The Swing States 2012

[Zander]

An election for President in the United States is not a national event. It is a collection of 51 separate elections. There is no way Romney is going to carry New York or California, and there is no way Obama is going to carry Texas or Mississippi. So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Whichever candidate wins more of these states will win the election.

 

[Sherry]

This is a fun map to play around with...

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

 

[AquaAthena]

An election for President in the United States is not a national event. It is a collection of 51 separate elections. There is no way Romney is going to carry New York or California, and there is no way Obama is going to carry Texas or Mississippi. So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Whichever candidate wins more of these states will win the election.

And aren't "we" expecting to pick up about six or more Senate seats which would put the GOP in the majority....what a sweep...both Houses and the Presidency..... **fingers crossed**

 

[Mr. H.]

Ohio is definitely a swing state, especially on a Saturday night.

 

[Amelia]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0PIdWdw15U]rimshot - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Amelia]

An election for President in the United States is not a national event. It is a collection of 51 separate elections. There is no way Romney is going to carry New York or California, and there is no way Obama is going to carry Texas or Mississippi. So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Whichever candidate wins more of these states will win the election.

Wisconsin is completely up in the air. I wouldn't bet a penny on how we're going to end up by the end of our long long summer.

 

[Ed Spacer]

Let me tell you about florida.
i have been doing alot of traveling from the panhandle,the east coast,and down the center.
everywhere off 75 ,and the florida turnpike,10...
DEFEAT OBAMA IN 2012.
hes not going to have such an easy fight there.
Bookoo romney supporters.

 

[Ed Spacer]

Georgia,here,we are locked in,but everyone wants stupid gingrich,still....
except romneys got lotsa young people stirred up.
only atlanta may belong to obama.

 

[Avatar4321]

Id argue that all 57 states are swing states this year. at least, I would if I used Obama's math

 

[imbalance]

Let me tell you about florida.
i have been doing alot of traveling from the panhandle,the east coast,and down the center.
everywhere off 75 ,and the florida turnpike,10...
DEFEAT OBAMA IN 2012.
hes not going to have such an easy fight there.
Bookoo romney supporters.

Central/Northern/Panhandle Florida has always been mostly red, it's the Boca Jews along with the 2nd & 3rd generation Cuban-Americans and of course most urban precincts that can be counted on to vote blue.

What could be a decisive factor is whether Obama has in fact lost any of the Jewish vote, as well as what happens with the upper-class South American transplants that have been mass migrating to Florida these past four years.

 

[Ed Spacer]

Imbalance,correct me if i am wrong,but i was recently to ocala,and wildwood,and i didnt see hardly any obama supporters,even among hispanics.

 

[Ed Spacer]

Atlanta and dekalb county might be the only two out of this state that obama might have ground in.

 

[Ed Spacer]

If romney picks paul as veep choice,more swing,and blue states become red.
that would be the best.move romney could make.

 

[Ed Spacer]

I see possible nh,vt,and me going red,oh would be a cinch also.

 

[J.E.D]

Swing States Poll: A shift by women puts Obama in lead

In the fifth Swing States survey taken since last fall, Obama leads Republican front-runner Mitt Romney 51%-42% among registered voters just a month after the president had trailed him by two percentage points.
The biggest change came among women under 50. In mid-February, just under half of those voters supported Obama. Now more than six in 10 do while Romney's support among them has dropped by 14 points, to 30%. The president leads him 2-1 in this group.

 

[BreezeWood]

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House

Key States Obama Romney RCP Average

Ohio...... 48.3 - 39.7 - Obama +8.6
Florida... 47.0 - 43.5 - Obama +3.5
Virginia.. 47.3 - 43.3 - Obama +4.0

The three above would go a long way in determining the outcome ... far to early to be believe the current polling will be the same in early Fall.

 

[The Rabbi]

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House

Key States Obama Romney RCP Average

Ohio...... 48.3 - 39.7 - Obama +8.6
Florida... 47.0 - 43.5 - Obama +3.5
Virginia.. 47.3 - 43.3 - Obama +4.0

The three above would go a long way in determining the outcome ... far to early to be believe the current polling will be the same in early Fall.

That poll shows FL as basically a dead heat. VA close to that.
We havent started the campaign yet and Obama is barely squeaking by. I would be very scared if I were him.

 

[Missourian]

An election for President in the United States is not a national event. It is a collection of 51 separate elections. There is no way Romney is going to carry New York or California, and there is no way Obama is going to carry Texas or Mississippi. So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Whichever candidate wins more of these states will win the election.

Throw Missouri in there as well.

Obama, Romney tied in Missouri - Public Policy Polling​

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

So the campaigns will focus on winning the swing states. Here they are:

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Montana, New Jersey, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Missouri, Indiana and Oregon are also states that are in play or could be in play.

For Obama; he must protect states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Stealing Florida would be big, but not expected. In Wisconsin, union politics will be front and center and that could get interesting. North Carolina is a traditional red state that went blue in 08. How satisfied will they be with their choice? Will they revert? I believe Romney has a great shot in New Hampshire, but the margin would have to be razor thin for it to matter. That'd be crazy if it came down to that though.

For Romney; he will have an uphill fight frankly as he is currently down in swing state polls. I think he'll actually easily win Nevada. The unemployment there is the highest in the nation at 12.3 percent and there is a bit of an anti-Obama vibe there after perceived disses on Vegas. Plus there is a significant Mormon contingent in Nevada. A lot of people don't know it, but Vegas was founded by Mormons.

North Carolina has 9.9 percent unemployment and there 15 electoral votes would be huge as that would be a 30 vote swing.

Virginia is another state that voted Republican since 1972 until 2008. The State of Virginia had their own law suit against Obamacare. That type of local publicity could pay dividends.

And of course, unless neither candidate does splendid in the swing state department then we know it could be like the last 3 elections and simply come down to Ohio. The fear for Republicans is evangelicals not getting out the vote. Even if they do though, I think Romney will need to campaign vigorously to win that state. It is a good sign that the state did elect a conservative governor recently. Voter fraud could be an issue in Ohio and I believe that states like Ohio are why Democrats are against voter fraud laws. They are hoping to get their rig on.

I'll call it now though. If Romney wins Oregon; he wins it all. Yes Oregon is only 7 votes but they represent the dark purple states. If progressives aren't coming out in droves in a state like Oregon then that should spell trouble for Obama.

Here's what I see: if Romney can't pick off states like Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico; then he will have to win all three of Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia. And if one of those states is out of whack then a state like Iowa (only 6 votes) could come into play.

I pray that it's a landslide for Romney though and that Americans awaken to a sense of who we are and where we've been.

 

[Interpol]

10 million more women voted in the last general election over men.

John McCain took the male vote by just a smidge, but Obama beat him with the female vote by about 7 or 8 points.

At this moment, the election appears to be between the guy who is offering your wife a forced vaginal probe and a guy who is offering her a free health care perk.

It's a no-brainer, and it's why women are now supporting the President by about a 20 point margin, which is huger than huge.

Women are deciding general elections lately in America, and right now the moderate, fiscally conservative but socially liberal single women who live in the burbs look at what's been going on with all this birth control stuff and vaginal probes and they seriously don't like it.

Women care most about the economy and health care.

Men care most about the deficit.

But more women vote, so you have to get them on the two issues they care the most about, and that's a problem for Republicans this time around; they just can't seem to connect with single adult women, and they're making it hard on themselves by trying to do away with Planned Parenthood, where much of this voting block goes for their breast exams and other cancer screenings and such.

Florida should be tough for Obama especially with the new voter registration laws down there that make it illegal to sign people up to register to vote.

But as long as women live longer than men do and tend to be the bosses of their families when it comes to health care decisions and paper work and all that crap, there is every incentive for them to run back into the arms of Obama lately with the stuff that the Republicans have been doing which has caused the female vote to swing hard towards the President over the last month or so.

Right now I can see the Republicans picking FL, IN and NC back up, and possibly VA, but with Kasich and Snyder in OH and MI getting lousy ratings as Governors and with Romney essentially having no real advantage in his home state, I think those will stay with the Democrats.

At this point, I find that the Republican argument is a tricky one, because they need to win by saying, "Things are worse now than they were 4 years ago". But if the electorate sort of feels like the worst is behind them, it gives that argument a whole lot of trouble.

It all comes down to whether the average person out there who isn't a rabidly political person is thinking to themselves, "You know, it feels like we're turning the corner and into better days soon".

The Republicans, of course, think that things are much worse now than they were almost 4 years ago, and their job is to convince moderates like me that the President has brought us down.