The Sad reality during this DEPRESSION is that most people in this country are too

[Richard-H]

It certainly true that Americans have lived blissfully in a bubble of economic ignorance. A fact that the wealthiest have taken advantage of for years. If there is one benefit of this economic crisis, it is that Americans are finally becoming aware of the realities of finance and banking.

Economists however continue to be in la-la land. They have no more of a clue of the realities of economics than anyone else. They've all bought into a bunch of lies for years - knowing that if they don't they simply will not have a job. They shuffle the numbers any way that's convenient to get the answers that they want to get. Inflation, for example is been constantly increasing for the past 30 years. They simply decided that by excluding anything that has had a significant increase in cost from their calculations, they could report that there was little if any inflation.

They've all bought into the big lie.

What everyone knows is GREED. Nobody cares about the economy as a whole, only their individual ownership of currency and capital assets. Only now are people waking up to the reality that we are all economically interdependant. That everyone's individual financial welfare is entirely dependant of the welfare of the economy as a whole.

A year ago, did anyone care that tens of thousands of people were losing their homes do to these sub prime mortgage scams? NO. They only cared when the scams backfired on the financial industry which in turn cause thier own personal financial crisis.

Some freaking crop of financial and economic experts we have! They couldn't give a rat's ass about economics or finance.

Anyone that knows economics, knows that the economics of the world are obscene.

Until people wake up and force an extreme change in the the entire world economic order we will continue to be subject to a completely unjust, unstable, unrelaible and unpredictable economy, all for the benefit a tiny minority who make no contribution whatsoever.

 

[pinqy]

Economists however continue to be in la-la land. They have no more of a clue of the realities of economics than anyone else.

Actually, you're claiming that you have more of a clue. You're not an economist, yet you know more about it than those of us who have spent years studying it? How does that make sense?

They've all bought into a bunch of lies for years

Ok, what exactly....let's go one lie at a time...be very precise about what's wrong with definitions or theory (as if there was just one theory).

They shuffle the numbers any way that's convenient to get the answers that they want to get.

Why would they want any particular answers? And how do they all agree? Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Census Bureau...that's thousands of economists right there and they're all in collusion? Methodologies change to get better answers, not particular ones.

Inflation, for example is been constantly increasing for the past 30 years.

Well, yes, it has, as the numbers show. There was a slight decrease last Fall, early Winter, but otherwise inflation has mostly gone up. Who says otherwise?

They simply decided that by excluding anything that has had a significant increase in cost from their calculations, they could report that there was little if any inflation.

Who does that? How? Way too many people work on the numbers for BLS, and BEA has full access to the raw data as well, and that's in addition to the policy decisions already put down. Hundreds of people all in collusion ... hardly a simple decision. But please, explain the process exactly.

 

[neurosport]

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
Econbrowser: Shadowstats debunked

your PDF link doesn't work ...

 

[neurosport]

that reminds me about how Greenspan was saying there was no way for him to know if there was a bubble and if there was one nothing he could do about it

whatever you say !

Are you ever going to come up with an actual argument? I didn't think so.

Argument for what ? Do you even know what i said ? You put your words into my mouth then you're asking me to back up your words with arguments.

What i said is that indexes and indicators don't mean shit and i stand by that.

You retards have to understand that all of those indexes are invented precisely to dupe morons like you.

First you have to know what is going on then you can use numbers to express it. When there is no understanding numbers will only make it worse.

That's how bubbles form - when people who don't understand the principles look at numbers. " oh shit housing prices are rising - i better buy me a house ! "

 

[Douger]

Newbarth.. It's not a depression. It's a downfall. The movie is over and the credits are now running...........OUT.
Only a miracle can save this fallen empire.
Last time it took a world war to do it. Be afraid.

 

[editec]

And you still haven't shown that it's bullshit that the Money Supply figure used in the LEI is not adjusted for inflation.

there is no such thing as adjusted for inflation.

Well.. there can be if its done honestly

nobody can know what inflation really is.

They can if it is done correctly

i remember a few months back i was in MB dealership and they had an SL 550 convertible reduced in price from $112,000 to $58,000 ...

That would be deflationary.

by shuffling products in the CPI basket they can get any numbers they want to see for inflation

...

Actually that's a very valid complaint. One I keep making often when the issue of inflation comes

For this CPI basket to be meaningful it cannot be changed over time.

Which clearly happened a number of times, and always to the effect that it understated the real inflation thcompared to the previous infaltion rate using the previous methodology.

They keep doing this because Social Security and some government employees incomes and payments are pegged to the CPI.

If we were using the same CPI methodology consistently since 1991(?) I'm informed that social security payments would be about TWICE AS HIGH as they are now.

Clearly you can see why they've been messing with this CPI methology, then, right?

 

[pinqy]

For this CPI basket to be meaningful it cannot be changed over time.

Really? You're saying the CPI basket should reflect the buying patterns of say, 1972 instead of now? That would mean changes in prices of almost all modern electronics would not be reflected in the CPI and overall the weights and good included would reflect the spending patterns of 1972, not 2009. Why on Earth would you think that a good idea?

Which clearly happened a number of times, and always to the effect that it understated the real inflation thcompared to the previous infaltion rate using the previous methodology.

Why is it that people always insist that the higher rate is always the correct one? The thing is, we knew back in the 80's that inflation was overstated due to lack of change in the market basket.

People change what they buy and part of that is based on price changes. Let's look.
Say that Product A and Product B are similar, and cost the same, so people buy each one in about equal amounts. But then B starts to get more expensive relative to A. Well, more people will buy A instead. They're not worse off, and standard of living hasn't gone down at all, they'll just buy the product that isn't getting as expensive. If the weights and the basket didn't change, the CPI would still calculate things as if the same number of people were buying the same amount of B, even though that's not true. And inflation would be overstated because it's showing the greater price changes of B.

Or the reverse...say in the 70's and 80's when people stopped buying as many typewriters and started buying computers and word processers. Well, the latter two weren't in the basket for a long time after people were spending a significant amount of money on them, and typewriters were still in the CPI as if people were buying just as many as they did before. That understated inflation as typewriters were a lot cheaper.

They keep doing this because Social Security and some government employees incomes and payments are pegged to the CPI.

Partly...they don't want to overpay.

If we were using the same CPI methodology consistently since 1991(?) I'm informed that social security payments would be about TWICE AS HIGH as they are now.

Quite possibly, but that doesn't mean it would be correct. The methodology was changed for methodological, not political reasons.

Clearly you can see why they've been messing with this CPI methology, then, right?

Yes, it's to try to improve the quality and accuracy.

 

[midcan5]

It's just so wonderful that the narcissus in his underwear will now educate us. Thank you jebus for the internet.


How We Were Ruined & What We Can Do - The New York Review of Books
Wall Street on the Tundra | vanityfair.com
Archive: Charting the Road to Ruin | vanityfair.com

 

[midcan5]

....People change what they buy and part of that is based on price changes. Let's look. Say that Product A and Product B are similar, and cost the same, so people buy each one in about equal amounts. But then B starts to get more expensive relative to A. Well, more people will buy A instead. They're not worse off, and standard of living hasn't gone down at all, they'll just buy the product that isn't getting as expensive. If the weights and the basket didn't change, the CPI would still calculate things as if the same number of people were buying the same amount of B, even though that's not true. And inflation would be overstated because it's showing the greater price changes of B....

This neglects where A and B are made, surely Americans cannot compete with China or India in terms of cost. And if your neighbor doesn't do well chances are neither will you in the long term. This is a reason other nations control imports in ways we don't, we are still stuck in Samuelson's 3rd edition economics.

A CONTROVERSY RECONSIDERED

"Their economics were basically sound: the well-known principle of comparative advantage implies that trade in new kinds of products will bring overall improvements in productivity and well-being. But Mankiw and his defenders underestimated both the importance of offshoring and its disruptive effect on wealthy countries. Sometimes a quantitative change is so large that it brings about qualitative changes, as offshoring likely will. We have so far barely seen the tip of the offshoring iceberg, the eventual dimensions of which may be staggering."

Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution? | Foreign Affairs

 

[sealybobo]

I have a cousin who is broke as a joke. She was always a Democrat. But, her new husband is a Republican and now she's talking shit about how Obama is ruining the country. And she lost her home under Bush. Her new husband is broke as a joke too. But, because he has his own business, he thinks he's a republican. He's one of those guys who shows up to fix your flat when you have that kind of service with your new car. Not a tow truck driver, but a road side assistance guy.

Anyways, I can't help think that racism plays into their feelings about Obama.

But they are also swallowing all the socialism crap that the right keeps putting out there.

Now the Dems need to do a better job. They have a mandate and can't get anything done?

But they have the media working against them, the lobbyists, corporations and the GOP all working against them.

It is a lot easier being a Rebublican.

So no, 60% of the people don't know what's going on. 20% know and want to change what's going on but can't and 20% know whats going on and like things the way they are.

 

[pinqy]

This neglects where A and B are made, surely Americans cannot compete with China or India in terms of cost. And if your neighbor doesn't do well chances are neither will you in the long term.

But that's irrelevant for a Consumer Price Index (or a Producer Price Index). The object is simply to measure the price changes of what people buy. As far as that goes, country of manufacture is irrelevant. There is, however an Import Export Price Index that does look at price changes for imports and exports by type of goods and services and imports by country or regional group. That's the one to look at for effects from foreign products.

 

[pinqy]

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
Econbrowser: Shadowstats debunked

your PDF link doesn't work ...

It works now...the BLS site was down yesterday.

 

[neurosport]

For this CPI basket to be meaningful it cannot be changed over time.

Really? You're saying the CPI basket should reflect the buying patterns of say, 1972 instead of now? That would mean changes in prices of almost all modern electronics would not be reflected in the CPI and overall the weights and good included would reflect the spending patterns of 1972, not 2009. Why on Earth would you think that a good idea?

what are you as retarded as my father ?

what the fuck do electronics have to do with inflation ?

what the fuck does Moore's law have to do with monetary policy ?

electronics will always go down in price even as people get million dollar salaries and starve to death unable to afford food.

take this from somebody with degrees in electrical and computer engineering - if you want to use electronics for CPI you are going to have to use the cost of silicon PER UNIT OF WEIGHT.

so today your cell phone probably uses less silicone than your radio used to 30 years ago. but your radio didn't cost $300. therefore you have inflation.

of course if you count transistors you will think oh my god the prices are falling like a rock. that's because transistors are PRINTED just like money so both are falling in value.

what don't you add MOVIE TICKETS to the CPI basket ? but not tickets for whatever movie is showing TODAY but for a PARTICULAR MOVIE. for example tickets for the movie " Titanic ". When it came out people were willing to pay 8 bucks but today for some reason you can't sell the ticket printed years ago even for a penny. DEFLATION ! ! ! right ?

WRONG ...

 

[neurosport]

Say that Product A and Product B are similar, and cost the same, so people buy each one in about equal amounts. But then B starts to get more expensive relative to A. Well, more people will buy A instead. They're not worse off, and standard of living hasn't gone down at all, they'll just buy the product that isn't getting as expensive. If the weights and the basket didn't change, the CPI would still calculate things as if the same number of people were buying the same amount of B, even though that's not true. And inflation would be overstated because it's showing the greater price changes of B.

see a doctor immediately. get your head examined.

so lets say prices rise so much people can't afford to drive cars any more. now they use a bicycle to get to work just as in China.

lets see a car used to cost $20,000 now a bicycle is only $200 - WOW ! ! ! DEFLATION ! ! !

a bicycle is just as good. in fact its better ! doesn't pollute ...

i am scared to think of how prosperous we will be ( according to official inflation numbers ) once we can't afford bicycles any more ... after all walking is FREE ! ! !

 

[neurosport]

Yes, it's to try to improve the quality and accuracy.

you are a fucking idiot.

yes of course the government always lies to the people for our own good.

thats why they lied us into Iraq - because we didn't even know we wanted $4 gas, hundreds of billions wasted and thousands of Americans dead.

thats why the government had to lie to us for our own good.

politicians can't sleep at night thinking of how they could possibly help the people. invariably the way to help is to lie through their fucking teeth.

 

[pinqy]

what are you as retarded as my father ?

Ah...that would explain a lot about you.

what the fuck do electronics have to do with inflation ?

Electronic items are part of the CPI basket (and the PPI basket and the Import/Export price baskets). They have prices. Prices change. That's inflation.

what the fuck does Moore's law have to do with monetary policy ?

Nothing. That's why I didn't mention it.

electronics will always go down in price even as people get million dollar salaries and starve to death unable to afford food.

Mostly. A lot of that depends on how quality change is handled. But yes, that is the general trend. That's what I was saying...a CPI basket that didn't include the changes in electronic items available for sale.

take this from somebody with degrees in electrical and computer engineering - if you want to use electronics for CPI you are going to have to use the cost of silicon PER UNIT OF WEIGHT.

Why? That's not how the consumer pays for them. The consumer pays for a TV, or phone, or Ipod, or computer. They're not priced by silicon per unit of weight.

so today your cell phone probably uses less silicone than your radio used to 30 years ago. but your radio didn't cost $300. therefore you have inflation.

How much silicone is irrelvent. How much an item costs is. Whether that has anything at all to do with silicone doesn't matter. WHY prices change doesn't matter when calculating what the changes are.

of course if you count transistors you will think oh my god the prices are falling like a rock. that's because transistors are PRINTED just like money so both are falling in value.

What's counted is the price of the end item, and any differences in the item from the previous month.

what don't you add MOVIE TICKETS to the CPI basket ?

Movie tickets are in the CPI basket. I don't think it goes by particular movie, because movie theaters go by one price for all movies.

but not tickets for whatever movie is showing TODAY but for a PARTICULAR MOVIE. for example tickets for the movie " Titanic ". When it came out people were willing to pay 8 bucks but today for some reason you can't sell the ticket printed years ago even for a penny. DEFLATION ! ! ! right ?

No, because when an item is no longer available, it's either replaced by a similar item or dropped altogether. Talk to editec...that's who was claiming the basket should never change.

WRONG ...[/QUOTE]

 

[neurosport]

Talk to editec...that's who was claiming the basket should never change.

i think the basket should only consist of items like milk, flour, sugar, eggs etc in other words items that have been around for centuries and will stay around for centuries. and also items which remain the same overtime. eggs today are more or less the same eggs as 1000 years ago.

the same cannot be said about a computer.

it is not necessary to keep track of all or even most items because when the printing press breaks out of control inflation will eventually find its way to eggs.

i could design a basket of no more than maybe 10 goods that would never have to be changed ( at least not in our lifetimes ) and would work perfectly. it would include items like kilowatt hour of electricity.

by using an organ known as a brain the system could be made simple and effective. however what you can't understand is the system is DESIGNED TO BE INEFFECTIVE which is why it is made complex.

 

[Neubarth]

Say that Product A and Product B are similar, and cost the same, so people buy each one in about equal amounts. But then B starts to get more expensive relative to A. Well, more people will buy A instead. They're not worse off, and standard of living hasn't gone down at all, they'll just buy the product that isn't getting as expensive. If the weights and the basket didn't change, the CPI would still calculate things as if the same number of people were buying the same amount of B, even though that's not true. And inflation would be overstated because it's showing the greater price changes of B.

see a doctor immediately. get your head examined.

so lets say prices rise so much people can't afford to drive cars any more. now they use a bicycle to get to work just as in China.

lets see a car used to cost $20,000 now a bicycle is only $200 - WOW ! ! ! DEFLATION ! ! !

a bicycle is just as good. in fact its better ! doesn't pollute ...

i am scared to think of how prosperous we will be ( according to official inflation numbers ) once we can't afford bicycles any more ... after all walking is FREE ! ! !

And Neuro, Walking is Healthy. (Provided you don't get run over by a wheeled vehicle.)

 

[Toro]

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
Econbrowser: Shadowstats debunked

your PDF link doesn't work ...

Worked for me.