The Stock Market Crash of 2010 Sept 24th - A day that will live in Infamy.

[Neubarth]

The Stock Market Crash of 2010 Sept 24th - A day that will live in Infamy. The reasons will be in those reports scheduled below for release to the public.

Economic Calendar: Financial Calendars - Yahoo! Finance

Sep 21 8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug
Sep 21 8:30 AM Building Permits Aug
Sep 21 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision 9/21
Sep 22 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/18
Sep 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/18
Sep 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/11
Sep 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Aug
Sep 23 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Aug
Sep 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Aug
Sep 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Aug
Sep 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug[/quote]

Though it may start before then, the 24th is the date most likely for the Stock Market Crash of 2010

 

[Neubarth]

See all the housing reports above. This Depression is all being driven by the housing collapse. The housing collapse is still not over. In fact, we have a long way to go. The continuing collapse will finally become apparent to all of those people who thought that we were in recovery.

Folks, there has been no recovery, just stagnation on a plateau and it about to collapse into the valley below. Are you ready? Are your investments safeguarded. Are you safeguarded. There is going to be tremendous violence in the months and years ahead.

 

[loosecannon]

maybe.

There great depression featured a triple dip and all it caused was World War II.

 

[Mr Natural]

You make enough predictions, and eventually one of them is bound to come true.

 

[Neubarth]

You make enough predictions, and eventually one of them is bound to come true.

Everytime in the past thirty years when I said something was going to happen is always has.

I have never been wrong.

 

[Charles_Main]

You make enough predictions, and eventually one of them is bound to come true.

Everytime in the past thirty years when I said something was going to happen is always has.

I have never been wrong.

We'll just take your word for that.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

If your believe in efficient markets theory, the news has already been priced in, and the fact that there are a lot of idiots who are betting short that particular day, means that it will probably be a day thousands of delusional dolts are obliged to buy and cover their shorts.

 

[rdean]

THIS TIME, THE SKY REALLY IS FALLING!

 

[william the wie]

Definitely possible but I tend to agree with Baruch M on this one. Plus the plunge protection team will be out in force for this one. However after November it will be obvious that the Ds will have extremely limited power in next year's gerrymander fest. Boards like this tend to ignore State Elections because the polling services do too. Come November 3, the probability of the Ds winning the house prior to 2024 or Obama winning a second term will look especially dim and no one will care enough to intervene in the markets and then a crash becomes extremely possible.

 

[Toro]

I hope so.

After being shaken, I reestablished my shorts today.

 

[Old Rocks]

If your believe in efficient markets theory, the news has already been priced in, and the fact that there are a lot of idiots who are betting short that particular day, means that it will probably be a day thousands of delusional dolts are obliged to buy and cover their shorts.

Probably have to change them, also.

 

[william the wie]

I hope so.

After being shaken, I reestablished my shorts today.

Yeah, I was really counting on establishing my loss limitation hedges for 10 and 11 this month. A flatline market is fine but more volatility reduces losses/increases profits for me.

 

[loosecannon]

Come November 3, the probability of the Ds winning the house prior to 2024 or Obama winning a second term will look especially dim and no one will care enough to intervene in the markets and then a crash becomes extremely possible.

?

 

[zzzz]

Did I hear the little shepherd boy calling wolf again?

 

[william the wie]

Come November 3, the probability of the Ds winning the house prior to 2024 or Obama winning a second term will look especially dim and no one will care enough to intervene in the markets and then a crash becomes extremely possible.

?

The market is staying up through a combination of dark pools and high frequency trading funded through bank holding companies. Since the Republicans hold the Fed responsible for the meltdown through their hamhanded handling of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers with more and more data accumulating to support that position and the Treasury is currently in Democratic hands a purge in 2013 is expected. So the people at the Fed and treasury are going to be preparing resumes rather than doing their jobs in 2011/12. Also exogenous shocks (economic speak for "I didn't do it") are coming down the pike as you pointed out in your debasement war thread so even people who are doing their job aren't going to be able to do much good either.

 

[loosecannon]

My mistake, WTW. I thought you were speaking about much broader markets than the stock exchanges. But looking back that is what Neubarth predicted in his OP as well.

I couldn't give a shit what the stock markets do. They hardly matter compared to the RE market, retail market, Bond markets etc.

My apology.

 

[loosecannon]

I hope so.

After being shaken, I reestablished my shorts today.

Just asking, but what are you shorting?

 

[william the wie]

My mistake, WTW. I thought you were speaking about much broader markets than the stock exchanges. But looking back that is what Neubarth predicted in his OP as well.

I couldn't give a shit what the stock markets do. They hardly matter compared to the RE market, retail market, Bond markets etc.

Quite true but feedback from the equities market is instantaneous and except for bonds the lowest transaction costs and is therefore a proxy for almost all markets.

My apology.

No problem but I suspect the problem is that you never learned how recently market measurements were founded.

A very quick history lesson, almost all of the founders of modern market measurements were still alive in 2000. In the equities market the major exceptions to this rule are Bachelier (?) who founded the whole theory in 1901, Benjamin Graham who served as a reserve member of the USMC band in WWI and Black of Black-Scholes who died of cancer at a young age.

Bonds have been around forever. The Consols of the UK which you can still buy are a consolidated issue of bonds dating back to the 1660s. There are some researchers on Duration theory (The weighted average return on fixed income investments is called Duration.) who are still alive but otherwise bond theory has been relatively fixed for a couple of centuries.

Modern retailing was developed by Sam Walton in the 1950s and is based on logistics theories developed in WWII by people like Milton Friedman who worked on optimal fragmentation design of AAA shells (flak).

Real Estate has only had a fairly dependable index for about 20 years.

Demographic spending theories only go back to the late 1980s.

Nobody has gone through the data enough to figure out what is going on in Retail and RE. The indices are much better today than ever before but that doesn't mean that they are good. I can't tell you squat about what happened yesterday in either of those markets because the available data is so limited in collections and published weekly or monthly with a definite lag. However I can find out what in the stock market did yesterday so I can report that and, within limits, prospects of what will happen next with say 90% confidence.

 

[Toro]

I hope so.

After being shaken, I reestablished my shorts today.

Just asking, but what are you shorting?

I'm not going to say, other than ETFs, because I have been trading very poorly lately, and after a losing a third of my year's profits this week, I am wondering if I am in the proper state of mind.

 

[loosecannon]

My mistake, WTW. I thought you were speaking about much broader markets than the stock exchanges. But looking back that is what Neubarth predicted in his OP as well.

I couldn't give a shit what the stock markets do. They hardly matter compared to the RE market, retail market, Bond markets etc.

Quite true but feedback from the equities market is instantaneous and except for bonds the lowest transaction costs and is therefore a proxy for almost all markets.

My apology.

No problem but I suspect the problem is that you never learned how recently market measurements were founded.

A very quick history lesson, almost all of the founders of modern market measurements were still alive in 2000. In the equities market the major exceptions to this rule are Bachelier (?) who founded the whole theory in 1901, Benjamin Graham who served as a reserve member of the USMC band in WWI and Black of Black-Scholes who died of cancer at a young age.

Bonds have been around forever. The Consols of the UK which you can still buy are a consolidated issue of bonds dating back to the 1660s. There are some researchers on Duration theory (The weighted average return on fixed income investments is called Duration.) who are still alive but otherwise bond theory has been relatively fixed for a couple of centuries.

Modern retailing was developed by Sam Walton in the 1950s and is based on logistics theories developed in WWII by people like Milton Friedman who worked on optimal fragmentation design of AAA shells (flak).

Real Estate has only had a fairly dependable index for about 20 years.

Demographic spending theories only go back to the late 1980s.

Nobody has gone through the data enough to figure out what is going on in Retail and RE. The indices are much better today than ever before but that doesn't mean that they are good. I can't tell you squat about what happened yesterday in either of those markets because the available data is so limited in collections and published weekly or monthly with a definite lag. However I can find out what in the stock market did yesterday so I can report that and, within limits, prospects of what will happen next with say 90% confidence.

I don't pay too much attention to stocks for two reasons.

The first you mentioned, computer traders who account for 60% of the volume, most of those are major banks investing discount window money, or their proxies.

The second is that tax laws since the 80's strongly encouraged a flood of retirement account money into the markets.

Sans those two drivers I seriously doubt that the real value of the DOW is above 6500. But that is just me and I haven't had a penny in the stock market since 1998.

I can accept that that market would be one that could be predicted within 90% accuracy, after all that is how Goldman Sachs made $100 million/day on the NYSE and Nasdaq in Q1 2009.

But I have a hard time rationalizing that that means much. IMO the stock markets are about as removed from reality as is possible.

Esp since the last year.5 has featured volatility manufactured from thin air.

I care about the goods and services economy and the economies of states, and the American economy. The Finance Economy, as Henry CK Liu defined it, is an abstract. Most of it should be illegal. It looks a LOT more like organized crime and even white collar crime than it does like free markets or capitalism. It is a dangerous risk to all that we rely on as life support.

But then again I have become damned cynical.