The Real Unemployment Rate could be 34%

[Neubarth]

Here, ponder these numbers and tell me what you come up with.

Population of these United States is 310,000,000
Population that is 15 years old or under 60,000,000
Population that is over 68 years old 35,000,000
___________________________________________
Potential Working age population is 215,000,000
From them, subtract the following.
Population that is in prison is 2,300,000
Population that is in military 1,400,000 (Army Navy Air Force Marines)
Disabled working age population 1,300,000 (That is a generous estimate.)
_______________________________________
Available workforce 210,000,000

People employed full time 137,000,000 (from the nefarious DOL and probably an overstatement for effect)

People unemployed or under-employed in the working population 73,000,000 (210 M minus 137 M)

73 M divided by 210 M times 100 for the percentage. (34%) Oh No!

Thus 34% of the working population is unemployed or underemployed.

Even if you were to say that 40 million were college students or seniors in high school or full time housewives or househusbands, you will still have 33 million unemployed.

Colleges conducting their own surveys keep coming up with this 33 million number of people who would be working if only they could find a real job. Many of them are working part time jobs, but you can not support a family on a part time job.

Somehow, I just do not trust the government numbers, especially when they say that less than half of the population is in the workforce. 153 Million versus 310 Million.

 

[eagleseven]

Actually, the government labor force statistics are consistent.

There are roughly 6.2 billion people in the world, and the human labor force is roughly 3 billion.

You are forgetting that the labor force calculation traditionally ignores stay-at-home parents.

US Labor Force Participation Rate (Historical)

The rate is currently at 64.8%.

 

[Neubarth]

You are forgetting that the labor force calculation traditionally ignores stay-at-home parents.

Oh my gosh, you have morphed into Pinko. He always makes up stuff that he says I have said or not included in my presentation and then criticises the reality of the horrible economy as being the fault of people who do not understand that the government statistics are god.

If you read my post, you will see that I did not "forget stay at home parents." I included them in the 40 million college students, house wives and house husbands. That was a very generous estimate at forty million. You should be ashamed at your response.

Pinko lies like that all of the time, every time he posts because he is a pathological liar. I will just assume that you did not read what I wrote before responding.

 

[Dick Tator]

Jesus was a carpenter. His mom was kinda lazy (stay at home mom).

 

[Neubarth]

Jesus was a carpenter. His mom was kinda lazy (stay at home mom).

Actually for 3/4ths of the world, the women who work outside of the home are working in the fields trying to raise enough food to feed the family. I would guess that Mary was active in some communal farm work project.

Where I grew up in Mexico (way south of Puerto Vallarta 1958 - 1959) the community (communal village - ejido _ a form of simple communism) owned the farm land in common. All of the people shared in the work in that farmland. The wives and children also helped. I rode horses or mules out to the fields with my best friends at the age of 11 and 12 and helped hoe weeds from between the rows of corn and beans. I loved that simple life and return to that ejido with frequency. I am usually greeted there as if I was a native Mexican. Some of my childhood friends are still there. Their work was physically hard, but was not stressful.

 

[boedicca]

Somehow, I just do not trust the government numbers, especially when they say that less than half of the population is in the workforce. 153 Million versus 310 Million.

I rely on Shadow Stats instead of the gubmint figures:

Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page

Their figure is @ 22% unemployment.

 

[The Rabbi]

It's too high. We can all agree on that.

The WSJ (maybe it was Heritage.org) had an interesting take. During the 2001 recession we actually experienced MORE job losses than during this recession. Yet the unemployment rate didnt go much above 5%. Why?
Because employers were still creating jobs in the recession, enough to almost offset the losses.
This time around employers are not creating jobs because of the political uncertainty. No one knows what it will cost to hire people or run a business. This adminstration is directly responsible for that, proposing vast new regulations and then leaving them up in the air.
All this will end after November when the GOP retakes Congress and stymies whatever is left of Obama's proposals.

 

[Neubarth]

It's too high. We can all agree on that.

The WSJ (maybe it was Heritage.org) had an interesting take. During the 2001 recession we actually experienced MORE job losses than during this recession. Yet the unemployment rate didnt go much above 5%. Why?
Because employers were still creating jobs in the recession, enough to almost offset the losses.
This time around employers are not creating jobs because of the political uncertainty. No one knows what it will cost to hire people or run a business. This adminstration is directly responsible for that, proposing vast new regulations and then leaving them up in the air.
All this will end after November when the GOP retakes Congress and stymies whatever is left of Obama's proposals.

Actually Rebbi, according to surveys conducted by the University of California, the University of Chicago and the University of North Carolina, unemployment varies between 26 and 30 percent. I believe the 30 percent figure. We all know that the government is lying like hell about the present Depression. There are too many Hoovervilles to be denied.

 

[pinqy]

Actually Rebbi, according to surveys conducted by the University of California, the University of Chicago and the University of North Carolina, unemployment varies between 26 and 30 percent. I believe the 30 percent figure. We all know that the government is lying like hell about the present Depression. There are too many Hoovervilles to be denied.

I've never met anyone interviewed by these surveys, nor have I read any of the results, nor seen any link to any of these surveys. Therefore, by Neubarth's own arguments, I'm justified in saying they don't exist. I think I'm then supposed to go off on unrelated insults and calling him names and wishing violence on him as well.

Odd how he dismisses a survey that's been conducted by the Census since 1941 as non existant because he's never met anyone who's been interviewed, yet he expects people to take his guesses as the "real" rate. And accept his word abut the results of alleged surveys without anyone having the ability to see the actual results, methodology and what they're actually saying. The hypocrisy is amazing.

And he won't rebut with facts, just idiotic insults against me.

 

[eagleseven]

You are forgetting that the labor force calculation traditionally ignores stay-at-home parents.

Oh my gosh, you have morphed into Pinko. He always makes up stuff that he says I have said or not included in my presentation and then criticises the reality of the horrible economy as being the fault of people who do not understand that the government statistics are god.

If you read my post, you will see that I did not "forget stay at home parents." I included them in the 40 million college students, house wives and house husbands. That was a very generous estimate at forty million. You should be ashamed at your response.

Pinko lies like that all of the time, every time he posts because he is a pathological liar. I will just assume that you did not read what I wrote before responding.

Your headline, the 34% number, does not include stay-at-home parents. You mention them below, but yet do not subtract them from your headline number. This is no different than what the media does (cherry-pick numbers for effect).

I agree that the actual unemployment is much higher than the official numbers, but purposefully over-estimating for dramatic effect does us no good.

 

[sparky]

well Neubarth, one can assume anyone who thinks our governance hasn't downplayed this recession is either mortally niaeve, or lives a rather secluded life at this point

so let's say, for the sake of debate here, that your figures are in the ballpark, and they're really playing that card for the sake of market confidence

obviously, the way outta this one is JOBS, plain and simple, agreed?

so what's their plan?

all i'm reading is this jobs bill which is going in partisan circles, and this new 'bigger than nafta' trade agreement they claim is going to create jobs (although it might be Chinese jobs they're talking about)

where's the beef?

 

[Care4all]

Here, ponder these numbers and tell me what you come up with.

Population of these United States is 310,000,000
Population that is 15 years old or under 60,000,000
Population that is over 68 years old 35,000,000
___________________________________________
Potential Working age population is 215,000,000
From them, subtract the following.
Population that is in prison is 2,300,000
Population that is in military 1,400,000 (Army Navy Air Force Marines)
Disabled working age population 1,300,000 (That is a generous estimate.)
_______________________________________
Available workforce 210,000,000

People employed full time 137,000,000 (from the nefarious DOL and probably an overstatement for effect)

People unemployed or under-employed in the working population 73,000,000 (210 M minus 137 M)

73 M divided by 210 M times 100 for the percentage. (34%) Oh No!

Thus 34% of the working population is unemployed or underemployed.

Even if you were to say that 40 million were college students or seniors in high school or full time housewives or househusbands, you will still have 33 million unemployed.

Colleges conducting their own surveys keep coming up with this 33 million number of people who would be working if only they could find a real job. Many of them are working part time jobs, but you can not support a family on a part time job.

Somehow, I just do not trust the government numbers, especially when they say that less than half of the population is in the workforce. 153 Million versus 310 Million.

What would you recommend at this point, to make the unemployment situation better, to get people back to work?

 

[KissMy]

What would you recommend at this point, to make the unemployment situation better, to get people back to work?

They should not have bailed anyone out. They should have let the system crash. The bailed out banks still do not lend to anyone but the US government & the bailed out homeowners are still re-defaulting. Japan tried this 20 years ago & they are still screwed.

Right now people can not make investment decisions or long term plans because we do not know which contracts will be honored or what snap decision the government will make next to destroy your investment or business model.

A swift & deep correction was needed to flush out all the bad debt & over leveraged scam artists. That way everyone would know the actual value of things, who they could trust & where everyone stood. We would not be hanging on every Washington back & forth decision. We would be already recovered out of this fog.

We are now stuck in the Japan Fog of endless prolonged misery & stagflation is rearing it's ugly head.

 

[editec]

Including discouraged workers and under-employed workers, I'd say the real rate of unemployment is about 25%.

The averge number of hours dropped 1/10 of an hour last month.

ASsuming that the number of workers still employed is about 90% of 154 million workers, that means that the decline in hours worked last month amounted to the lose of an additional 7,700 full time jobs.

Hard times, these.

I employ one other person beside myself, and neither of us is really working anything like full time.

If I had the funding I could easily hire five full time people immediately, and five more after that, once the first five got things going.

Damned shame there's not more money.

 

[sparky]

Most small biz could do better if the powers that be simply eased up on them, and allowed for a little less of their interference, maybe a grace period. It's frustrating to have to meet all their parameters for one bona fide hire, yet end up working next to some immigrant who can't even say McDonalds.....

 

[The Rabbi]

What would you recommend at this point, to make the unemployment situation better, to get people back to work?

They should not have bailed anyone out. They should have let the system crash. The bailed out banks still do not lend to anyone but the US government & the bailed out homeowners are still re-defaulting. Japan tried this 20 years ago & they are still screwed.

Right now people can not make investment decisions or long term plans because we do not know which contracts will be honored or what snap decision the government will make next to destroy your investment or business model.

A swift & deep correction was needed to flush out all the bad debt & over leveraged scam artists. That way everyone would know the actual value of things, who they could trust & where everyone stood. We would not be hanging on every Washington back & forth decision. We would be already recovered out of this fog.

We are now stuck in the Japan Fog of endless prolonged misery & stagflation is rearing it's ugly head.

Yup.
The major problem is the uncertainty this administration has cast over everything. What will it cost to hire people? Unknown. Will we be able to enforce this contract? Unknown. What regulation will we have to contend with? Unknown.
With so many unknowns it is no wonder employers wont hire.

 

[editec]

What would you recommend at this point, to make the unemployment situation better, to get people back to work?

They should not have bailed anyone out. They should have let the system crash. The bailed out banks still do not lend to anyone but the US government & the bailed out homeowners are still re-defaulting. Japan tried this 20 years ago & they are still screwed.

Right now people can not make investment decisions or long term plans because we do not know which contracts will be honored or what snap decision the government will make next to destroy your investment or business model.

A swift & deep correction was needed to flush out all the bad debt & over leveraged scam artists. That way everyone would know the actual value of things, who they could trust & where everyone stood. We would not be hanging on every Washington back & forth decision. We would be already recovered out of this fog.

We are now stuck in the Japan Fog of endless prolonged misery & stagflation is rearing it's ugly head.

Yup.
The major problem is the uncertainty this administration has cast over everything. What will it cost to hire people? Unknown. Will we be able to enforce this contract? Unknown. What regulation will we have to contend with? Unknown.
With so many unknowns it is no wonder employers wont hire.

There's merit to that complaint, without doubt.

I even hesitate to pay myself because the additional costs of me paying myself increase the cost to Rosetta by about 40%.

Now I fully understand why much of that additional cost exists, and I even applaude most of it, but still....

The corporation cannot afford to take on new help because of those costs.

 

[The Rabbi]

The corporation cannot afford to take on new help because of those costs.

That's it in a nutshell.

 

[editec]

What would you recommend at this point, to make the unemployment situation better, to get people back to work?

They should not have bailed anyone out. They should have let the system crash. The bailed out banks still do not lend to anyone but the US government & the bailed out homeowners are still re-defaulting. Japan tried this 20 years ago & they are still screwed.

Right now people can not make investment decisions or long term plans because we do not know which contracts will be honored or what snap decision the government will make next to destroy your investment or business model.

A swift & deep correction was needed to flush out all the bad debt & over leveraged scam artists. That way everyone would know the actual value of things, who they could trust & where everyone stood. We would not be hanging on every Washington back & forth decision. We would be already recovered out of this fog.

We are now stuck in the Japan Fog of endless prolonged misery & stagflation is rearing it's ugly head.

Yup.
The major problem is the uncertainty this administration has cast over everything. What will it cost to hire people? Unknown. Will we be able to enforce this contract? Unknown. What regulation will we have to contend with? Unknown.
With so many unknowns it is no wonder employers wont hire.

It's not the UNKNOWNS that are the problem, I think.

Its the KNOWNS that give us pause.

We KNOW god damned well that the economy is in the crapper, that unemployment is dampening the consumer economy, and that the vicious cycle of depression has a while to go even under the happiest projections.

You want to blame Obama as though if somebody else had been elected we wouldn't be in the same boat.

That is, I think, a rather foolishly optomistic theory.

I'm not trying to defend Obama, here, I'm just trying to point out that the problem is bigger than anything any POTUS can solve.

 

[xotoxi]

Here, ponder these numbers and tell me what you come up with.

Population of these United States is 310,000,000
Population that is 15 years old or under 60,000,000
Population that is over 68 years old 35,000,000
___________________________________________
Potential Working age population is 215,000,000
From them, subtract the following.
Population that is in prison is 2,300,000
Population that is in military 1,400,000 (Army Navy Air Force Marines)
Disabled working age population 1,300,000 (That is a generous estimate.)
_______________________________________
Available workforce 210,000,000

People employed full time 137,000,000 (from the nefarious DOL and probably an overstatement for effect)

People unemployed or under-employed in the working population 73,000,000 (210 M minus 137 M)

73 M divided by 210 M times 100 for the percentage. (34%) Oh No!

Thus 34% of the working population is unemployed or underemployed.

Even if you were to say that 40 million were college students or seniors in high school or full time housewives or househusbands, you will still have 33 million unemployed.

Colleges conducting their own surveys keep coming up with this 33 million number of people who would be working if only they could find a real job. Many of them are working part time jobs, but you can not support a family on a part time job.

Somehow, I just do not trust the government numbers, especially when they say that less than half of the population is in the workforce. 153 Million versus 310 Million.

Great!

So would that mean that the unemployment rate in 2007 wasn't 5%, but something closer to 29%?

It's all relative.