The Real Unemployment Rate

[hvactec]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

 

[Wiseacre]

To me, one of the more important statistics that indicate where we are is the labor force participation rate. In Jan 09 it was 65.7, in April 12 it was 63.6. It means there's a whole of fewer people working today relative to the population. People are going on disability if they can find a way to do it, and our UE payments are through the roof. And the UE rate for young people under 25 is outragious, particularly for minorities.

You can say that Obama inherited a bad situation, and you'd be right IMHO. But the job he and the Dems have done since then has not been very good, we should've rebounded a lot sooner and a lot higher than we have IMHO. Even now all they talk about is fairness rather than effectiveness. News flash: higher taxes, bigger gov't, and more income redistribution may lead to more fairness, but it doesn't lead to more economic growth and more jobs.

 

[brudder]

Lies, all lies, Joe Biden told us we were in the summer of recovery in 2009, and he wouldn't lie to us!!!

 

[Middleoftheroad]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

I like how you quote Mark Twain about lies, then go on to lie yourself, particularly about statistics. Counting those that choose not to work and don't need to as unemployed is blatantly false. Your 41.6% number includes, all college students who don't need to work, all mothers who choose not to work, all rich people who don't need to work and choose not too, everyone that retired early, and everyone who is really disabled.

But hey, ya know, we need to tell all those mothers out there that they can't stay home and take care of their kids. Its their civic duty to get off their lazy asses and get a job. That's what your saying right?

 

[Flopper]

It's not important which unemployment rate you quote because they track each other. What is important is consistency. When the country was recovering from 2001 recession, Republicans would quote U3, the primary measure of unemployment because it indicates lower unemployment than the other measures. After 2007 recession they quote U6, which includes hardcore unemployment and hidden unemployment, because it's always higher. It's one of the oldest tricks in book.

 

[boedicca]

Shadow Stats is a far better source of UE stats than is the BLS. The "real" unemployment rate is over 22%.

Alternate Unemployment Charts

 

[Rozman]

Maybe one day the Obama administration will
start to tell the truth about how things really are
with the economy.Maybe tell us the real number
of people out of work.

Nah....there is an election coming up.

 

[Wiseacre]

Maybe one day the Obama administration will
start to tell the truth about how things really are
with the economy.Maybe tell us the real number
of people out of work.

Nah....there is an election coming up.

Maybe pigs will fly too. That's the day when I come to Jesus.

 

[pinqy]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

Ok, let's break things down. First, for labor force statistics, we're talking about the Adult Civilian Non-Institutional Population. That means we first exclude those groups that have barriers to entry/exit and work....those under 16, those in prison, those in institutions (mental institutes, nursing homes, etc) and the military.

That gives us an Adult Civilian Non-Institutional Population of 242,784,000 for April, 2012.

Of those, 141,865,000 worked the week of April 8-14 (employed), 12,500,000 did not work but could have accepted a job April 6-14 and did something to get a job March 18-Apr 14.

That leaves 88,419,000 who did not work, and either did not look for work or could not have accepted a job. Source: Table A-3

Let's look further at the Not in the Labor Force. (Table A-38)
82,551,000 said they did NOT want a job, 6,328,000 said they did, BUT....3,285,000 hadn't tried to find work in over a year.

3,042,000 had looked in the last year but not last 4 weeks, though 679,000 said they could not take a job if offered.

That leaves 2,363,000 "Marginally Attached," people who aren't currently trying to get a job, but likely will sometime. 968,000 "gave up" saying they think they wouldn't be hired...reasons include belief in discrimination, lack of skills/training. The rest are for personal reasons that have nothing to do with the Labor Market.

So who exactly of those should be considered objectively unemployed?

 

[pinqy]

Shadow Stats is a far better source of UE stats than is the BLS. The "real" unemployment rate is over 22%.

Alternate Unemployment Charts

We can actually test some things here. Mr. Williams claims that he is taking the U-6 measurement and adding in people who would be classified as Discouraged except that they haven't looked for work in over a year and adding them, and only them, in raises the UE rate to 22.3% for April. He doesn't do his own collection and relies entirely on BLS data.

So...our terms:
Unemployed: wants to work, available to work, actively looked for work previous 4 weeks.
Labor Force: Employed + Unemployed
Marginally Attached (includes Discouraged): wants to work, available to work, actively looked in previous 12 months but not previous 4 weeks. Discouraged stop looking due to the specific reason of believing they'd be unsuccessful.
Part Time for Economic Reasons: wants to and can work 35+ hours but worked < 35 hours due to slack business or couldn't find full time work.

Unemployed (U) = 12,500,000
Labor Force (L) = 154,365,000
Marginally Attached (M) = 2,363,000 (968,000 Discouraged)
Part Time for Economic Reasons (P) = 7,853,000
All data can be found at www.bls.gov/new.release/empsit.toc.htm and I'm using seasonally adjusted except for Marginally Attached.

So the U-6 is (U+M+P)/(L+M) = (12,500,000+2,363,000+7,853,000)/(154,365,000+2363,000) = 22,716,000/156,728,000 = 14.5%

Now we add in X, Mr Williams' claimed Discouraged over 1 year:
(22,716,000+X)/(156,728,000+X) = 0.223
Solve for X and we get 15,746,000 as the number of people he's adding in. He's claiming there are 15,746,000 people who want to work, are available to work, but quit looking over a year ago because they don't believe they'll find work.

hmmmm one problem. Looking at Tabke A-1 we see that there are only 6,366,000 people not already counted as Unemployed who say they want to work. Subtracting the Marginally Attached from that category, we have him adding 11,743,000 people more than those who say they want to work. How does that work? 11.7 million people who say they don't want to work but really do and quit searching due to discouragement? Seriously?

You'll note of course that Williams doesn't say where he gets his data from except from BLS, and he doesn't really explain his methodoloy. His math doesn't work.

 

[itfitzme]

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

What did Mark Twain write? Oh, yeah, fiction. Fiction is made up stories. Fiction is, basically, a bunch of lies for the purpose of entertainment.

Starting out quoting someone who told made up stories for a living doesn't give much weight. Nice try at a rhetorical device though.

People use language to lie, so all use of language must be a lie. People have used the Bible to excuse atrocities, so the Bible must be evil. Enron faked it's accounting therefore all accountants are liars. Some Catholic priests have been convicted of molesting children therefore, all Catholic priests are pedophiles. Some automobile drives have run red lights there fore all automobile drivers are unsafe.

Statistics, like accounting, is simply counting stuff. I suppose that, fundamentally, one...two...three...four...five...six is a lie.

 

[GHook93]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

Well stated, but it will be denied by the left (until Romney wins and then they will point to the high not in the labor force number). There are true non-labor force participates, like the LEGALLY disabled, the house wife, welfare receptient (even though they are supposed to be looking), retiree, but even taking them out the TRUE unemployment rate could in the 20%s. Add in under-employment and we have a crisis!

 

[pinqy]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

Well stated, but it will be denied by the left (until Romney wins and then they will point to the high not in the labor force number). There are true non-labor force participates, like the LEGALLY disabled, the house wife, welfare receptient (even though they are supposed to be looking), retiree, but even taking them out the TRUE unemployment rate could in the 20%s.

Please show all work. I gave the breakdown for Not in the Labor Force above, and even if you add in everyone who says they want to work, the rate would only go up to 11.7%. And if you look at the breakdown of those who say they want a job (51.9% haven't looked in over a year, 10.7% have looked in the last year but couldn't accept a job if offered, 22% have looked in the last year, could take a job now, but stopped looking for personal, non labor market, reasons) there's no real methodological reason to consider them Unemployed (equivalent to people trying and failing to find work).

Add in under-employment and we have a crisis!

Underemployment is hard to define. You can't accurately measure people over-qualified for a job (someone with a BS in engineering waiting tables is probably underemployed unless s/he is working on a Masters, while a Fine Arts major waiting tables is probably not underemployed). The closest that can be done is "Part time for Economic Reasons" (people working part time when they want to and could work full time), but over half of that is people who have had their hours cut rather than can't find full time work. If/when things improve, those with cut hours should get their hours back.

And even then, adding in everyone who says they want a job and part time for economic reasons, that rate would be 16.6%...still way under 20%. You'd have to do some very suspicious math and counting, like shadowstats does, to get over 20%

 

[Douger]

Lies, all lies, Joe Biden told us we were in the summer of recovery in 2009, and he wouldn't lie to us!!!

His brother Frank told him that. He just forgot to mention what country he was referring to.

 

[Flopper]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: &#8220;Lies, damn lies, and statistics.&#8221; In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include &#8220;unemployment,&#8221; and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as &#8220;unemployed&#8221; was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those &#8220;Not in the labor force&#8221; are adding to those &#8220;Unemployed,&#8221; then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those &#8220;Not in the labor force&#8221; (though in the age in which most Americans work) and &#8220;Unemployed&#8221; as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

Ok, let's break things down. First, for labor force statistics, we're talking about the Adult Civilian Non-Institutional Population. That means we first exclude those groups that have barriers to entry/exit and work....those under 16, those in prison, those in institutions (mental institutes, nursing homes, etc) and the military.

That gives us an Adult Civilian Non-Institutional Population of 242,784,000 for April, 2012.

Of those, 141,865,000 worked the week of April 8-14 (employed), 12,500,000 did not work but could have accepted a job April 6-14 and did something to get a job March 18-Apr 14.

That leaves 88,419,000 who did not work, and either did not look for work or could not have accepted a job. Source: Table A-3

Let's look further at the Not in the Labor Force. (Table A-38)
82,551,000 said they did NOT want a job, 6,328,000 said they did, BUT....3,285,000 hadn't tried to find work in over a year.

3,042,000 had looked in the last year but not last 4 weeks, though 679,000 said they could not take a job if offered.

That leaves 2,363,000 "Marginally Attached," people who aren't currently trying to get a job, but likely will sometime. 968,000 "gave up" saying they think they wouldn't be hired...reasons include belief in discrimination, lack of skills/training. The rest are for personal reasons that have nothing to do with the Labor Market.

So who exactly of those should be considered objectively unemployed?

That's the question that's seldom asked in political debate but should be. The primary purpose of the unemployment rate in a political discussion is as a comparison tool. Whether you use U3, the normally quoted rate which is a narrow measure of unemployment or U6, the broader measure matters little for comparison purposes. As you can see from the graph below, they track each other quite well with the gap between the two widening during recession and narrowing during economic expansion.

The problem comes in when were're inconsistent, for example using U3 to illustrate low unemployment during one administration, and U6 during another. We should choose one of the measures and stick to it, but that's not going to happen because the primary purpose of most political discussion is to deceive and using the different measures of unemployment is a great tool to do just that.

 

[edthecynic]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

I like how you quote Mark Twain about lies, then go on to lie yourself, particularly about statistics. Counting those that choose not to work and don't need to as unemployed is blatantly false. Your 41.6% number includes, all college students who don't need to work, all mothers who choose not to work, all rich people who don't need to work and choose not too, everyone that retired early, and everyone who is really disabled.

But hey, ya know, we need to tell all those mothers out there that they can't stay home and take care of their kids. Its their civic duty to get off their lazy asses and get a job. That's what your saying right?

You have to understand that to CON$ervoFascists anyone who doesn't work is a "useless eater." There was someone in history who also saw some people as "Useless Eaters" who is the inspiration for all CON$ervoFascism!!!

May 25, 2012
Rush: And I know that 88 million Americans are not working but they're eating, and it's a statistic that worries me.
It's quite telling that 88 million are not working but they're eating.

 

[edthecynic]

BTW, just as I predicted CON$ervoFascists have stopped using Gallup's UE numbers now that he is even lower than the BLS at 8.0%

Good unemployment news makes CON$ervoFascists sick!

Gallup Daily: U.S. Employment

 

[sealybobo]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

I’m noticing republicans suddenly are accepting the unemployment number as real.

 

[Flopper]

Monday, 28 May 2012 10:31

Mark Twain once noted three varieties of lies in public life: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” In the area of macroeconomics and government, Twain could not have been more right. The statistics kept by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics include “unemployment,” and this number counts those Americans who are actively seeking employment. As many commentators have noted, when times are really tough, those Americans who have simply stopped looking for a job drop off the statistics, making it artificially appear that the unemployment rate has dropped.

The nominal unemployment rate is still high, but the real jaw-dropping fact is the number of working-age Americans who are not working. Today that is 100,000,000 Americans out of a total population of about 310,000,000. Demographically, about 80,000,000 Americans are minors and about 40,000,000 are age 65 or older. That leaves approximately 190,000,000 Americans who are adults of working age. About half of those do not have a full-time job.

The situation, according to the very statistics of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, show an increasingly dismal picture, when the number of people who could be working but are not is counted. In April 2011, the number listed in those statistics as “unemployed” was 13.8 million. That number actually dropped in February 2012 to 12.8 million, then to 12.7 million in March and 12.5 million in April. The unemployment rate over those four months also declined: 9.0 percent in April 2011, 8.3 percent in February 2012, 8.2 percent in March 2012, and 8.1 percent in April 2012.

When those “Not in the labor force” are adding to those “Unemployed,” then those who are not working is growing: 99.5 million in April 2011, 100.3 million in February 2012, 100.5 million in March 2012, and 100.9 million in April 2012. When counting both those “Not in the labor force” (though in the age in which most Americans work) and “Unemployed” as a single group, then those who are not working, but are in the age group in which Americans normally work, has remained steady and high: 41.6 percent in April 2011, 41.5 percent in February 2012, 41.5 percent in March 2012, and 41.6 percent in April 2012.

read more The Real Unemployment Rate

I’m noticing republicans suddenly are accepting the unemployment number as real.

Of course they are. U3 is always lower than U6. Both parties quote the statistic that best fits their need at the time. It's the same song, second verse.

There is no way to accurately determine unemployment because unemployment means different things to different people. So economists have come up with different statistics to fit different definitions of unemployment.