on the side of the aisle that wants default.

I like living in an economic super power. Worked for the financial industry for 15 years.
Then I'm surprised. I used to think Default was a good idea till I saw the economic consequences.
 
I don't think we're going to default now, this year. BUT, what about in 5 or 10 years? What's going to happen when the debt is at 25-30 trillion and we're paying more than half of our revenues to interest?
 
As I have been saying for 3 years now - this is NOT and economic downturn.
This is an economic transformation. America is in a transitional stage from an era of treating debt as income to an era of having to live within our means.
We will all suffer some NOW. Or our children will suffer GREATLY later.
In fact - I am telling you with 100% certainty - our government fails us again and once again kicks the problem down the road - we are taking the chance that America permanently loses it's place in the world - and China takes over as the only superpower.

Iam, I've known you for a while now. And you know some of my thoughts as well.

Your post confuses me. If our entire budget is died up in interst and entitlements, where is the means for us to live within? It would seem we have no means. I think you sense the danger we face even though you are younger than I. I sense it because of my parents who lived through the Great Depression. How poor will we become?

I pass a road every day called 'Poor Farm Road.' There really was a poor farm on that road at one time. Will we return to the days of poor farms, and debter's prisons?

Describe the transformation you predict.
 
"The communists had driven the National Socialist party to control the legislature.."


:lol:
read your history. learn something. I was just as surprised to know that the National Socialist party of Germany purged dissimilar forms of fascism (socialism/leninism/marxism) from the party to unite behind their particular brand).

Though I was not surprised to find all that mess in the same group vying for control. Similar minds and all.
 
we will not default. *shrugs* read the moodys and s&p downgrade warnings.....its the debt., and the spending vs. gdp etc. period end of story.

Iam hits the mark I think;

something like 8 trillion dollars of supposed assets of equity was crushed in the last 4 years. the house as an asset is done for the foreseeable future unless you have not used it as an atm and, bought it over 20 years ago and even then. So the people retiring now, the baby boomers have a real estate market that is depressed and not hit bottom on a glutted market. their retirement income is constricted and just now due to what appears to be a healthy market is OK, bit they will run thou it faster and anther big bang will level them back 20%.....

I got my yearly assessment and appraisal in the mail last week on my home from the county. I bought in 2001, before the rockets really took off, I live in a 25 year old cul de sac of whats considered exclusive homes in a fairly protected pocket of san jose, our values have gone down much more slowly than the area overall, but, they have assessed us at 20K below my buy price, so officially in one context they see us under water and are reducing our taxes this year. My market price supposedly is 10% higher though.

so after 10 years my equity is almost exactly what I have paid down, I have not used my home as an atm, I have also been making payments of one and half times my monthly set mortgage to get it down to payoff in less than 20 years......but, that doesn't appear to have been a good idea, I should have been putting the money in my life ins. polices as looking at the next 13 years the rate of return on those will be higher than the equity return in my home. so basically I have been or will be punished to an extent becasue I was a responsible homeowner.....unreal.

there are TONS of folks sitting here just like me the responsible homeowner, ipso facto the gov. has not helped home ownership as a generational value for folks like me, they have totally fucked it.

I live on a lake. The appraisal on my house actually increased. I'm told the reason is they aren't making any more lakes.
 
"The communists had driven the National Socialist party to control the legislature.."


:lol:
read your history. learn something. I was just as surprised to know that the National Socialist party of Germany purged dissimilar forms of fascism (socialism/leninism/marxism) from the party to unite behind their particular brand).

Though I was not surprised to find all that mess in the same group vying for control. Similar minds and all.


your bluffing is pathetic.

i know my history.

i totally believe that you were surprised.
 

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