The Swing States 2012

[JakeStarkey]

Romney, for a number of reasons, could not have won in 08. He is much more viable now.

 

[sealybobo]

Romney, for a number of reasons, could not have won in 08. He is much more viable now.

Not really. No more viable than McCain. Oh, and I just read a Pew Poll that showed

59 percent of swing voters now favor a "rapid U.S. troop withdrawal." from Afganistan.

The survey defined swing voters as those who are either undecided between Romney and President Obama or may still change their minds.

Mitt Romney strongly criticized President Obama's support for a timetable to end the war. But those views are putting him at odds with an increasing chunk of the voters he will need to win the White House in November.

But I'm sure he will just flip flop and you will forgive him. Many won't. All this stuff is going to add up. Women don't agree with him on birth control, middle class people don't agree with him on collective bargaining or tax breaks to the rich, social security or medicare. How's he gonna overcome all this? Do people really trust this guy on the economy? I don't buy that. Republicans don't even trust him. This is a joke.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Romney, for a number of reasons, could not have won in 08. He is much more viable now.

Not really. No more viable than McCain. Oh, and I just read a Pew Poll that showed

59 percent of swing voters now favor a "rapid U.S. troop withdrawal." from Afganistan.

The survey defined swing voters as those who are either undecided between Romney and President Obama or may still change their minds.

Mitt Romney strongly criticized President Obama's support for a timetable to end the war. But those views are putting him at odds with an increasing chunk of the voters he will need to win the White House in November.

But I'm sure he will just flip flop and you will forgive him. Many won't. All this stuff is going to add up. Women don't agree with him on birth control, middle class people don't agree with him on collective bargaining or tax breaks to the rich, social security or medicare. How's he gonna overcome all this? Do people really trust this guy on the economy? I don't buy that. Republicans don't even trust him. This is a joke.

Just like a lib to misrepresent the facts. Romney didn't say he was against timetables. He advocated an internal timetable. He said you don't broadcast a date to the enemy.

 

[JoeB131]

It's not at all what the election was about. The media tried to make it about that unfortunately.

It was a valid consideration. Which is the GOP's fault for nominating a 72 year old to start with.

Yea? Was it the Republicans fault to nominate a 70-year-old Ronald Reagan?

The Republicans are at fault for nominating McCain who was weak; but not b/c of his age. That had nothing to do with it.

at the time, Reagan's age of 69 was a serious issue. But Reagan had the good sense to take George H. Bush as a running mate, someone who everyone concluded could run the country, worse came to worse. McCain picked someone who looked like she was slightly dopey.

And frankly, McCain was a vastly better candidate than Captain Magic Underpants....

 

[JoeB131]

Romney, for a number of reasons, could not have won in 08. He is much more viable now.

Actually, he still has all the same problems.

Still has a weird religion.

Still has a record of fucking over working people.

Still has a reputation of being a two-faced politician.

The only reason he's the nominee is that he wasn't facing candidates who were the caliber of Huckabee and McCain this time.

 

[JakeStarkey]

When atheist talks about weirdness in religions, the 98% of America who is not atheist does this:

 

[theHawk]

An election for President in the United States is not a national event. It is a collection of 51 separate elections. There is no way Romney is going to carry New York or California, and there is no way Obama is going to carry Texas or Mississippi. So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Whichever candidate wins more of these states will win the election.

Exactly, this is why all these national polls are total BS and don't mean a damned thing.

Its all about the swing states and how each candidate is polling there.

 

[JakeStarkey]

An election for President in the United States is not a national event. It is a collection of 51 separate elections. There is no way Romney is going to carry New York or California, and there is no way Obama is going to carry Texas or Mississippi. So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Whichever candidate wins more of these states will win the election.

Exactly, this is why all these national polls are total BS and don't mean a damned thing.

Its all about the swing states and how each candidate is polling there.

Not at all, Hawk. Unruffle your feathers and pay attention. National polls give overall national feelings and thoughts. People do look at them.

I agree that the local and state polls are more important

 

[nodoginnafight]

It's hard to come up with a winning formula for Romney that doesn't include Ohio. Most recent polling shows Obama up by 6 points there which is even stronger than his 4 point win in 2008.
What does he do to turn it around?

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

It's hard to come up with a winning formula for Romney that doesn't include Ohio. Most recent polling shows Obama up by 6 points there which is even stronger than his 4 point win in 2008.
What does he do to turn it around?

First off, I don't believe he's down by 6 points or will be down by 6 points. He will heavily campaign there though. He will need to galvanize the base; but I think its more than that. He will need to win independents and blue dog democrats. Ohio is a strong reflection of the country though. If he's pulling ahead in the national polls, expect him to pull ahead in Ohio too. He just needs to be on his game frankly.

 

[nodoginnafight]

It's hard to come up with a winning formula for Romney that doesn't include Ohio. Most recent polling shows Obama up by 6 points there which is even stronger than his 4 point win in 2008.
What does he do to turn it around?

First off, I don't believe he's down by 6 points or will be down by 6 points. He will heavily campaign there though. He will need to galvanize the base; but I think its more than that. He will need to win independents and blue dog democrats. Ohio is a strong reflection of the country though. If he's pulling ahead in the national polls, expect him to pull ahead in Ohio too. He just needs to be on his game frankly.

I don't watch national polls much. The state polls are far more valuable in terms of predicting a winner imho. I also disagree that Ohio is that strong a reflection of the country. It is certainly a strong reflection of a pretty large segment of the nation though.

But I have to wonder about the 6 points too. Obama only won by 4 in 2008 and I think most people expect that it will be closer this time around.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

It's hard to come up with a winning formula for Romney that doesn't include Ohio. Most recent polling shows Obama up by 6 points there which is even stronger than his 4 point win in 2008.
What does he do to turn it around?

First off, I don't believe he's down by 6 points or will be down by 6 points. He will heavily campaign there though. He will need to galvanize the base; but I think its more than that. He will need to win independents and blue dog democrats. Ohio is a strong reflection of the country though. If he's pulling ahead in the national polls, expect him to pull ahead in Ohio too. He just needs to be on his game frankly.

I don't watch national polls much. The state polls are far more valuable in terms of predicting a winner imho. I also disagree that Ohio is that strong a reflection of the country. It is certainly a strong reflection of a pretty large segment of the nation though.

But I have to wonder about the 6 points too. Obama only won by 4 in 2008 and I think most people expect that it will be closer this time around.

Well I mean that Ohio is a strong mix of town and country; urban, suburban, rural and farm; conservative and liberal. That's not to say that the libs are like Frisco libs so much or that a Cleveland business man is like the guy on Wall Street. However, Ohio is very much a microcosm of the nation.

And Obama won Ohio by only 4 points; less than his percentage in the nation. I do believe that if Romney is ahead in the national polling that it'll likely be reflected in Ohio. And he is ahead in the last two gallup polls whereas I don't know that the Ohio polls are that recent and would reflect his building momentum.

There's a lot that can happen in the next almost seven months. I think that Romney will do great if he does better than McCain did in the urban centers of Ohio. And frankly, it's hard to imagine McCain setting the bar that high. I don't think the everyday Ohioan was as excited about him in the wake of all the so-called financial collapses, so-called housing collapses and Iraq. And to say nothing of the fact that McCain was not much of a contrast to Obama. Compound that with Obama's failed policies and subversiveness and people should be excited about a guy who offers real hope and change.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The blue collar base in Ohio is critical, but so are women and latinos there. Romney needs to work hard and smart to keep this state that he must have in the Red column.

 

[JoeB131]

When atheist talks about weirdness in religions, the 98% of America who is not atheist does this:

Actually, atheists are about 12% of the population.


What percentage of the U.S. population are atheists? - Quora

Do you even bother to research facts before you spew?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Disputed % for sure. Of the 15% not religious believers in the country, perhaps a number totaling 2% of the population are atheist. Go check the authenticity of your source, JoeB, and get back to us.

 

[JoeB131]

Disputed % for sure. Of the 15% not religious believers in the country, perhaps a number totaling 2% of the population are atheist. Go check the authenticity of your source, JoeB, and get back to us.

why should I bother, that's actually a pretty consistant number.

Sorry, man, there are really folks smart enough not to believe in Sky Pixies.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Ummm . . . no, not really. Maybe 4 million of you loonies, weak heads, and spiritless cowards.

Darwin? Einstein? So many great minds. Then you. Let's all have a laugh.

 

[JoeB131]

Ummm . . . no, not really. Maybe 4 million of you loonies, weak heads, and spiritless cowards.

Darwin? Einstein? So many great minds. Then you. Let's all have a laugh.

ooooh, look, it spent all last night following me around... isn't he cute?

 

[JakeStarkey]

JoeB continues the stalking. So does koshergirl. Both very strange folks.