Fueri
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- Nov 16, 2015
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Say what you will about Donald Trump. The man is a successful business tycoon, everyone recognizes his name and he has made (and lost) fortunes through the years with his business acumen. He is a brash, plain-spoken, often bombastic speaker who doesn't care about what is politically correct. He is not beholden to either political party or any special interest aside from his own self interests. He certainly delivers enough caustic rhetoric for his enemies to feed on and they do... much to their chagrin, it generally tallies up to stronger poll numbers for him when they complain. But that's not the thing they fear most about Trump. None of it is.
The thing feared most about Trump from political strategists of every party, regardless of the candidate they may support, is that he is an anomaly. An unknown quantity. There is absolutely NO political history there. We simply do not know how many actual votes on ballots Trump can obtain. With any other candidate, there are some voting statistics and data to look at. You can analyze what went wrong or right in their campaign, find out how the voters felt about things or what influenced their vote... with Trump we have nothing.
Polls can be very unreliable and misleading. Most political analysts put more stock into where the money is at... who is best at fundraising? However, again with Trump, we simply have an unknown variable. He is funding his own campaign. So there is no voting data and no fundraising data. What Trump can ultimately do is unpredictable, even by the most astute political analyst.
His campaign appearances are off the charts in terms of numbers. No candidate in history has ever produced the kinds of numbers he is generating on a regular basis. Does this mean anything? We don't know. Could Trump bring something to the table that we simply cannot factor? This is the question on every political strategist's mind. We won't know until the votes start coming in and we can look at real numbers of real votes on real ballots. Until then, Trump is a giant question mark. This is what his adversaries fear the most... the great unknown.
Yep, I heard yesterday on liberal talking head radio that the phone polls are actually under representing his support.
Apparently this is true because a certain demographic, those with a college education, will not admit they will support him when asked by a human, however when the question is posed via a click through menu his support goes up by ~10%.
The assertion being that those people are embarrassed by their support and won't vocalize it, and yet do support him and therefore answer differently to the machine based poll.
I'll find the study if I can later....
ETA: pretty sure this was Tom Hartman. Heard it while rolling around on my lunch break...
Here it is:
Polls may actually underestimate Trump’s support, study finds