The Right is a little Overconfident

Discussion in 'Politics' started by IM2, Aug 20, 2019.

  1. IM2
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    IM2 Platinum Member

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    [​IMG]

    The Trump supporters are counting all kinds of unhatched eggs. Trump did not win the popular vote in 2016. He will not in 2020. Hillary Clinton will not be his opponent. He will not be an outsider. He has a record now, and despite the finest delusions of the cult members here, that record is abysmal.

    With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election
    by Rachel Bitecofer

    In July of 2018, my innovative forecasting model raised eyebrows by predicting some four months before the midterm election that Democrats would pick up 42 seats in the House of Representatives. In hindsight, that may not seem such a bold prediction, but when my forecast was released, election Twitter was still having a robust debate as to whether the Blue Wave would be large enough for Democrats to pick up the 23 seats they needed to take control of the House of Representatives and return the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi.

    Based on its 2018 performance, my model, and the theory that structures it, seem well poised to tackle the 2020 presidential election – 16 months out. I’ll serve up that result below, but first let’s set the table by reviewing my model’s 2018 forecasting success.

    Not only did I predict that they would gain nearly double the seats they needed, but I also identified a specific list of Republican seats Democrats would flip, including some, such as Virginia CD7, that were listed as “Lean Republican” by the majority of race raters at the time. At a time when other analysts coded even the most competitive House races for Democrats as Lean or Tilt Democrat, I identified 13 Republican-held districts as “Will Flips,” 12 as “Likely to Flip,” and 6 as “Lean Democrat.” I also identified a large list of “Toss Ups,” from which I would later identify the remaining “flippers.” In addition, I identified some “long-shot toss-up” districts that could be viable flips under some turnout scenarios. Of the original 25 districts I identified as definitely or highly likely to flip, all but one, Colorado CD3, did so, possibly because the party failed to invest in their nominee there.

    With 16 Months to go, Negative Partisanship Predicts the 2020 Presidential Election - Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy - Christopher Newport University
     
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  2. WillHaftawaite
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    WillHaftawaite USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Out of curiosity, which candidate do you think will get the nomination?

    and why do you believe any of them could beat Trump?

    (and, to my knowledge, the EC still counts more than the Popular vote)
     
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  3. TheGreatSatan
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    TheGreatSatan Gold Member

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    Elizabeth Warren = Hillary Clinton 2.0

    Creepy uncle Joe is an old white guy and Democrats hate old white guys

    Everyone else they got is even worse.

    I'm very confident trump will win. Democrats seem to care more about needy homeless foreign nationals than they do needy homeless Americans in tent cities all around blue areas. California has 1 in 4 homeless people in America and Democrats want to fill it with more.
     
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  4. LeftofLeft
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    LeftofLeft Gold Member

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    Biden has the best shot. Everyone else is too radical, too corrupt. Remember, suburban whites are the swing voters they can get behind Biden.
     
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  5. okfine
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    okfine VIP Member

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    The 2020 Black, Hispanic, and Asian voter turnout will be bigger than anticipated.

    An early look at the 2020 electorate
     
  6. Deplorable Yankee
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    Deplorable Yankee Gold Member

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    Biden is their best shot with white swing voters
    Biden small web donations have collapsed to almost zero

    yep feeling a lil confident at this early stage
     
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  7. TheGreatSatan
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    TheGreatSatan Gold Member

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    I really hope creepy uncle Joe is the nominee. He will be easy to beat. Biden admits Democrats don't respect borders.

    Raise your hand if you don't respect America's borders and want Americans to pay for the healthcare and welfare of any foreign national that makes it here...
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. lennypartiv
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    lennypartiv Gold Member

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    Voter ID laws are needed now more than ever.
     
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  9. lennypartiv
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    lennypartiv Gold Member

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    I'm hoping the Dems nominate Pocahontas.
     
  10. IM2
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    IM2 Platinum Member

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    I can't call it right now and IMO they all can beat Trump.

    Because they actually have plans and know how to operate on the world stage.

    Trump has been a disaster. We have had 10 consecutive years of growth. Trump has been in office 2.5. The economy was growing for 7.5 years before Trump took office, he lies about how he created this economy and you guys sucked it on up and want to give him a second term. Every democrat on that stage would provide a better economic situation than the one we are in now.

    Trump won on a fluke that has happened only 5 times. Don't expect that to happen in 2020.
     
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