The Sad reality during this DEPRESSION is that most people in this country are too

Neubarth

At the Ballpark July 30th
Nov 8, 2008
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The Sad reality during this DEPRESSION is that most people in this country are too stupid to understand the reality of the economy.

Most people can not tell you what GDP is.
Most do not know how many are unemployed.
Most don't know how many apply for unemployment compensation every week.
Most do not know what the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is.
I guess it is good to live in Ignorant Bliss as long as you do not lose your job or your pension.

Still I will put a definition on this string at least once a week for your benefit.

Eventually people on this board will learn a little about the economy and will be able to take advantage of economic changes to make money for retirement, instead of lose all your saved money just before retirement.


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The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is an outstanding tool to predict recessions. This index is reported monthly and is made up of economic components that can reflect upcoming changes in the overall economy.

The LEI is a weighted average of 10 components. They can be split into financial variables, survey variables, and economic variables. This distinction is important, especially during the current cycle .... That’s because the current cycle is the result of a huge commercial and residential real estate bubble.

Financial history teaches us that monetary policy loses a lot of its effectiveness when a bubble bursts. So it makes a lot of sense to have a closer look at the LEI’s components.

The number of new building permits issued is just one of the economic variables included in the LEI.

Financial and public opinion survey variables were fully responsible for the positive LEI during the last two months. That is right, the money the Fed essentially gave to the banks is part of the index. It is referred to as the growth of money (real or otherwise).

Another factor is the rise (or fall) in the stock market.
Another factor is interest rate spreads. an increasing spread is considered to be a positive.

And then (get This!) the gullible public that knows little about the economy is surveyed to determine another large part of the LEI.

Right now, most of the gullible public believes that the economy is in recovery because they believe the boldly deceptive economic reports of the Obama administration. Amazing!

There are five actual economic variables that made no positive contributions at all to the last LEI!

(1.)Average hours worked,
(2.)Jobless claims,
(3.)Real consumer goods orders,
(4.)Real core capital goods orders, and
(5.)Building permits

With that in mind, in light of the current economic propaganda, the LEI is not accurate in predicting the end of a recession, but can point toward the beginning of one. Though the Obama administration loudly ballyhooed the last LEI, he had almost full control over the outcome and thus the LEI is tarnished.
 
Ok, let's look at the latest Index of Leading indicators
Net contributions to the LEI in May 2009
Average work week, production workers, mfg. (hours) -0.13
Average weekly initial claims, state unemployment insurance (thousands) -0.04
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials (mil. 1982 dol.) -0.01*
Index of supplier deliveries --vendor performance (percent) 0.33
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods (mil. 1982 dol.) 0.02*
Building permits (thous.) 0.11
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 0.24
Money supply, M2 (bil. chn. 2000 dol.) 0.24*
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds 0.31
Index of consumer expectations (c) (1966:1=100) 0.18
* Imputed data
Leading Index Percent change from preceding month: 1.2
So for the second month in a row, the index has gone up. The Coincident and Laggin indexes are still in decline, as expected, showing the recession hasn't ended yet, but a rise in the Leading Indicators is a positive sign that it could end soon.
 
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is an outstanding tool to predict recessions. ... in light of the current economic propaganda, the LEI is not accurate in predicting the end of a recession, but can point toward the beginning of one. Though the Obama administration loudly ballyhooed the last LEI, he had almost full control over the outcome and thus the LEI is tarnished.
:confused:
 
So for the second month in a row, the index has gone up. The Coincident and Laggin indexes are still in decline, as expected, showing the recession hasn't ended yet, but a rise in the Leading Indicators is a positive sign that it could end soon.

Yeah, probably. Maybe in Q4 or Q1 2010.
 
ok this LEI is crap !

if anything it just shows that inflation is finally just around the corner.


Care to explain, or just trolling again?

mostly trolling. however if it gauges things like MONEY and PUBLIC OPINION then it doesn't gauge REAL economy but paper economy ...

and according to Toro when paper economy picks up that may be accompanied by inflation ...
 
mostly trolling. however if it gauges things like MONEY and PUBLIC OPINION then it doesn't gauge REAL economy but paper economy ...

and according to Toro when paper economy picks up that may be accompanied by inflation ...
The Money Supply figure in the LEI is adjusted for inflation, so it's not "paper economy" but ability to buy goods and services. And Consumer Confidence is "real economy" because it's a guage of what people will do. When people are not confident, they spend less, save more and that helps contract the economy. When people are more confident, they'll spend more, thus expanding the economy...it's self-fulfilling prophecy, and therefore an important indicator, even if it is the hardest to quantify.
 
mostly trolling. however if it gauges things like MONEY and PUBLIC OPINION then it doesn't gauge REAL economy but paper economy ...

and according to Toro when paper economy picks up that may be accompanied by inflation ...
The Money Supply figure in the LEI is adjusted for inflation, so it's not "paper economy" but ability to buy goods and services. And Consumer Confidence is "real economy" because it's a guage of what people will do. When people are not confident, they spend less, save more and that helps contract the economy. When people are more confident, they'll spend more, thus expanding the economy...it's self-fulfilling prophecy, and therefore an important indicator, even if it is the hardest to quantify.

bull

shit
 
The Sad reality during this DEPRESSION is that most people in this country are too stupid to understand the reality of the economy.

Most people can not tell you what GDP is.
Most do not know how many are unemployed.
Most don't know how many apply for unemployment compensation every week.
Most do not know what the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is.
I guess it is good to live in Ignorant Bliss as long as you do not lose your job or your pension.

Still I will put a definition on this string at least once a week for your benefit.

Eventually people on this board will learn a little about the economy and will be able to take advantage of economic changes to make money for retirement, instead of lose all your saved money just before retirement.


----------------------------------------------------------​-------------
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is an outstanding tool to predict recessions. This index is reported monthly and is made up of economic components that can reflect upcoming changes in the overall economy.

The LEI is a weighted average of 10 components. They can be split into financial variables, survey variables, and economic variables. This distinction is important, especially during the current cycle .... That’s because the current cycle is the result of a huge commercial and residential real estate bubble.

Financial history teaches us that monetary policy loses a lot of its effectiveness when a bubble bursts. So it makes a lot of sense to have a closer look at the LEI’s components.

The number of new building permits issued is just one of the economic variables included in the LEI.

Financial and public opinion survey variables were fully responsible for the positive LEI during the last two months. That is right, the money the Fed essentially gave to the banks is part of the index. It is referred to as the growth of money (real or otherwise).

Another factor is the rise (or fall) in the stock market.
Another factor is interest rate spreads. an increasing spread is considered to be a positive.

And then (get This!) the gullible public that knows little about the economy is surveyed to determine another large part of the LEI.

Right now, most of the gullible public believes that the economy is in recovery because they believe the boldly deceptive economic reports of the Obama administration. Amazing!

There are five actual economic variables that made no positive contributions at all to the last LEI!

(1.)Average hours worked,
(2.)Jobless claims,
(3.)Real consumer goods orders,
(4.)Real core capital goods orders, and
(5.)Building permits

With that in mind, in light of the current economic propaganda, the LEI is not accurate in predicting the end of a recession, but can point toward the beginning of one. Though the Obama administration loudly ballyhooed the last LEI, he had almost full control over the outcome and thus the LEI is tarnished.

You forgot your pants. Usually its a good idea to forgo the socks too when you do that. For Gods sake, put on a shirt.
 
mostly trolling. however if it gauges things like MONEY and PUBLIC OPINION then it doesn't gauge REAL economy but paper economy ...

and according to Toro when paper economy picks up that may be accompanied by inflation ...
The Money Supply figure in the LEI is adjusted for inflation, so it's not "paper economy" but ability to buy goods and services. And Consumer Confidence is "real economy" because it's a guage of what people will do. When people are not confident, they spend less, save more and that helps contract the economy. When people are more confident, they'll spend more, thus expanding the economy...it's self-fulfilling prophecy, and therefore an important indicator, even if it is the hardest to quantify.

bull

shit

It's bullshit that the Money Supply figure is adjusted for inflation? No, that's a fact. As for Consumer confidence, I'd be happy to submit your name for the Nobel Prize if you've managed to prove decades of Economic Research to be wrong.
 
I'd be happy to submit your name for the Nobel Prize if you've managed to prove decades of Economic Research to be wrong.

HAHAHAHA ! ! !

after all that went down you STILL want proof that decades of YOUR economic research aren't worth jack shit ?

lay off that Keynesian Kool Aid
 
I'd be happy to submit your name for the Nobel Prize if you've managed to prove decades of Economic Research to be wrong.

HAHAHAHA ! ! !

after all that went down you STILL want proof that decades of YOUR economic research aren't worth jack shit ?

lay off that Keynesian Kool Aid

All that went down had fuck all to do with whether or not Consumer Confidence is useful as an indicator. You said that was bullshit...yet you don't have any actual argument just insults. And the always fun tactic of completely changing the topic to avoid any responsibility for what you've said.

And you still haven't shown that it's bullshit that the Money Supply figure used in the LEI is not adjusted for inflation.
 
And you still haven't shown that it's bullshit that the Money Supply figure used in the LEI is not adjusted for inflation.

there is no such thing as adjusted for inflation.

nobody can know what inflation really is.

i remember a few months back i was in MB dealership and they had an SL 550 convertible reduced in price from $112,000 to $58,000 ...

by shuffling products in the CPI basket they can get any numbers they want to see for inflation ...
 
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And you still haven't shown that it's bullshit that the Money Supply figure used in the LEI is not adjusted for inflation.

there is no such thing as adjusted for inflation.
Again, submit your work. It's kind of a fact that prices change, and that we can measure price change. While there are arguments about methodology, nobody, besides you, argues that it can't be done at all.

nobody can know what inflation really is.
Because there's no such thing as "really is" when you're dealing with concepts. And you certainly can know what it really is in relation to whatever definition you're using.

i remember a few months back i was in MB dealership and they had an SL 550 convertible reduced in price from $112,000 to $58,000 ...
And? I'd like to believe you have a point.

by shuffling products in the CPI basket they can get any numbers they want to see for inflation ...
Who is "they?" And why would "they" want to? There are no politicians involved in the CPI. And while it seems there have been attempts by politicians to influence the CPI (offering more funding for "adjustments), it hasn't worked (and couldn't anyway).

Shuffling products in the basket outside the periodic adjustments would be very difficult to do because there are too many people involved in the process. No one could know how to shuffle the basket before assigning collection, then the individual analysts couldn't do it because they only get a small part of the data and wouldn't know how to shuffle (and their work is double checked by supervisors) Then the indexes for the products in the local areas are aggregated (and reviewed by others), then the area indexes are aggregated to the National level (and again reviewed by others), and then the BEA gets most of the data anyway to use for the PCE so one of their analysts would notice something strange....there's just no point in the process where anyone could have enough info to know how to shuffle anything and there's way too many people looking and reviewing it all.
 
Shuffling products in the basket outside the periodic adjustments would be very difficult to do because there are too many people involved in the process. No one could know how to shuffle the basket before assigning collection, then the individual analysts couldn't do it because they only get a small part of the data and wouldn't know how to shuffle (and their work is double checked by supervisors) Then the indexes for the products in the local areas are aggregated (and reviewed by others), then the area indexes are aggregated to the National level (and again reviewed by others), and then the BEA gets most of the data anyway to use for the PCE so one of their analysts would notice something strange....there's just no point in the process where anyone could have enough info to know how to shuffle anything and there's way too many people looking and reviewing it all.

that reminds me about how Greenspan was saying there was no way for him to know if there was a bubble and if there was one nothing he could do about it

whatever you say !
 
And you still haven't shown that it's bullshit that the Money Supply figure used in the LEI is not adjusted for inflation.

there is no such thing as adjusted for inflation.

nobody can know what inflation really is.

i remember a few months back i was in MB dealership and they had an SL 550 convertible reduced in price from $112,000 to $58,000 ...

by shuffling products in the CPI basket they can get any numbers they want to see for inflation ...

Dude, you are so far over your head.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb.html
 
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