The rather large lady is singing louder

[westwall]

Hey olfraud remember way back when when I posted that the Royal Society was reviewing it's GW guide and you said they would review it and come back even stronger? Remember that?

YOU WERE WRONG!


Some highlights
“There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales.”
“It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future.
“There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding.”

Royal Society Bows To Climate Change Sceptics

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hey olfraud remember way back when when I posted that the Royal Society was reviewing it's GW guide and you said they would review it and come back even stronger? Remember that?

YOU WERE WRONG!


Some highlights
“There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales.”
“It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future.
“There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding.”

Royal Society Bows To Climate Change Sceptics

1# Regional forecasting when your having a hard time trying to forecast or predict global climate within hundred years has little confidence.

2# Very true. We have a lot to learn and many forcings like low solar output for one and clouds, and other unknowns that could increase or decrease warming. The system is complex as hell. Trying to forecast exactly how much warming with our understanding of the doubling of co2 will cause is very hard indeed. All we know is we will get some warming and the IPCC does not make a exact forecast, but 1.8-5.4c of warming. This is based on the knowledge we have of the forcing of co2 and other factors.

3# Very true and many times throughout history this has been so. But with our current understanding of things this is what we forecast for the future. Of course we may learn more and get better models and understanding of the workings of our planet. 100 years ago we didn't even know anything about continental movement over our planet or understanding most of our solar system. Of course it changes and likely will...

Doesn't mean that the green house theory of co2 being a green house gas that traps solar input into the earths climate system and forces any imbalances from getting to space is wrong at all...It just means we learn more.

 

[2Parties]

I have no idea what this thread is about.

 

[Old Rocks]

Royal Society's climate change guide cuts confusion out of the hard science | Duncan Clark | Environment | guardian.co.uk

The Royal Society, the UK's leading scientific establishment, today publishes its own layman's guide to the science of climate change, in the hope of countering the confusion and inaccurate claims that continue to surround the topic.

The new guide – Climate Change: A Summary of the Science – seeks to cut through the confusion by summarising the degree of consensus and depth of understanding surrounding different aspects of the science of global warming caused by human activity.

The report, written by a panel of prominent scientists and chaired by Professor John Pethica, Royal Society vice president, breaks down the subject into three sections: aspects on which there is "wide agreement", "a wide consensus but continuing debate and discussion" and those which are "not well understood".

The document entirely supports the mainstream scientific view of man-made climate change as summarised by the UN's climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In previous years, the Royal Society has lent its weight to joint communiqués on climate change issued by leading science academies around the world, and these have even extended to making policy suggestions, such as calling on world leaders to agree emission reductions at the climate change summit held in Copenhagen in December.

 

[Old Rocks]

Royal Society's climate change guide cuts confusion out of the hard science | Duncan Clark | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute, described the new guide as "excellent" and "an authoritative summary of the current state of knowledge". However, he stressed concern that two of the Royal Society fellows listed as contributors to the early stages of the report are also involved with Lord Lawson's Global Warming Policy Foundation, which, Ward claims, "campaigns against climate researchers and promotes inaccurate and misleading information about climate change".

 

[Old Rocks]

Hey olfraud remember way back when when I posted that the Royal Society was reviewing it's GW guide and you said they would review it and come back even stronger? Remember that?

YOU WERE WRONG!


Some highlights
“There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales.”

Absolutely, we do not know enough to make regional predicitons. The continental predictions have been accurate.

“It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future.

Seems that we have been underestimating the effects of just the little warming that has already occured. We simply do not have enough information to state exactly how much it will warm, only that it will.

“There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding.”

Royal Society Bows To Climate Change Sceptics

Exactly. Such things as the massive methane releases from the Arctic Ocean that are now equal to all the other oceans combined. Such as the release of CO2 and CH4 from the permafrost, particulary the type known as yedoma.

You see, that uncertainty is a doable edged sword. Thus far, the reality has been worse than the predictions.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hey olfraud remember way back when when I posted that the Royal Society was reviewing it's GW guide and you said they would review it and come back even stronger? Remember that?

YOU WERE WRONG!


Some highlights
“There is little confidence in specific projections of future regional climate change, except at continental scales.”

Absolutely, we do not know enough to make regional predicitons. The continental predictions have been accurate.

“It is not possible to determine exactly how much the Earth will warm or exactly how the climate will change in the future.

Seems that we have been underestimating the effects of just the little warming that has already occured. We simply do not have enough information to state exactly how much it will warm, only that it will.

“There remains the possibility that hitherto unknown aspects of the climate and climate change could emerge and lead to significant modifications in our understanding.”

Royal Society Bows To Climate Change Sceptics

Exactly. Such things as the massive methane releases from the Arctic Ocean that are now equal to all the other oceans combined. Such as the release of CO2 and CH4 from the permafrost, particulary the type known as yedoma.

You see, that uncertainty is a doable edged sword. Thus far, the reality has been worse than the predictions.

Do you have any papers or data that shows the methane being released big time within the arctic?

 

[Old Rocks]

Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated
ScienceDaily (Mar. 5, 2010) — A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

 

[Old Rocks]

Methane bubbling out of Arctic Ocean – but is it new? - environment - 04 March 2010 - New Scientist

Larry Smith of the University of California, Los Angeles, says the newly discovered emissions from the continental shelf appear to be "one of the largest known methane sources of the northern hemisphere".

Until now, stores of methane frozen in Arctic water and land appeared safe. But recent studies by Sergey Kirpotin at Tomsk State University in Russia and others have shown that emissions from thawing peat bogs in western Siberia are growing. The latest study adds evidence that the gas is slowly leaking from its frozen Arctic vaults.

Researchers have speculated that the Siberian emissions could explain an unexpected rise in concentrations of methane in the atmosphere, globally, over the past three years.

However, it is not clear whether the leakage is a new phenomenon. Graham Westbrook of the University of Birmingham, UK, reported 250 submarine methane hotspots off the Arctic islands of Svalbard last year, but did not determine whether they were affecting the atmosphere above. "The subsea permafrost has been degrading and leaking methane beneath for thousands of years," he told New Scientist.

 

[Old Rocks]

AAAS - AAAS News Release - "SCIENCE: Methane Gas Release from Arctic Permafrost is Far Larger Than Expected"

Science: Methane Gas Release from Arctic Permafrost is Far Larger Than Expected
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Ancient permafrost submerged in the Arctic Ocean is releasing methane gas into the atmosphere at rates comparable to previous estimates for all the world’s oceans combined, researchers say. This underwater permafrost represents a large but previously overlooked source of methane, and experts say that similar but more widespread emissions of the gas could have dramatic effects on global warming in the future.

Listen to Robert Frederick's Science Podcast interview with study author Natalia Shakhova.

Fluxes of CH4 venting to the atmosphere over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

View the full-size image.

[Image courtesy of and © Science/AAAS]
The discovery creates “an urgent need” for further research to understand the methane release and its possible impact, researchers say in the new issue of Science.

In order to make this discovery, Natalia Shakhova from the Russian Academy of Sciences, along with colleagues from the University of Alaska and Stockholm University, traveled on Russian ice-breaker ships each year from 2003 to 2008 to survey the waters above the remote East Siberian Arctic Shelf; they also made one helicopter survey and an over-ice winter expedition to the region. After more than 5000 painstaking observations at sea, the researchers found that 80% of the bottom water and more than 50% of the surface water over that continental shelf is supersaturated with methane originating from the permafrost below.

 

[Old Rocks]

AAAS - AAAS News Release - "SCIENCE: Methane Gas Release from Arctic Permafrost is Far Larger Than Expected"

Methane from ice-rich permafrost
In Siberia, a special type of permafrost called yedoma covers an area of about one million square kilometres – three times the size of Norway. Yedoma formed in areas that were not ice-covered during the last Ice Age, and may be several tens of metres thick. It contains 2–3% organic material and 50–90% ice. Thawing yedoma forms shallow thaw lakes where methane bubbles to the surface as the organic material breaks down. Walter et al (2006) measured methane emissions and changes in the number and size of thaw lakes, and concluded that methane emissions from a study area of yedoma had risen by 58% since 1974, and that the total area of thaw lakes had risen by 14.7%

 

[ScienceRocks]

Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated
ScienceDaily (Mar. 5, 2010) — A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

Damn,

It is not the co2 that should scare people, but the methane being 72 times more potent as a green house gas that should scare the hell out of people because it could very well warm us up very fast and then turns into co2. Co2 is weak, but it will likely unlock something stronger.

Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas. Compared with carbon dioxide, it has a high global warming potential of 72 (calculated over a period of 20 years) or 25 (for a time period of 100 years).[2] Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life of seven years[citation needed]. Methane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Old Rocks]

ScienceDirect - Journal of Marine Systems : Methane release and coastal environment in the East Siberian Arctic shelf

Methane release and coastal environment in the East Siberian Arctic shelf


References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.


N. Shakhova, a, b, and I. Semiletova, b

aInternational Arctic Research Center, University Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Dr., P.O. Box 757335, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA

bPacific Oceanological Institution Far-East Branch of Russian Academy of Science, 43 Baltic Street, Vladivostok, 690041 Russia

Received 20 November 2005; accepted 22 June 2006. Available online 13 October 2006.

Abstract
In this paper we present 2 years of data obtained during the late summer period (September 2003 and September 2004) for the East Siberian Arctic shelf (ESAS). According to our data, the surface layer of shelf water was supersaturated up to 2500% relative to the present average atmospheric methane content of 1.85 ppm, pointing to the rivers as a strong source of dissolved methane which comes from watersheds which are underlain with permafrost. Anomalously high concentrations (up to 154 nM or 4400% supersaturation) of dissolved methane in the bottom layer of shelf water at a few sites suggest that the bottom layer is somehow affected by near-bottom sources. The net flux of methane from this area of the East Siberian Arctic shelf can reach up to 13.7 × 104 g CH4 km− 2 from plume areas during the period of ice free water, and thus is in the upper range of the estimated global marine methane release. Ongoing environmental change might affect the methane marine cycle since significant changes in the thermal regime of bottom sediments within a few sites were registered. Correlation between calculated methane storage within the water column and both integrated salinity values (r = 0.61) and integrated values of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (r = 0.62) suggest that higher concentrations of dissolved methane were mostly derived from the marine environment, likely due to in-situ production or release from decaying submarine gas hydrates deposits. The calculated late summer potential methane emissions tend to vary from year to year, reflecting most likely the effect of changing hydrological and meteorological conditions (temperature, wind) on the ESAS rather than riverine export of dissolved methane. We point out additional sources of methane in this region such as submarine taliks, ice complex retreat, submarine permafrost itself and decaying gas hydrates deposits.

.................................................................................................................................
Since this article was written, 2005, there has been an increase in the CH4 that has been detected in this area. And CH4 leaks detected in other areas of the Arctic. As well as an unexplained jump in the amount of CH4 in the atmosphere, worldwide.

 

[Old Rocks]

Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated
ScienceDaily (Mar. 5, 2010) — A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

Damn,

It is not the co2 that should scare people, but the methane being 72 times more potent as a green house gas that should scare the hell out of people because it could very well warm us up very fast and then turns into co2. Co2 is weak, but it will likely unlock something stronger.

Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas. Compared with carbon dioxide, it has a high global warming potential of 72 (calculated over a period of 20 years) or 25 (for a time period of 100 years).[2] Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life of seven years[citation needed]. Methane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You now see what those of us who have followed this story for decades fear. Over a period of hundreds of years, we can handle a warming. Over a period of decades, or even a decade, it will become an extinction event.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The abundance of methane in the Earth's atmosphere in 1998 was 1745 parts per billion (ppb), up from 700 ppb in 1750. By 2008, however, global methane levels, which had stayed mostly flat since 1998, had risen to 1,800 ppb[5]. By 2010, methane levels, at least in the arctic, were measured at 1850 ppb, a level scientists described as being higher than at any time in the previous 400,000 years.[6] (Historically, methane concentrations in the world's atmosphere have ranged between 300 and 400 ppb during glacial periods commonly known as ice ages, and between 600 to 700 ppb during the warm interglacial periods).

More from the wiki page on methane.

What is the forcing on the climate for methane?

 

[westwall]

Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated
ScienceDaily (Mar. 5, 2010) — A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

Damn,

It is not the co2 that should scare people, but the methane being 72 times more potent as a green house gas that should scare the hell out of people because it could very well warm us up very fast and then turns into co2. Co2 is weak, but it will likely unlock something stronger.

Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas. Compared with carbon dioxide, it has a high global warming potential of 72 (calculated over a period of 20 years) or 25 (for a time period of 100 years).[2] Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life of seven years[citation needed]. Methane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yet more hyperbole designed to panic the savages.

One excerpt.

Science 6 August 2010:
Vol. 329. no. 5992, pp. 620 - 621
DOI: 10.1126/science.329.5992.620
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

News Focus
Climate Change:
'Arctic Armageddon' Needs More Science, Less Hype
Richard A. Kerr
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide, and the ongoing global warming driven by carbon dioxide will inevitably force it out of its frozen reservoirs and into the atmosphere to amplify the warming. Such an amplifying feedback may have operated in the past, with devastating effects. If the modern version is anything like past episodes, two scientists warned earlier this year, it could mean that "far from the Arctic, crops could fail and nations crumble." Yet, with bubbles of methane streaming from the warming Arctic sea floor and deteriorating permafrost, many scientists are trying to send a more balanced message. The threat of global warming amplifying itself by triggering massive methane releases is real and may already be under way, providing plenty of fodder for scary headlines. But what researchers understand about the threat points to a less malevolent, more protracted process.



'Arctic Armageddon' Needs More Science, Less Hype -- Kerr 329 (5992): 620 -- Science


World Climate Report The Ups and Downs of Methane

 

[Old Rocks]

Methane releases from Arctic shelf may be much larger and faster than anticipated

Methane Releases from Arctic Shelf May Be Much Larger and Faster Than Anticipated
ScienceDaily (Mar. 5, 2010) — A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor Semiletov.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is perforated and is leaking large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

Damn,

It is not the co2 that should scare people, but the methane being 72 times more potent as a green house gas that should scare the hell out of people because it could very well warm us up very fast and then turns into co2. Co2 is weak, but it will likely unlock something stronger.

Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas. Compared with carbon dioxide, it has a high global warming potential of 72 (calculated over a period of 20 years) or 25 (for a time period of 100 years).[2] Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life of seven years[citation needed]. Methane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yet more hyperbole designed to panic the savages.

One excerpt.

Science 6 August 2010:
Vol. 329. no. 5992, pp. 620 - 621
DOI: 10.1126/science.329.5992.620
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

News Focus
Climate Change:
'Arctic Armageddon' Needs More Science, Less Hype
Richard A. Kerr
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide, and the ongoing global warming driven by carbon dioxide will inevitably force it out of its frozen reservoirs and into the atmosphere to amplify the warming. Such an amplifying feedback may have operated in the past, with devastating effects. If the modern version is anything like past episodes, two scientists warned earlier this year, it could mean that "far from the Arctic, crops could fail and nations crumble." Yet, with bubbles of methane streaming from the warming Arctic sea floor and deteriorating permafrost, many scientists are trying to send a more balanced message. The threat of global warming amplifying itself by triggering massive methane releases is real and may already be under way, providing plenty of fodder for scary headlines. But what researchers understand about the threat points to a less malevolent, more protracted process.



'Arctic Armageddon' Needs More Science, Less Hype -- Kerr 329 (5992): 620 -- Science


World Climate Report The Ups and Downs of Methane

There is no real understanding of where the tipping point is at concerning a feedback that would start a cascading effect leading to the outgassing of the oceans methane clathrates.

Now you may find comfort in that we are presently ignorant as to where we are on the path to this effect, but I find that ignorance disturbing. Kind of like driving at high speed on a fog bound highway, knowing there is a bridge out ahead, but not knowing how far ahead.

We know that this has happened multiple times in the past, creating extinction events.

 

[Old Rocks]

The abundance of methane in the Earth's atmosphere in 1998 was 1745 parts per billion (ppb), up from 700 ppb in 1750. By 2008, however, global methane levels, which had stayed mostly flat since 1998, had risen to 1,800 ppb[5]. By 2010, methane levels, at least in the arctic, were measured at 1850 ppb, a level scientists described as being higher than at any time in the previous 400,000 years.[6] (Historically, methane concentrations in the world's atmosphere have ranged between 300 and 400 ppb during glacial periods commonly known as ice ages, and between 600 to 700 ppb during the warm interglacial periods).

More from the wiki page on methane.

What is the forcing on the climate for methane?

Here is a paper from Harvard that covers the normal forcings of CH4

https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~wsoon/myownPapers-d/Soon07-Nov8-PGEO-28n02_097-125-Soon.pdf

 

[westwall]

Damn,

It is not the co2 that should scare people, but the methane being 72 times more potent as a green house gas that should scare the hell out of people because it could very well warm us up very fast and then turns into co2. Co2 is weak, but it will likely unlock something stronger.

Methane is a relatively potent greenhouse gas. Compared with carbon dioxide, it has a high global warming potential of 72 (calculated over a period of 20 years) or 25 (for a time period of 100 years).[2] Methane in the atmosphere is eventually oxidized, producing carbon dioxide and water. As a result, methane in the atmosphere has a half life of seven years[citation needed]. Methane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yet more hyperbole designed to panic the savages.

One excerpt.

Science 6 August 2010:
Vol. 329. no. 5992, pp. 620 - 621
DOI: 10.1126/science.329.5992.620
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

News Focus
Climate Change:
'Arctic Armageddon' Needs More Science, Less Hype
Richard A. Kerr
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide, and the ongoing global warming driven by carbon dioxide will inevitably force it out of its frozen reservoirs and into the atmosphere to amplify the warming. Such an amplifying feedback may have operated in the past, with devastating effects. If the modern version is anything like past episodes, two scientists warned earlier this year, it could mean that "far from the Arctic, crops could fail and nations crumble." Yet, with bubbles of methane streaming from the warming Arctic sea floor and deteriorating permafrost, many scientists are trying to send a more balanced message. The threat of global warming amplifying itself by triggering massive methane releases is real and may already be under way, providing plenty of fodder for scary headlines. But what researchers understand about the threat points to a less malevolent, more protracted process.



'Arctic Armageddon' Needs More Science, Less Hype -- Kerr 329 (5992): 620 -- Science


World Climate Report The Ups and Downs of Methane

There is no real understanding of where the tipping point is at concerning a feedback that would start a cascading effect leading to the outgassing of the oceans methane clathrates.

Now you may find comfort in that we are presently ignorant as to where we are on the path to this effect, but I find that ignorance disturbing. Kind of like driving at high speed on a fog bound highway, knowing there is a bridge out ahead, but not knowing how far ahead.

We know that this has happened multiple times in the past, creating extinction events.

You really need to stop using the term "tipping point". You guys have been claiming the tipping point is near like the little boy who cried wolf for way too long. That is one of the many reasons why you alarmists have lost the argument. The people rightly no longer listen to you because you have nothing to say.

Your continued assertions that runaway GW caused mass extinctions is not supported by fact. It is quite simply untrue, but keep trying, you'll get a few gullible ones but the people who can think are no longer troubled by your blathering.

 

[Old Rocks]

Now back to the original subject, the policy statement from the Royal Society.

Climate Change: A Summary of the Science - Publications - The Royal Society

Introduction
1 Changes in climate have significant implications for present lives, for future generations
and for ecosystems on which humanity depends. Consequently, climate change has
been and continues to be the subject of intensive scientific research and public debate.

2 There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has
been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes
in land use, including agriculture and deforestation. The size of future temperature
increases and other aspects of climate change, especially at the regional scale, are still
subject to uncertainty. Nevertheless, the risks associated with some of these changes
are substantial. It is important that decision makers have access to climate science of
the highest quality, and can take account of its findings in formulating appropriate
responses.

3 In view of the ongoing public and political debates about climate change, the aim of this
document is to summarise the current scientific evidence on climate change and its
drivers. It lays out clearly where the science is well established, where there is wide
consensus but continuing debate, and where there remains substantial uncertainty. The
impacts of climate change, as distinct from the causes, are not considered here. This
document draws upon recent evidence and builds on the Fourth Assessment Report of
Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in
2007, which is the most comprehensive source of climate science and its uncertainties.