The rather large lady is singing louder

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Sep 29, 2010.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Hey olfraud remember way back when when I posted that the Royal Society was reviewing it's GW guide and you said they would review it and come back even stronger? Remember that?

    YOU WERE WRONG!


    Some highlights
    “There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales.”
    “It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future.
    “There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding.”

    Royal Society Bows To Climate Change Sceptics
     
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    Last edited: Sep 29, 2010
  2. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    1# Regional forecasting when your having a hard time trying to forecast or predict global climate within hundred years has little confidence.

    2# Very true. We have a lot to learn and many forcings like low solar output for one and clouds, and other unknowns that could increase or decrease warming. The system is complex as hell. Trying to forecast exactly how much warming with our understanding of the doubling of co2 will cause is very hard indeed. All we know is we will get some warming and the IPCC does not make a exact forecast, but 1.8-5.4c of warming. This is based on the knowledge we have of the forcing of co2 and other factors.

    3# Very true and many times throughout history this has been so. But with our current understanding of things this is what we forecast for the future. Of course we may learn more and get better models and understanding of the workings of our planet. 100 years ago we didn't even know anything about continental movement over our planet or understanding most of our solar system. Of course it changes and likely will...

    Doesn't mean that the green house theory of co2 being a green house gas that traps solar input into the earths climate system and forces any imbalances from getting to space is wrong at all...It just means we learn more.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2010
  3. 2Parties
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    2Parties Senior Member

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    I have no idea what this thread is about.
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Royal Society's climate change guide cuts confusion out of the hard science | Duncan Clark | Environment | guardian.co.uk

    The Royal Society, the UK's leading scientific establishment, today publishes its own layman's guide to the science of climate change, in the hope of countering the confusion and inaccurate claims that continue to surround the topic.

    The new guide – Climate Change: A Summary of the Science – seeks to cut through the confusion by summarising the degree of consensus and depth of understanding surrounding different aspects of the science of global warming caused by human activity.

    The report, written by a panel of prominent scientists and chaired by Professor John Pethica, Royal Society vice president, breaks down the subject into three sections: aspects on which there is "wide agreement", "a wide consensus but continuing debate and discussion" and those which are "not well understood".

    The document entirely supports the mainstream scientific view of man-made climate change as summarised by the UN's climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In previous years, the Royal Society has lent its weight to joint communiqués on climate change issued by leading science academies around the world, and these have even extended to making policy suggestions, such as calling on world leaders to agree emission reductions at the climate change summit held in Copenhagen in December.
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Royal Society's climate change guide cuts confusion out of the hard science | Duncan Clark | Environment | guardian.co.uk

    Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute, described the new guide as "excellent" and "an authoritative summary of the current state of knowledge". However, he stressed concern that two of the Royal Society fellows listed as contributors to the early stages of the report are also involved with Lord Lawson's Global Warming Policy Foundation, which, Ward claims, "campaigns against climate researchers and promotes inaccurate and misleading information about climate change".
     
  6. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Exactly. Such things as the massive methane releases from the Arctic Ocean that are now equal to all the other oceans combined. Such as the release of CO2 and CH4 from the permafrost, particulary the type known as yedoma.

    You see, that uncertainty is a doable edged sword. Thus far, the reality has been worse than the predictions.
     
  7. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Do you have any papers or data that shows the methane being released big time within the arctic?
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

    Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated
    ScienceDaily (Mar. 5, 2010) — A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


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    The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

    "The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Methane bubbling out of Arctic Ocean – but is it new? - environment - 04 March 2010 - New Scientist

    Larry Smith of the University of California, Los Angeles, says the newly discovered emissions from the continental shelf appear to be "one of the largest known methane sources of the northern hemisphere".

    Until now, stores of methane frozen in Arctic water and land appeared safe. But recent studies by Sergey Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in Russia and others have shown that emissions from thawing peat bogs in western Siberia are growing. The latest study adds evidence that the gas is slowly leaking from its frozen Arctic vaults.

    Researchers have speculated that the Siberian emissions could explain an unexpected rise in concentrations of methane in the atmosphere, globally, over the past three years.

    However, it is not clear whether the leakage is a new phenomenon. Graham Westbrook of the University of Birmingham, UK, reported 250 submarine methane hotspots off the Arctic islands of Svalbard last year, but did not determine whether they were affecting the atmosphere above. "The subsea permafrost has been degrading and leaking methane beneath for thousands of years," he told New Scientist.
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    AAAS - AAAS News Release - "SCIENCE: Methane Gas Release from Arctic Permafrost is Far Larger Than Expected"

    Science: Methane Gas Release from Arctic Permafrost is Far Larger Than Expected
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    Ancient permafrost submerged in the Arctic Ocean is releasing methane gas into the atmosphere at rates comparable to previous estimates for all the world’s oceans combined, researchers say. This underwater permafrost represents a large but previously overlooked source of methane, and experts say that similar but more widespread emissions of the gas could have dramatic effects on global warming in the future.

    Listen to Robert Frederick's Science Podcast interview with study author Natalia Shakhova.

    Fluxes of CH4 venting to the atmosphere over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

    View the full-size image.

    [Image courtesy of and © Science/AAAS]
    The discovery creates “an urgent need” for further research to understand the methane release and its possible impact, researchers say in the new issue of Science.

    In order to make this discovery, Natalia Shakhova from the Russian Academy of Sciences, along with colleagues from the University of Alaska and Stockholm University, traveled on Russian ice-breaker ships each year from 2003 to 2008 to survey the waters above the remote East Siberian Arctic Shelf; they also made one helicopter survey and an over-ice winter expedition to the region. After more than 5000 painstaking observations at sea, the researchers found that 80% of the bottom water and more than 50% of the surface water over that continental shelf is supersaturated with methane originating from the permafrost below.
     

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