The Scientific Method For Dummies

[Madeline]

There are many reasons for the popularity of paranormal beliefs in the United States today, including:

* the irresponsibility of the mass media, who exploit the public taste for nonsense,

* the irrationality of the American world-view, which supports such unsupportable claims as life after death and the efficacy of the polygraph, (Whoops...I did think polygraphs had some validity) and

* the ineffectiveness of public education, which generally fails to teach students the essential skills of critical thinking.

As a college professor, I am especially concerned with this third problem. Most of the freshman and sophomore students in my classes simply do not know how to draw reasonable conclusions from the evidence. At most, they've been taught in high school what to think; few of them know how to think.

In an attempt to remedy this problem at my college, I've developed an elective course called “Anthropology and the Paranormal.” The course examines the complete range of paranormal beliefs in contemporary American culture, from precognition and psychokinesis to channeling and cryptozoology and everything between and beyond, including astrology, UFOs, and creationism.

I teach the students very little about anthropological theories and even less about anthropological terminology. Instead, I try to communicate the essence of the anthropological perspective, by teaching them, indirectly, what the scientific method is all about. I do so by teaching them how to evaluate evidence. I give them six simple rules to follow when considering any claim, and then show them how to apply those six rules to the examination of any paranormal claim.

The six rules of evidential reasoning are my own distillation and simplification of the scientific method.

To make it easier for students to remember these half-dozen guidelines, I've coined an acronym for them: Ignoring the vowels, the letters in the word ”FiLCHeRS” stand for the rules of Falsifiability, Logic, Comprehensiveness, Honesty, Replicability, and Sufficiency. Apply these six rules to the evidence offered for any claim, I tell my students, and no one will ever be able to sneak up on you and steal your belief.

You'll be filch-proof.

CSI | A Field Guide to Critical Thinking

Any thoughts, folks?

Me, I liked his "Falsifiability" tenet. It had not occurred to me before but seems true: any belief that is never going to be susceptable to being proven false has to be considered magical thinking or religious belief, not "fact".

 

[u2scram]

Critical Thinking mini-lessons- The Skeptic's Dictionary - Skepdic.com

Critical Thinking Mini-Lessons

a great introduction to objective thinking.

 

[antagon]

most importantly, scientific method relies on tying hypothetical conclusions to a basis in what is known. no random guesses allowed. there is a problem with the falsifiability tenet because science is challenged to hypothesize questions which cant provide direct falsification of of conclusions.

 

[Madeline]

most importantly, scientific method relies on tying hypothetical conclusions to a basis in what is known. no random guesses allowed. there is a problem with the falsifiability tenet because science is challenged to hypothesize questions which cant provide direct falsification of of conclusions.

I am not understanding you, antagon. Lemme see if I have this right.

A hypotethical that Mars once hosted plant life cannot now be proven, but might could someday and therefore passes the Falsifiability test.

A hypothetical that God exists can never be proven by scientific means, regardless of any advances we may make in technology, and must therefore be regarded as a "belief" rather than a "fact".

Have I got this?

 

[u2scram]

"science is challenged to hypothesize questions which cant provide direct falsification of of conclusions."

quantum physics has raised huge problems for scientists. problems they dont like for the reason that you state.

its possible to formulate all kinds of elegant mathematical possibilities without ever having much hope of coming up with an experiment that will actually prove, or disprove them.

 

[Madeline]

"science is challenged to hypothesize questions which cant provide direct falsification of of conclusions."

quantum physics has raised huge problems for scientists. problems they dont like for the reason that you state.

its possible to formulate all kinds of elegant mathematical possibilities without ever having much hope of coming up with an experiment that will actually prove, or disprove them.

I thought we could "see" the quanta....or will be able to, one day?

 

[antagon]

most importantly, scientific method relies on tying hypothetical conclusions to a basis in what is known. no random guesses allowed. there is a problem with the falsifiability tenet because science is challenged to hypothesize questions which cant provide direct falsification of of conclusions.

I am not understanding you, antagon. Lemme see if I have this right.

A hypotethical that Mars once hosted plant life cannot now be proven, but might could someday and therefore passes the Falsifiability test.

A hypothetical that God exists can never be proven by scientific means, regardless of any advances we may make in technology, and must therefore be regarded as a "belief" rather than a "fact".

Have I got this?

what you have said here aligns with the falsification model. i would say that both martians and God would be scientific/non-scientific hypotheses based on whether or not they are supported by what we currently know, whether or not it can be falsified.

if someone proposes that there is a god based on scientific evidence, they would have to argue how that evidence supports the conclusion that god best explains a phenomenon. this is why the intelligent design folks, for example, when they attempted to argue for the existence of a god or something like it through science, introduced stuff like 'irreducible complexity' to tie what we know about something to the conclusion that this designer was involved. it is broadly held in that case that there isn't a phenomenon such as irreducibly complex nature in the first place, and thus the basis of conclusions exploring it are not scientific.

with respect to the martians. one could not simply posit that they exist because in time it could be falsified or not. it, too, would have to be supported by evidence of life based on what we know about life.

 

[Madeline]

Thankies!

 

[antagon]

that says a bit about scientific method, but in becoming a scientist, you are subject to a year of scientific philosophy covering the method and the history of study as well as the current approaches. in the end, the method is deeper than what any summary can confine, certainly beyond the capacity of a word like demonstrable or falsifiable. it is flexible enough to address (hopefully all) physical issues, some of which are forensic, or requiring explanations which might not make repeatable experiments achievable or accessible.

 

[Madeline]

that says a bit about scientific method, but in becoming a scientist, you are subject to a year of scientific philosophy covering the method and the history of study as well as the current approaches. in the end, the method is deeper than what any summary can confine, certainly beyond the capacity of a word like demonstrable or falsifiable. it is flexible enough to address (hopefully all) physical issues, some of which are forensic, or requiring explanations which might not make repeatable experiments achievable or accessible.

I have no doubt, antagon...but presumably, this was written for lay people. We have so much muddled thinking here that there are two new palm readers doing a fire sale business in my neighborhood. They are competing against the third, which has been here as long as I have, and all three are advertising against each other.

Yet, every month, another real business in my neighbor is closed. We've lost two fast food restaurants, KFC and Arby's. I dun understand people who have no money for food spending their last $5 to be entertained by a good story teller.

This trend alarms me, and I had hoped we could discuss ways to reach the public with some basic training in reality-testing.

 

[California Girl]

I wonder if Maddie's newly discovered interest in science will encourage her to understand the difference between gossip and new data?



Nah.

 

[antagon]

I have no doubt, antagon...but presumably, this was written for lay people. We have so much muddled thinking here that there are two new palm readers doing a fire sale business in my neighborhood. They are competing against the third, which has been here as long as I have, and all three are advertising against each other.

Yet, every month, another real business in my neighbor is closed. We've lost two fast food restaurants, KFC and Arby's. I dun understand people who have no money for food spending their last $5 to be entertained by a good story teller.

This trend alarms me, and I had hoped we could discuss ways to reach the public with some basic training in reality-testing.

this ties into our girlscout convo in the sense that i think this sort of behavior is a side-effect, an externality, of having limited viable opportunities for investment (even investments of time and pocket change) and of limited demand for 'fruitful' economic participation like jobs and decent entrepreneurial ops based in traditional shit like frying chicken. cheap and obscure circus entertainment was vogue in the great depression. perhaps its a queer econ indicator.

 

[Madeline]

I have no doubt, antagon...but presumably, this was written for lay people. We have so much muddled thinking here that there are two new palm readers doing a fire sale business in my neighborhood. They are competing against the third, which has been here as long as I have, and all three are advertising against each other.

Yet, every month, another real business in my neighbor is closed. We've lost two fast food restaurants, KFC and Arby's. I dun understand people who have no money for food spending their last $5 to be entertained by a good story teller.

This trend alarms me, and I had hoped we could discuss ways to reach the public with some basic training in reality-testing.

this ties into our girlscout convo in the sense that i think this sort of behavior is a side-effect, an externality, of having limited viable opportunities for investment (even investments of time and pocket change) and of limited demand for 'fruitful' economic participation like jobs and decent entrepreneurial ops based in traditional shit like frying chicken. cheap and obscure circus entertainment was vogue in the great depression. perhaps its a queer econ indicator.

You write fabulous posts, anatagon. Each one makes me think.

Thankies!

 

[IanC]

* the irrationality of the American world-view, which supports such unsupportable claims as life after death and the efficacy of the polygraph, (Whoops...I did think polygraphs had some validity) and

I remember reading a book by a world renowned polygrapher who told a story about being in Italy for a conference when the local police asked him for help. A rich italian businessman's wife had disappeared and the cops couldn't find the body but he was stupid enough to let himself be hooked up to the machine. the polygrapher didn't know how to speak italian so he asked for photos of the businessman's villa. after silently presenting the photos and getting physiological results he was able to tell the police where to find the body and the businessman went to jail.

this polygraph expert believed that the methods routinely used are inadequate and can be manipulated. but that recognition of pertinent images can't be faked. interesting stuff.

 

[Madeline]

* the irrationality of the American world-view, which supports such unsupportable claims as life after death and the efficacy of the polygraph, (Whoops...I did think polygraphs had some validity) and

I remember reading a book by a world renowned polygrapher who told a story about being in Italy for a conference when the local police asked him for help. A rich italian businessman's wife had disappeared and the cops couldn't find the body but he was stupid enough to let himself be hooked up to the machine. the polygrapher didn't know how to speak italian so he asked for photos of the businessman's villa. after silently presenting the photos and getting physiological results he was able to tell the police where to find the body and the businessman went to jail.

this polygraph expert believed that the methods routinely used are inadequate and can be manipulated. but that recognition of pertinent images can't be faked. interesting stuff.

According to "Paula Zane On The Case", etc. US cops routinely rule viable suspects out via polygraghs....which is why I had assumed they had some usefulness.

BTW, any opinion on handwriting analysis (for personality, not forgery issues)?

 

[IanC]

* the irrationality of the American world-view, which supports such unsupportable claims as life after death and the efficacy of the polygraph, (Whoops...I did think polygraphs had some validity) and

I remember reading a book by a world renowned polygrapher who told a story about being in Italy for a conference when the local police asked him for help. A rich italian businessman's wife had disappeared and the cops couldn't find the body but he was stupid enough to let himself be hooked up to the machine. the polygrapher didn't know how to speak italian so he asked for photos of the businessman's villa. after silently presenting the photos and getting physiological results he was able to tell the police where to find the body and the businessman went to jail.

this polygraph expert believed that the methods routinely used are inadequate and can be manipulated. but that recognition of pertinent images can't be faked. interesting stuff.

According to "Paula Zane On The Case", etc. US cops routinely rule viable suspects out via polygraghs....which is why I had assumed they had some usefulness.

BTW, any opinion on handwriting analysis (for personality, not forgery issues)?

lol, I prefer palm readers!

actually there are probably vague generalities involved with handwriting but it is a better parlor game than pychological test

 

[Madeline]

I remember reading a book by a world renowned polygrapher who told a story about being in Italy for a conference when the local police asked him for help. A rich italian businessman's wife had disappeared and the cops couldn't find the body but he was stupid enough to let himself be hooked up to the machine. the polygrapher didn't know how to speak italian so he asked for photos of the businessman's villa. after silently presenting the photos and getting physiological results he was able to tell the police where to find the body and the businessman went to jail.

this polygraph expert believed that the methods routinely used are inadequate and can be manipulated. but that recognition of pertinent images can't be faked. interesting stuff.

According to "Paula Zane On The Case", etc. US cops routinely rule viable suspects out via polygraghs....which is why I had assumed they had some usefulness.

BTW, any opinion on handwriting analysis (for personality, not forgery issues)?

lol, I prefer palm readers!

actually there are probably vague generalities involved with handwriting but it is a better parlor game than pychological test

Then what's up with all the analysis of bank robbery notes and the ZODIAC's letters?

 

[editec]

Handwriting analysis to establish the author of the writing is sound enough.

I am somewhat dubious that one can determine the character of a person based on their handwriting, however.

An aside.

My father and I appear to have very much the same handwriting (even printing) techniques.

Given that he was taught one method handwriting in the late 1920s, and I an entirely different method of handwriting in the late 1950s, I cannot help but wonder how that happens.

Genetics is more important to that outcome, I guess, then training.

So clearly there is SOMETHING to handwriting analysis.

If nothing else it descibes the finer motor skills of the individual which are (apparently) very much a question of genetics.

 

[antagon]

i think polygraphs are scientific. there is a definite coincidence with the physical responses measured and the conclusions drawn. it is exploitable, however, and that makes it difficult to use as certain evidence. there is also the issue of malpractice on the part of the 'expert'. the idea that it can be exploited and that there are best practices which can be fumbled underscores the science-basis for me. you can screw up forensics and plant evidence too. i'd hate to be on the bad end of botched forensics or polygraph evidence. if it were polygraph though, i dont even think the fact could be mentioned in court.

does anyone know if polygraphs can entail reasonable suspicion?

 

[antagon]

Then what's up with all the analysis of bank robbery notes and the ZODIAC's letters?

i digress back to how a lack of real shit inspires weirder and weirder surrogates. the dalai lama would have been called in if the zodiac was still knocking them off.